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Output from uspest.org/wea disease degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: apple scab [apple]
Type: disease
Model source/other links: Gadoury et al 1995
Calculation method: simp avg/grow
Lower threshold: 32 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 110 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: bud break growth stage
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 15
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 200 DDs after bud break 7% ascospore maturation
2. 300 DDs after bud break 21% ascospore maturation
3. 500 DDs after bud break 60% ascospore maturation
4. 750 DDs after bud break 95% ascospore maturation
5. 900 DDs after bud break 100% ascospore maturation
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 C4999 APRSWXNET Montgomery CW4999 AL Lat32.3403 Long:-86.1400 Elev:233
mn day max min precip DD32 CUMDD32 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 15 49.00 32.00 0.00 8.50 8.5 * START *
3 16 55.00 28.00 0.00 9.50 18.0
3 17 74.00 43.00 0.01 26.50 44.5
3 18 71.00 53.00 0.02 30.00 74.5
3 19 72.00 42.00 0.00 25.00 99.5
3 20 82.00 46.00 0.00 32.00 131.5
3 21 86.00 59.00 0.00 40.50 172.0
3 22 80.00 58.00 0.00 37.00 209.0 7% ascospore maturation
3 23 78.00 53.00 0.00 33.50 242.5
3 24 80.00 61.00 0.00 38.50 281.0
3 25 81.00 58.00 0.70 37.50 318.5 21% ascospore maturation
3 26 81.00 56.00 0.04 36.50 355.0
3 27 83.00 65.00 0.00 42.00 397.0
3 28 82.00 67.00 0.00 42.50 439.5
3 29 86.00 63.00 0.00 42.50 482.0
3 30 82.00 59.00 0.43 38.50 520.5 60% ascospore maturation
3 31 77.00 59.00 0.00 36.00 556.5
4 1 82.00 51.00 0.00 34.50 591.0
4 2 88.00 53.00 0.81 38.50 629.5
4 3 71.00 59.00 0.43 33.00 662.5
4 4 77.50 54.60 0.00 34.05 696.5 Hx Hn
4 5 75.00 50.00 1.30 30.50 727.0 Hn
4 6 65.00 50.70 0.00 25.85 752.9 Vn 95% ascospore maturation
4 7 69.00 46.00 0.00 25.50 778.4
4 8 73.00 41.00 0.00 25.00 803.4
4 9 79.00 44.00 0.00 29.50 832.9
4 10 83.00 49.00 0.00 34.00 866.9
4 11 81.00 56.00 0.00 36.50 903.4 100% ascospore maturation
4 12 82.00 59.00 0.00 38.50 941.9
4 13 85.00 56.00 0.00 38.50 980.4
4 14 85.00 58.00 0.00 39.50 1019.9
4 15 84.00 59.00 0.00 39.50 1059.4
4 16 85.00 58.00 0.00 39.50 1098.9
4 17 85.00 63.00 0.00 42.00 1140.9
4 18 87.00 60.00 0.00 41.50 1182.4
4 19 85.00 63.00 0.01 42.00 1224.4
4 20 86.00 64.00 0.00 43.00 1267.4
4 21 87.00 64.00 0.00 43.50 1310.9
4 22 84.00 61.00 0.20 40.50 1351.4
4 23 67.00 56.00 0.02 29.50 1380.9
4 24 72.00 54.00 0.00 31.00 1411.9
4 25 80.00 53.00 0.00 34.50 1446.4
4 26 83.00 56.00 2.06 37.50 1483.9
4 27 82.00 68.00 2.06 43.00 1526.9
4 28 89.00 69.00 0.00 47.00 1573.9
