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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (cold winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 12 0
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 1040 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1100 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1370 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2170 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 E2611 APRSWXNET EW2611 Arab AL Lat34.3222 Long:-86.4906 Elev:1106
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 40.00 33.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 51.00 30.00 0.00 3.10 3.1
1 3 53.00 29.00 0.00 3.82 6.9
1 4 40.00 27.00 0.00 0.00 6.9
1 5 47.00 24.00 0.00 1.34 8.3
1 6 48.00 30.00 0.00 1.94 10.2
1 7 56.00 32.00 0.00 5.44 15.6
1 8 57.00 47.00 0.00 11.00 26.6
1 9 54.00 43.00 0.95 7.50 34.1
1 10 41.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 34.1
1 11 45.00 18.00 0.01 0.66 34.8
1 12 55.00 29.00 0.00 4.65 39.4
1 13 49.00 24.00 0.00 1.99 41.4
1 14 59.00 32.00 0.15 6.79 48.2
1 15 50.00 41.00 0.01 4.50 52.7
1 16 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.96 55.7
1 17 45.00 29.00 0.00 0.87 56.6
1 18 32.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 56.6
1 19 35.00 17.00 0.24 0.00 56.6
1 20 38.00 33.00 0.02 0.00 56.6
1 21 45.00 37.00 1.71 1.27 57.8
1 22 49.00 27.00 0.01 2.13 60.0
1 23 30.00 19.00 0.08 0.00 60.0
1 24 48.00 19.00 0.06 1.50 61.5
1 25 58.00 30.00 0.68 6.06 67.5
1 26 54.00 37.00 0.45 5.34 72.9
1 27 45.00 29.00 0.00 0.87 73.7
1 28 55.00 26.00 0.00 4.37 78.1
1 29 54.00 34.00 0.00 4.83 82.9
1 30 67.00 33.00 0.00 10.69 93.6
1 31 68.00 52.00 0.03 19.00 112.6
2 1 71.00 56.00 0.03 22.50 135.1
2 2 73.00 57.00 0.25 24.00 159.1
2 3 60.00 42.00 0.00 10.00 169.1 Vx Vn
2 4 54.00 34.00 0.00 4.83 173.9 Vx Vn
2 5 51.00 30.00 0.00 3.10 177.0 Vx Vn
2 6 48.00 27.00 0.00 1.78 178.8
2 7 56.00 29.00 0.00 5.07 183.9
2 8 51.00 33.00 0.02 3.38 187.3
2 9 33.00 21.00 0.01 0.00 187.3
2 10 37.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 187.3
2 11 51.00 23.00 0.00 2.64 189.9
2 12 58.00 31.00 0.00 6.19 196.1
2 13 37.00 24.00 0.00 0.00 196.1
2 14 48.00 26.00 0.85 1.74 197.8
2 15 48.00 41.00 1.22 3.50 201.3
2 16 55.00 36.00 0.04 5.62 207.0
2 17 49.00 30.00 0.00 2.31 209.3
2 18 60.00 30.00 0.00 6.95 216.2
2 19 69.00 46.00 0.00 16.50 232.7
2 20 63.00 52.00 0.28 16.50 249.2 Vn
2 21 62.00 58.00 0.22 19.00 268.2
2 22 61.00 53.00 0.68 16.00 284.2
2 23 62.00 53.00 1.58 16.50 300.7
2 24 60.00 39.00 0.04 8.76 309.5
2 25 50.00 35.00 0.00 3.19 312.7
2 26 51.00 30.00 0.00 3.10 315.8
2 27 60.00 29.00 0.00 6.81 322.6
2 28 68.00 43.00 0.00 14.50 337.1
