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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth WSU [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Jones et al 2008
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: actively undergoing evaluation
Region of known use: support for use in WA only
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 175 DDs after Jan 1: Estimated first catch in Pheromone traps (biofix)
2. 395 DDs after Jan 1: 1st gen.: 1% egg hatch
3. 830 DDs after Jan 1: 1st gen:50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 37.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START *
1 2 37.90 21.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 3 37.00 19.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 4 37.00 30.00 0.04 0.00 0.0
1 5 37.00 33.10 0.08 0.00 0.0
1 6 46.00 28.90 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 7 41.00 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 8 46.90 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 9 46.00 26.10 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 10 44.10 28.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
1 11 46.90 24.10 0.10 0.00 0.0
1 12 55.00 37.00 0.23 1.15 1.2
1 13 55.00 42.10 0.01 1.38 2.5
1 14 48.00 30.90 0.00 0.00 2.5
1 15 42.10 26.10 0.14 0.00 2.5
1 16 53.10 39.00 0.21 0.63 3.2
1 17 53.10 42.10 0.20 0.72 3.9
1 18 52.00 44.10 0.04 0.44 4.3
1 19 48.90 41.00 0.02 0.00 4.3
1 20 48.90 41.00 0.28 0.00 4.3
1 21 60.10 42.10 0.10 3.44 7.8
1 22 59.00 41.00 0.44 2.86 10.6
1 23 45.00 39.00 0.07 0.00 10.6
1 24 48.00 36.00 0.07 0.00 10.6
1 25 48.00 33.10 0.00 0.00 10.6
1 26 54.00 43.00 0.31 1.07 11.7
1 27 61.00 45.00 0.07 4.23 15.9
1 28 59.00 44.10 0.16 3.20 19.1
1 29 46.90 42.10 0.41 0.00 19.1
1 30 45.00 36.00 0.19 0.00 19.1
1 31 43.00 39.90 0.12 0.00 19.1
2 1 43.00 37.00 0.15 0.00 19.1
2 2 45.00 35.10 0.00 0.00 19.1
2 3 46.90 37.90 0.13 0.00 19.1
2 4 48.90 44.10 0.08 0.00 19.1
2 5 60.10 41.00 0.22 3.32 22.4
2 6 48.90 33.10 0.00 0.00 22.4
2 7 48.00 32.00 0.01 0.00 22.4
2 8 59.00 36.00 0.00 2.50 24.9
2 9 61.00 32.00 0.00 3.00 27.9
2 10 57.00 39.00 0.10 1.94 29.9
2 11 54.00 36.00 0.43 0.82 30.7
2 12 55.90 46.00 0.93 2.08 32.8
2 13 50.00 44.10 0.04 0.00 32.8
2 14 53.10 45.00 0.74 0.85 33.6
2 15 53.10 46.00 1.31 0.91 34.5
2 16 54.00 45.00 0.03 1.19 35.7
2 17 53.10 45.00 0.87 0.85 36.6
2 18 52.00 46.00 0.09 0.51 37.1
2 19 51.10 46.00 0.08 0.22 37.3
2 20 48.90 37.00 0.04 0.00 37.3
2 21 48.00 33.10 0.04 0.00 37.3
2 22 50.00 32.00 0.04 0.00 37.3
2 23 55.00 30.00 0.00 0.97 38.3
2 24 59.00 37.90 0.00 2.62 40.9
2 25 60.10 36.00 0.00 2.91 43.8
2 26 57.00 35.10 0.12 1.74 45.5
2 27 53.10 46.00 0.04 0.91 46.5
2 28 54.00 45.00 0.07 1.19 47.6
2 29 52.00 42.10 0.01 0.39 48.0
3 1 57.90 43.00 0.56 2.60 50.6
3 2 57.00 45.00 0.09 2.44 53.1
3 3 55.90 48.00 0.04 2.39 55.5
3 4 57.90 44.10 0.15 2.72 58.2
3 5 64.00 46.90 0.07 6.02 64.2
3 6 59.00 44.10 0.09 3.20 67.4
3 7 48.00 42.10 0.43 0.00 67.4
3 8 51.10 39.90 0.00 0.15 67.5
3 9 57.00 42.10 0.51 2.15 69.7
3 10 57.90 46.00 0.05 2.97 72.7
3 11 53.10 39.00 0.24 0.63 73.3
3 12 52.00 45.00 0.05 0.47 73.8
3 13 50.00 43.00 0.19 0.00 73.8