4 29 88.00 68.00 0.00 46.00 1619.9
4 30 85.00 67.00 1.75 44.00 1663.9
5 1 78.00 59.00 0.47 36.50 1700.4
5 2 82.00 52.00 0.00 35.00 1735.4
5 3 85.00 57.00 0.33 39.00 1774.4
5 4 74.00 52.00 0.67 31.00 1805.4
5 5 56.00 49.00 0.02 20.50 1825.9
5 6 75.00 45.00 0.01 28.00 1853.9
5 7 77.00 53.00 0.00 33.00 1886.9
5 8 80.00 49.00 0.00 32.50 1919.4
5 9 86.00 55.00 0.00 38.50 1957.9
5 10 87.00 61.00 0.00 42.00 1999.9
5 11 83.00 62.00 0.00 40.50 2040.4
5 12 82.00 66.70 0.62 42.35 2082.8 Pn
5 13 81.00 63.00 0.62 40.00 2122.8
5 14 85.00 59.00 0.00 40.00 2162.8
5 15 87.00 61.00 0.00 42.00 2204.8
5 16 91.00 63.00 0.00 45.00 2249.8
5 17 90.00 65.00 0.24 45.50 2295.2
5 18 90.00 67.00 0.40 46.50 2341.8
5 19 91.00 69.00 0.00 48.00 2389.8
5 20 89.00 68.00 4.13 46.50 2436.2
5 21 83.00 72.40 4.13 45.70 2481.9 Pn
5 22 82.00 70.00 1.03 44.00 2525.9
5 23 75.00 67.00 0.10 39.00 2564.9
5 24 78.00 60.00 0.02 37.00 2601.9
5 25 75.00 57.00 0.02 34.00 2635.9
5 26 86.00 55.00 0.00 38.50 2674.4
5 27 86.00 61.00 0.00 41.50 2715.9
5 28 87.00 72.00 0.00 47.50 2763.4
5 29 85.00 69.00 0.04 45.00 2808.4
5 30 83.00 70.00 0.16 44.50 2852.9
5 31 80.00 69.00 0.16 42.50 2895.4
6 1 85.00 68.00 0.73 44.50 2939.9
6 2 87.00 69.00 0.21 46.00 2985.9
6 3 86.00 68.00 0.01 45.00 3030.9
6 4 87.00 72.00 0.09 47.50 3078.4
6 5 86.00 71.00 0.80 46.50 3124.9
6 6 81.00 69.00 0.42 43.00 3167.9
6 7 84.00 69.00 0.01 44.50 3212.4
6 8 84.00 63.00 0.00 41.50 3253.9
6 9 87.00 63.00 0.00 43.00 3296.9
6 10 88.00 67.00 0.00 45.50 3342.4
6 11 92.00 67.00 0.00 47.50 3389.9
6 12 90.00 70.00 0.67 48.00 3437.9
6 13 86.00 71.00 0.08 46.50 3484.4
6 14 86.00 70.00 0.00 46.00 3530.4
6 15 91.00 68.00 1.34 47.50 3577.9
6 16 84.00 68.00 0.15 44.00 3621.9
6 17 86.00 68.00 1.07 45.00 3666.9
6 18 81.00 71.00 1.07 44.00 3710.9
6 19 88.00 70.00 0.00 47.00 3757.9
6 20 79.00 71.00 0.95 43.00 3800.9
6 21 75.00 70.00 1.43 40.50 3841.4
6 22 82.00 73.00 0.66 45.50 3886.9
6 23 90.00 73.00 0.22 49.50 3936.4
6 24 89.00 72.00 0.13 48.50 3984.9
6 25 85.00 70.00 0.00 45.50 4030.4
6 26 87.00 65.00 0.00 44.00 4074.4
6 27 86.00 66.00 0.00 44.00 4118.4
6 28 90.00 67.00 0.02 46.50 4164.9
6 29 85.00 73.00 0.06 47.00 4211.9
6 30 84.00 73.00 1.45 46.50 4258.4
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 C4999 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
apple scab model - Gadoury et al 1995Location: 2017 C4999 Montgomery CW4999 AL Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
3-22-17 | 209 | 7% ascospore maturation |
3-25-17 | 318 | 21% ascospore maturation |
3-30-17 | 520 | 60% ascospore maturation |
4-6-17 | 753 | 95% ascospore maturation |
4-11-17 | 903 | 100% ascospore maturation |