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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Light Brown Apple Moth [omnivorous]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 45 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: new - use with caution
Region of known use: W. USA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 495 DD after Jan 1 Peak OW/1st gen. pheromone trap catch
2. 656 DD after Jan 1 Peak OW/1st gen. egg-laying
3. 884 DD after Jan 1 Peak 2nd gen. egg-hatch
4. 1250 DD after Jan 1 Peak 2nd gen. larvae
5. 1894 DD after Jan 1 Peak 2nd gen. trap catch
6. 2430 DD after Jan 1 Peak 3rd gen. egg-hatch
7. 2875 DD after Jan 1 Peak 3rd gen. larvae
8. 3288 DD after Jan 1 Peak 3rd gen. trap catch
9. 4134 DD after Jan 1 Peak 4th gen. egg-hatch
10. 4578 DD after Jan 1 Peak 4th gen. larvae
11. 4683 DD after Jan 1 Peak 4th gen. trap catch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KLBB METAR Lubbock Int Apt TX Lat:33.6672 Long:-101.8214 Elev:3281
mn day max min precip DD45 CUMDD45 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 66.90 30.00 0.38 7.70 7.7 * START *
1 2 63.00 37.40 0.69 7.02 14.7
1 3 50.00 30.00 0.00 1.09 15.8
1 4 48.90 26.60 0.00 0.71 16.5
1 5 44.60 15.10 0.00 0.00 16.5
1 6 23.00 10.90 0.02 0.00 16.5
1 7 37.90 6.80 0.00 0.00 16.5
1 8 59.00 24.80 0.00 3.98 20.5
1 9 81.00 33.10 0.00 14.64 35.1
1 10 66.90 46.40 0.00 11.65 46.8
1 11 80.60 42.10 0.00 16.69 63.5
1 12 67.00 37.00 0.00 8.80 72.3
1 13 39.90 30.00 0.04 0.00 72.3
1 14 34.00 32.00 0.76 0.00 72.3
1 15 40.00 32.00 0.75 0.00 72.3
1 16 57.20 33.80 0.00 3.98 76.3
1 17 55.40 33.10 0.07 3.18 79.4
1 18 57.20 41.00 0.32 4.97 84.4
1 19 64.90 39.20 0.00 8.25 92.6
1 20 63.00 39.00 0.01 7.31 100.0
1 21 62.10 39.20 0.06 6.92 106.9
1 22 61.00 35.10 0.00 5.76 112.6
1 23 73.90 30.90 0.00 10.95 123.6
1 24 66.20 36.00 0.00 8.25 131.8
1 25 48.20 30.00 0.00 0.58 132.4
1 26 48.90 21.00 0.00 0.63 133.1
1 27 46.40 24.10 0.00 0.15 133.2
1 28 53.60 21.00 0.00 1.93 135.1
1 29 64.40 24.80 0.00 6.10 141.2
1 30 70.00 28.00 0.00 8.81 150.0
1 31 75.00 32.00 0.00 11.64 161.7
2 1 63.00 35.60 0.00 6.73 168.4
2 2 45.00 23.00 0.00 0.00 168.4
2 3 46.40 23.00 0.00 0.15 168.6
2 4 57.20 33.80 0.00 3.98 172.5
2 5 79.00 32.00 0.00 13.49 186.0
2 6 77.00 37.00 0.00 13.55 199.6
2 7 75.90 42.10 0.00 14.36 213.9
2 8 80.60 41.00 0.00 16.34 230.3
2 9 69.80 32.00 0.00 9.26 239.5
2 10 88.00 44.60 0.00 21.32 260.9
2 11 91.40 42.80 0.00 21.91 282.8
2 12 66.90 42.10 0.00 9.93 292.7
2 13 44.60 33.80 0.87 0.00 292.7
2 14 39.20 35.60 0.02 0.00 292.7
2 15 57.20 30.20 0.00 3.67 296.4
2 16 66.00 28.40 0.00 7.13 303.5
2 17 73.40 39.00 0.00 12.28 315.8
2 18 71.60 33.80 0.00 10.37 326.1
2 19 70.00 46.00 0.00 13.00 339.1
