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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KCDH METAR Camden / Harrell Field AR Lat:33.6167 Long:-92.7667 Elev:131
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 51.80 46.40 0.04 8.10 8.1 * START *
1 2 68.00 46.00 0.02 16.00 24.1
1 3 62.60 50.60 0.01 15.60 39.7 Vn
1 4 46.40 28.40 0.00 1.30 41.0
1 5 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 41.0
1 6 32.00 15.80 0.00 0.00 41.0
1 7 37.40 14.00 0.00 0.00 41.0
1 8 41.00 15.80 0.00 0.00 41.0
1 9 55.40 23.00 0.00 4.29 45.3
1 10 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 69.6
1 11 77.00 64.40 0.00 29.70 99.3
1 12 75.20 64.40 0.00 28.80 128.1
1 13 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 141.6
1 14 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 157.8
1 15 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 171.3
1 16 73.40 53.60 1.34 22.50 193.8
1 17 57.20 50.00 0.04 12.60 206.4
1 18 50.00 48.20 1.42 8.10 214.5
1 19 55.40 48.20 0.03 10.80 225.3
1 20 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 247.8
1 21 73.40 48.20 0.18 19.80 267.6
1 22 57.20 50.00 0.02 12.60 280.2
1 23 62.60 35.60 0.00 9.15 289.3
1 24 73.40 33.80 0.00 13.93 303.3
1 25 73.40 41.00 0.00 16.20 319.5
1 26 55.40 28.00 0.00 4.72 324.2
1 27 55.40 24.80 0.00 4.43 328.6
1 28 59.00 24.80 0.00 5.90 334.5
1 29 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 343.3
1 30 73.40 28.40 0.00 12.82 356.1
1 31 77.00 32.00 0.00 15.24 371.3
2 1 75.20 46.40 0.00 19.80 391.1
2 2 51.80 39.20 0.47 4.79 395.9
2 3 50.00 28.40 0.00 2.59 398.5
2 4 46.40 26.60 0.06 1.23 399.7
2 5 51.80 41.00 0.11 5.40 405.1
2 6 73.40 50.00 0.03 20.70 425.8
2 7 84.20 48.20 0.00 25.20 451.0
2 8 78.80 39.20 0.00 18.16 469.2
2 9 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 474.4
2 10 73.40 30.20 0.00 13.15 487.5
2 11 82.40 64.40 0.00 32.40 519.9
2 12 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 539.7
2 13 59.00 48.20 0.00 12.60 552.3
2 14 53.60 41.00 2.28 6.30 558.6
2 15 62.60 33.80 0.00 8.77 567.4
2 16 68.00 30.20 0.00 10.63 578.0
2 17 71.60 32.00 0.00 12.67 590.7
2 18 66.20 46.40 0.00 15.30 606.0
2 19 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 629.4
2 20 77.00 53.60 0.25 24.30 653.7
2 21 64.40 57.20 0.04 19.80 673.5
2 22 71.60 48.20 0.01 18.90 692.4
2 23 82.40 46.40 0.00 23.40 715.8
2 24 75.20 46.40 0.01 19.80 735.6
2 25 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 741.6
2 26 66.20 28.40 0.46 9.50 751.1
2 27 62.60 48.20 0.47 14.40 765.5
2 28 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 794.3
3 1 73.40 39.20 0.00 15.48 809.8
3 2 66.20 32.00 0.00 10.12 819.9
3 3 68.00 32.00 0.00 10.96 830.8
3 4 69.80 35.60 0.00 12.63 843.5
3 5 64.40 48.20 0.04 15.30 858.8 Peak pheromone trap catch
3 6 73.40 59.00 0.02 25.20 884.0
3 7 69.80 39.20 0.00 13.69 897.6
3 8 75.20 33.80 0.00 14.80 912.4
3 9 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 934.0
3 10 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 950.2 Peak female adult emergence
3 11 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 953.0
3 12 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 959.7
3 13 59.00 32.00 0.00 6.79 966.5
3 14 55.40 28.40 0.00 4.76 971.3
3 15 53.60 32.00 0.00 4.39 975.7
3 16 64.40 41.00 0.00 11.70 987.4
3 17 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 1013.5 Peak egg laying
3 18 82.40 55.40 0.00 27.90 1041.4
3 19 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 1068.4
3 20 87.80 59.00 0.00 32.40 1100.8
3 21 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 1129.6
3 22 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1153.0
3 23 86.00 48.20 0.00 26.10 1179.1
3 24 80.60 59.00 0.02 28.80 1207.9
3 25 73.40 50.00 0.03 20.70 1228.6
3 26 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 1252.9
3 27 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 1282.6 Peak egg hatch
3 28 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 1310.5
3 29 80.60 64.40 0.03 31.50 1342.0
3 30 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1358.2
3 31 82.40 41.00 0.00 20.70 1378.9
4 1 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 1407.7
4 2 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1430.2
4 3 77.00 53.60 0.00 24.30 1454.5
4 4 75.10 49.40 0.00 21.25 1475.7 Hx Hn
4 5 64.40 48.20 0.00 15.30 1491.0
4 6 71.60 41.00 0.00 15.30 1506.3
