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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
No ending date, set to: default date 12 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2015 ARAO Agrimet AURORA OR Lat45.2817 Long-122.7503 Elev:141
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 41.40 28.40 0.00 0.03 0.0 * START *
1 2 40.30 24.80 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 41.50 35.20 0.06 0.06 0.1
1 4 53.50 39.60 0.16 5.74 5.8
1 5 56.00 43.90 0.00 8.95 14.8
1 6 50.50 40.40 0.01 4.51 19.3
1 7 41.60 35.20 0.01 0.08 19.4
1 8 41.90 34.50 0.01 0.13 19.5
1 9 47.30 34.50 0.00 1.99 21.5
1 10 43.00 35.70 0.05 0.46 22.0
1 11 46.80 42.90 0.14 3.85 25.8
1 12 50.40 42.20 0.03 5.30 31.1
1 13 52.20 35.80 0.00 4.29 35.4
1 14 50.50 30.60 0.00 2.95 38.3
1 15 43.80 30.90 0.41 0.57 38.9
1 16 56.30 39.90 0.30 7.22 46.1
1 17 60.00 39.70 1.50 8.99 55.1
1 18 58.70 48.30 0.26 12.50 67.6
1 19 54.50 42.20 0.03 7.35 75.0
1 20 52.10 37.70 0.00 4.59 79.5
1 21 47.10 29.90 0.01 1.60 81.2
1 22 49.70 40.40 0.00 4.11 85.3
1 23 50.80 42.00 0.06 5.40 90.7
1 24 62.70 47.80 0.00 14.25 104.9
1 25 49.80 43.40 0.01 5.60 110.5
1 26 46.70 41.10 0.00 2.90 113.4
1 27 50.60 42.70 0.04 5.65 119.1
1 28 56.60 47.80 0.03 11.20 130.3
1 29 55.40 42.80 0.00 8.10 138.4
1 30 54.80 32.00 0.00 4.91 143.3
1 31 51.80 29.80 0.00 3.40 146.7
2 1 46.90 37.40 0.29 2.13 148.8
2 2 58.70 41.70 0.63 9.20 158.0
2 3 51.30 41.50 0.12 5.40 163.4
2 4 52.40 45.80 0.08 8.10 171.5
2 5 56.60 45.80 0.69 10.20 181.7
2 6 56.90 50.50 1.04 12.70 194.4
2 7 57.70 50.50 0.82 13.10 207.5
2 8 59.40 45.50 0.10 11.45 219.0
2 9 53.60 48.30 0.62 9.95 228.9
2 10 55.30 48.10 0.04 10.70 239.6
2 11 52.30 39.80 0.00 5.21 244.8
2 12 54.90 40.70 0.01 6.82 251.6
2 13 46.70 39.50 0.01 2.40 254.0
2 14 60.20 41.00 0.01 9.60 263.6
2 15 64.20 42.10 0.00 12.15 275.8
2 16 64.20 49.60 0.00 15.90 291.7
2 17 65.40 36.00 0.00 10.59 302.3
2 18 57.80 35.50 0.00 6.84 309.1
2 19 58.30 46.00 0.00 11.15 320.3
2 20 57.20 42.40 0.02 8.80 329.1
2 21 60.10 42.20 0.00 10.15 339.2
2 22 57.40 41.20 0.00 8.30 347.5
2 23 60.50 39.50 0.00 9.17 356.7
2 24 58.60 28.80 0.00 6.17 362.9
2 25 52.10 40.70 0.00 5.42 368.3
2 26 53.80 47.10 0.06 9.45 377.7
2 27 53.60 45.10 0.19 8.35 386.1
2 28 56.70 40.00 0.00 7.45 393.5
3 1 57.20 31.80 0.00 5.95 399.5
3 2 56.60 37.70 0.02 6.75 406.2
3 3 56.70 31.00 0.00 5.62 411.8
3 4 59.70 29.10 0.00 6.69 418.5
3 5 61.40 30.00 0.00 7.57 426.1
3 6 66.90 33.20 0.00 10.68 436.8
3 7 68.30 34.90 0.00 11.73 448.5
3 8 70.70 33.50 0.00 12.56 461.1
3 9 68.30 36.70 0.00 12.18 473.3
3 10 62.10 39.80 0.00 10.07 483.3
3 11 58.40 50.30 0.19 13.35 496.7
3 12 67.60 49.10 0.01 17.35 514.0
3 13 64.00 45.50 0.00 13.75 527.8
