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disease model of Spotts et al. 2000 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea disease degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: pear scab infection season [pear] Type: disease Model source/other links: Spotts et al. 2000 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 32 degrees Fahrenheit Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default) Directions for starting/BIOFIX: starting at bud swell stage Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 15 Ending date: 7 0 Model validation status: in use in W. Oregon Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 10 DD after bud swell Approx. start of pear scab infection season 2. 800 DD after bud swell Ascospore season continues: approx. half-way over 3. 1620 DD after bud swell Ca. 100% ascospores mature; 1st 0.01" of rain will 4. 1680 DD after bud swell Discharge remaining spores; end of primary infection season ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2017 KTUS METAR Tucson Int Apt AZ Lat:32.1314 Long:-110.9564 Elev:2546 mn day max min precip DD32 CUMDD32 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 3 15 91.40 57.00 0.00 42.20 42.2 * START * Approx. start of pear scab infection season 3 16 91.40 57.20 0.00 42.30 84.5 3 17 91.90 57.20 0.00 42.55 127.1 3 18 93.90 60.10 0.00 45.00 172.1 3 19 93.90 59.00 0.00 44.45 216.5 3 20 90.00 64.00 0.00 45.00 261.5 3 21 91.90 62.10 0.00 45.00 306.5 3 22 84.90 57.00 0.00 38.95 345.4 3 23 68.00 51.80 0.00 27.90 373.3 3 24 75.20 44.60 0.00 27.90 401.2 3 25 82.00 46.40 0.00 32.20 433.4 3 26 79.00 51.10 0.00 33.05 466.5 3 27 80.60 51.80 0.21 34.20 500.7 3 28 71.60 51.10 1.18 29.35 530.0 3 29 79.00 46.40 0.00 30.70 560.8 3 30 87.80 51.80 0.00 37.80 598.5 3 31 70.00 51.10 0.00 28.55 627.1 4 1 68.00 44.60 0.00 24.30 651.4 4 2 75.90 42.10 0.00 27.00 678.4 4 3 81.00 51.80 0.00 34.40 712.8 4 4 80.20 50.00 0.00 33.10 745.9 Hx Hn 4 5 86.00 60.80 0.00 41.40 787.3 4 6 91.40 51.80 0.00 39.60 826.9 Ascospore season continues: approx. half-way over 4 7 90.00 57.20 0.00 41.60 868.5 4 8 91.90 55.40 0.00 41.65 910.1 4 9 80.60 53.60 0.00 35.10 945.2 4 10 84.90 48.20 0.00 34.55 979.8 4 11 91.00 51.10 0.00 39.05 1018.8 4 12 91.00 55.00 0.00 41.00 1059.8 4 13 93.20 57.20 0.00 43.20 1103.0 4 14 90.00 55.90 0.00 40.95 1144.0 4 15 88.00 55.00 0.00 39.50 1183.5 4 16 90.00 55.40 0.00 40.70 1224.2 4 17 90.00 55.40 0.00 40.70 1264.9 4 18 91.90 57.00 0.00 42.45 1307.4 4 19 90.00 59.00 0.00 42.50 1349.9 4 20 90.00 57.20 0.00 41.60 1391.5 4 21 91.90 53.60 0.00 40.75 1432.2 4 22 95.00 57.00 0.00 44.00 1476.2 4 23 98.60 