3 14 48.00 42.10 0.05 0.00 73.8
3 15 50.00 41.00 0.10 0.00 73.8
3 16 48.90 36.00 0.03 0.00 73.8
3 17 55.90 34.00 0.00 1.34 75.1
3 18 60.10 36.00 0.00 2.91 78.0
3 19 61.00 37.90 0.00 3.41 81.4
3 20 55.90 46.90 0.08 2.20 83.6
3 21 57.90 46.90 0.25 3.12 86.7
3 22 55.90 46.00 0.01 2.08 88.8
3 23 51.80 46.00 0.20 0.44 89.3
3 24 50.00 45.00 0.03 0.00 89.3
3 25 54.00 37.90 0.00 0.87 90.1
3 26 57.90 37.90 0.44 2.20 92.3
3 27 50.00 43.00 0.21 0.00 92.3
3 28 55.90 37.90 0.04 1.49 93.8
3 29 63.00 36.00 0.00 4.05 97.9
3 30 64.00 37.00 0.00 4.55 102.4
3 31 68.00 39.90 0.00 6.62 109.1
4 1 60.10 46.90 0.00 4.15 113.2
4 2 55.90 46.90 0.01 2.20 115.4
4 3 68.00 41.00 0.84 6.79 122.2
4 4 57.00 46.00 0.04 2.57 124.8
4 5 54.00 46.00 0.12 1.27 126.0
4 6 64.90 50.00 0.00 7.45 133.5
4 7 71.10 48.90 0.00 10.10 143.6
4 8 64.90 44.10 0.00 5.88 149.5
4 9 61.00 43.00 0.00 3.94 153.4
4 10 59.00 44.10 0.00 3.20 156.6
4 11 57.00 48.90 0.00 3.12 159.7
4 12 55.90 44.10 1.39 1.88 161.6
4 13 55.90 44.10 0.05 1.88 163.5
4 14 50.00 44.10 0.01 0.00 163.5
4 15 55.90 43.00 0.00 1.79 165.3
4 16 64.00 39.90 0.00 4.86 170.1
4 17 70.00 41.00 0.00 7.70 177.8 Estimated first catch in Pheromone traps (biofix)
4 18 82.90 43.00 0.00 14.22 192.0
4 19 73.90 46.90 0.00 10.85 202.9
4 20 78.10 46.00 0.00 12.66 215.6
4 21 66.00 54.00 0.02 10.00 225.6
4 22 63.00 50.00 0.01 6.50 232.1
4 23 61.00 51.10 0.64 6.05 238.1
4 24 55.00 46.90 0.15 1.80 239.9
4 25 57.90 44.10 0.03 2.72 242.6
4 26 59.00 44.10 0.00 3.20 245.8
4 27 61.00 45.00 0.00 4.23 250.0
4 28 61.00 50.00 0.00 5.50 255.5
4 29 61.00 45.00 0.05 4.23 259.8
4 30 64.90 42.10 0.00 5.55 265.3
5 1 72.00 39.90 0.00 8.44 273.8
5 2 86.00 45.00 0.00 16.25 290.0
5 3 69.10 55.90 0.00 12.50 302.5
5 4 61.00 50.00 0.10 5.50 308.0
5 5 67.00 44.00 0.00 6.84 314.8
5 6 75.00 42.00 0.00 10.22 325.1
5 7 73.90 44.10 0.00 10.14 335.2
5 8 62.10 46.90 0.02 5.11 340.3
5 9 64.90 41.00 0.00 5.40 345.7
5 10 71.10 39.90 0.00 8.03 353.7
5 11 73.00 48.90 0.00 11.05 364.8
5 12 71.10 44.10 0.00 8.80 373.6
5 13 80.10 46.90 0.00 13.91 387.5
5 14 63.00 50.00 0.00 6.50 394.0
5 15 59.00 54.00 0.00 6.50 400.5 1st gen.: 1% egg hatch
5 16 62.10 54.00 0.00 8.05 408.5
5 17 69.10 52.00 0.00 10.55 419.1
5 18 62.10 50.00 0.19 6.05 425.1
5 19 57.90 45.00 0.09 2.83 428.0
5 20 64.90 46.00 0.01 6.25 434.2
5 21 60.10 50.00 0.01 5.05 439.3
5 22 64.90 54.00 0.00 9.45 448.7
5 23 61.00 53.10 0.01 7.05 455.8
5 24 64.90 54.00 0.00 9.45 465.2
5 25 66.00 52.00 0.00 9.00 474.2
5 26 59.00 52.00 0.08 5.50 479.7
5 27 60.10 48.90 0.10 4.65 484.4
5 28 59.00 48.90 0.45 4.11 488.5
5 29 64.00 50.00 0.01 7.00 495.5
5 30 70.00 43.00 0.00 8.06 503.5
5 31 75.90 46.00 0.00 11.58 515.1
6 1 70.00 57.00 0.08 13.50 528.6
6 2 64.90 57.00 0.03 10.95 539.6
6 3 77.00 55.90 0.00 16.45 556.0
6 4 82.00 54.00 0.00 18.00 574.0
6 5 84.90 55.90 0.00 20.40 594.4
6 6 80.10 59.00 0.00 19.55 614.0
6 7 73.00 53.10 0.00 13.05 627.0
6 8 61.00 55.90 0.04 8.45 635.5
6 9 64.00 53.10 0.00 8.55 644.0
6 10 64.00 52.00 0.10 8.00 652.0
6 11 60.10 48.00 0.00 4.40 656.4
6 12 64.90 48.90 0.00 7.02 663.4
6 13 61.00 50.00 0.05 5.50 668.9
6 14 60.10 48.90 0.00 4.65 673.6
6 15 64.00 45.00 0.00 5.62 679.2
6 16 64.90 45.00 0.00 6.04 685.2