2 20 71.60 39.20 0.00 11.46 350.6
2 21 77.00 32.00 0.00 12.56 363.2
2 22 84.90 44.10 0.00 19.56 382.7
2 23 80.60 46.40 0.00 18.50 401.2
2 24 57.90 30.00 0.00 3.93 405.1
2 25 53.10 24.80 0.00 1.90 407.0
2 26 68.00 30.20 0.00 8.21 415.3
2 27 75.20 32.00 0.00 11.73 427.0
2 28 75.90 52.00 0.00 18.95 445.9
3 1 57.90 28.40 0.00 3.81 449.7
3 2 63.00 26.60 0.00 5.69 455.4
3 3 63.00 37.40 0.00 7.02 462.4
3 4 69.80 37.40 0.00 10.20 472.6
3 5 80.60 51.10 0.00 20.85 493.5
3 6 82.40 52.00 0.00 22.20 515.7 Peak OW/1st gen. pheromone trap catch
3 7 62.60 33.80 0.00 6.30 522.0
3 8 80.60 39.00 0.00 15.78 537.8
3 9 87.80 55.00 0.00 26.40 564.2
3 10 64.00 42.10 0.00 8.50 572.7
3 11 64.90 39.20 0.01 8.25 580.9
3 12 63.00 35.10 0.00 6.65 587.6
3 13 64.90 37.40 0.00 7.90 595.5
3 14 79.00 37.00 0.00 14.51 610.0
3 15 70.00 33.80 0.00 9.64 619.6
3 16 87.80 50.00 0.00 23.90 643.5
3 17 87.80 44.60 0.00 21.22 664.7 Peak OW/1st gen. egg-laying
3 18 82.90 51.80 0.00 22.35 687.1
3 19 89.60 53.10 0.00 26.21 713.3
3 20 78.10 55.40 0.00 21.75 735.0
3 21 91.90 54.00 0.00 27.41 762.5
3 22 75.20 46.40 0.00 15.80 778.3
3 23 81.00 55.90 0.13 23.45 801.7
3 24 68.00 45.00 0.00 11.50 813.2
3 25 73.90 39.20 0.00 12.57 825.8
3 26 79.00 46.40 0.00 17.70 843.5
3 27 75.20 37.00 0.00 12.69 856.2
3 28 73.90 51.80 0.50 17.85 874.0
3 29 53.60 43.00 0.04 3.68 877.7
3 30 78.80 37.40 0.00 14.51 892.2 Peak 2nd gen. egg-hatch
3 31 80.60 44.60 0.00 17.62 909.8
4 1 53.60 44.10 0.01 3.97 913.8
4 2 54.00 42.10 0.00 3.67 917.5
4 3 81.00 39.20 0.00 16.03 933.5
4 4 73.40 36.60 0.00 11.74 945.2 Hx Hn
4 5 64.90 37.00 0.00 7.83 953.1
4 6 75.20 39.00 0.00 13.15 966.2
4 7 82.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 986.2
4 8 93.20 53.60 0.00 27.59 1013.8
4 9 89.60 57.20 0.00 28.25 1042.1
4 10 73.40 51.10 0.00 17.25 1059.3
4 11 75.90 46.00 0.00 15.95 1075.3
4 12 69.80 51.80 0.81 15.80 1091.1
4 13 73.40 53.60 0.59 18.50 1109.6
4 14 75.90 57.20 0.00 21.55 1131.1
4 15 82.90 60.80 0.00 26.85 1158.0
4 16 84.20 62.10 0.00 28.15 1186.1
4 17 82.40 51.80 0.01 22.10 1208.2
4 18 84.90 53.60 0.00 24.25 1232.5
4 19 91.40 60.10 0.00 30.27 1262.7 Peak 2nd gen. larvae
4 20 75.90 57.00 0.00 21.45 1284.2
4 21 88.00 50.00 0.00 24.00 1308.2
4 22 66.90 44.60 0.00 10.77 1318.9
4 23 71.60 39.00 0.00 11.41 1330.4
4 24 93.90 48.20 0.00 25.14 1355.5
4 25 88.00 60.80 0.00 29.40 1384.9
4 26 69.80 46.40 0.00 13.10 1398.0
4 27 89.60 41.00 0.00 20.67 1418.7
4 28 84.90 51.10 0.38 23.00 1441.7
4 29 54.00 37.00 0.13 2.96 1444.6
4 30 64.90 35.60 0.00 7.59 1452.2
5 1 79.00 39.20 0.00 15.05 1467.3
5 2 93.00 48.00 0.00 24.78 1492.1
5 3 73.40 51.10 0.00 17.25 1509.3
5 4 75.20 42.80 0.00 14.24 1523.6
5 5 84.20 44.60 0.00 19.42 1543.0
5 6 91.40 48.20 0.00 24.39 1567.4