60.80 0.00 47.70 1523.9 4 24 93.20 64.00 0.00 46.60 1570.5 4 25 82.90 66.20 0.00 42.55 1613.0 4 26 84.90 55.40 0.00 38.15 1651.2 Ca. 100% ascospores mature; 1st 0.01" of rain will 4 27 90.00 64.40 0.00 45.20 1696.4 Discharge remaining spores; end of primary infection season 4 28 82.40 63.00 0.00 40.70 1737.1 4 29 73.40 53.10 0.00 31.25 1768.4 4 30 84.00 51.10 0.00 35.55 1803.9 5 1 89.60 55.00 0.00 40.30 1844.2 5 2 91.90 57.20 0.00 42.55 1886.8 5 3 96.10 62.60 0.00 47.35 1934.1 5 4 100.40 62.60 0.00 49.50 1983.6 5 5 104.00 66.00 0.00 53.00 2036.6 5 6 93.90 69.80 0.00 49.85 2086.4 5 7 81.00 62.10 0.00 39.55 2126.0 5 8 77.00 55.00 0.02 34.00 2160.0 5 9 68.00 51.80 0.11 27.90 2187.9 5 10 73.90 48.20 0.00 29.05 2217.0 5 11 87.80 53.60 0.00 38.70 2255.7 5 12 96.80 60.80 0.00 46.80 2302.5 5 13 97.00 63.00 0.00 48.00 2350.5 5 14 91.40 62.10 0.00 44.75 2395.2 5 15 87.80 62.10 0.00 42.95 2438.2 5 16 73.90 57.20 0.00 33.55 2471.7 5 17 86.00 51.80 0.00 36.90 2508.6 5 18 82.40 59.00 0.00 38.70 2547.3 5 19 82.90 57.20 0.00 38.05 2585.4 5 20 91.40 53.60 0.00 40.50 2625.9 5 21 97.00 59.00 0.00 46.00 2671.9 5 22 99.00 64.00 0.00 49.50 2721.4 5 23 100.90 66.20 0.00 51.55 2772.9 5 24 102.90 68.00 0.00 53.45 2826.4 5 25 96.80 75.20 0.00 54.00 2880.4 5 26 96.80 69.80 0.00 51.30 2931.7 5 27 96.80 60.80 0.00 46.80 2978.5 5 28 99.00 62.60 0.00 48.80 3027.3 5 29 100.90 64.00 0.00 50.45 3077.7 5 30 99.00 69.10 0.00 52.05 3129.8 5 31 99.00 75.20 0.00 55.10 3184.9 6 1 95.00 68.00 0.00 49.50 3234.4 6 2 98.60 62.60 0.00 48.60 3283.0 6 3 104.00 69.80 0.00 54.90 3337.9 6 4 104.00 71.10 0.00 55.55 3393.4 6 5 104.00 73.00 0.00 56.50 3449.9 6 6 105.80 73.40 0.00 57.60 3507.5 6 7 107.10 75.20 0.00 59.15 3566.7 6 8 102.20 77.00 0.00 57.60 3624.3 6 9 102.90 71.60 0.00 55.25 3679.5 6 10 102.20 71.10 0.00 54.65 3734.2 6 11 98.60 66.00 0.00 50.30 3784.5 6 12 96.80 69.10 0.00 50.95 3835.4 6 13 95.00 62.60 0.00 46.80 3882.2 6 14 102.90 61.00 0.00 49.95 3932.2 6 15 106.00 64.00 0.00 53.00 3985.2 6 16 105.80 68.00 0.00 54.90 4040.1 6 17 105.80 69.80 0.00 55.80 4095.9 6 18 108.00 71.10 0.00 57.55 4153.4 6 19 115.00 73.00 0.00 62.00 4215.4 6 20 116.10 87.10 0.00 69.60 4285.0 6 21 115.00 82.00 0.00 66.50 4351.5 6 22 109.40 86.00 0.00 65.70 4417.2 6 23 109.90 84.00 0.00 64.95 4482.2 6 24 113.00 82.40 0.00 65.70 4547.9 6 25 111.00 87.10 0.00 67.05 4614.9 6 26 107.60 82.40 0.00 63.00 4677.9 6 27 107.60 80.10 0.00 61.85 4739.8 6 28 106.00 81.00 0.00 61.50 4801.3 6 29 105.10 78.80 0.00 59.95 4861.2 6 30 106.00 69.80 0.00 55.90 4917.1 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KTUS PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021