3 14 58.70 51.80 1.63 14.25 542.0
3 15 61.50 47.20 1.48 13.35 555.4
3 16 62.10 37.20 0.00 9.29 564.7
3 17 58.10 41.10 0.04 8.60 573.3
3 18 63.10 45.20 0.01 13.15 586.4
3 19 66.10 38.50 0.00 11.62 598.0
3 20 63.40 42.00 0.33 11.70 609.7
3 21 59.10 44.50 0.04 10.80 620.5
3 22 56.90 44.30 0.10 9.60 630.1
3 23 53.80 42.10 0.52 6.95 637.1
3 24 57.50 44.70 0.09 10.10 647.2
3 25 62.10 48.80 0.14 14.45 661.6
3 26 73.90 48.80 0.01 20.35 682.0
3 27 67.30 43.40 0.00 14.35 696.3
3 28 60.60 48.40 0.00 13.50 709.8
3 29 67.60 41.40 0.00 13.50 723.3
3 30 66.40 40.20 0.00 12.36 735.7
3 31 55.20 44.50 0.23 8.85 744.5
4 1 53.00 40.10 0.10 5.65 750.2
4 2 57.40 42.20 0.03 8.80 759.0
4 3 52.40 34.10 0.16 4.13 763.1
4 4 56.80 37.50 0.01 6.79 769.9
4 5 55.90 36.00 0.19 6.04 776.0
4 6 56.80 36.50 0.04 6.57 782.5
4 7 60.40 43.60 0.04 11.00 793.5
4 8 58.90 47.20 0.10 12.05 805.6
4 9 65.00 40.90 0.00 11.95 817.5
4 10 60.30 37.80 0.06 8.57 826.1
4 11 56.70 42.50 0.23 8.60 834.7
4 12 59.00 39.30 0.00 8.36 843.1
4 13 55.20 39.50 0.50 6.55 849.6
4 14 51.80 38.00 0.19 4.51 854.1 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 15 58.70 33.10 0.00 6.83 860.9
4 16 72.70 39.20 0.00 15.13 876.1
4 17 74.90 40.20 0.00 16.60 892.7
4 18 77.50 39.90 0.00 17.78 910.5
4 19 77.70 43.70 0.00 19.70 930.2
4 20 80.20 44.60 0.00 21.40 951.6 Peak female adult emergence
4 21 63.00 45.80 0.00 13.40 965.0
4 22 60.80 40.80 0.00 9.81 974.8
4 23 54.90 38.40 0.08 6.10 980.9
4 24 54.70 45.20 0.41 8.95 989.8
4 25 59.90 44.80 0.05 11.35 1001.2 Peak egg laying
4 26 59.60 37.50 0.05 8.15 1009.3
4 27 83.20 49.40 0.00 25.30 1034.6
4 28 63.90 50.00 0.05 15.95 1050.6
4 29 62.90 39.20 0.01 10.26 1060.8
4 30 70.50 40.50 0.00 14.53 1075.3
5 1 73.80 45.60 0.00 18.70 1094.0
5 2 70.90 46.80 0.00 17.85 1111.9
5 3 74.20 40.10 0.00 16.21 1128.1
5 4 64.20 43.70 0.00 12.95 1141.1
5 5 62.00 44.40 0.00 12.20 1153.3
5 6 63.20 41.90 0.03 11.55 1164.8
5 7 71.30 39.20 0.00 14.43 1179.2
5 8 80.60 42.20 0.00 20.40 1199.6
5 9 82.60 45.40 0.00 23.00 1222.6
5 10 70.20 49.20 0.00 18.70 1241.3
5 11 59.60 49.60 0.45 13.60 1254.9
5 12 55.80 48.10 0.23 10.95 1265.9
5 13 65.20 48.90 0.02 16.05 1281.9 Peak egg hatch
5 14 71.00 48.50 0.00 18.75 1300.7
5 15 60.90 52.20 0.00 15.55 1316.2
5 16 58.90 52.30 0.00 14.60 1330.8
5 17 69.60 52.80 0.00 20.20 1351.0
5 18 76.70 49.90 0.31 22.30 1373.3
5 19 63.90 54.10 0.00 18.00 1391.3
5 20 70.60 55.50 0.00 22.05 1413.4
5 21 72.90 56.40 0.00 23.65 1437.0
5 22 58.70 53.90 0.27 15.30 1452.3
5 23 62.50 52.50 0.02 16.50 1468.8
5 24 66.50 53.60 0.00 19.05 1487.9
5 25 68.00 52.80 0.00 19.40 1507.3
5 26 70.10 54.40 0.00 21.25 1528.5
5 27 78.00 49.00 0.00 22.50 1551.0
5 28 85.30 53.00 0.00 28.15 1579.2
