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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner 1991
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 930 DD after biofix First moth catch
2. 1160 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence
3. 1280 DD after biofix First egg hatch
4. 1345 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch
5. 1430 DD after biofix 95% moth emergence
6. 2250 DD after biofix First moth catch (2nd flight)
7. 2750 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
8. 2870 DD after biofix First egg hatch (2nd gen)
9. 3025 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
10. 3300 DD after biofix 95% emergence (2nd flight)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24513 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burkes Wondra OR Lat45.9542 Long:-118.4481 Elev:839
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 64.40 40.70 0.00 11.56 11.6 * START *
3 2 65.30 41.90 0.00 12.60 24.2
3 3 68.20 43.10 0.00 14.65 38.8
3 4 70.00 33.50 0.00 12.22 51.0
3 5 65.50 48.50 0.00 16.00 67.0
3 6 65.70 47.50 0.00 15.60 82.6
3 7 58.50 42.30 0.00 9.40 92.0
3 8 59.00 36.70 0.00 7.67 99.7
3 9 58.70 42.90 0.00 9.80 109.5
3 10 63.60 49.00 0.00 15.30 124.8
3 11 48.50 35.20 0.00 2.56 127.4
3 12 50.30 40.20 0.00 4.35 131.7
3 13 60.50 37.20 0.00 8.51 140.2
3 14 55.50 39.10 0.00 6.58 146.8
3 15 53.00 39.70 0.00 5.52 152.3
3 16 64.30 39.00 0.00 10.89 163.2
3 17 65.60 33.30 0.00 10.09 173.3
3 18 66.10 27.90 0.00 9.38 182.7
3 19 71.40 34.20 0.00 13.06 195.7
3 20 65.60 37.90 0.00 11.19 206.9
3 21 65.00 42.60 0.00 12.80 219.7
3 22 52.70 43.50 0.00 7.10 226.8
3 23 60.90 45.30 0.00 12.10 238.9
3 24 55.40 47.00 0.00 10.20 249.1
3 25 56.10 43.10 0.00 8.60 257.7
3 26 62.90 40.40 0.00 10.69 268.4
3 27 56.60 48.40 0.00 11.50 279.9
3 28 51.50 39.40 0.00 4.70 284.6 Vx
3 29 63.00 35.30 0.00 9.27 293.9
3 30 64.50 35.10 0.00 9.95 303.8
3 31 71.10 44.80 0.00 16.95 320.8
4 1 76.20 44.00 0.00 19.10 339.9
4 2 75.50 51.20 0.00 22.35 362.2
4 3 75.20 48.90 0.00 21.05 383.3
4 4 59.40 47.70 0.00 12.55 395.8
4 5 60.50 43.80 0.00 11.15 407.0
4 6 71.70 39.20 0.00 14.63 421.6
4 7 74.00 38.30 0.00 15.47 437.1
4 8 77.10 44.80 0.00 19.95 457.0
4 9 80.80 57.10 0.00 27.95 485.0
4 10 73.20 50.80 0.00 21.00 506.0
4 11 75.70 47.70 0.00 20.70 526.7
4 12 66.40 51.80 0.00 18.10 544.8
4 13 64.00 48.30 0.00 15.15 559.9
4 14 62.60 44.80 0.00 12.70 572.6
4 15 64.60 45.70 0.00 14.15 586.8
4 16 70.10 39.50 0.00 13.94 600.7
4 17 75.20 39.30 0.00 16.41 617.1
4 18 79.00 39.90 0.00 18.53 635.7
4 19 81.80 45.00 0.00 22.40 658.1
4 20 84.80 44.20 0.00 23.50 681.6
4 21 79.00 55.60 0.00 26.30 707.9
4 22 76.80 55.60 0.00 25.20 733.1
4 23 70.50 53.30 0.00 20.90 754.0
4 24 66.40 51.90 0.00 18.15 772.1
4 25 64.90 43.20 0.00 13.05 785.2
