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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 KVUO METAR Vancouver Pearson Fld WA Lat:45.6203 Long:-122.6564 Elev:26
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 46.90 30.00 0.00 1.54 1.5 * START *
1 2 44.60 28.40 0.01 0.74 2.3
1 3 43.00 37.00 0.03 0.51 2.8
1 4 48.90 35.10 0.11 2.72 5.5
1 5 51.80 42.80 0.02 6.30 11.8
1 6 51.10 39.00 0.12 4.40 16.2
1 7 46.90 35.10 0.24 1.88 18.1
1 8 53.60 41.00 0.54 6.30 24.4
1 9 53.60 37.00 1.80 5.16 29.5
1 10 51.80 30.20 0.13 3.44 33.0
1 11 48.20 42.10 0.49 4.15 37.1
1 12 51.80 44.10 0.12 6.95 44.1
1 13 50.00 44.10 0.22 6.05 50.1
1 14 52.00 39.90 0.35 5.09 55.2
1 15 50.00 44.60 0.10 6.30 61.5
1 16 51.80 37.00 0.11 4.31 65.8
1 17 50.00 44.10 0.03 6.05 71.9
1 18 46.90 39.20 0.29 2.43 74.3
1 19 43.00 32.00 0.00 0.37 74.7
1 20 39.90 33.80 0.00 0.00 74.7
1 21 46.90 30.00 0.08 1.54 76.2
1 22 48.20 30.20 0.00 2.02 78.2
1 23 48.90 35.10 0.00 2.72 81.0
1 24 50.00 37.00 0.00 3.47 84.4
1 25 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 88.0
1 26 46.40 42.80 0.01 3.60 91.6
1 27 52.00 44.10 0.04 7.05 98.7
1 28 48.20 37.90 0.05 2.80 101.5
1 29 39.20 30.20 0.00 0.00 101.5
1 30 39.90 17.10 0.00 0.00 101.5
1 31 42.80 21.20 0.00 0.22 101.7
2 1 48.90 24.80 0.00 1.99 103.7
2 2 48.90 23.00 0.00 1.91 105.6
2 3 53.60 32.00 0.11 4.39 110.0
2 4 48.90 39.90 0.10 3.57 113.6
2 5 51.80 42.10 0.13 5.95 119.5
2 6 51.80 41.00 0.04 5.40 124.9
2 7 51.80 41.00 0.11 5.40 130.3
2 8 52.00 32.00 0.00 3.70 134.0
2 9 55.40 30.20 0.03 4.95 139.0
2 10 55.40 42.10 0.09 7.75 146.7
2 11 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 150.3
2 12 51.80 28.40 0.01 3.29 153.6
2 13 48.20 35.10 0.20 2.42 156.0
2 14 44.60 28.00 0.71 0.73 156.7
2 15 44.60 26.10 0.00 0.69 157.4
2 16 48.20 28.00 0.00 1.90 159.3
2 17 51.80 39.00 0.01 4.74 164.1
2 18 51.80 37.00 0.01 4.31 168.4
2 19 51.80 37.00 0.00 4.31 172.7
2 20 52.00 46.00 0.03 8.00 180.7
2 21 50.00 37.90 0.16 3.63 184.3
2 22 39.20 30.00 3.43 0.00 184.3
2 23 30.20 24.80 0.00 0.00 184.3
2 24 39.20 18.00 0.00 0.00 184.3
2 25 55.50 17.10 0.00 3.95 188.3 Px
2 26 56.90 37.20 0.10 6.77 195.0 Px Pn
2 27 42.80 35.60 0.27 0.39 195.4
2 28 39.20 35.60 0.15 0.00 195.4
3 1 48.90 26.60 0.00 2.08 197.5
3 2 48.20 35.60 0.03 2.48 200.0
3 3 46.90 32.00 0.18 1.65 201.6
3 4 48.20 39.00 0.21 3.00 204.6
3 5 45.00 32.00 0.09 0.97 205.6
3 6 48.00 35.60 0.24 2.39 208.0
3 7 48.90 33.10 0.24 2.51 210.5
3 8 45.00 33.10 0.03 1.02 211.5
3 9 46.40 39.20 0.29 2.19 213.7
3 10 50.00 37.00 0.11 3.47 217.2
3 11 54.00 33.80 0.00 4.80 222.0
3 12 45.00 30.00 0.40 0.90 222.9
3 13 46.90 39.90 1.07 2.59 225.5
3 14 54.00 32.00 0.03 4.56 230.1
3 15 52.00 34.00 0.02 3.94 234.0
