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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: spongy moth from Jan 1 [oak-maple]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: Sheehan-simpl.
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 42 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 106 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 12 0
Model validation status: experimental
Region of known use: Midwest & PNW US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 346 DDs after Jan 1: 2% egg hatch
2. 596 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 1st instar
3. 871 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 2nd instar
4. 1052 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 3rd instar
5. 1274 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 4th instar
6. 1637 DDs after Jan 1: 2% pupation
7. 1727 DDs after Jan 1: Peak 5th and 6th instar
8. 2068 DDs after Jan 1: 50% pupation
9. 2180 DDs after Jan 1: 2% adult emergence
10. 2539 DDs after Jan 1: 50% adult emergence
11. 2646 DDs after Jan 1: Final 6th instars present
12. 3250 DDs after Jan 1: 98% adult emergence
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 CI173 CIMIS Torrey Pines CA Lat32.9006 Long:-117.2500 Elev:370
mn day max min precip DD42 CUMDD42 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 58.80 46.10 0.00 10.45 10.5 * START *
1 2 58.10 46.90 0.00 10.50 21.0
1 3 60.20 49.00 0.00 12.60 33.6
1 4 61.60 52.80 0.09 15.20 48.8
1 5 57.50 56.00 1.28 14.75 63.5
1 6 58.40 51.00 1.51 12.70 76.2
1 7 55.60 51.50 1.05 11.55 87.8
1 8 57.60 47.90 0.02 10.75 98.5
1 9 57.80 46.70 0.01 10.25 108.8
1 10 56.70 52.40 0.01 12.55 121.3
1 11 59.10 49.90 0.00 12.50 133.8
1 12 63.20 48.30 0.00 13.75 147.6
1 13 58.00 47.50 0.00 10.75 158.3
1 14 59.20 49.10 0.00 12.15 170.5
1 15 59.10 50.80 0.01 12.95 183.4
1 16 59.60 51.00 0.00 13.30 196.7
1 17 66.20 52.50 0.00 17.35 214.1
1 18 58.80 55.00 0.02 14.90 229.0
1 19 59.20 53.80 0.04 14.50 243.5
1 20 61.40 56.50 0.00 16.95 260.4
1 21 66.30 52.10 0.00 17.20 277.6
1 22 59.60 50.70 0.00 13.15 290.8
1 23 59.60 53.00 0.00 14.30 305.1
1 24 60.20 50.80 0.00 13.50 318.6
1 25 59.90 50.30 0.00 13.10 331.6
1 26 63.90 52.50 0.00 16.20 347.8 2% egg hatch
1 27 65.30 53.90 0.00 17.60 365.4
1 28 63.10 52.80 0.00 15.95 381.4
1 29 61.80 52.20 0.00 15.00 396.4
