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insect model of Rice et al 1982 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: San Jose scale [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Rice et al 1982 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 51 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 90 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first male scale from overwintering generation Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 15 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: partly validated Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 305 DD after 1st male from OW gen: 100 degree-days until first crawler 2. 405 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First crawler emergence 3. 605 DD after 1st male from OW gen: UC Davis rec. crawler treatment 4. 723 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First second instars 5. 936 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First pupae 6. 1031 DD after 1st male from OW gen: 1st male catch next generation 7. 1050 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First mating next generation 8. 1455 DD after 1st male from OW gen: First crawlers second generation ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF22700 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Blue Mt Cherry OR Lat:45.9567 Long:-118.4367 Elev:869 mn day max min precip DD51 CUMDD51 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 4 25 65.00 43.20 0.00 5.16 5.2 * START * 4 26 67.30 42.50 0.00 6.09 11.3 4 27 61.70 48.50 0.00 4.57 15.8 4 28 70.90 48.60 0.00 9.09 24.9 4 29 57.40 51.80 0.00 3.60 28.5 4 30 67.50 47.20 0.01 7.06 35.6 5 1 79.30 39.30 0.00 11.07 46.6 5 2 85.60 43.70 0.00 14.97 61.6 5 3 89.00 62.10 0.00 24.55 86.2 5 4 76.40 54.70 0.11 14.55 100.7 5 5 69.20 45.90 0.00 7.59 108.3 Hx Hn 5 6 76.30 52.00 0.00 13.15 121.4 5 7 81.00 52.90 0.00 15.95 137.4 5 8 77.50 54.30 0.00 14.90 152.3 5 9 65.20 46.30 0.00 5.77 158.1 5 10 72.00 38.60 0.00 7.64 165.7 5 11 80.90 46.10 0.00 13.29 179.0 Vx Vn 5 12 83.10 57.50 0.00 19.30 198.3 5 13 77.80 47.80 0.00 12.25 210.6 5 14 68.40 53.70 0.10 10.05 220.6 5 15 59.60 51.20 0.04 4.40 225.0 5 16 71.10 51.10 0.03 10.10 235.1 5 17 75.90 49.00 0.00 11.68 246.8 5 18 81.00 59.20 0.00 19.10 265.9 5 19 66.20 49.50 0.00 7.04 272.9 5 20 62.00 43.90 0.00 3.92 276.9 5 21 62.70 45.90 0.03 4.53 281.4 5 22 67.80 52.60 0.00 9.20 290.6 5 23 70.50 51.50 0.00 10.00 300.6 Vx 5 24 70.80 51.20 0.00 10.00 310.6 100 degree-days until first crawler 5 25 74.50 52.00 0.00 12.25 322.8 5 26 69.40 52.40 0.00 9.90 332.7 5 27 66.90 49.00 0.00 7.24 340.0 5 28 71.90 47.50 0.00 9.27 349.2 5 29 75.60 54.60 0.00 14.10 363.3 5 30 73.40 47.40 0.00 9.98 373.3 5 31 81.30 44.70 0.00 13.13 386.4 6 1 82.40 51.40 0.00 15.90 402.3 6 2 76.80 64.20 0.00 19.50 421.8 First crawler emergence 6 3 84.70 57.50 0.00 20.10 441.9 6 4 90.90 52.90 0.00 20.84 462.8 6 5 92.60 55.50 0.00 22.76 485.5 6 6 99.80 64.50 0.00 28.89 514.4 Vx 6 7 97.80 64.50 0.00 28.51 542.9 6 8 89.90 69.60 0.00 28.75 571.7 6 9 79.70 59.60 0.00 18.65 590.3 6 10 69.80 53.00 0.06 10.40 600.7 