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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: douglas-fir needle midge [fir]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 39 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 110 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: under development - unvalidated
Region of known use: now testing in W. Oregon
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 435 DDs after Jan 1: Approx. time to put up traps
2. 581 DDs after Jan 1: 5% adult catch in traps
3. 758 DDs after Jan 1: 50% or peak adult catch in traps
4. 927 DDs after Jan 1: 95% adult catch in traps
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 KHWD METAR Hayward Air Terminal CA Lat:37.6606 Long:-122.1181 Elev:46
mn day max min precip DD39 CUMDD39 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 54.00 44.60 0.07 10.30 10.3 * START *
1 2 52.00 44.00 0.02 9.00 19.3
1 3 56.00 48.00 0.26 13.00 32.3
1 4 57.20 46.90 0.17 13.05 45.3
1 5 52.00 39.00 0.23 6.50 51.8
1 6 52.00 35.10 0.00 5.36 57.2
1 7 62.60 44.60 0.43 14.60 71.8
1 8 63.00 57.20 0.48 21.10 92.9
1 9 60.80 53.10 0.15 17.95 110.9
1 10 60.80 53.60 0.98 18.20 129.1
1 11 58.00 46.40 0.07 13.20 142.3
1 12 53.60 44.10 0.13 9.85 152.1
1 13 55.40 37.40 0.00 7.60 159.7
1 14 57.20 37.40 0.00 8.49 168.2
1 15 55.40 37.40 0.00 7.60 175.8
1 16 55.90 37.90 0.00 8.02 183.8
1 17 55.40 39.20 0.00 8.30 192.1
1 18 54.00 46.40 0.60 11.20 203.3
1 19 57.00 50.00 0.18 14.50 217.8
1 20 55.40 46.40 0.74 11.90 229.7
1 21 57.20 48.00 0.50 13.60 243.3
1 22 57.90 46.40 0.46 13.15 256.5
1 23 54.00 44.60 0.05 10.30 266.8
1 24 55.90 39.20 0.00 8.55 275.3
1 25 55.90 37.00 0.00 7.73 283.1
1 26 59.00 42.00 0.00 11.50 294.6
1 27 57.90 39.00 0.00 9.45 304.0
1 28 63.00 37.40 0.00 11.37 315.4
1 29 61.00 39.00 0.00 11.00 326.4
1 30 61.00 39.90 0.00 11.45 337.8
1 31 60.80 39.00 0.00 10.90 348.7
2 1 62.60 46.00 0.02 15.30 364.0
2 2 64.90 51.80 0.28 19.35 383.4
2 3 63.00 57.00 0.31 21.00 404.4
2 4 63.00 51.10 0.00 18.05 422.4
2 5 62.60 48.20 0.35 16.40 438.8 Approx. time to put up traps
2 6 61.00 53.60 0.43 18.30 457.1
2 7 63.00 57.00 0.43 21.00 478.1
2 8 64.90 57.00 0.11 21.95 500.1
2 9 64.40 57.00 0.63 21.70 521.8
2 10 63.00 50.00 0.15 17.50 539.3
2 11 61.00 42.10 0.00 12.55 551.8
2 12 64.90 41.00 0.00 13.95 565.8
2 13 62.10 43.00 0.00 13.55 579.3
2 14 66.90 48.00 0.00 18.45 597.8 5% adult catch in traps
2 15 68.00 51.10 0.06 20.55 618.3
2 16 64.90 53.60 0.11 20.25 638.6
2 17 62.60 53.60 0.78 19.10 657.7
2 18 57.90 51.10 0.01 15.50 673.2
2 19 57.20 50.00 0.50 14.60 687.8
2 20 61.00 53.60 1.12 18.30 706.1