1 30 61.60 53.20 0.01 15.40 411.8
1 31 58.50 54.40 5.50 14.45 426.2
2 1 55.00 50.80 6.06 10.90 437.1
2 2 56.90 41.50 0.00 7.24 444.4
2 3 58.00 44.40 0.00 9.20 453.6
2 4 60.00 46.60 0.00 11.30 464.9
2 5 64.70 53.60 0.00 17.15 482.0
2 6 67.70 55.10 0.00 19.40 501.4
2 7 72.50 55.20 0.00 21.85 523.3
2 8 75.70 63.30 0.00 27.50 550.8
2 9 75.20 64.10 0.00 27.65 578.4
2 10 76.70 59.70 0.00 26.20 604.6 Peak 1st instar
2 11 75.30 62.70 0.00 27.00 631.6
2 12 70.70 60.50 0.00 23.60 655.2
2 13 60.10 50.80 0.00 13.45 668.7
2 14 64.70 51.30 0.00 16.00 684.7
2 15 74.20 62.20 0.00 26.20 710.9
2 16 73.20 63.70 0.00 26.45 737.3
2 17 72.30 59.90 0.00 24.10 761.4
2 18 63.10 56.10 0.00 17.60 779.0
2 19 61.30 53.40 0.00 15.35 794.4
2 20 61.70 52.20 0.00 14.95 809.3
2 21 61.50 52.30 0.00 14.90 824.2
2 22 61.70 50.30 0.00 14.00 838.2
2 23 65.30 55.50 0.00 18.40 856.6
2 24 70.00 62.00 0.00 24.00 880.6 Peak 2nd instar
2 25 70.00 57.40 0.00 21.70 902.3
2 26 63.70 54.70 0.00 17.20 919.5
2 27 63.10 54.80 0.00 16.95 936.5
2 28 60.50 55.50 0.00 16.00 952.5
2 29 60.00 54.70 0.00 15.35 967.8
3 1 60.80 54.70 0.00 15.75 983.6
3 2 60.70 55.70 0.00 16.20 999.8
3 3 62.00 54.80 0.00 16.40 1016.2
3 4 62.50 55.10 0.00 16.80 1033.0
3 5 63.80 57.30 0.00 18.55 1051.5
3 6 62.10 56.40 0.23 17.25 1068.8 Peak 3rd instar
3 7 57.60 49.70 0.47 11.65 1080.4
3 8 61.60 45.10 0.07 11.35 1091.8
3 9 62.70 51.30 0.00 15.00 1106.8
3 10 63.20 55.10 0.00 17.15 1123.9
3 11 63.50 54.20 0.03 16.85 1140.8
3 12 60.10 54.70 0.02 15.40 1156.2
3 13 61.30 52.50 0.00 14.90 1171.1
3 14 62.30 56.90 0.01 17.60 1188.7
3 15 62.20 54.60 0.00 16.40 1205.1
3 16 67.60 56.80 0.00 20.20 1225.3
3 17 62.70 57.20 0.00 17.95 1243.2
3 18 62.50 57.20 0.00 17.85 1261.1
3 19 60.70 56.20 0.00 16.45 1277.5 Peak 4th instar
3 20 61.90 56.20 0.00 17.05 1294.6
3 21 61.40 57.00 0.00 17.20 1311.8
3 22 61.50 55.90 0.00 16.70 1328.5
3 23 64.10 51.10 0.00 15.60 1344.1
3 24 65.50 57.20 0.00 19.35 1363.4
3 25 64.50 54.40 0.00 17.45 1380.9
3 26 63.10 57.40 0.00 18.25 1399.1
3 27 64.10 55.30 0.00 17.70 1416.8
3 28 60.00 55.30 0.00 15.65 1432.5
3 29 60.20 54.50 0.00 15.35 1447.8
3 30 60.90 50.10 0.00 13.50 1461.3
3 31 62.70 50.20 0.00 14.45 1475.8
4 1 63.20 54.80 0.00 17.00 1492.8
4 2 63.70 55.30 0.00 17.50 1510.3
4 3 61.00 54.10 0.00 15.55 1525.8
4 4 63.50 55.20 0.00 17.35 1543.2
4 5 63.70 53.20 0.00 16.45 1559.6
