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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner and Hoyt 1987
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: Fully tested and in use
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 250 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
2. 360 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
3. 484 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
4. 610 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5. 800 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6. 1000 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
7. 1260 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
8. 1460 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
9. 1580 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
10. 1750 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
11. 2100 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
12. 2220 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
13. 2430 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
14. 2620 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 E0852 APRSWXNET EW0852 Vernon AL Lat33.7944 Long:-88.2092 Elev:372
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 1 82.00 46.00 0.00 14.57 14.6 * START *
4 2 85.00 47.00 2.60 16.36 30.9
4 3 78.00 59.00 0.01 18.50 49.4
4 4 75.50 49.10 0.00 12.37 61.8 Hx Hn
4 5 87.00 44.30 0.00 16.55 78.3 Hn
4 6 67.00 49.80 0.00 8.41 86.8 Vn
4 7 70.00 41.00 0.00 7.70 94.5
4 8 78.00 32.00 0.00 9.99 104.5
4 9 82.00 42.00 0.00 13.55 118.0
4 10 82.00 51.00 0.00 16.50 134.5
4 11 82.00 57.00 0.00 19.50 154.0
4 12 84.00 58.00 0.00 21.00 175.0
4 13 88.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 195.0
4 14 87.00 56.00 0.00 21.50 216.5
4 15 86.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 237.0
4 16 84.00 60.00 0.04 22.00 259.0 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
4 17 81.00 61.00 0.75 21.00 280.0
4 18 83.00 60.00 0.01 21.50 301.5
4 19 87.00 59.00 0.00 23.00 324.5
4 20 88.00 60.00 0.00 24.00 348.5
4 21 87.00 61.00 0.00 24.00 372.5 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
4 22 82.00 60.00 0.69 21.00 393.5
4 23 59.00 50.00 0.02 4.50 398.0
4 24 70.00 51.00 0.01 10.50 408.5
4 25 83.00 45.00 0.00 14.78 423.3
4 26 83.00 56.00 1.02 19.50 442.8
4 27 75.00 55.00 1.02 15.00 457.8
4 28 86.00 54.00 0.00 20.00 477.8
4 29 86.00 72.00 0.02 29.00 506.8 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
4 30 75.00 66.00 0.91 20.50 527.3
5 1 76.00 52.00 0.04 14.00 541.3
5 2 84.00 45.00 0.00 15.27 556.6
5 3 83.00 50.00 0.38 16.50 573.1
5 4 64.00 49.00 0.22 6.61 579.7
5 5 68.00 47.00 0.01 7.99 587.7
5 6 79.00 41.00 0.00 11.91 599.6
5 7 80.00 49.00 0.00 14.58 614.1 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5 8 86.00 44.00 0.00 15.98 630.1
5 9 88.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 650.1
5 10 90.00 56.00 0.00 22.79 672.9
5 11 84.00 62.00 0.09 23.00 695.9
5 12 81.00 63.00 1.86 22.00 717.9
5 13 78.00 57.00 0.01 17.50 735.4
5 14 86.00 49.00 0.01 17.57 753.0
5 15 88.00 52.00 0.00 20.00 773.0
5 16 90.00 56.00 0.00 22.79 795.8
5 17 88.00 64.00 0.08 26.00 821.8 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
5 18 84.00 68.00 0.08 26.00 847.8
5 19 91.00 66.00 0.08 28.05 875.8
5 20 86.00 67.00 0.69 26.50 902.3
5 21 86.00 66.00 0.05 26.00 928.3
5 22 80.00 64.00 0.41 22.00 950.3
5 23 77.00 64.00 0.31 20.50 970.8
5 24 71.00 56.00 0.04 13.50 984.3
5 25 79.00 50.00 0.00 14.50 998.8
5 26 88.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 1020.3 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
5 27 87.00 66.00 0.24 26.50 1046.8
5 28 85.00 64.00 0.03 24.50 1071.3
5 29 84.00 67.00 0.03 25.50 1096.8
5 30 84.00 64.00 0.02 24.00 1120.8
5 31 89.00 62.00 0.01 25.42 1146.2
6 1 82.00 63.00 0.07 22.50 1168.7
6 2 86.00 69.00 0.01 27.50 1196.2
6 3 88.00 65.00 0.03 26.50 1222.7
6 4 87.00 70.00 1.10 28.50 1251.2
6 5 82.00 71.00 0.48 26.50 1277.7 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
6 6 76.00 70.00 0.56 23.00 1300.7
6 7 83.00 61.00 0.01 22.00 1322.7
6 8 80.00 54.00 0.00 17.00 1339.7
6 9 85.00 53.00 0.00 19.00 1358.7
6 10 90.00 56.00 0.00 22.79 1381.5
6 11 91.00 64.00 0.00 27.07 1408.6
6 12 92.00 70.00 0.00 30.26 1438.9
6 13 91.00 68.00 0.00 29.03 1467.9 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
6 14 92.00 69.00 0.00 29.78 1497.7
6 15 89.00 67.00 0.75 27.91 1525.6
6 16 92.00 66.00 0.00 28.32 1553.9
6 17 91.00 63.00 0.04 26.58 1580.5 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
6 18 89.00 70.00 1.29 29.40 1609.9
6 19 85.00 70.00 0.01 27.50 1637.4
6 20 88.00 69.00 0.01 28.50 1665.9
6 21 78.00 70.00 1.34 24.00 1689.9
6 22 83.00 72.00 0.44 27.50 1717.4
6 23 83.00 74.00 0.96 28.50 1745.9
6 24 89.00 68.00 0.01 28.41 1774.3 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
6 25 80.00 63.00 0.00 21.50 1795.8
6 26 88.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 1817.3
6 27 89.00 60.00 0.00 24.42 1841.7
6 28 90.00 62.00 0.15 25.77 1867.5
6 29 84.00 70.00 0.28 27.00 1894.5
6 30 91.00 73.00 0.14 31.47 1926.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 E0852 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth model - Brunner and Hoyt 1987Location: 2017 E0852 EW0852 Vernon AL Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-16-17 | 259 | 1st generation, 3% egg hatch |
| 4-21-17 | 373 | 1st generation, 20% egg hatch |
| 4-29-17 | 507 | 1st generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 5-7-17 | 614 | 1st generation, 75% egg hatch |
| 5-17-17 | 822 | 1st generation, 95% egg hatch |
| 5-26-17 | 1020 | 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence |
| 6-5-17 | 1278 | 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch |
| 6-13-17 | 1468 | 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch |
| 6-17-17 | 1580 | 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 6-24-17 | 1774 | 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of codling moth [apple & pear] Brunner and Hoyt 1987](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3402722)
