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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: apple maggot 1st emerge [cherry, apple]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Jones et al 89
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 44 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 113 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: testing
Region of known use: Utah
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 1013 DD after Mar 1 First fly emerge (NY)
2. 1456 DD after Mar 1 First fly emerge (UT)
3. 1737 DD after Mar 1 First fly emerge (W. OR)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 KBLI METAR Bellingham Int Apt WA Lat:48.7989 Long:-122.5406 Elev:148
mn day max min precip DD44 CUMDD44 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 57.90 43.00 0.56 6.56 6.6 * START *
3 2 57.00 45.00 0.09 7.00 13.6
3 3 55.90 48.00 0.04 7.95 21.5
3 4 57.90 44.10 0.15 7.00 28.5
3 5 64.00 46.90 0.07 11.45 40.0
3 6 59.00 44.10 0.09 7.55 47.5
3 7 48.00 42.10 0.43 1.52 49.0
3 8 51.10 39.90 0.00 2.60 51.6
3 9 57.00 42.10 0.51 5.84 57.5
3 10 57.90 46.00 0.05 7.95 65.4
3 11 53.10 39.00 0.24 3.36 68.8
3 12 52.00 45.00 0.05 4.50 73.3
3 13 50.00 43.00 0.19 2.66 76.0
3 14 48.00 42.10 0.05 1.52 77.5
3 15 50.00 41.00 0.10 2.26 79.7
3 16 48.90 36.00 0.03 1.34 81.1
3 17 55.90 34.00 0.00 3.97 85.0
3 18 60.10 36.00 0.00 6.08 91.1
3 19 61.00 37.90 0.00 6.82 97.9
3 20 55.90 46.90 0.08 7.40 105.3
3 21 57.90 46.90 0.25 8.40 113.7
3 22 55.90 46.00 0.01 6.95 120.7
3 23 51.80 46.00 0.20 4.90 125.6
3 24 50.00 45.00 0.03 3.50 129.1
3 25 54.00 37.90 0.00 3.61 132.7
3 26 57.90 37.90 0.44 5.38 138.1
3 27 50.00 43.00 0.21 2.66 140.7
3 28 55.90 37.90 0.04 4.46 145.2
3 29 63.00 36.00 0.00 7.41 152.6
3 30 64.00 37.00 0.00 8.06 160.7
3 31 68.00 39.90 0.00 10.62 171.3
4 1 60.10 46.90 0.00 9.50 180.8
4 2 55.90 46.90 0.01 7.40 188.2
4 3 68.00 41.00 0.84 10.93 199.1
4 4 57.00 46.00 0.04 7.50 206.6
4 5 54.00 46.00 0.12 6.00 212.6
4 6 64.90 50.00 0.00 13.45 226.1
4 7 71.10 48.90 0.00 16.00 242.1
4 8 64.90 44.10 0.00 10.50 252.6
4 9 61.00 43.00 0.00 8.10 260.7
4 10 59.00 44.10 0.00 7.55 268.2
4 11 57.00 48.90 0.00 8.95 277.2
4 12 55.90 44.10 1.39 6.00 283.2
4 13 55.90 44.10 0.05 6.00 289.2
4 14 50.00 44.10 0.01 3.05 292.2
4 15 55.90 43.00 0.00 5.57 297.8
4 16 64.00 39.90 0.00 8.68 306.5
4 17 70.00 41.00 0.00 11.91 318.4
4 18 82.90 43.00 0.00 19.02 337.4
4 19 73.90 46.90 0.00 16.40 353.8
4 20 78.10 46.00 0.00 18.05 371.9
4 21 66.00 54.00 0.02 16.00 387.9
4 22 63.00 50.00 0.01 12.50 400.4
4 23 61.00 51.10 0.64 12.05 412.4
4 24 55.00 46.90 0.15 6.95 419.4
4 25 57.90 44.10 0.03 7.00 426.4
4 26 59.00 44.10 0.00 7.55 433.9
4 27 61.00 45.00 0.00 9.00 442.9
4 28 61.00 50.00 0.00 11.50 454.4
4 29 61.00 45.00 0.05 9.00 463.4
4 30 64.90 42.10 0.00 9.73 473.1
5 1 72.00 39.90 0.00 12.58 485.7
5 2 86.00 45.00 0.00 21.50 507.2
5 3 69.10 55.90 0.00 18.50 525.7
5 4 61.00 50.00 0.10 11.50 537.2
5 5 67.00 44.00 0.00 11.50 548.7
5 6 75.00 42.00 0.00 14.71 563.4
5 7 73.90 44.10 0.00 15.00 578.4
5 8 62.10 46.90 0.02 10.50 588.9
5 9 64.90 41.00 0.00 9.41 598.3
5 10 71.10 39.90 0.00 12.14 610.5
5 11 73.00 48.90 0.00 16.95 627.4
5 12 71.10 44.10 0.00 13.60 641.0
5 13 80.10 46.90 0.00 19.50 660.5
5 14 63.00 50.00 0.00 12.50 673.0