4 6 63.00 55.90 0.00 17.45 1577.1
4 7 61.80 58.70 0.32 18.25 1595.3
4 8 63.10 57.20 0.16 18.15 1613.5
4 9 64.30 56.80 0.00 18.55 1632.0
4 10 64.20 55.80 0.04 18.00 1650.0 2% pupation
4 11 63.30 55.40 0.00 17.35 1667.4
4 12 62.90 56.90 0.00 17.90 1685.3
4 13 62.40 57.90 0.00 18.15 1703.4
4 14 62.90 56.90 0.00 17.90 1721.3
4 15 64.70 54.60 0.00 17.65 1739.0 Peak 5th and 6th instar
4 16 69.50 56.10 0.00 20.80 1759.8
4 17 76.40 58.30 0.00 25.35 1785.1
4 18 75.60 60.10 0.00 25.85 1811.0
4 19 74.40 63.60 0.00 27.00 1838.0
4 20 71.50 61.50 0.00 24.50 1862.5
4 21 67.30 58.80 0.00 21.05 1883.5
4 22 65.80 58.80 0.00 20.30 1903.8
4 23 64.80 58.90 0.00 19.85 1923.7
4 24 65.20 56.10 0.00 18.65 1942.3
4 25 60.20 56.50 0.00 16.35 1958.7
4 26 64.40 52.40 0.00 16.40 1975.1
4 27 63.40 53.60 0.00 16.50 1991.6
4 28 61.50 55.40 0.00 16.45 2008.0
4 29 62.70 54.40 0.00 16.55 2024.6
4 30 61.80 55.00 0.01 16.40 2041.0
5 1 62.90 55.50 0.00 17.20 2058.2
5 2 64.50 55.40 0.00 17.95 2076.1 50% pupation
5 3 63.40 57.60 0.00 18.50 2094.6
5 4 62.40 57.30 0.00 17.85 2112.5
5 5 64.90 57.00 0.26 18.95 2131.4
5 6 63.80 56.00 0.97 17.90 2149.3
5 7 64.50 55.80 0.00 18.15 2167.5
5 8 64.60 56.20 0.00 18.40 2185.9 2% adult emergence
5 9 65.50 59.10 0.00 20.30 2206.2
5 10 64.60 59.90 0.00 20.25 2226.4
5 11 64.80 60.20 0.00 20.50 2246.9
5 12 62.30 59.40 0.00 18.85 2265.8
5 13 63.10 59.60 0.00 19.35 2285.1
5 14 61.80 59.40 0.00 18.60 2303.7
5 15 64.90 59.10 0.00 20.00 2323.7
5 16 63.40 58.60 0.00 19.00 2342.7
5 17 62.10 60.10 0.00 19.10 2361.8
5 18 65.80 60.50 0.00 21.15 2383.0
5 19 64.30 59.60 0.00 19.95 2402.9
5 20 63.20 58.50 0.00 18.85 2421.8
5 21 62.70 58.00 0.00 18.35 2440.1
5 22 63.70 55.10 0.00 17.40 2457.5
5 23 64.00 56.70 0.00 18.35 2475.9
5 24 64.80 59.30 0.00 20.05 2495.9
5 25 64.70 57.90 0.00 19.30 2515.2
5 26 64.50 57.20 0.00 18.85 2534.1
5 27 64.50 59.10 0.02 19.80 2553.9 50% adult emergence
5 28 63.70 60.30 0.00 20.00 2573.9
5 29 63.80 58.40 0.01 19.10 2593.0
5 30 65.40 59.60 0.11 20.50 2613.5
5 31 62.30 60.60 0.00 19.45 2632.9
6 1 67.90 59.90 0.00 21.90 2654.8 Final 6th instars present
6 2 66.10 59.10 0.00 20.60 2675.4
6 3 64.00 60.50 0.00 20.25 2695.7
6 4 65.80 59.70 0.00 20.75 2716.4
6 5 64.20 60.20 0.00 20.20 2736.6
6 6 65.20 60.60 0.00 20.90 2757.5
6 7 64.30 59.40 0.00 19.85 2777.4
6 8 65.20 60.20 0.00 20.70 2798.1