6 11 71.50 50.90 0.00 10.20 610.9 UC Davis rec. crawler treatment 6 12 81.40 48.40 0.00 14.21 625.2 6 13 75.80 52.90 0.00 13.35 638.5 6 14 70.90 51.20 0.00 10.05 648.6 6 15 71.50 48.20 0.00 9.27 657.8 6 16 70.60 49.00 0.02 9.06 666.9 6 17 78.20 46.50 0.00 12.08 679.0 6 18 68.00 54.60 0.14 10.30 689.3 6 19 76.50 43.90 0.00 10.64 699.9 6 20 81.50 46.80 0.00 13.78 713.7 Vx 6 21 80.00 56.20 0.00 17.10 730.8 First second instars 6 22 84.30 50.20 0.00 16.30 747.1 6 23 79.00 61.30 0.00 19.15 766.2 6 24 71.00 52.90 0.02 10.95 777.2 6 25 79.60 52.40 0.00 15.00 792.2 6 26 87.00 50.10 0.00 17.61 809.8 6 27 89.30 52.10 0.00 19.70 829.5 6 28 90.70 63.60 0.00 26.10 855.6 6 29 88.30 60.80 0.00 23.55 879.1 6 30 87.90 63.50 0.00 24.70 903.8 7 1 86.70 58.50 0.00 21.60 925.4 7 2 88.20 62.20 0.00 24.20 949.6 First pupae 7 3 85.60 67.70 0.00 25.65 975.3 7 4 81.70 56.00 0.00 17.85 993.1 7 5 78.30 55.70 0.00 16.00 1009.1 7 6 77.70 59.70 0.00 17.70 1026.8 7 7 76.80 55.00 0.00 14.90 1041.7 1st male catch next generation 7 8 71.50 59.00 0.15 14.25 1056.0 First mating next generation 7 9 76.00 56.50 0.15 15.25 1071.2 7 10 65.70 56.60 0.00 10.15 1081.4 7 11 76.30 58.20 0.00 16.25 1097.6 7 12 75.00 57.30 0.04 15.15 1112.8 7 13 80.30 59.90 0.00 19.10 1131.9 7 14 84.70 54.10 0.00 18.40 1150.3 7 15 79.30 57.00 0.00 17.15 1167.4 7 16 80.30 59.70 0.00 19.00 1186.4 7 17 84.80 56.00 0.00 19.40 1205.8 7 18 78.90 58.60 0.00 17.75 1223.6 7 19 78.00 60.10 0.00 18.05 1241.6 7 20 79.80 60.00 0.00 18.90 1260.5 7 21 87.70 53.40 0.00 19.55 1280.1 7 22 80.00 64.10 0.00 21.05 1301.1 7 23 79.80 56.20 0.00 17.00 1318.1 7 24 86.10 52.20 0.00 18.15 1336.3 7 25 96.70 57.90 0.00 25.10 1361.4 Vx 7 26 90.00 69.00 0.00 28.50 1389.9 7 27 89.60 65.90 0.00 26.75 1416.6 7 28 92.10 63.60 0.00 26.61 1443.2 7 29 94.00 64.10 0.00 27.42 1470.7 First crawlers second generation 7 30 92.10 70.00 0.00 29.77 1500.4 7 31 86.10 61.60 0.00 22.85 1523.3 8 1 90.60 57.30 0.00 22.92 1546.2 Vx 8 2 80.80 58.10 0.00 18.45 1564.7 8 3 79.80 57.60 0.00 17.70 1582.4 8 4 89.40 52.60 0.00 20.00 1602.4 8 5 90.90 55.20 0.00 21.99 1624.3 8 6 88.90 62.20 0.00 24.55 1648.9 8 7 84.70 58.20 0.00 20.45 1669.3 8 8 77.90 55.00 0.00 15.45 1684.8 8 9 72.80 54.90 0.00 12.85 1697.6 8 10 84.60 57.10 0.00 19.85 1717.5 8 11 92.80 52.10 0.00 21.14 1738.6 8 12 91.70 54.80 0.00 22.09 1760.7 8 13 91.80 55.20 0.00 22.33 1783.1 8 14 91.00 60.90 0.00 24.87 1807.9 8 15 95.70 60.70 0.00 26.21 1834.1 Vx 8 16 90.80 59.90 0.00 24.30 1858.4 8 17 88.90 62.40 0.00 24.65 1883.1 8 18 89.10 60.00 0.00 23.55 1906.6 8 19 85.40 56.20 0.00 19.80 1926.4 8 20 90.00 55.20 0.00 21.60 1948.0 8 21 92.20 64.00 0.00 26.84 1974.9 8 22 77.50 55.60 0.00 15.55 1990.4 8 23 80.80 51.20 0.00 15.00 2005.4 8 24 86.90 52.20 0.00 18.55 2024.0 Vx 8 25 86.60 50.90 0.00 17.75 2041.7 8 26 88.30 51.50 0.00 18.90 2060.6 8 27 90.90 70.00 0.00 29.37 2090.0 8 28 89.10 63.80 0.00 25.45 2115.4 Vx 8 29 91.90 53.80 0.00 21.67 2137.1 Vx 8 30 77.70 59.70 0.00 17.70 2154.8 8 31 82.60 57.60 0.00 19.10 2173.9 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF22700 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021