2 21 61.00 48.20 0.07 15.60 721.7
2 22 57.20 41.00 0.00 10.10 731.8
2 23 55.40 37.00 0.00 7.48 739.3
2 24 55.40 35.60 0.01 7.11 746.4
2 25 55.90 41.00 0.01 9.45 755.8
2 26 57.20 37.40 0.02 8.49 764.3 50% or peak adult catch in traps
2 27 55.90 42.10 0.22 10.00 774.3
2 28 57.90 37.40 0.00 8.84 783.2
3 1 62.60 41.00 0.00 12.80 796.0
3 2 66.90 41.00 0.00 14.95 810.9
3 3 64.90 44.10 0.00 15.50 826.4
3 4 62.60 51.10 0.39 17.85 844.3
3 5 54.00 42.10 0.15 9.05 853.3
3 6 57.00 42.10 0.01 10.55 863.9
3 7 61.00 42.10 0.00 12.55 876.4
3 8 66.20 44.10 0.00 16.15 892.6
3 9 71.60 48.20 0.00 20.90 913.5
3 10 69.80 53.10 0.00 22.45 935.9 95% adult catch in traps
3 11 68.00 50.00 0.00 20.00 955.9
3 12 73.40 48.00 0.00 21.70 977.6
3 13 75.20 48.00 0.00 22.60 1000.2
3 14 78.80 54.00 0.00 27.40 1027.6
3 15 64.90 51.80 0.00 19.35 1047.0
3 16 68.00 52.00 0.00 21.00 1068.0
3 17 75.20 48.20 0.00 22.70 1090.7
3 18 69.80 53.10 0.00 22.45 1113.1
3 19 64.90 55.00 0.00 20.95 1134.1
3 20 63.00 53.10 0.22 19.05 1153.1
3 21 68.00 57.20 0.45 23.60 1176.7
3 22 62.60 51.10 0.15 17.85 1194.6
3 23 62.60 44.10 0.00 14.35 1208.9
3 24 57.90 53.10 0.29 16.50 1225.4
3 25 64.00 51.80 0.00 18.90 1244.3
3 26 66.20 53.10 0.01 20.65 1265.0
3 27 64.40 50.00 0.00 18.20 1283.2
3 28 71.60 46.00 0.00 19.80 1303.0
3 29 66.90 50.00 0.00 19.45 1322.4
3 30 64.90 53.10 0.00 20.00 1342.4
3 31 75.20 51.10 0.00 24.15 1366.6
4 1 77.00 50.00 0.00 24.50 1391.1
4 2 75.20 53.60 0.00 25.40 1416.5
4 3 69.80 48.20 0.00 20.00 1436.5
4 4 64.60 46.20 0.00 16.40 1452.9 Hx Hn
4 5 75.20 54.00 0.00 25.60 1478.5
4 6 66.20 51.10 0.76 19.65 1498.1
4 7 66.20 50.00 0.45 19.10 1517.2
4 8 57.20 46.00 0.07 12.60 1529.8
4 9 62.60 42.80 0.00 13.70 1543.5
4 10 66.20 44.60 0.00 16.40 1559.9
4 11 66.90 55.00 0.00 21.95 1581.9
4 12 68.00 55.40 0.14 22.70 1604.6
4 13 62.10 50.00 0.01 17.05 1621.6
4 14 63.00 44.10 0.00 14.55 1636.2
4 15 69.80 44.60 0.00 18.20 1654.4
4 16 62.60 51.80 0.10 18.20 1672.6
4 17 66.20 55.00 0.08 21.60 1694.2
4 18 66.90 55.00 0.14 21.95 1716.1
4 19 69.80 51.10 0.22 21.45 1737.6
4 20 69.80 53.60 1.49 22.70 1760.3
4 21 75.20 50.00 0.00 23.60 1783.9
4 22 66.90 50.00 0.00 19.45 1803.3
4 23 64.90 51.80 0.00 19.35 1822.7
4 24 64.40 54.00 0.00 20.20 1842.9
4 25 64.90 53.10 0.00 20.00 1862.9
4 26 66.90 55.90 0.00 22.40 1885.3
4 27 68.00 53.10 0.00 21.55 1906.8
4 28 73.40 48.20 0.00 21.80 1928.6
4 29 80.60 54.00 0.00 28.30 1956.9
4 30 78.80 51.80 0.00 26.30 1983.2
5 1 90.00 55.00 0.00 33.50 2016.7
5 2 88.00 60.10 0.00 35.05 2051.8
5 3 91.90 60.80 0.00 37.35 2089.1
5 4 75.20 55.40 0.00 26.30 2115.4
5 5 66.90 54.00 0.00 21.45 2136.9
5 6 64.90 53.10 0.00 20.00 2156.9