6 9 64.70 60.00 0.00 20.35 2818.4
6 10 66.70 60.70 0.00 21.70 2840.1
6 11 65.90 61.60 0.00 21.75 2861.9
6 12 64.60 58.70 0.00 19.65 2881.5
6 13 65.50 59.10 0.00 20.30 2901.8
6 14 63.60 60.70 0.00 20.15 2922.0
6 15 64.90 59.60 0.00 20.25 2942.2
6 16 67.10 58.80 0.00 20.95 2963.2
6 17 69.70 60.90 0.00 23.30 2986.5
6 18 72.40 61.60 0.00 25.00 3011.5
6 19 76.20 64.60 0.00 28.40 3039.9
6 20 77.60 67.30 0.00 30.45 3070.3
6 21 68.30 65.80 0.00 25.05 3095.4
6 22 69.90 65.50 0.00 25.70 3121.1
6 23 68.50 63.70 0.00 24.10 3145.2
6 24 67.10 63.10 0.00 23.10 3168.3
6 25 68.20 62.50 0.00 23.35 3191.6
6 26 69.20 61.90 0.01 23.55 3215.2
6 27 69.30 64.50 0.01 24.90 3240.1
6 28 68.40 65.10 0.01 24.75 3264.8 98% adult emergence
6 29 70.30 64.30 0.00 25.30 3290.1
6 30 69.10 64.60 0.00 24.85 3315.0
7 1 67.40 62.80 0.01 23.10 3338.1
7 2 68.30 62.20 0.00 23.25 3361.3
7 3 67.50 62.10 0.00 22.80 3384.1
7 4 68.30 62.70 0.00 23.50 3407.6
7 5 69.50 64.00 0.00 24.75 3432.4
7 6 67.70 63.10 0.00 23.40 3455.8
7 7 69.10 63.50 0.00 24.30 3480.1
7 8 69.80 64.30 0.00 25.05 3505.1
7 9 70.80 63.70 0.00 25.25 3530.4
7 10 70.60 65.00 0.02 25.80 3556.2
7 11 68.00 63.10 0.01 23.55 3579.7
7 12 68.80 62.80 0.00 23.80 3603.5
7 13 70.20 63.50 0.02 24.85 3628.4
7 14 70.40 63.70 0.01 25.05 3653.4
7 15 69.60 65.60 0.00 25.60 3679.0
7 16 69.60 65.20 0.01 25.40 3704.4
7 17 69.90 64.80 0.00 25.35 3729.8
7 18 69.20 64.80 0.00 25.00 3754.8
7 19 72.40 66.10 0.01 27.25 3782.0
7 20 74.40 66.20 0.00 28.30 3810.3
7 21 75.70 67.70 0.01 29.70 3840.0
7 22 76.60 68.40 0.00 30.50 3870.5
7 23 75.40 67.90 0.00 29.65 3900.2
7 24 73.30 66.80 0.00 28.05 3928.2
7 25 71.20 67.80 0.00 27.50 3955.7
7 26 74.00 67.80 0.00 28.90 3984.6
7 27 74.20 68.30 0.00 29.25 4013.9
7 28 74.80 68.40 0.00 29.60 4043.5
7 29 74.10 67.40 0.00 28.75 4072.2
7 30 74.50 66.60 0.00 28.55 4100.8
7 31 75.20 67.00 0.00 29.10 4129.9
8 1 74.20 67.40 0.01 28.80 4158.7
8 2 73.80 67.90 0.00 28.85 4187.5
8 3 73.20 66.60 0.00 27.90 4215.4
8 4 72.70 66.80 0.01 27.75 4243.2
8 5 71.00 68.50 0.00 27.75 4270.9
8 6 70.00 65.90 0.00 25.95 4296.9
8 7 71.40 65.60 0.00 26.50 4323.4
8 8 70.70 64.40 0.01 25.55 4348.9
8 9 69.60 64.10 0.00 24.85 4373.8
8 10 71.40 64.40 0.00 25.90 4399.7
8 11 70.80 66.60 0.00 26.70 4426.4
8 12 72.80 67.00 0.00 27.90 4454.3
8 13 73.00 66.80 0.00 27.90 4482.2
8 14 73.20 67.20 0.01 28.20 4510.4
