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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosoph overwint mortal [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis Calculation method: heating (power), chilling Lower threshold: 53 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 120 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date Starting/BIOFIX date: 11 15 No ending date, set to: default date 12 31 Model validation status: under development - use with caution Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 100 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: Urban places: 15.8%, open fields: 39% mortality 2. 300 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 53% (urban) to 82% (open) 3. 500 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 74% (urban) to 95% (open) 4. 750 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 87% (urban) to 98.9% (open) 5. 1000 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 94% (urban) to 99.8% (open) 6. 1250 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 97% (urban) to 99.95% (open) 7. 1500 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 98.6% (urban) to 99.99% (open) 8. 1750 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 99.3% (urban) to 99.998% or 2 out of 100,000 survive (open) 9. 2000 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 99.7% (urban) to 99.9995% or 5 out of 1 million survive (open) 10. 2500 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 99.92% (urban) to 99.99998% or 2 out of 10 million survive (open) ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 1000 none selected mn day max min precip DD53 CUMDD53 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------