5 15 59.00 54.00 0.00 12.50 685.5
5 16 62.10 54.00 0.00 14.05 699.6
5 17 69.10 52.00 0.00 16.55 716.1
5 18 62.10 50.00 0.19 12.05 728.2
5 19 57.90 45.00 0.09 7.45 735.6
5 20 64.90 46.00 0.01 11.45 747.1
5 21 60.10 50.00 0.01 11.05 758.1
5 22 64.90 54.00 0.00 15.45 773.6
5 23 61.00 53.10 0.01 13.05 786.6
5 24 64.90 54.00 0.00 15.45 802.1
5 25 66.00 52.00 0.00 15.00 817.1
5 26 59.00 52.00 0.08 11.50 828.6
5 27 60.10 48.90 0.10 10.50 839.1
5 28 59.00 48.90 0.45 9.95 849.0
5 29 64.00 50.00 0.01 13.00 862.0
5 30 70.00 43.00 0.00 12.58 874.6
5 31 75.90 46.00 0.00 16.95 891.6
6 1 70.00 57.00 0.08 19.50 911.1
6 2 64.90 57.00 0.03 16.95 928.0
6 3 77.00 55.90 0.00 22.45 950.5
6 4 82.00 54.00 0.00 24.00 974.5
6 5 84.90 55.90 0.00 26.40 1000.9
6 6 80.10 59.00 0.00 25.55 1026.4 First fly emerge (NY)
6 7 73.00 53.10 0.00 19.05 1045.5
6 8 61.00 55.90 0.04 14.45 1059.9
6 9 64.00 53.10 0.00 14.55 1074.5
6 10 64.00 52.00 0.10 14.00 1088.5
6 11 60.10 48.00 0.00 10.05 1098.5
6 12 64.90 48.90 0.00 12.90 1111.4
6 13 61.00 50.00 0.05 11.50 1122.9
6 14 60.10 48.90 0.00 10.50 1133.4
6 15 64.00 45.00 0.00 10.50 1143.9
6 16 64.90 45.00 0.00 10.95 1154.9
6 17 71.10 42.10 0.02 12.81 1167.7
6 18 57.90 53.10 0.39 11.50 1179.2
6 19 69.10 50.00 0.00 15.55 1194.7
6 20 70.00 48.00 0.00 15.00 1209.7
6 21 64.00 55.90 0.00 15.95 1225.7
6 22 71.10 51.10 0.10 17.10 1242.8
6 23 63.00 54.00 0.11 14.50 1257.3
6 24 64.90 52.00 0.00 14.45 1271.7
6 25 70.00 53.10 0.00 17.55 1289.3
6 26 77.00 48.90 0.00 18.95 1308.2
6 27 77.00 55.00 0.00 22.00 1330.2
6 28 69.10 55.90 0.00 18.50 1348.7
6 29 66.90 57.00 0.00 17.95 1366.7
6 30 66.00 55.00 0.00 16.50 1383.2
7 1 69.80 55.40 0.00 18.60 1401.8
7 2 70.00 57.00 0.00 19.50 1421.3
7 3 69.80 57.00 0.19 19.40 1440.7
7 4 66.20 55.00 0.01 16.60 1457.3 First fly emerge (UT)
7 5 63.00 51.80 0.19 13.40 1470.7
7 6 72.00 48.00 0.00 16.00 1486.7
7 7 66.20 55.00 0.13 16.60 1503.3
7 8 73.40 60.10 0.20 22.75 1526.0
7 9 70.00 57.00 1.42 19.50 1545.5
7 10 72.00 55.40 0.00 19.70 1565.2
7 11 69.80 57.00 0.04 19.40 1584.6
7 12 72.00 55.40 0.20 19.70 1604.3
7 13 72.00 55.40 0.00 19.70 1624.0
7 14 73.40 53.10 0.00 19.25 1643.3
7 15 72.00 51.10 0.00 17.55 1660.8
7 16 71.60 55.90 0.00 19.75 1680.6
7 17 77.00 53.60 0.00 21.30 1701.9
7 18 72.00 55.00 0.00 19.50 1721.4
7 19 75.00 57.90 0.00 22.45 1743.8 First fly emerge (W. OR)
7 20 77.00 57.00 0.00 23.00 1766.8
7 21 80.60 53.10 0.04 22.85 1789.7
7 22 71.60 60.80 0.00 22.20 1811.9
7 23 71.60 57.20 0.00 20.40 1832.3
7 24 78.10 51.80 0.00 20.95 1853.2
7 25 80.60 59.00 0.00 25.80 1879.0
7 26 70.00 59.00 0.00 20.50 1899.5
7 27 79.00 57.00 0.00 24.00 1923.5
7 28 80.10 59.00 0.00 25.55 1949.1
7 29 79.00 57.90 0.00 24.45 1973.5
7 30 75.90 57.00 0.00 22.45 1996.0
7 31 73.40 55.00 0.00 20.20 2016.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KBLI PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
apple maggot 1st emerge model - Jones et al 89Location: 2016 KBLI Bellingham Int Apt Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 6-6-16 | 1026 | First fly emerge (NY) |
| 7-4-16 | 1457 | First fly emerge (UT) |
| 7-19-16 | 1744 | First fly emerge (W. OR) |
![degree-day graph of apple maggot 1st emerge [cherry, apple] Jones et al 89](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2746093)