8 15 73.70 68.30 0.01 29.00 4539.4
8 16 72.80 65.30 0.00 27.05 4566.4
8 17 71.60 64.80 0.00 26.20 4592.6
8 18 71.10 65.10 0.01 26.10 4618.7
8 19 71.00 65.40 0.00 26.20 4644.9
8 20 70.00 64.70 0.00 25.35 4670.3
8 21 71.60 64.70 0.00 26.15 4696.4
8 22 70.60 64.90 0.00 25.75 4722.2
8 23 70.40 62.90 0.00 24.65 4746.8
8 24 71.00 65.30 0.00 26.15 4773.0
8 25 68.60 63.80 0.04 24.20 4797.2
8 26 69.40 63.10 0.01 24.25 4821.4
8 27 72.90 64.10 0.00 26.50 4847.9 Vx
8 28 69.60 65.90 0.01 25.75 4873.7
8 29 70.60 65.40 0.00 26.00 4899.7
8 30 71.10 66.10 0.02 26.60 4926.3
8 31 70.50 65.30 0.00 25.90 4952.2
9 1 70.90 62.90 0.00 24.90 4977.1
9 2 69.20 63.50 0.01 24.35 5001.4
9 3 67.60 62.30 0.00 22.95 5024.4
9 4 68.60 62.50 0.00 23.55 5047.9
9 5 68.40 62.30 0.00 23.35 5071.3
9 6 70.20 60.10 0.00 23.15 5094.4
9 7 71.60 65.30 0.00 26.45 5120.9
9 8 69.90 65.00 0.00 25.45 5146.3
9 9 70.20 64.60 0.00 25.40 5171.7
9 10 69.00 64.70 0.00 24.85 5196.6
9 11 68.30 64.30 0.01 24.30 5220.9
9 12 67.90 63.20 0.01 23.55 5244.4
9 13 68.20 61.50 0.00 22.85 5267.3
9 14 68.10 58.80 0.00 21.45 5288.7
9 15 68.70 58.10 0.00 21.40 5310.1
9 16 67.50 58.60 0.00 21.05 5331.2
9 17 68.50 61.40 0.00 22.95 5354.1
9 18 64.40 60.30 0.00 20.35 5374.5
9 19 75.70 61.00 0.00 26.35 5400.8
9 20 76.40 68.90 0.19 30.65 5431.5
9 21 72.50 67.00 0.28 27.75 5459.2
9 22 70.00 61.30 0.00 23.65 5482.9
9 23 69.10 58.20 0.00 21.65 5504.5
9 24 75.00 62.50 0.00 26.75 5531.3
9 25 80.20 65.80 0.00 31.00 5562.3
9 26 98.80 72.10 0.00 43.45 5605.7 Vx
9 27 79.50 71.00 0.00 33.25 5639.0 Vn
9 28 78.30 69.90 0.00 32.10 5671.1
9 29 74.20 68.60 0.00 29.40 5700.5
9 30 72.50 66.70 0.00 27.60 5728.1
10 1 71.50 64.80 0.01 26.15 5754.2
10 2 69.90 63.60 0.01 24.75 5779.0
10 3 68.30 58.80 0.00 21.55 5800.5
10 4 73.30 58.90 0.00 24.10 5824.6 Vx
10 5 68.80 58.90 0.00 21.85 5846.5
10 6 69.70 58.90 0.00 22.30 5868.8
10 7 77.00 60.30 0.00 26.65 5895.4
10 8 76.70 65.20 0.00 28.95 5924.4
10 9 76.90 64.60 0.00 28.75 5953.1
10 10 70.80 63.00 0.00 24.90 5978.0
10 11 66.20 63.10 0.01 22.65 6000.7
10 12 67.40 60.10 0.00 21.75 6022.4
10 13 67.10 59.60 0.00 21.35 6043.8
10 14 66.80 62.50 0.00 22.65 6066.4
10 15 67.80 62.00 0.00 22.90 6089.3
10 16 68.80 62.80 0.00 23.80 6113.1
10 17 66.90 61.80 0.00 22.35 6135.5
10 18 68.20 59.60 0.00 21.90 6157.4
10 19 70.60 60.20 0.00 23.40 6180.8