3 16 60.80 28.00 0.00 7.03 241.0
3 17 63.00 30.00 0.00 8.30 249.3
3 18 68.00 34.00 0.00 11.38 260.7
3 19 57.90 39.00 0.19 7.73 268.4
3 20 50.00 44.10 0.05 6.05 274.5
3 21 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 284.9
3 22 64.90 33.10 0.00 9.72 294.7
3 23 50.00 41.00 0.18 4.50 299.2
3 24 46.40 35.60 0.37 1.72 300.9
3 25 48.90 35.60 0.04 2.78 303.7
3 26 50.00 34.00 0.11 3.07 306.7
3 27 55.40 33.10 0.05 5.33 312.0
3 28 52.00 37.90 0.18 4.58 316.6
3 29 57.90 35.10 0.00 6.81 323.4
3 30 54.00 44.60 0.13 8.30 331.7
3 31 50.00 46.00 0.28 7.00 338.7
4 1 51.10 42.10 0.16 5.60 344.3
4 2 45.00 35.60 0.19 1.16 345.5
4 3 48.20 37.00 0.10 2.66 348.2
4 4 50.00 39.00 0.14 3.87 352.0
4 5 53.10 39.90 0.17 5.64 357.7
4 6 51.10 45.00 0.69 7.05 364.7
4 7 57.90 44.10 0.13 10.00 374.7
4 8 57.20 46.00 0.04 10.60 385.3
4 9 55.90 48.00 0.69 10.95 396.3
4 10 53.60 42.80 0.88 7.20 403.5
4 11 54.00 42.10 0.12 7.05 410.5
4 12 44.60 37.00 1.76 1.11 411.6
4 13 68.00 34.30 0.00 11.44 423.1 Px Pn
4 14 70.40 38.90 0.00 13.88 437.0 Px Pn
4 15 68.10 48.40 0.00 17.25 454.2 Px Pn
4 16 69.70 39.40 0.00 13.71 467.9 Px Pn
4 17 75.20 37.10 0.00 15.68 483.6 Px Pn
4 18 55.80 48.10 0.00 10.95 494.5 Px Pn
4 19 62.40 45.50 0.00 12.95 507.5 Px Pn
4 20 70.00 42.10 0.00 15.05 522.5 Px Pn
4 21 62.20 48.40 0.00 14.30 536.8 Px Pn
4 22 61.00 48.40 0.00 13.70 550.5 Px Pn
4 23 62.40 48.70 0.00 14.55 565.1 Px Pn
4 24 60.90 50.20 0.00 14.55 579.6 Px Pn
4 25 68.40 47.30 0.00 16.85 596.5 Px Pn
4 26 67.00 40.90 0.00 12.95 609.4 Px Pn
4 27 68.00 48.40 0.00 17.20 626.6 Px Pn
4 28 73.70 47.50 0.00 19.60 646.2 Px Pn
4 29 72.40 53.60 0.00 22.00 668.2 Px Pn
4 30 65.80 48.80 0.00 16.30 684.5 Px Pn
5 1 63.10 39.40 0.00 10.43 695.0 Px Pn
5 2 57.90 50.30 0.00 13.10 708.1 Px Pn
5 3 58.60 42.90 0.00 9.75 717.8 Px Pn
5 4 70.00 37.80 0.00 13.33 731.2 Px Pn
5 5 74.40 49.10 0.00 20.75 751.9 Px Pn
5 6 64.60 48.30 0.00 15.45 767.4 Px Pn
5 7 75.00 38.40 0.00 16.00 783.3 Px Pn
5 8 81.90 51.10 0.00 25.50 808.8 Px Pn
5 9 87.90 56.30 0.00 31.10 839.9 Px Pn
5 10 87.80 56.50 0.00 31.15 871.1 Px Pn Peak pheromone trap catch
5 11 69.90 51.20 0.00 19.55 890.6 Px Pn
5 12 64.40 52.10 0.00 17.25 907.9 Px Pn
5 13 62.90 51.90 0.00 16.40 924.3 Px Pn
5 14 56.90 53.20 0.00 14.05 938.3 Px Pn
5 15 67.40 53.10 0.00 19.25 957.6 Px Pn Peak female adult emergence
5 16 69.90 54.00 0.00 20.95 978.5 Px Pn
5 17 69.60 50.50 0.00 19.05 997.6 Px Pn
5 18 82.90 60.80 0.00 30.85 1028.4 Peak egg laying
5 19 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 1057.1
5 20 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 1085.1
5 21 64.90 53.10 0.00 18.00 1103.1
5 22 64.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 1119.6
5 23 66.20 42.80 0.00 13.50 1133.1