2 29 70.00 48.00 0.07 18.00 355.1
3 1 68.00 39.00 0.67 12.72 367.8
3 2 49.00 33.00 0.23 2.55 370.3
3 3 43.00 35.00 0.23 0.44 370.8
3 4 50.00 33.00 0.00 2.96 373.7
3 5 64.00 32.00 0.00 9.09 382.8
3 6 66.00 35.00 0.00 10.64 393.5
3 7 71.00 49.00 0.00 19.00 412.5
3 8 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 432.5
3 9 77.00 56.00 0.00 25.50 458.0
3 10 76.00 62.00 0.87 28.00 486.0
3 11 72.00 60.00 0.01 25.00 511.0
3 12 73.00 60.00 0.40 25.50 536.5
3 13 72.00 55.00 0.13 22.50 559.0
3 14 75.00 53.00 0.12 23.00 582.0
3 15 86.00 51.00 0.00 27.50 609.5
3 16 75.00 49.00 0.00 21.00 630.5
3 17 70.00 44.00 0.00 16.00 646.5
3 18 71.00 46.00 0.00 17.50 664.0
3 19 64.00 42.00 0.00 12.00 676.0
3 20 54.00 35.00 0.00 4.98 681.0
3 21 55.00 31.00 0.00 4.87 685.8
3 22 68.00 33.00 0.00 11.16 697.0
3 23 71.00 50.00 0.50 19.50 716.5
3 24 63.00 54.00 0.40 17.50 734.0
3 25 61.00 42.00 0.00 10.50 744.5
3 26 74.00 41.00 0.07 16.50 761.0
3 27 65.00 61.00 0.07 22.00 783.0
3 28 62.00 45.00 0.00 12.50 795.5
3 29 68.00 39.00 0.00 12.72 808.2
3 30 74.00 50.00 1.17 21.00 829.2
3 31 69.00 59.00 0.28 23.00 852.2
4 1 66.00 52.00 0.13 18.00 870.2
4 2 62.00 45.00 0.00 12.50 882.7
4 3 66.00 43.00 0.00 13.50 896.2
4 4 77.00 44.00 0.00 19.50 915.7
4 5 64.00 43.00 0.00 12.50 928.2
4 6 69.00 45.00 0.30 16.00 944.2
4 7 71.00 45.00 0.01 17.00 961.2 Peak pheromone trap catch
4 8 62.00 41.00 0.16 10.50 971.7
4 9 57.00 39.00 0.16 7.29 979.0
4 10 69.00 38.00 0.06 12.90 991.9
4 11 64.00 48.00 1.32 15.00 1006.9
4 12 64.00 44.00 0.01 13.00 1019.9
4 13 67.00 42.00 0.22 13.50 1033.4
4 14 67.00 56.00 0.02 20.50 1053.9 Peak female adult emergence
4 15 69.00 54.00 0.00 20.50 1074.4
4 16 74.00 53.00 0.00 22.50 1096.9
4 17 75.00 49.00 0.00 21.00 1117.9 Peak egg laying
4 18 78.00 45.00 0.00 20.50 1138.4
4 19 76.00 47.00 0.00 20.50 1158.9
4 20 80.00 56.00 0.00 27.00 1185.9
4 21 71.00 58.00 0.02 23.50 1209.4
4 22 74.00 56.00 0.09 24.00 1233.4
4 23 73.00 50.00 0.00 20.50 1253.9
4 24 79.00 48.00 0.00 22.50 1276.4
4 25 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 1303.4
4 26 81.00 56.00 0.00 27.50 1330.9
4 27 79.00 64.00 0.00 30.50 1361.4
4 28 82.00 59.00 0.00 29.50 1390.9 Peak egg hatch
4 29 82.00 55.00 0.40 27.50 1418.4
4 30 81.00 60.00 0.00 29.50 1447.9
5 1 74.00 61.00 0.00 26.50 1474.4
5 2 76.00 60.00 0.39 27.00 1501.4
5 3 69.00 52.00 0.00 19.50 1520.9
5 4 71.00 49.00 0.20 19.00 1539.9
5 5 64.00 44.00 0.01 13.00 1552.9
5 6 68.00 44.00 0.00 15.00 1567.9
5 7 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 1589.4
5 8 82.00 58.00 0.00 29.00 1618.4
5 9 70.00 62.00 0.00 25.00 1643.4
5 10 81.00 62.00 0.00 30.50 1673.9
5 11 83.00 64.00 0.02 32.50 1706.4
5 12 80.00 63.00 0.42 30.50 1736.9