5 29 81.80 56.00 0.00 27.90 1607.1
5 30 78.00 52.80 0.00 24.40 1631.5
5 31 86.10 58.50 0.00 31.30 1662.8
6 1 62.50 53.90 0.21 17.20 1680.0
6 2 61.80 54.00 0.12 16.90 1696.9
6 3 63.90 54.40 0.07 18.15 1715.0
6 4 73.20 52.00 0.00 21.60 1736.6
6 5 86.60 53.60 0.00 29.10 1765.7
6 6 89.40 55.30 0.00 31.35 1797.1
6 7 90.60 56.90 0.00 32.75 1829.8
6 8 93.80 58.50 0.00 35.15 1865.0
6 9 90.10 56.80 0.00 32.45 1897.4
6 10 80.70 50.10 0.00 24.40 1921.8
6 11 81.40 49.90 0.00 24.65 1946.5
6 12 74.90 52.70 0.00 22.80 1969.3
6 13 76.80 44.90 0.00 19.85 1989.1
6 14 87.10 49.90 0.00 27.50 2016.6
6 15 84.40 53.00 0.00 27.70 2044.3
6 16 78.40 48.20 0.00 22.30 2066.6
6 17 81.00 49.30 0.00 24.15 2090.8 Peak in density large larvae
6 18 82.00 59.20 0.00 29.60 2120.4
6 19 76.40 56.50 0.00 25.45 2145.8
6 20 80.30 52.50 0.00 25.40 2171.2
6 21 80.90 56.40 0.00 27.65 2198.9
6 22 78.50 49.70 0.00 23.10 2222.0
6 23 82.70 52.10 0.00 26.40 2248.4
6 24 84.70 56.90 0.00 29.80 2278.2
6 25 91.00 56.90 0.00 32.95 2311.1
6 26 95.40 61.60 0.00 37.50 2348.6
6 27 91.20 68.40 0.00 38.80 2387.4 Vx
6 28 83.60 66.30 0.00 33.95 2421.4
6 29 90.40 62.00 0.00 35.20 2456.6
6 30 92.20 59.80 0.00 35.00 2491.6
7 1 95.40 57.90 0.00 35.65 2527.2
7 2 96.90 60.20 0.00 37.55 2564.8
7 3 95.60 60.70 0.00 37.15 2601.9
7 4 93.70 59.70 0.00 35.70 2637.6
7 5 93.90 60.70 0.00 36.30 2673.9
7 6 89.50 57.10 0.00 32.30 2706.2
7 7 87.70 55.40 0.00 30.55 2736.8
7 8 90.40 57.00 0.00 32.70 2769.5
7 9 85.20 59.80 0.00 31.50 2801.0
7 10 77.30 60.30 0.00 27.80 2828.8
7 11 71.80 63.00 0.00 26.40 2855.2
7 12 82.10 60.90 0.00 30.50 2885.7
7 13 80.90 62.70 0.01 30.80 2916.5
7 14 83.40 57.60 0.00 29.50 2946.0
7 15 82.20 54.70 0.00 27.45 2973.4
7 16 77.70 61.30 0.00 28.50 3001.9
7 17 86.90 50.30 0.00 27.60 3029.5
7 18 96.70 59.00 0.00 36.85 3066.4
7 19 93.80 59.80 0.00 35.80 3102.2
7 20 87.70 56.50 0.00 31.10 3133.3
7 21 75.70 57.80 0.00 25.75 3159.0
7 22 72.10 53.10 0.00 21.60 3180.6
7 23 80.30 56.40 0.00 27.35 3208.0
7 24 83.20 52.40 0.00 26.80 3234.8
7 25 68.60 61.60 0.13 24.10 3258.9
7 26 72.70 55.60 0.03 23.15 3282.0
7 27 76.30 51.80 0.00 23.05 3305.1
7 28 85.90 52.80 0.00 28.35 3333.4
7 29 97.60 59.90 0.00 37.75 3371.2
7 30 103.10 59.70 0.00 40.40 3411.6
7 31 100.30 60.10 0.00 39.20 3450.8
8 1 99.40 55.40 0.00 36.40 3487.2
8 2 81.80 60.70 0.00 30.25 3517.4
8 3 83.10 63.10 0.00 32.10 3549.5
8 4 83.60 55.80 0.00 28.70 3578.2
8 5 79.20 51.60 0.00 24.40 3602.6
8 6 80.20 50.80 0.00 24.50 3627.1
8 7 87.20 53.30 0.00 29.25 3656.4
8 8 79.70 56.20 0.00 26.95 3683.3
8 9 83.80 62.30 0.00 32.05 3715.4
8 10 84.60 59.00 0.00 30.80 3746.2
8 11 87.70 60.90 0.00 33.30 3779.5
8 12 89.20 62.20 0.00 34.70 3814.2
8 13 85.40 56.50 0.00 29.95 3844.1