5 7 89.60 55.00 0.00 27.15 1594.5
5 8 78.80 57.00 0.00 22.90 1617.4
5 9 80.60 62.60 0.45 26.60 1644.0
5 10 82.90 59.00 3.81 25.95 1670.0
5 11 77.00 51.80 0.00 19.40 1689.4
5 12 79.00 48.90 0.00 18.95 1708.3
5 13 87.80 55.90 0.00 26.85 1735.2
5 14 97.00 57.20 0.02 30.24 1765.4
5 15 93.90 62.10 0.00 31.90 1797.3
5 16 93.20 60.10 0.00 30.76 1828.1
5 17 86.00 57.00 0.00 26.50 1854.6
5 18 91.40 63.00 0.00 31.69 1886.3
5 19 82.40 53.10 0.00 22.75 1909.0 Peak 2nd gen. trap catch
5 20 78.80 46.00 0.00 17.40 1926.4
5 21 78.10 50.00 0.00 19.05 1945.5
5 22 80.10 53.10 0.00 21.60 1967.1
5 23 72.00 48.20 0.11 15.10 1982.2
5 24 89.60 46.00 0.00 22.67 2004.8
5 25 102.20 57.90 0.00 31.52 2036.3
5 26 96.80 59.00 0.00 31.05 2067.4
5 27 98.60 64.00 0.00 33.72 2101.1
5 28 84.90 55.00 0.00 24.95 2126.1
5 29 87.80 53.10 0.00 25.45 2151.5
5 30 88.00 55.00 0.00 26.50 2178.0
5 31 87.80 60.10 0.00 28.95 2207.0
6 1 82.90 60.10 0.00 26.50 2233.5
6 2 84.90 60.80 0.04 27.85 2261.3
6 3 86.00 62.60 0.03 29.30 2290.6
6 4 87.10 60.10 0.00 28.60 2319.2
6 5 91.40 59.00 0.00 29.73 2348.9
6 6 93.00 62.10 0.00 31.68 2380.6
6 7 90.00 62.10 0.08 30.82 2411.4
6 8 91.40 64.00 0.20 32.19 2443.6 Peak 3rd gen. egg-hatch
6 9 93.20 64.00 1.67 32.65 2476.3
6 10 100.40 71.60 0.00 37.37 2513.7
6 11 100.40 71.10 0.00 37.16 2550.8
6 12 100.40 71.10 0.00 37.16 2588.0
6 13 100.90 69.80 0.00 36.65 2624.6
6 14 100.90 68.00 0.00 35.87 2660.5
6 15 100.40 69.80 0.23 36.59 2697.1
6 16 102.20 71.10 0.00 37.36 2734.4
6 17 111.90 73.00 0.00 38.87 2773.3
6 18 89.60 68.00 0.00 33.61 2806.9
6 19 81.00 64.40 0.01 27.70 2834.6
6 20 98.10 73.00 0.00 37.70 2872.3
6 21 99.00 71.10 0.20 36.99 2909.3 Peak 3rd gen. larvae
6 22 99.00 69.10 0.00 36.10 2945.4
6 23 99.00 73.00 0.01 37.81 2983.2
6 24 82.40 62.10 0.00 27.25 3010.5
6 25 89.60 66.20 0.85 32.72 3043.2
6 26 82.90 60.10 5.54 26.50 3069.7
6 27 90.00 66.20 0.00 32.85 3102.6
6 28 96.80 72.00 0.00 37.09 3139.6
6 29 107.60 71.10 0.00 37.85 3177.5
6 30 100.40 69.10 1.00 36.29 3213.8
Forecast using: 1910 KLBB PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat33.6672 Long-101.8214 DD50
Light Brown Apple Moth model - OSU OIPMC model analysisLocation: 2017 KLBB Lubbock Int Apt 1910 KLBB PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 3-6-17 | 516 | Peak OW/1st gen. pheromone trap catch |
| 3-17-17 | 665 | Peak OW/1st gen. egg-laying |
| 3-30-17 | 892 | Peak 2nd gen. egg-hatch |
| 4-19-17 | 1263 | Peak 2nd gen. larvae |
| 5-19-17 | 1909 | Peak 2nd gen. trap catch |
| 6-8-17 | 2444 | Peak 3rd gen. egg-hatch |
| 6-21-17 | 2909 | Peak 3rd gen. larvae |
![degree-day graph of Light Brown Apple Moth [omnivorous] OSU OIPMC model analysis](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?4117651)