5 13 73.00 53.00 0.01 22.00 1758.9
5 14 74.00 46.00 0.00 19.00 1777.9
5 15 67.00 44.00 0.00 14.50 1792.4
5 16 73.00 46.00 0.00 18.50 1810.9
5 17 79.00 60.00 0.00 28.50 1839.4
5 18 76.00 58.00 0.00 26.00 1865.4
5 19 76.00 57.00 0.01 25.50 1890.9
5 20 70.00 63.00 0.01 25.50 1916.4
5 21 76.00 56.00 0.00 25.00 1941.4
5 22 78.00 53.00 0.00 24.50 1965.9
5 23 82.00 50.00 0.00 25.00 1990.9
5 24 84.00 54.00 0.00 28.00 2018.9
5 25 86.00 61.00 0.00 32.50 2051.4
5 26 87.00 61.00 0.00 33.00 2084.4
5 27 87.00 64.00 0.00 34.50 2118.9
5 28 77.00 63.00 0.01 29.00 2147.9
5 29 87.00 61.00 0.01 33.00 2180.9 Peak in density large larvae
5 30 88.00 63.00 0.00 34.50 2215.4
5 31 89.00 63.00 0.00 35.00 2250.4
6 1 89.00 66.00 0.10 36.50 2286.9
6 2 85.00 68.00 0.07 35.50 2322.4
6 3 90.00 67.00 0.55 37.50 2359.9
6 4 82.00 67.00 0.66 33.50 2393.4
6 5 80.00 68.00 0.96 33.00 2426.4
6 6 83.00 64.00 0.00 32.50 2458.9
6 7 87.00 61.00 0.00 33.00 2491.9
6 8 82.00 56.00 0.00 28.00 2519.9
6 9 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 2548.4
6 10 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 2581.9
6 11 91.00 63.00 0.00 36.00 2617.9
6 12 90.00 70.00 0.08 39.00 2656.9
6 13 92.00 69.00 0.00 39.50 2696.4
6 14 88.00 70.00 0.00 38.00 2734.4
6 15 87.00 68.00 1.67 36.50 2770.9
6 16 91.00 68.00 0.02 38.50 2809.4
6 17 89.00 67.00 0.00 37.00 2846.4
6 18 81.00 65.00 0.00 32.00 2878.4
6 19 85.00 65.00 0.00 34.00 2912.4
6 20 87.00 60.00 0.00 32.50 2944.9
6 21 87.00 67.00 0.00 36.00 2980.9
6 22 90.00 72.00 0.00 40.00 3020.9
6 23 90.00 73.00 0.00 40.50 3061.4
6 24 92.00 73.00 0.00 41.50 3102.9
6 25 95.00 71.00 0.08 42.00 3144.9
6 26 93.00 70.00 0.00 40.50 3185.4
6 27 90.00 70.00 1.89 39.00 3224.4
6 28 87.00 68.00 0.00 36.50 3260.9
6 29 86.00 64.00 0.00 34.00 3294.9
6 30 86.00 60.00 0.00 32.00 3326.9
7 1 90.00 59.00 0.00 33.50 3360.4
7 2 91.00 69.00 0.00 39.00 3399.4
7 3 91.00 67.00 0.00 38.00 3437.4
7 4 91.00 76.00 0.83 42.50 3479.9
7 5 81.00 71.00 0.04 35.00 3514.9
7 6 90.00 73.00 0.00 40.50 3555.4
7 7 90.00 73.00 0.00 40.50 3595.9
7 8 92.00 74.00 0.00 42.00 3637.9
7 9 89.00 70.00 0.02 38.50 3676.4
7 10 86.00 69.00 0.47 36.50 3712.9
7 11 86.00 67.00 0.72 35.50 3748.4
7 12 89.00 67.00 0.01 37.00 3785.4
7 13 89.00 66.00 0.00 36.50 3821.9
7 14 90.00 69.00 0.01 38.50 3860.4
7 15 85.00 69.00 0.00 36.00 3896.4
7 16 88.00 69.00 0.28 37.50 3933.9
7 17 89.00 68.00 0.01 37.50 3971.4
7 18 91.00 73.00 0.00 41.00 4012.4
7 19 91.00 71.00 0.00 40.00 4052.4
7 20 92.00 70.00 0.00 40.00 4092.4
7 21 93.00 71.00 0.00 41.00 4133.4
7 22 92.00 71.00 0.00 40.50 4173.9
7 23 92.00 71.00 0.03 40.50 4214.4
7 24 93.00 71.00 0.01 41.00 4255.4
7 25 94.00 71.00 0.07 41.50 4296.9
7 26 93.00 72.00 0.01 41.50 4338.4