8 14 73.30 59.90 0.00 25.60 3869.7
8 15 76.70 61.80 0.00 28.25 3898.0
8 16 84.20 51.00 0.00 26.60 3924.6
8 17 89.60 53.20 0.00 30.40 3955.0
8 18 97.10 54.70 0.00 34.90 3989.9
8 19 97.60 59.70 0.00 37.65 4027.5
8 20 81.10 58.40 0.00 28.75 4056.3
8 21 80.50 52.60 0.00 25.55 4081.8
8 22 85.00 54.00 0.00 28.50 4110.3
8 23 85.70 54.60 0.00 29.15 4139.5
8 24 84.60 55.00 0.00 28.80 4168.3
8 25 85.60 50.90 0.00 27.25 4195.5
8 26 88.70 50.10 0.00 28.40 4223.9
8 27 87.90 53.40 0.00 29.65 4253.6
8 28 81.40 63.20 0.00 31.30 4284.9
8 29 73.60 64.10 0.23 27.85 4312.7
8 30 71.50 56.60 0.68 23.05 4335.8
8 31 74.80 57.30 0.00 25.05 4360.8
9 1 76.30 57.50 0.00 25.90 4386.7
9 2 71.40 56.90 0.00 23.15 4409.9
9 3 68.10 48.70 0.00 17.40 4427.3
9 4 67.40 47.10 0.00 16.25 4443.5
9 5 68.20 48.60 0.00 17.40 4460.9
9 6 69.20 44.40 0.03 15.80 4476.7
9 7 74.50 52.20 0.00 22.35 4499.1
9 8 81.80 51.00 0.00 25.40 4524.5
9 9 83.00 57.20 0.00 29.10 4553.6
9 10 87.30 51.50 0.00 28.40 4582.0
9 11 93.90 54.80 0.00 33.35 4615.3
9 12 90.00 57.60 0.00 32.80 4648.1
9 13 76.50 55.70 0.00 25.10 4673.2
9 14 59.90 50.50 0.00 14.20 4687.4
9 15 64.00 46.20 0.00 14.10 4701.5
9 16 72.60 51.80 0.01 21.20 4722.7
9 17 69.30 55.20 0.77 21.25 4744.0
9 18 74.50 50.80 0.00 21.65 4765.6
9 19 78.30 49.40 0.00 22.85 4788.5
9 20 77.70 52.60 0.00 24.15 4812.6
9 21 70.60 53.20 0.04 20.90 4833.5
9 22 69.60 43.60 0.00 15.60 4849.1
9 23 75.40 41.50 0.00 17.45 4866.6
9 24 77.00 48.80 0.00 21.90 4888.5
9 25 66.20 54.50 0.16 19.35 4907.8
9 26 69.00 53.00 0.03 20.00 4927.8
9 27 71.00 39.20 0.00 14.28 4942.1
9 28 82.00 50.90 0.00 25.45 4967.6
9 29 80.30 44.50 0.00 21.40 4989.0
9 30 70.50 45.50 0.00 17.00 5006.0
10 1 76.90 44.10 0.00 19.50 5025.5
10 2 61.90 46.10 0.00 13.00 5038.5
10 3 69.90 44.70 0.00 16.30 5054.8
10 4 80.90 48.80 0.00 23.85 5078.6
10 5 84.40 55.90 0.00 29.15 5107.8
10 6 76.60 47.80 0.00 21.20 5129.0
10 7 65.90 58.10 0.13 21.00 5150.0
10 8 71.50 53.70 0.00 21.60 5171.6
10 9 71.50 50.30 0.00 19.90 5191.5
10 10 71.70 56.50 0.22 23.10 5214.6
10 11 66.30 49.90 0.01 17.10 5231.7
10 12 70.70 48.50 0.00 18.60 5250.3
10 13 73.50 46.80 0.01 19.15 5269.4
10 14 71.10 50.00 0.00 19.55 5289.0
10 15 80.30 44.70 0.00 21.50 5310.5
10 16 70.40 49.00 0.00 18.70 5329.2
10 17 64.50 55.80 0.02 19.15 5348.3
10 18 67.30 57.50 0.07 21.40 5369.7
10 19 63.30 55.30 0.06 18.30 5388.0
10 20 64.40 49.00 0.02 15.70 5403.7
10 21 60.80 45.20 0.01 12.00 5415.7
10 22 65.00 42.80 0.00 12.90 5428.6
10 23 62.90 39.30 0.00 10.29 5438.9
10 24 68.50 45.50 0.00 16.00 5454.9
10 25 61.60 49.40 0.74 14.50 5469.4
10 26 64.50 49.90 0.02 16.20 5485.6
10 27 57.70 40.20 0.00 8.02 5493.6
10 28 60.30 50.40 0.46 14.35 5508.0
10 29 64.20 53.00 0.08 17.60 5525.6