10 20 83.20 63.90 0.00 31.55 6212.3
10 21 82.00 69.70 0.00 33.85 6246.2
10 22 72.40 67.10 0.00 27.75 6273.9
10 23 77.90 63.40 0.00 28.65 6302.6
10 24 68.40 62.70 0.00 23.55 6326.1
10 25 67.80 60.80 0.00 22.30 6348.4
10 26 68.00 59.90 0.00 21.95 6370.4
10 27 71.00 60.40 0.00 23.70 6394.1
10 28 70.10 63.70 0.00 24.90 6419.0
10 29 69.50 63.20 0.00 24.35 6443.3
10 30 67.70 62.20 0.02 22.95 6466.3
10 31 66.30 59.80 0.02 21.05 6487.3
11 1 66.10 56.30 0.00 19.20 6506.5
11 2 67.60 55.30 0.00 19.45 6526.0
11 3 71.30 60.80 0.01 24.05 6550.0
11 4 70.20 63.00 0.01 24.60 6574.6
11 5 65.80 55.80 0.02 18.80 6593.4
11 6 66.90 56.10 0.00 19.50 6612.9
11 7 65.80 56.90 0.00 19.35 6632.3
11 8 71.90 61.00 0.00 24.45 6656.7
11 9 92.50 65.60 0.02 37.05 6693.8 Vx
11 10 84.50 71.10 0.01 35.80 6729.6
11 11 81.90 66.40 0.01 32.15 6761.7
11 12 76.10 63.20 0.00 27.65 6789.4
11 13 76.50 63.60 0.02 28.05 6817.4
11 14 74.90 65.70 0.01 28.30 6845.7
11 15 66.90 59.10 0.00 21.00 6866.7
11 16 66.40 60.40 0.01 21.40 6888.1
11 17 65.40 54.70 0.00 18.05 6906.2
11 18 68.90 58.00 0.00 21.45 6927.6
11 19 67.60 55.80 0.03 19.70 6947.3
11 20 63.80 57.70 0.06 18.75 6966.1
11 21 62.90 57.50 0.42 18.20 6984.3
11 22 63.30 54.10 0.00 16.70 7001.0
11 23 63.10 53.00 0.00 16.05 7017.0
11 24 70.10 54.90 0.01 20.50 7037.5
11 25 69.30 57.80 0.00 21.55 7059.1
11 26 61.00 51.30 0.41 14.15 7073.2
11 27 59.90 53.60 0.66 14.75 7088.0
11 28 61.60 53.10 0.05 15.35 7103.3
11 29 64.00 49.90 0.00 14.95 7118.3
11 30 61.30 51.00 0.00 14.15 7132.4
Forecast using: 1910 CI173 PRISM_rev1_4km 2006-2015 AVERAGES Lat32.9006 Long-117.2500 DD50
spongy moth from Jan 1 model - Sheehan-simpl.Location: 2016 CI173 Torrey Pines CA 1910 CI173 PRISM_rev1_4km 2006-2015 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 1-26-16 | 348 | 2% egg hatch |
| 2-10-16 | 605 | Peak 1st instar |
| 2-24-16 | 881 | Peak 2nd instar |
| 3-6-16 | 1069 | Peak 3rd instar |
| 3-19-16 | 1278 | Peak 4th instar |
| 4-10-16 | 1650 | 2% pupation |
| 4-15-16 | 1739 | Peak 5th and 6th instar |
| 5-2-16 | 2076 | 50% pupation |
| 5-8-16 | 2186 | 2% adult emergence |
| 5-27-16 | 2554 | 50% adult emergence |
| 6-1-16 | 2655 | Final 6th instars present |
| 6-28-16 | 3265 | 98% adult emergence |
![degree-day graph of spongy moth from Jan 1 [oak-maple] Sheehan-simpl.](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3971192)