7 27 88.00 73.00 0.01 39.50 4377.9
7 28 85.00 73.00 0.47 38.00 4415.9
7 29 84.00 73.00 0.44 37.50 4453.4
7 30 86.00 70.00 0.15 37.00 4490.4
7 31 88.00 69.00 0.00 37.50 4527.9
8 1 91.00 69.00 0.04 39.00 4566.9
8 2 83.00 71.00 0.01 36.00 4602.9
8 3 89.00 71.00 0.00 39.00 4641.9
8 4 90.00 70.00 0.00 39.00 4680.9
8 5 93.00 71.00 0.00 41.00 4721.9
8 6 91.00 71.00 0.00 40.00 4761.9
8 7 90.00 71.00 0.01 39.50 4801.4
8 8 88.00 72.00 0.07 39.00 4840.4
8 9 88.00 74.00 0.01 40.00 4880.4
8 10 87.00 74.00 0.03 39.50 4919.9
8 11 88.00 74.00 0.03 40.00 4959.9
8 12 86.00 72.00 0.16 38.00 4997.9
8 13 87.00 70.00 0.18 37.50 5035.4
8 14 90.00 68.00 0.00 38.00 5073.4
8 15 89.00 70.00 0.00 38.50 5111.9
8 16 92.00 69.00 0.00 39.50 5151.4
8 17 92.00 69.00 0.00 39.50 5190.9
8 18 90.00 70.00 0.18 39.00 5229.9
8 19 80.00 71.00 0.64 34.50 5264.4
8 20 85.00 72.00 0.79 37.50 5301.9
8 21 83.00 68.00 0.64 34.50 5336.4
8 22 82.00 66.00 0.00 33.00 5369.4
8 23 88.00 65.00 0.00 35.50 5404.9
8 24 91.00 69.00 0.00 39.00 5443.9
8 25 93.00 71.00 0.00 41.00 5484.9
8 26 92.00 70.00 0.20 40.00 5524.9
8 27 92.00 69.00 0.04 39.50 5564.4
8 28 91.00 70.00 0.01 39.50 5603.9
8 29 91.00 68.00 0.00 38.50 5642.4
8 30 92.00 65.00 0.00 37.50 5679.9
8 31 92.00 67.00 0.00 38.50 5718.4
9 1 91.00 68.00 0.00 38.50 5756.9
9 2 86.00 68.00 0.00 36.00 5792.9
9 3 88.00 69.00 0.00 37.50 5830.4
9 4 91.00 68.00 0.00 38.50 5868.9
9 5 91.00 64.00 0.00 36.50 5905.4
9 6 92.00 64.00 0.00 37.00 5942.4
9 7 91.00 67.00 0.00 38.00 5980.4
9 8 92.00 68.00 0.00 39.00 6019.4
9 9 92.00 65.00 0.00 37.50 6056.9
9 10 91.00 71.00 0.13 40.00 6096.9
9 11 84.00 62.00 0.01 32.00 6128.9
9 12 92.00 60.00 0.00 35.00 6163.9
9 13 89.00 68.00 0.00 37.50 6201.4
9 14 93.00 66.00 0.00 38.50 6239.9
9 15 93.00 68.00 0.15 39.50 6279.4
9 16 92.00 68.00 0.14 39.00 6318.4
9 17 77.00 70.00 0.05 32.50 6350.9
9 18 85.00 72.00 0.15 37.50 6388.4
9 19 88.00 65.00 0.01 35.50 6423.9
9 20 90.00 62.00 0.00 35.00 6458.9
9 21 90.00 61.00 0.00 34.50 6493.4
9 22 92.00 65.00 0.00 37.50 6530.9
9 23 93.00 64.00 0.00 37.50 6568.4
9 24 93.00 63.00 0.00 37.00 6605.4
9 25 93.00 64.00 0.03 37.50 6642.9
9 26 89.00 66.00 0.03 36.50 6679.4
9 27 83.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 6708.4
9 28 84.00 49.00 0.00 25.50 6733.9
9 29 71.00 51.00 0.00 20.00 6753.9
9 30 72.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 6773.9
10 1 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 6795.4
10 2 79.00 53.00 0.00 25.00 6820.4
10 3 83.00 51.00 0.00 26.00 6846.4
10 4 87.00 56.00 0.00 30.50 6876.9
10 5 85.00 62.00 0.00 32.50 6909.4
10 6 86.00 61.00 0.00 32.50 6941.9
10 7 87.00 57.00 0.00 31.00 6972.9
10 8 77.00 53.00 0.00 24.00 6996.9