10 30 61.60 55.00 0.62 17.30 5542.9
10 31 64.20 53.50 2.15 17.85 5560.7
11 1 61.70 50.50 0.98 15.10 5575.8
11 2 57.90 44.70 0.03 10.30 5586.1
11 3 56.70 38.40 0.01 6.97 5593.1
11 4 51.10 32.00 0.01 3.32 5596.4
11 5 53.10 45.70 0.02 8.40 5604.8
11 6 62.20 41.20 0.00 10.70 5615.5
11 7 54.60 40.50 0.64 6.59 5622.1
11 8 54.80 46.20 0.06 9.50 5631.6
11 9 53.50 39.00 0.02 5.57 5637.2
11 10 50.30 36.30 0.01 3.50 5640.7
11 11 52.70 40.80 0.13 5.76 5646.5
11 12 50.60 34.90 0.08 3.44 5649.9
11 13 58.60 50.50 0.15 13.55 5663.4
11 14 60.30 53.30 0.00 15.80 5679.2
11 15 56.10 39.90 0.62 7.12 5686.4
11 16 49.00 36.50 0.28 2.94 5689.3
11 17 56.80 48.90 0.99 11.85 5701.2
11 18 52.10 37.20 0.28 4.49 5705.6
11 19 47.00 40.70 0.68 2.88 5708.5
11 20 51.60 37.60 0.00 4.33 5712.8
11 21 51.50 30.40 0.00 3.33 5716.2
11 22 45.00 27.30 0.00 0.83 5717.0
11 23 39.80 27.60 0.28 0.00 5717.0
11 24 41.40 36.90 0.30 0.05 5717.1
11 25 47.40 31.40 0.01 1.80 5718.9
11 26 50.80 31.70 0.00 3.17 5722.0
11 27 51.40 35.50 0.00 3.88 5725.9
11 28 51.20 27.60 0.00 2.99 5728.9
11 29 47.30 23.40 0.00 1.41 5730.3
11 30 35.80 21.90 0.02 0.00 5730.3
12 1 45.40 34.50 0.52 1.24 5731.5
12 2 44.30 34.80 0.25 0.86 5732.4
12 3 55.20 39.10 0.33 6.43 5738.8
12 4 52.00 41.20 0.35 5.60 5744.4
12 5 50.80 39.80 0.18 4.47 5748.9
12 6 56.50 46.50 0.66 10.50 5759.4
12 7 61.40 48.70 2.20 14.05 5773.5
12 8 63.30 58.60 1.02 19.95 5793.4
12 9 58.00 44.50 0.59 10.25 5803.7
12 10 52.90 44.60 0.80 7.75 5811.4
12 11 48.40 43.80 0.11 5.10 5816.5
12 12 51.10 43.50 0.67 6.30 5822.8
12 13 47.80 40.90 0.31 3.36 5826.2
12 14 41.80 36.20 0.09 0.13 5826.3
12 15 42.00 37.10 0.03 0.20 5826.5
12 16 43.70 41.10 0.17 1.40 5827.9
12 17 55.10 42.20 2.34 7.65 5835.5
12 18 54.70 41.50 0.35 7.10 5842.6
12 19 48.80 41.70 0.04 4.25 5846.9
12 20 48.70 43.40 0.14 5.05 5851.9
12 21 51.60 42.00 0.54 5.80 5857.7
12 22 45.60 38.50 0.28 1.70 5859.4
12 23 43.40 37.30 0.00 0.67 5860.1
12 24 40.50 35.50 0.16 0.00 5860.1
12 25 43.40 32.40 0.00 0.49 5860.6
12 26 37.80 29.00 0.00 0.00 5860.6
12 27 40.20 34.50 0.36 0.00 5860.6
12 28 40.60 35.90 0.06 0.00 5860.6
12 29 43.30 35.90 0.08 0.56 5861.2
12 30 44.40 27.60 0.01 0.66 5861.8
12 31 41.62 32.10 0.00 0.07 5861.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 ARAO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2015 ARAO AURORA OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-14-15 | 854 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-20-15 | 952 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 4-25-15 | 1001 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-13-15 | 1282 | Peak egg hatch |
| 6-17-15 | 2091 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3263738)
