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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Galerucella calmariensis [weed biocontrol]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis v2
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 100 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: under development
Region of known use: VA,OR,WA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 180 DDs after Jan 1 First OW adult egg-laying
2. 233 DDs after Jan 1 10% OW adult egg-laying
3. 461 DDs after Jan 1 Peak OW adult egg-laying
4. 755 DDs after Jan 1 Peak G1 larvae
5. 895 DDs after Jan 1 ca. 10% G1 teneral adults (daylength sens. stage)
6. 1616 DDs after Jan 1 Peak G1 adult egg-laying
7. 1836 DDs after Jan 1 ca. 10% G2 teneral adults (daylength sens. stage)
8. 1910 DDs after Jan 1 Peak G2 larvae
9. 2771 DDs after Jan 1 Peak G2 adult egg-laying
10. 2778 DDs after Jan 1 ca. 10% G3 teneral adults (daylength sens. stage)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 D9177 APRSWXNET DW9177 Tucson AZ Lat32.2167 Long:-110.8011 Elev:2697
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 53.00 40.00 0.07 0.63 0.6 * START *
1 2 56.00 36.00 0.00 1.44 2.1
1 3 64.00 36.00 0.00 4.46 6.5
1 4 67.00 40.00 0.00 6.19 12.7
1 5 67.00 41.00 0.00 6.34 19.1
1 6 61.00 41.00 0.00 3.70 22.8
1 7 71.00 38.00 0.00 7.70 30.4
1 8 78.00 43.00 0.00 11.86 42.3
1 9 75.00 50.00 0.00 12.50 54.8
1 10 70.00 42.00 0.00 7.87 62.7
1 11 68.00 41.00 0.00 6.79 69.5
1 12 72.00 39.00 0.00 8.30 77.8
1 13 70.00 39.00 0.00 7.39 85.2
1 14 70.00 49.00 0.59 9.59 94.7
1 15 49.00 45.00 0.28 0.00 94.7
1 16 58.00 42.00 0.01 2.55 97.3
1 17 62.00 37.00 0.01 3.73 101.0
1 18 62.00 40.00 0.00 4.02 105.0
1 19 56.00 41.00 0.02 1.69 106.7
1 20 54.00 45.00 0.39 1.19 107.9
1 21 55.00 41.00 0.24 1.32 109.2
1 22 62.00 35.00 0.00 3.57 112.8
1 23 68.00 40.00 0.17 6.64 119.5
1 24 53.00 36.00 0.13 0.54 120.0
1 25 53.00 29.00 0.00 0.46 120.5
1 26 55.00 26.00 0.00 0.90 121.3
1 27 55.00 28.00 0.00 0.93 122.3
1 28 59.00 30.00 0.00 2.20 124.5
1 29 69.00 31.00 0.00 6.05 130.5
1 30 75.00 43.00 0.00 10.42 141.0
1 31 73.00 36.00 0.00 8.31 149.3
2 1 74.00 36.00 0.00 8.76 158.0
2 2 73.00 39.00 0.00 8.75 166.8
2 3 75.00 40.00 0.00 9.84 176.6
2 4 75.00 39.00 0.00 9.67 186.3 First OW adult egg-laying
2 5 77.00 41.00 0.00 10.96 197.2
2 6 68.00 46.00 0.00 7.74 205.0
2 7 68.00 42.00 0.00 6.95 211.9
2 8 74.00 44.00 0.00 10.16 222.1
2 9 85.00 45.00 0.00 15.76 237.9 10% OW adult egg-laying
2 10 85.00 50.00 0.00 17.50 255.4
2 11 82.00 51.00 0.00 16.50 271.9
2 12 70.00 50.00 0.01 10.00 281.9
2 13 67.00 50.00 0.03 8.50 290.4
2 14 68.00 45.00 0.03 7.51 297.9
2 15 67.00 47.00 0.00 7.50 305.4
2 16 72.00 41.00 0.00 8.62 314.0
2 17 71.00 46.00 0.00 9.19 323.2
2 18 64.00 48.00 0.05 6.30 329.5
2 19 56.00 47.00 0.07 2.26 331.7
2 20 66.00 45.00 0.02 6.56 338.3
2 21 75.00 42.00 0.00 10.22 348.5
2 22 78.00 45.00 0.00 12.34 360.9