10 9 80.00 48.00 0.00 23.00 7019.9
10 10 77.00 45.00 0.00 20.00 7039.9
10 11 78.00 47.00 0.00 21.50 7061.4
10 12 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 7082.9
10 13 82.00 47.00 0.00 23.50 7106.4
10 14 85.00 55.00 0.00 29.00 7135.4
10 15 81.00 62.00 0.01 30.50 7165.9
10 16 80.00 59.00 0.01 28.50 7194.4
10 17 83.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 7223.4
10 18 86.00 63.00 0.00 33.50 7256.9
10 19 88.00 68.00 0.00 37.00 7293.9
10 20 84.00 57.00 0.10 29.50 7323.4
10 21 65.00 46.00 0.00 14.50 7337.9
10 22 66.00 39.00 0.00 11.73 7349.6
10 23 76.00 37.00 0.00 16.05 7365.7
10 24 77.00 47.00 0.00 21.00 7386.7
10 25 82.00 46.00 0.00 23.00 7409.7
10 26 79.00 53.00 0.00 25.00 7434.7
10 27 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 7462.7
10 28 82.00 51.00 0.00 25.50 7488.2
10 29 85.00 51.00 0.00 27.00 7515.2
10 30 84.00 53.00 0.00 27.50 7542.7
10 31 85.00 55.00 0.00 29.00 7571.7
11 1 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 7601.2
11 2 82.00 58.00 0.00 29.00 7630.2
11 3 81.00 55.00 0.00 27.00 7657.2
11 4 76.00 48.00 0.00 21.00 7678.2
11 5 73.00 44.00 0.00 17.50 7695.7
11 6 72.00 45.00 0.00 17.50 7713.2
11 7 75.00 48.00 0.00 20.50 7733.7
11 8 70.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 7753.7
11 9 65.00 42.00 0.00 12.50 7766.2
11 10 69.00 35.00 0.00 12.09 7778.3
11 11 68.00 36.00 0.00 11.85 7790.1
11 12 66.00 39.00 0.00 11.73 7801.9
11 13 65.00 36.00 0.00 10.40 7812.2
11 14 67.00 35.00 0.00 11.12 7823.4
11 15 67.00 38.00 0.00 11.91 7835.3
11 16 73.00 41.00 0.00 16.00 7851.3
11 17 77.00 40.00 0.00 17.57 7868.9
11 18 76.00 45.00 0.06 19.50 7888.4
11 19 61.00 35.00 0.06 8.25 7896.6
11 20 52.00 29.00 0.00 3.41 7900.0
11 21 58.00 26.00 0.00 5.60 7905.6
11 22 64.00 29.00 0.00 8.60 7914.2
11 23 69.00 40.00 0.00 13.58 7927.8
11 24 70.00 47.00 0.00 17.50 7945.3
11 25 62.00 38.00 0.00 9.46 7954.8
11 26 55.00 27.00 0.00 4.46 7959.2
11 27 59.00 25.00 0.00 5.92 7965.1
11 28 67.00 51.00 1.13 18.00 7983.1
11 29 74.00 50.00 1.83 21.00 8004.1
11 30 71.00 41.00 1.65 15.00 8019.1
Forecast using: 1910 E2611 PRISM_rev1_4km 2006-2015 AVERAGES Lat34.3222 Long-86.4906 DD50
orange tortrix (cold winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2016 E2611 EW2611 Arab AL 1910 E2611 PRISM_rev1_4km 2006-2015 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-7-16 | 961 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 4-14-16 | 1054 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 4-17-16 | 1118 | Peak egg laying |
| 4-28-16 | 1391 | Peak egg hatch |
| 5-29-16 | 2181 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (cold winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3554524)