5 24 73.90 46.00 0.00 18.95 1152.0
5 25 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 1178.8
5 26 84.90 53.60 0.00 28.25 1207.0
5 27 73.90 53.10 0.00 22.50 1229.5
5 28 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 1249.5
5 29 78.80 51.10 0.00 23.95 1273.5 Peak egg hatch
5 30 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1291.5
5 31 64.90 44.60 0.00 13.75 1305.2
6 1 72.00 42.10 0.00 16.05 1321.3
6 2 75.90 44.60 0.00 19.25 1340.5
6 3 80.10 48.20 0.00 23.15 1363.7
6 4 75.90 51.10 0.00 22.50 1386.2
6 5 81.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 1411.6
6 6 91.40 51.10 0.00 30.25 1441.8
6 7 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 1471.5
6 8 71.60 55.40 0.03 22.50 1494.0
6 9 61.00 55.40 0.13 17.20 1511.2
6 10 72.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1533.7
6 11 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 1558.4
6 12 88.00 55.40 0.00 30.70 1589.1
6 13 73.90 57.00 0.00 24.45 1613.5
6 14 68.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 1633.1
6 15 75.90 46.00 0.00 19.95 1653.0
6 16 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 1678.1
6 17 66.20 55.00 0.00 19.60 1697.7
6 18 57.90 50.00 0.46 12.95 1710.6
6 19 62.60 46.00 0.16 13.30 1723.9
6 20 66.90 51.80 0.00 18.35 1742.3
6 21 78.80 46.40 0.00 21.60 1763.9
6 22 86.00 51.10 0.00 27.55 1791.4
6 23 82.90 55.90 0.00 28.40 1819.8
6 24 82.40 53.10 0.00 26.75 1846.6
6 25 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 1873.6
6 26 79.00 55.40 0.00 26.20 1899.8
6 27 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 1926.8
6 28 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 1957.4
6 29 88.00 60.10 0.00 33.05 1990.4
6 30 84.20 60.10 0.00 31.15 2021.6
7 1 84.20 51.80 0.00 27.00 2048.6
7 2 84.90 57.20 0.00 30.05 2078.6 Peak in density large larvae
7 3 88.00 57.90 0.00 31.95 2110.6
7 4 95.00 57.00 0.00 35.00 2145.6
7 5 96.80 59.00 0.00 36.90 2182.5
7 6 88.00 60.80 0.00 33.40 2215.9
7 7 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 2242.0
7 8 75.90 55.40 0.00 24.65 2266.6
7 9 84.90 57.00 0.00 29.95 2296.6
7 10 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 2320.9
7 11 82.40 62.10 0.00 31.25 2352.1
7 12 82.90 60.10 0.00 30.50 2382.6
7 13 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 2415.0
7 14 93.20 57.20 0.00 34.20 2449.2
7 15 95.00 59.00 0.00 36.00 2485.2
7 16 91.90 60.80 0.00 35.35 2520.6
7 17 77.00 62.60 0.00 28.80 2549.4
7 18 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 2580.0
7 19 95.00 62.60 0.00 37.80 2617.8
7 20 88.00 60.10 0.00 33.05 2650.8
7 21 87.80 62.10 0.00 33.95 2684.8
7 22 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 2717.3
7 23 87.80 60.10 0.00 32.95 2750.2