4 7 73.40 37.40 0.00 14.89 1521.2
4 8 80.60 44.60 0.00 21.60 1542.8
4 9 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 1569.8
4 10 80.60 60.80 0.16 29.70 1599.5
4 11 68.00 59.00 0.05 22.50 1622.0
4 12 77.00 59.00 0.02 27.00 1649.0
4 13 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 1677.8
4 14 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 1707.5
4 15 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 1736.3
4 16 84.20 64.40 0.00 33.30 1769.6
4 17 78.80 62.60 0.01 29.70 1799.3
4 18 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 1829.9
4 19 84.20 60.80 0.00 31.50 1861.4
4 20 84.20 62.60 0.00 32.40 1893.8
4 21 86.00 62.60 0.00 33.30 1927.1
4 22 71.60 51.80 0.00 20.70 1947.8
4 23 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1965.8
4 24 80.60 41.00 0.00 19.80 1985.6
4 25 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 2009.9
4 26 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 2032.4
4 27 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 2050.4
4 28 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 2081.9 Peak in density large larvae
4 29 82.40 68.00 0.00 34.20 2116.1
4 30 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 2138.6
5 1 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 2159.3
5 2 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 2183.6
5 3 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 2207.0
5 4 62.60 48.20 0.00 14.40 2221.4
5 5 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 2242.1
5 6 80.60 46.40 0.00 22.50 2264.6
5 7 86.00 50.00 0.00 27.00 2291.6
5 8 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 2320.4
5 9 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2349.2
5 10 86.00 62.60 0.00 33.30 2382.5
5 11 84.20 66.20 0.00 34.20 2416.7
5 12 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 2444.6
5 13 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 2469.8
5 14 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2495.9
5 15 86.00 55.40 0.00 29.70 2525.6
5 16 86.00 59.00 0.00 31.50 2557.1
5 17 84.20 64.40 0.00 33.30 2590.4
5 18 87.80 71.60 0.00 38.70 2629.1
5 19 89.60 68.00 0.00 37.80 2666.9
5 20 80.60 68.00 0.00 33.30 2700.2
5 21 78.80 60.80 0.00 28.80 2729.0
5 22 66.20 59.00 0.00 21.60 2750.6
5 23 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2778.5
5 24 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2799.2
5 25 84.20 46.40 0.00 24.30 2823.5
5 26 86.00 66.20 0.00 35.10 2858.6
5 27 89.60 73.40 0.00 40.50 2899.1
5 28 84.20 64.40 0.00 33.30 2932.4
5 29 84.20 64.40 0.00 33.30 2965.7
5 30 89.60 62.60 0.00 35.10 3000.8
5 31 89.60 62.60 0.00 35.10 3035.9
6 1 75.20 66.20 0.00 29.70 3065.6
6 2 86.00 68.00 0.00 36.00 3101.6
6 3 87.80 68.00 0.00 36.90 3138.5
6 4 84.20 69.80 0.00 36.00 3174.5
6 5 86.00 69.80 0.00 36.90 3211.4
6 6 89.60 71.60 0.00 39.60 3251.0
6 7 82.40 59.00 0.00 29.70 3280.7
6 8 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 3309.5
6 9 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 3338.3
6 10 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 3369.8
6 11 91.40 66.20 0.00 37.80 3407.6
6 12 91.40 71.60 0.00 40.50 3448.1
6 13 89.60 69.80 0.00 38.70 3486.8
6 14 91.40 71.60 0.00 40.50 3527.3
6 15 91.40 73.40 0.00 41.40 3568.7
6 16 95.00 73.40 0.00 43.20 3611.9
6 17 91.40 69.80 0.00 39.60 3651.5
6 18 87.80 71.60 0.00 38.70 3690.2
6 19 86.00 66.20 0.00 35.10 3725.3
6 20 91.40 64.40 0.00 36.90 3762.2
6 21 86.00 66.20 0.00 35.10 3797.3
6 22 84.20 73.40 0.00 37.80 3835.1
6 23 89.60 69.80 0.00 38.70 3873.8
6 24 84.20 68.00 0.00 35.10 3908.9
6 25 86.00 64.40 0.00 34.20 3943.1
6 26 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 3977.3
6 27 89.60 62.60 0.00 35.10 4012.4
6 28 89.60 64.40 0.00 36.00 4048.4
6 29 89.60 71.60 0.00 39.60 4088.0
6 30 89.60 68.00 0.00 37.80 4125.8
Forecast using: 1910 KCDH PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat33.6167 Long-92.7667 DD50
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2017 KCDH Camden / Harrell 1910 KCDH PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 3-5-17 | 859 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 3-10-17 | 950 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 3-17-17 | 1013 | Peak egg laying |
| 3-27-17 | 1283 | Peak egg hatch |
| 4-28-17 | 2082 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3269265)