2 23 63.00 45.00 0.00 5.15 366.0
2 24 60.00 33.00 0.00 2.69 368.7
2 25 65.00 32.00 0.00 4.52 373.2
2 26 65.00 47.00 0.00 6.53 379.8
2 27 69.00 39.00 0.03 6.95 386.7
2 28 66.00 47.00 0.05 7.01 393.7
3 1 68.00 40.00 0.00 6.64 400.4
3 2 75.00 37.00 0.00 9.35 409.7
3 3 74.00 56.00 0.00 15.00 424.7
3 4 81.00 49.00 0.00 15.07 439.8
3 5 75.00 52.00 0.00 13.50 453.3
3 6 65.00 45.00 0.00 6.09 459.4
3 7 77.00 37.00 0.00 10.26 469.6 Peak OW adult egg-laying
3 8 85.00 42.00 0.00 14.99 484.6
3 9 86.00 47.00 0.00 16.86 501.5
3 10 89.00 48.00 0.00 18.69 520.2
3 11 86.00 54.00 0.00 20.00 540.2
3 12 85.00 50.00 0.00 17.50 557.7
3 13 88.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 576.7
3 14 86.00 51.00 0.00 18.50 595.2
3 15 88.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 616.2
3 16 88.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 637.2
3 17 90.00 53.00 0.00 21.50 658.7
3 18 92.00 54.00 0.00 23.00 681.7
3 19 92.00 54.00 0.00 23.00 704.7
3 20 93.00 62.00 0.00 27.50 732.2
3 21 91.00 58.00 0.00 24.50 756.7 Peak G1 larvae
3 22 83.00 55.00 0.00 19.00 775.7
3 23 66.00 49.00 0.00 7.60 783.3
3 24 74.00 43.00 0.00 9.95 793.2
3 25 80.00 42.00 0.00 12.59 805.8
3 26 77.00 49.00 0.00 13.08 818.9
3 27 79.00 49.00 0.10 14.08 833.0
3 28 69.00 47.00 0.10 8.48 841.4
3 29 77.00 46.00 0.00 12.12 853.6
3 30 85.00 48.00 0.00 16.70 870.3
3 31 66.00 47.00 0.00 7.01 877.3
4 1 66.00 43.00 0.00 6.19 883.5
4 2 75.00 40.00 0.00 9.84 893.3
4 3 81.00 49.00 0.00 15.07 908.4 ca. 10% G1 teneral adults (daylength sens. stage)
4 4 80.20 49.60 0.00 14.92 923.3 Hx Hn
4 5 82.50 62.00 0.00 22.25 945.6 Hx
4 6 90.00 52.30 0.00 21.15 966.7 Vn
4 7 89.00 53.00 0.00 21.00 987.7
4 8 90.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 1008.7
4 9 77.00 53.00 0.00 15.00 1023.7
4 10 83.00 46.00 0.00 15.06 1038.8
4 11 90.00 47.00 0.00 18.84 1057.6
4 12 89.00 50.00 0.00 19.50 1077.1
4 13 93.00 54.00 0.00 23.50 1100.6
4 14 89.00 53.00 0.00 21.00 1121.6
4 15 88.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 1141.6
4 16 89.00 50.00 0.00 19.50 1161.1
4 17 89.00 53.00 0.00 21.00 1182.1
4 18 90.00 54.00 0.00 22.00 1204.1
4 19 89.00 57.00 0.00 23.00 1227.1
4 20 88.00 53.00 0.00 20.50 1247.6
4 21 90.00 51.00 0.00 20.50 1268.1
4 22 94.00 54.00 0.00 24.00 1292.1
4 23 97.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 1319.1
4 24 91.00 58.00 0.00 24.50 1343.6
4 25 81.00 61.00 0.00 21.00 1364.6
4 26 83.00 55.00 0.00 19.00 1383.6
4 27 89.00 60.00 0.00 24.50 1408.1
4 28 80.00 61.00 0.00 20.50 1428.6
4 29 71.00 52.00 0.00 11.50 1440.1
4 30 82.00 46.00 0.00 14.57 1454.7
5 1 88.00 51.00 0.00 19.50 1474.2
5 2 90.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 1495.2
5 3 94.00 57.00 0.00 25.50 1520.7
5 4 98.00 60.00 0.00 29.00 1549.7
5 5 102.00 66.00 0.00 33.80 1583.5
5 6 93.00 66.00 0.00 29.50 1613.0
5 7 79.00 58.00 0.00 18.50 1631.5 Peak G1 adult egg-laying
5 8 79.00 53.00 0.08 16.00 1647.5
5 9 67.00 50.00 0.01 8.50 1656.0