7 24 75.90 55.90 0.00 24.90 2775.1
7 25 79.00 62.60 0.00 29.80 2804.9
7 26 82.90 55.00 0.00 27.95 2832.9
7 27 82.40 55.00 0.00 27.70 2860.6
7 28 85.20 58.10 0.00 30.65 2891.2 Hx Hn
7 29 86.90 58.10 0.00 31.50 2922.7 Hx Hn
7 30 90.40 60.00 0.00 34.20 2956.9 Hx Hn
7 31 89.20 60.80 0.00 34.00 2990.9 Hx Hn
8 1 89.60 57.20 0.00 32.40 3023.3
8 2 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 3054.8
8 3 88.00 60.10 0.00 33.05 3087.9
8 4 84.20 62.10 0.00 32.15 3120.0
8 5 82.90 68.00 0.00 34.45 3154.5
8 6 82.40 66.00 0.01 33.20 3187.7
8 7 84.20 66.00 0.00 34.10 3221.8
8 8 86.00 62.60 0.00 33.30 3255.1
8 9 84.00 60.10 0.00 31.05 3286.1
8 10 79.00 62.60 0.00 29.80 3315.9
8 11 86.00 57.00 0.00 30.50 3346.4
8 12 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 3379.9
8 13 100.40 66.90 0.00 42.65 3422.6
8 14 108.00 64.90 0.00 45.45 3468.0
8 15 102.00 68.00 0.00 44.00 3512.0
8 16 102.20 69.10 0.00 44.65 3556.7
8 17 91.40 66.00 0.00 37.70 3594.4
8 18 82.40 60.10 0.00 30.25 3624.6
8 19 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 3654.2
8 20 87.80 55.00 0.00 30.40 3684.6
8 21 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 3713.4
8 22 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 3738.6
8 23 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 3765.6
8 24 91.90 55.00 0.00 32.45 3798.0
8 25 93.20 64.90 0.08 38.05 3836.1
8 26 93.90 62.10 0.00 37.00 3873.1
8 27 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 3907.3
8 28 70.00 64.00 0.00 26.00 3933.3
8 29 75.00 60.10 0.01 26.55 3959.8
8 30 80.10 60.10 0.00 29.10 3988.9
8 31 66.20 62.10 0.59 23.15 4012.1
9 1 81.00 60.80 0.00 29.90 4042.0
9 2 90.00 60.10 0.00 34.05 4076.0
9 3 72.00 60.10 0.02 25.05 4101.1
9 4 68.00 57.90 0.00 21.95 4123.0
9 5 72.00 48.20 0.00 19.10 4142.1
9 6 79.00 48.20 0.00 22.60 4164.7
9 7 77.00 60.10 0.00 27.55 4192.3
9 8 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 4215.8
9 9 88.00 53.10 0.00 29.55 4245.3
9 10 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 4274.0
9 11 78.80 55.00 0.00 25.90 4299.9 Hx Hn
9 12 79.00 54.00 0.00 25.50 4325.4
9 13 80.10 57.90 0.00 28.00 4353.4
9 14 90.00 52.00 0.00 30.00 4383.4
9 15 93.90 53.10 0.00 32.50 4415.9
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KVUO PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 KVUO Vancouver Pearson Fld Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-10-23 | 871 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-15-23 | 958 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-18-23 | 1028 | Peak egg laying |
| 5-29-23 | 1273 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-2-23 | 2079 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2342613)
