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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner and Hoyt 1987
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: Fully tested and in use
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 250 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
2. 360 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
3. 484 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
4. 610 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5. 800 DDs after biofix: 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
6. 1000 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
7. 1260 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
8. 1460 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
9. 1580 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
10. 1750 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
11. 2100 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation, 99% egg hatch
12. 2220 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 3% egg hatch
13. 2430 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 20% egg hatch
14. 2620 DDs after biofix: 3rd generation, 50% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 D4408 APRSWXNET Demopolis DW4408 AL Lat32.5153 Long:-87.8386 Elev:121
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 1 83.00 52.00 0.00 17.50 17.5 * START *
4 2 84.00 53.00 1.60 18.50 36.0
4 3 78.00 60.00 1.60 19.00 55.0
4 4 75.80 53.60 0.00 14.70 69.7 Hx Hn
4 5 85.00 49.10 0.20 17.11 86.8 Hn
4 6 65.00 49.50 0.00 7.29 94.1 Vn
4 7 69.00 47.00 0.00 8.48 102.6
4 8 74.00 41.00 0.00 9.55 112.1
4 9 79.00 47.00 0.00 13.39 125.5
4 10 81.00 52.00 0.00 16.50 142.0
4 11 79.00 60.00 0.00 19.50 161.5
4 12 85.00 61.00 0.00 23.00 184.5
4 13 84.00 58.00 0.00 21.00 205.5
4 14 84.00 60.00 0.00 22.00 227.5
4 15 83.00 60.00 0.00 21.50 249.0
4 16 83.00 60.00 0.00 21.50 270.5 1st generation, 3% egg hatch
4 17 83.00 64.00 0.00 23.50 294.0
4 18 83.00 62.00 0.00 22.50 316.5
4 19 83.00 61.00 0.00 22.00 338.5
4 20 85.00 64.00 0.00 24.50 363.0 1st generation, 20% egg hatch
4 21 86.00 62.00 0.00 24.00 387.0
4 22 84.00 62.00 0.81 23.00 410.0
4 23 65.00 53.00 0.05 9.00 419.0
4 24 70.00 52.00 0.02 11.00 430.0
4 25 80.00 51.00 0.07 15.50 445.5
4 26 83.00 58.00 0.82 20.50 466.0
4 27 80.00 63.00 0.82 21.50 487.5 1st generation, 50% egg hatch
4 28 88.00 65.00 0.00 26.50 514.0
4 29 85.00 70.00 0.00 27.50 541.5
4 30 78.00 66.00 1.36 22.00 563.5
5 1 78.00 58.00 0.56 18.00 581.5
5 2 82.00 52.00 0.03 17.00 598.5
5 3 82.00 61.00 0.44 21.50 620.0 1st generation, 75% egg hatch
5 4 68.00 51.00 0.13 9.50 629.5
5 5 65.00 50.00 0.01 7.50 637.0
5 6 77.00 46.00 0.00 12.12 649.1
5 7 79.00 53.00 0.00 16.00 665.1
5 8 81.00 55.00 0.00 18.00 683.1
5 9 85.00 57.00 0.00 21.00 704.1
5 10 86.00 62.00 0.00 24.00 728.1
5 11 80.00 63.00 0.00 21.50 749.6
5 12 77.00 63.60 0.28 20.30 769.9 Pn
5 13 76.00 62.00 0.03 19.00 788.9
5 14 82.00 58.00 0.00 20.00 808.9 1st generation, 95% egg hatch
5 15 87.00 60.00 0.00 23.50 832.4
5 16 89.00 64.00 0.00 26.41 858.9
5 17 87.00 66.00 0.00 26.50 885.4
5 18 87.00 72.00 0.00 29.50 914.9
5 19 89.00 70.00 0.00 29.40 944.3
5 20 88.00 70.00 0.51 29.00 973.3
5 21 78.00 68.00 0.01 23.00 996.3
5 22 79.00 69.00 0.84 24.00 1020.3 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence
5 23 76.00 66.00 0.06 21.00 1041.3
5 24 71.00 59.00 0.01 15.00 1056.3
5 25 77.00 54.00 0.00 15.50 1071.8
5 26 87.00 59.00 0.00 23.00 1094.8
5 27 87.00 65.00 0.00 26.00 1120.8
5 28 84.00 70.00 0.00 27.00 1147.8
5 29 82.00 71.00 0.02 26.50 1174.3
5 30 81.00 70.00 0.02 25.50 1199.8
5 31 82.00 70.00 0.04 26.00 1225.8
6 1 81.00 68.00 0.07 24.50 1250.3
6 2 82.00 71.00 0.48 26.50 1276.8 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch
6 3 79.00 70.00 0.12 24.50 1301.3
6 4 85.00 72.00 0.19 28.50 1329.8
6 5 83.00 73.00 0.71 28.00 1357.8
6 6 79.00 72.00 0.03 25.50 1383.3
6 7 84.00 69.00 0.01 26.50 1409.8
6 8 81.00 62.00 0.00 21.50 1431.3
6 9 83.00 61.00 0.00 22.00 1453.3
6 10 87.00 66.00 0.00 26.50 1479.8 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch
6 11 90.00 69.00 0.03 29.24 1509.0
6 12 88.00 72.00 0.00 30.00 1539.0
6 13 86.00 73.00 0.00 29.50 1568.5
6 14 87.00 72.00 0.00 29.50 1598.0 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch
6 15 88.00 68.00 2.11 28.00 1626.0
6 16 87.00 68.00 0.75 27.50 1653.5
6 17 86.00 68.00 0.03 27.00 1680.5
6 18 87.00 73.00 0.00 30.00 1710.5
6 19 87.00 72.00 0.03 29.50 1740.0
6 20 82.00 73.00 1.79 27.50 1767.5 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch
6 21 75.00 70.00 2.48 22.50 1790.0
6 22 78.00 74.00 1.51 26.00 1816.0
6 23 88.00 73.00 1.72 30.50 1846.5
6 24 86.00 73.00 0.15 29.50 1876.0
6 25 82.00 69.00 0.00 25.50 1901.5
6 26 85.00 64.00 0.00 24.50 1926.0
6 27 87.00 68.00 0.00 27.50 1953.5
6 28 88.00 69.00 0.46 28.50 1982.0
6 29 78.00 73.00 0.36 25.50 2007.5
6 30 83.00 72.00 0.40 27.50 2035.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 D4408 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth model - Brunner and Hoyt 1987Location: 2017 D4408 Demopolis DW4408 AL Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-16-17 | 271 | 1st generation, 3% egg hatch |
| 4-20-17 | 363 | 1st generation, 20% egg hatch |
| 4-27-17 | 488 | 1st generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 5-3-17 | 620 | 1st generation, 75% egg hatch |
| 5-14-17 | 809 | 1st generation, 95% egg hatch |
| 5-22-17 | 1020 | 2nd generation, 5% adult emergence |
| 6-2-17 | 1277 | 2nd generation, 7% egg hatch |
| 6-10-17 | 1480 | 2nd generation, 30% egg hatch |
| 6-14-17 | 1598 | 2nd generation, 50% egg hatch |
| 6-20-17 | 1767 | 2nd generation, 75% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of codling moth [apple & pear] Brunner and Hoyt 1987](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3602046)