5 7 72.00 53.10 0.00 23.55 2180.4
5 8 75.20 51.80 0.00 24.50 2204.9
5 9 82.40 53.60 0.00 29.00 2233.9
5 10 68.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 2256.4
5 11 70.00 53.60 0.00 22.80 2279.2
5 12 66.20 52.00 0.00 20.10 2299.3
5 13 66.20 50.00 0.00 19.10 2318.4
5 14 64.90 50.00 0.00 18.45 2336.9
5 15 66.20 52.00 0.00 20.10 2357.0
5 16 64.40 53.60 0.00 20.00 2377.0
5 17 70.00 53.10 0.00 22.55 2399.5
5 18 78.80 50.00 0.00 25.40 2424.9
5 19 84.90 55.00 0.00 30.95 2455.9
5 20 89.60 55.40 0.00 33.50 2489.4
5 21 84.90 55.90 0.00 31.40 2520.8
5 22 80.60 53.60 0.00 28.10 2548.9
5 23 73.90 55.00 0.00 25.45 2574.3
5 24 71.60 55.00 0.00 24.30 2598.6
5 25 69.80 57.20 0.00 24.50 2623.1
5 26 68.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 2645.8
5 27 68.00 55.40 0.00 22.70 2668.5
5 28 64.90 55.40 0.00 21.15 2689.7
5 29 62.60 53.60 0.00 19.10 2708.8
5 30 62.60 53.60 0.00 19.10 2727.9
5 31 71.60 55.00 0.00 24.30 2752.2
6 1 70.00 57.00 0.00 24.50 2776.7
6 2 77.00 55.40 0.00 27.20 2803.9
6 3 71.60 55.40 0.00 24.50 2828.4
6 4 68.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 2850.9
6 5 77.00 51.80 0.00 25.40 2876.3
6 6 66.20 53.60 0.00 20.90 2897.2
6 7 70.00 55.00 0.00 23.50 2920.7
6 8 71.10 60.80 0.01 26.95 2947.6
6 9 68.00 57.00 0.01 23.50 2971.1
6 10 70.00 55.00 0.00 23.50 2994.6
6 11 66.20 55.00 0.00 21.60 3016.2
6 12 69.80 53.60 0.00 22.70 3038.9
6 13 73.40 53.60 0.00 24.50 3063.4
6 14 78.80 55.00 0.00 27.90 3091.3
6 15 75.20 55.40 0.00 26.30 3117.6
6 16 81.00 60.80 0.00 31.90 3149.5
6 17 84.20 62.10 0.00 34.15 3183.7
6 18 100.40 69.10 0.00 45.75 3229.4
6 19 82.90 62.10 0.00 33.50 3262.9
6 20 82.40 60.10 0.00 32.25 3295.2
6 21 84.20 59.00 0.00 32.60 3327.8
6 22 93.20 63.00 0.00 39.10 3366.9
6 23 79.00 59.00 0.00 30.00 3396.9
6 24 73.90 60.10 0.00 28.00 3424.9
6 25 70.00 59.00 0.00 25.50 3450.4
6 26 73.90 60.80 0.00 28.35 3478.7
6 27 66.90 59.00 0.00 23.95 3502.7
6 28 69.10 57.90 0.00 24.50 3527.2
6 29 69.80 57.20 0.00 24.50 3551.7
6 30 66.90 57.00 0.00 22.95 3574.6
Forecast using: 1910 KHWD PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat37.6606 Long-122.1181 DD50
douglas-fir needle midge model - OSU OIPMC model analysisLocation: 2017 KHWD Hayward Air Terminal 1910 KHWD PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 2-5-17 | 439 | Approx. time to put up traps |
| 2-14-17 | 598 | 5% adult catch in traps |
| 2-26-17 | 764 | 50% or peak adult catch in traps |
| 3-10-17 | 936 | 95% adult catch in traps |
![degree-day graph of douglas-fir needle midge [fir] OSU OIPMC model analysis](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2533641)
