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insect model of Rice et al 1982 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: San Jose scale [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Rice et al 1982 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 51 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 90 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first male scale from overwintering generation Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 15 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 305 DD after 1st male from OW gen: 100 degree-days until first crawler 2. 405 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First crawler emergence 3. 605 DD after 1st male from OW gen: UC Davis rec. crawler treatment 4. 723 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First second instars 5. 936 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First pupae 6. 1031 DD after 1st male from OW gen: 1st male catch next generation 7. 1050 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First mating next generation 8. 1455 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First crawlers second generation ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF24644 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Fuji OR Lat45.9431 Long:-118.4389 Elev:941 mn day max min precip DD51 CUMDD51 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 4 25 64.90 42.20 0.00 4.98 5.0 * START * 4 26 68.70 44.70 0.00 7.11 12.1 4 27 64.10 49.70 0.00 6.07 18.2 4 28 73.00 50.60 0.00 10.82 29.0 4 29 58.40 51.40 0.00 3.90 32.9 4 30 71.70 47.10 0.00 9.07 41.9 5 1 79.80 47.00 0.00 13.00 54.9 5 2 87.60 53.20 0.00 19.40 74.3 5 3 91.90 65.60 0.00 27.53 101.9 5 4 80.00 60.50 0.09 19.25 121.1 5 5 68.70 45.80 0.00 7.33 128.5 Hx Hn 5 6 80.00 54.20 0.00 16.10 144.6 5 7 86.20 55.70 0.00 19.95 164.5 5 8 77.20 53.90 0.00 14.55 179.1 5 9 66.10 46.90 0.00 6.32 185.4 5 10 73.30 43.00 0.00 8.94 194.3 5 11 80.80 46.50 0.00 13.35 207.7 Vx Vn 5 12 88.40 63.20 0.00 24.80 232.5 5 13 82.90 47.90 0.00 14.79 247.3 5 14 68.60 53.90 0.12 10.25 257.5 5 15 59.00 52.10 0.03 4.55 262.1 5 16 75.30 51.90 0.02 12.60 274.7 5 17 82.70 52.00 0.00 16.35 291.0 5 18 82.90 60.00 0.00 20.45 311.5 100 degree-days until first crawler 5 19 66.60 48.10 0.00 6.85 318.3 5 20 63.10 44.20 0.00 4.45 322.8 5 21 65.90 48.70 0.05 6.66 329.4 5 22 68.80 52.70 0.00 9.75 339.2 5 23 69.90 50.30 0.00 9.16 348.3 Vx 5 24 74.40 53.30 0.00 12.85 361.2 5 25 80.10 54.40 0.00 16.25 377.4 5 26 72.20 53.30 0.00 11.75 389.2 5 27 69.10 50.10 0.00 8.68 397.9 5 28 78.40 49.20 0.00 12.99 410.9 First crawler emergence 5 29 78.70 56.00 0.00 16.35 427.2 5 30 78.50 51.20 0.00 13.85 441.1 5 31 86.60 50.80 0.00 17.71 458.8 6 1 89.00 57.80 0.00 22.40 481.2 6 2 78.80 64.50 0.00 20.65 501.8 6 3 91.50 59.10 0.00 24.16 526.0 6 4 98.50 57.90 0.00 25.51 551.5 6 5 99.70 64.20 0.00 28.73 580.2 6 6 99.00 69.00 0.00 30.84 611.1 Vx UC Davis rec. crawler treatment 6 7 97.10 70.80 0.00 31.34 642.4 6 8 88.80 75.60 0.00 31.20 673.6 6 9 78.60 59.40 0.00 18.00 691.6 6 10 71.80 52.80 0.04 11.30 702.9 6 11 75.70 50.30 0.00 12.05 714.9 6 12 78.70 