6 17 71.10 42.10 0.02 8.40 693.6
6 18 57.90 53.10 0.39 5.50 699.1
6 19 69.10 50.00 0.00 9.55 708.7
6 20 70.00 48.00 0.00 9.26 717.9
6 21 64.00 55.90 0.00 9.95 727.9
6 22 71.10 51.10 0.10 11.10 739.0
6 23 63.00 54.00 0.11 8.50 747.5
6 24 64.90 52.00 0.00 8.45 755.9
6 25 70.00 53.10 0.00 11.55 767.5
6 26 77.00 48.90 0.00 13.04 780.5
6 27 77.00 55.00 0.00 16.00 796.5
6 28 69.10 55.90 0.00 12.50 809.0
6 29 66.90 57.00 0.00 11.95 821.0
6 30 66.00 55.00 0.00 10.50 831.5 1st gen:50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
7 1 69.80 55.40 0.00 12.60 844.1
7 2 70.00 57.00 0.00 13.50 857.6
7 3 69.80 57.00 0.19 13.40 871.0
7 4 66.20 55.00 0.01 10.60 881.6
7 5 63.00 51.80 0.19 7.40 889.0
7 6 72.00 48.00 0.00 10.25 899.2
7 7 66.20 55.00 0.13 10.60 909.8
7 8 73.40 60.10 0.20 16.75 926.6
7 9 70.00 57.00 1.42 13.50 940.1
7 10 72.00 55.40 0.00 13.70 953.8
7 11 69.80 57.00 0.04 13.40 967.2
7 12 72.00 55.40 0.20 13.70 980.9
7 13 72.00 55.40 0.00 13.70 994.6
7 14 73.40 53.10 0.00 13.25 1007.8
7 15 72.00 51.10 0.00 11.55 1019.4
7 16 71.60 55.90 0.00 13.75 1033.1
7 17 77.00 53.60 0.00 15.30 1048.4
7 18 72.00 55.00 0.00 13.50 1061.9
7 19 75.00 57.90 0.00 16.45 1078.4
7 20 77.00 57.00 0.00 17.00 1095.4
7 21 80.60 53.10 0.04 16.85 1112.2
7 22 71.60 60.80 0.00 16.20 1128.4
7 23 71.60 57.20 0.00 14.40 1142.8
7 24 78.10 51.80 0.00 14.95 1157.8
7 25 80.60 59.00 0.00 19.80 1177.6
7 26 70.00 59.00 0.00 14.50 1192.1
7 27 79.00 57.00 0.00 18.00 1210.1
7 28 80.10 59.00 0.00 19.55 1229.6
7 29 79.00 57.90 0.00 18.45 1248.1
7 30 75.90 57.00 0.00 16.45 1264.5
7 31 73.40 55.00 0.00 14.20 1278.7
8 1 72.00 51.10 0.00 11.55 1290.3
8 2 68.00 57.20 0.00 12.60 1302.9
8 3 73.00 54.00 0.02 13.50 1316.4
8 4 78.10 51.10 0.00 14.60 1331.0
8 5 72.00 53.10 0.00 12.55 1343.5
8 6 69.80 55.00 0.00 12.40 1355.9
8 7 68.00 53.10 0.00 10.55 1366.5
8 8 72.00 53.60 0.00 12.80 1379.3
8 9 64.90 59.00 0.00 11.95 1391.2
8 10 75.00 57.00 0.00 16.00 1407.2
8 11 77.00 53.60 0.00 15.30 1422.5
8 12 82.90 57.00 0.00 19.95 1442.5
8 13 84.20 60.10 0.00 22.15 1464.6
8 14 77.00 59.00 0.00 18.00 1482.6
8 15 75.20 57.00 0.00 16.10 1498.7
8 16 75.90 57.00 0.00 16.45 1515.2
8 17 75.90 54.00 0.00 14.95 1530.1
8 18 88.00 53.60 0.00 20.80 1550.9
8 19 89.60 60.10 0.00 24.69 1575.6
8 20 81.00 55.40 0.00 18.20 1593.8
8 21 66.90 57.00 0.00 11.95 1605.8
8 22 71.60 52.00 0.00 11.80 1617.6
8 23 73.90 46.00 0.00 10.60 1628.2
8 24 82.90 51.10 0.00 17.00 1645.2
8 25 84.90 53.60 0.00 19.25 1664.4
8 26 87.80 53.60 0.00 20.70 1685.1
8 27 69.80 60.10 0.00 14.95 1700.1
8 28 64.90 57.20 0.04 11.05 1711.1
8 29 75.00 57.00 0.00 16.00 1727.1
8 30 66.90 57.00 0.00 11.95 1739.1
8 31 64.90 57.00 0.23 10.95 1750.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth WSU model - Jones et al 2008Location: 2016 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 4-17-16 | 178 | Estimated first catch in Pheromone traps (biofix) |
| 5-15-16 | 400 | 1st gen.: 1% egg hatch |
| 6-30-16 | 831 | 1st gen:50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight |
![degree-day graph of codling moth WSU [apple & pear] Jones et al 2008](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2732647)