5 10 74.00 47.00 0.00 10.93 1666.9
5 11 86.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1684.9
5 12 96.00 61.00 0.00 28.50 1713.4
5 13 97.00 62.00 0.00 29.50 1742.9
5 14 91.00 59.00 0.00 25.00 1767.9
5 15 86.00 56.00 0.00 21.00 1788.9
5 16 73.00 55.00 0.00 14.00 1802.9
5 17 85.00 49.00 0.00 17.07 1820.0
5 18 82.00 67.00 0.00 24.50 1844.5 ca. 10% G2 teneral adults (daylength sens. stage)
5 19 82.00 54.00 0.00 18.00 1862.5
5 20 91.00 53.00 0.00 22.00 1884.5
5 21 96.00 58.00 0.00 27.00 1911.5 Peak G2 larvae
5 22 98.00 61.00 0.00 29.50 1941.0
5 23 99.00 63.00 0.00 31.00 1972.0
5 24 101.00 63.00 0.00 31.93 2003.9
5 25 95.00 67.00 0.00 31.00 2034.9
5 26 95.00 63.00 0.00 29.00 2063.9
5 27 94.00 58.00 0.00 26.00 2089.9
5 28 98.00 58.00 0.00 28.00 2117.9
5 29 99.00 61.00 0.00 30.00 2147.9
5 30 99.00 67.00 0.00 33.00 2180.9
5 31 99.00 71.00 0.00 35.00 2215.9
6 1 96.00 65.00 0.00 30.50 2246.4
6 2 97.00 60.00 0.00 28.50 2274.9
6 3 102.00 69.00 0.00 35.29 2310.2
6 4 103.00 72.00 0.00 37.10 2347.3
6 5 103.00 71.00 0.00 36.61 2383.9
6 6 104.00 73.00 0.00 37.88 2421.8
6 7 105.00 74.00 0.00 38.63 2460.4
6 8 101.00 74.00 0.00 37.42 2497.8
6 9 103.00 69.00 0.00 35.62 2533.5
6 10 102.00 67.00 0.00 34.30 2567.8
6 11 98.00 62.00 0.00 30.00 2597.8
6 12 96.00 63.00 0.00 29.50 2627.3
6 13 94.00 61.00 0.00 27.50 2654.8
6 14 103.00 60.00 0.00 31.16 2685.9
6 15 105.00 61.00 0.00 32.28 2718.2
6 16 104.00 62.00 0.00 32.47 2750.7
6 17 103.00 65.00 0.00 33.64 2784.3 ca. 10% G3 teneral adults (daylength sens. stage)
6 18 106.00 67.00 0.00 35.49 2819.8
6 19 113.00 70.00 0.00 38.36 2858.1
6 20 114.00 85.00 0.00 45.13 2903.3
6 21 114.00 84.00 0.00 44.71 2948.0
6 22 107.00 82.00 0.00 42.88 2990.9
6 23 107.00 81.00 0.00 42.41 3033.3
6 24 112.00 79.00 0.00 42.30 3075.6
6 25 110.00 86.00 0.00 45.13 3120.7
6 26 106.00 81.00 0.00 42.22 3162.9
6 27 106.00 78.00 0.00 40.79 3203.7
6 28 105.00 77.00 0.00 40.09 3243.8
6 29 105.00 75.00 0.00 39.12 3282.9
6 30 105.00 66.00 0.00 34.73 3317.7
Forecast using: 1910 D9177 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat32.2167 Long-110.8011 DD50
Galerucella calmariensis model - OSU OIPMC model analysis v2Location: 2017 D9177 DW9177 Tucson AZ 1910 D9177 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 2-4-17 | 186 | First OW adult egg-laying |
| 2-9-17 | 238 | 10% OW adult egg-laying |
| 3-7-17 | 470 | Peak OW adult egg-laying |
| 3-21-17 | 757 | Peak G1 larvae |
| 4-3-17 | 908 | ca. 10% G1 teneral adults (daylength sens. stage) |
| 5-7-17 | 1631 | Peak G1 adult egg-laying |
| 5-18-17 | 1844 | ca. 10% G2 teneral adults (daylength sens. stage) |
| 5-21-17 | 1911 | Peak G2 larvae |
| 6-17-17 | 2784 | Peak G2 adult egg-laying |
| 6-17-17 | 2784 | ca. 10% G3 teneral adults (daylength sens. stage) |
![degree-day graph of Galerucella calmariensis [weed biocontrol] OSU OIPMC model analysis v2](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3477139)