49.20 0.00 13.14 728.1 First second instars 6 13 76.00 58.30 0.00 16.15 744.2 6 14 71.50 50.30 0.00 9.95 754.2 6 15 68.90 46.10 0.00 7.49 761.7 6 16 72.00 49.20 0.01 9.82 771.5 6 17 79.10 49.80 0.00 13.55 785.0 6 18 69.10 54.60 0.09 10.85 795.9 6 19 78.80 46.90 0.00 12.48 808.4 6 20 81.50 52.50 0.00 16.00 824.4 Vx 6 21 81.30 58.40 0.00 18.85 843.2 6 22 87.80 54.20 0.00 20.00 863.2 6 23 83.30 61.10 0.00 21.20 884.4 6 24 74.50 54.60 0.00 13.55 898.0 6 25 81.20 52.80 0.00 16.00 914.0 6 26 91.60 54.90 0.00 22.11 936.1 First pupae 6 27 92.80 60.40 0.00 25.25 961.3 Vx Vn 6 28 93.50 68.70 0.00 29.53 990.9 6 29 94.00 67.90 0.00 29.27 1020.1 Vx 6 30 90.00 65.00 0.00 26.50 1046.6 Vx Vn 1st male catch next generation 7 1 90.70 64.60 0.00 26.60 1073.2 First mating next generation 7 2 89.50 62.80 0.00 25.15 1098.4 Vx Vn 7 3 85.30 68.30 0.00 25.80 1124.2 Vx 7 4 83.10 58.10 0.00 19.60 1143.8 7 5 81.50 57.20 0.00 18.35 1162.1 7 6 80.10 59.70 0.00 18.90 1181.0 7 7 81.40 62.20 0.00 20.80 1201.8 Vx 7 8 77.50 59.90 0.13 17.70 1219.5 Vx 7 9 77.50 57.30 0.07 16.40 1235.9 7 10 69.20 57.90 0.00 12.55 1248.5 7 11 81.50 58.90 0.00 19.20 1267.7 7 12 78.00 57.70 0.02 16.85 1284.5 7 13 83.30 57.70 0.00 19.50 1304.0 7 14 89.50 57.20 0.00 22.35 1326.4 Vx 7 15 81.00 60.20 0.00 19.60 1346.0 Vx 7 16 83.30 59.90 0.00 20.60 1366.6 Vx 7 17 87.40 60.50 0.00 22.95 1389.5 Vx 7 18 80.70 62.50 0.00 20.60 1410.1 Vx 7 19 79.40 61.70 0.00 19.55 1429.7 Vx 7 20 87.10 64.30 0.00 24.70 1454.4 Vx 7 21 94.50 60.00 0.00 25.55 1479.9 Vx First crawlers second generation 7 22 82.30 65.10 0.00 22.70 1502.6 Vx 7 23 86.50 58.20 0.00 21.35 1524.0 7 24 89.80 59.70 0.00 23.75 1547.7 Vx 7 25 96.30 65.50 0.00 28.66 1576.4 Vx 7 26 95.20 73.80 0.00 32.38 1608.8 Vx 7 27 96.30 68.80 0.00 30.24 1639.0 7 28 100.60 71.70 0.00 32.31 1671.3 7 29 101.40 70.90 0.00 32.07 1703.4 Vx 7 30 95.10 72.50 0.00 31.75 1735.2 7 31 86.50 62.30 0.00 23.40 1758.6 8 1 90.00 56.20 0.00 22.10 1780.7 Vx Vn 8 2 78.10 61.50 0.00 18.80 1799.5 Vx Vn 8 3 83.40 57.20 0.00 19.30 1818.8 Vx 8 4 92.30 54.80 0.00 22.31 1841.1 Vx Vn 8 5 93.90 63.60 0.00 27.15 1868.2 Vx 8 6 89.20 65.50 0.00 26.35 1894.6 8 7 82.70 63.50 0.00 22.10 1916.7 Vx 8 8 77.50 54.50 0.00 15.00 1931.7 8 9 74.00 57.50 0.00 14.75 1946.4 8 10 83.80 58.30 0.00 20.05 1966.5 Vx 8 11 89.80 60.00 0.00 23.90 1990.4 Vx 8 12 96.00 63.40 0.00 27.59 2017.9 8 13 98.00 65.80 0.00 29.16 2047.1 8 14 95.40 70.60 0.00 30.91 2078.0 Vx 8 15 95.40 62.60 0.00 27.05 2105.1 Vx Vn 8 16 96.80 67.80 0.00 29.87 2134.9 8 17 93.40 67.00 0.00 28.68 2163.6 8 18 97.30 69.00 0.00 30.53 2194.1 8 19 92.00 64.90 0.00 27.22 2221.4 8 20 95.70 65.30 0.00 28.43 2249.8 8 21 95.80 72.20 0.00 31.75 2281.5 8 22 83.50 58.10 0.00 19.80 2301.3 8 23 85.70 56.80 0.00 20.25 2321.6 8 24 86.30 61.90 0.00 23.10 2344.7 Vx 8 25 89.50 59.20 0.00 23.35 2368.0 8 26 94.50 61.00 0.00 26.04 2394.1 8 27 91.80 72.30 0.00 30.82 2424.9 8 28 88.80 66.90 0.00 26.85 2451.7 Vx 8 29 91.30 62.10 0.00 25.58 2477.3 Vx 8 30 81.70 67.20 0.00 23.45 2500.8 8 31 85.90 60.90 0.00 22.40 2523.2 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24644 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021