4 26 66.00 45.80 0.00 14.90 800.1
4 27 60.80 50.10 0.00 14.45 814.5
4 28 70.50 51.50 0.00 20.00 834.5
4 29 59.00 52.00 0.00 14.50 849.0
4 30 68.50 48.80 0.00 17.65 866.7
5 1 78.00 41.00 0.00 18.50 885.2
5 2 85.50 46.30 0.00 24.88 910.0
5 3 90.90 62.10 0.00 34.34 944.4 First moth catch
5 4 79.70 59.00 0.00 28.35 972.7
5 5 69.20 44.90 0.00 16.05 988.8 Hx Hn
5 6 77.00 53.90 0.00 24.45 1013.2
5 7 82.90 53.50 0.00 27.20 1040.4
5 8 77.70 54.80 0.00 25.25 1065.7
5 9 65.90 48.00 0.00 15.95 1081.6
5 10 72.90 41.60 0.00 16.25 1097.9 Vx
5 11 81.10 46.00 0.00 22.55 1120.4 Vx Vn
5 12 85.70 62.30 0.00 32.95 1153.4
5 13 82.70 46.20 0.00 23.45 1176.8 50% moth emergence
5 14 68.70 54.80 0.00 20.75 1197.6
5 15 59.30 53.50 0.00 15.40 1213.0
5 16 70.90 53.20 0.00 21.05 1234.0
5 17 78.30 49.90 0.00 23.10 1257.1
5 18 83.60 60.80 0.00 31.20 1288.3 Vx First egg hatch
5 19 67.40 49.50 0.00 17.45 1305.8
5 20 62.30 44.80 0.00 12.55 1318.3
5 21 64.50 47.60 0.00 15.05 1333.4
5 22 69.70 53.70 0.00 20.70 1354.1 50% egg hatch
5 23 70.70 51.40 0.00 20.05 1374.1 Vx
5 24 73.80 53.00 0.00 22.40 1396.5
5 25 78.10 53.00 0.00 24.55 1421.1
5 26 72.50 55.50 0.00 23.00 1444.1 95% moth emergence
5 27 68.30 51.40 0.00 18.85 1462.9
5 28 75.60 50.10 0.00 21.85 1484.8
5 29 79.70 55.80 0.00 26.75 1511.5
5 30 76.30 50.00 0.00 22.15 1533.7
5 31 85.40 45.60 0.00 24.48 1558.2
6 1 86.10 52.70 0.00 28.32 1586.5
6 2 78.90 65.60 0.00 31.25 1617.7
6 3 87.00 59.90 0.00 32.22 1650.0
6 4 94.30 53.20 0.00 30.83 1680.8
6 5 95.80 55.60 0.00 32.25 1713.0
6 6 100.00 65.00 0.00 37.12 1750.2 Vx
6 7 100.00 68.10 0.00 38.44 1788.6
6 8 89.70 70.30 0.00 37.99 1826.6
6 9 81.00 61.00 0.00 30.00 1856.6
6 10 69.10 54.40 0.00 20.75 1877.3
6 11 72.20 51.20 0.00 20.70 1898.0
6 12 79.90 49.50 0.00 23.70 1921.7
6 13 77.10 56.60 0.00 25.85 1947.6
6 14 69.60 52.40 0.00 20.00 1967.6
6 15 68.60 48.30 0.00 17.45 1985.0
6 16 69.70 47.30 0.00 17.50 2002.5
6 17 79.10 47.00 0.00 22.05 2024.6
6 18 67.20 55.10 0.00 20.15 2044.7
6 19 78.20 45.00 0.00 20.60 2065.3
6 20 81.70 47.90 0.00 23.80 2089.1 Vx
6 21 79.70 58.10 0.00 27.90 2117.0
6 22 85.70 50.50 0.00 27.06 2144.1 Vx
6 23 80.10 62.30 0.00 30.20 2174.3
6 24 74.80 55.30 0.00 24.05 2198.3
6 25 81.50 53.50 0.00 26.50 2224.8 Vx
6 26 90.80 51.20 0.00 29.04 2253.9 First moth catch (2nd flight)
6 27 93.20 58.30 0.00 33.02 2286.9 Vx
6 28 95.00 68.30 0.00 37.94 2324.8
6 29 94.40 64.90 0.00 36.32 2361.2 Vx Vn
6 30 90.50 65.60 0.00 35.93 2397.1 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 34.57 2431.7 Vx Vn
7 2 89.80 62.80 0.00 34.42 2466.1 Vx Vn
7 3 85.60 65.00 0.00 34.26 2500.3 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.70 0.00 28.10 2528.4 Vx Vn
7 5 80.30 58.40 0.00 28.35 2556.8
7 6 80.60 60.50 0.00 29.55 2586.3 Vx
7 7 81.70 60.70 0.00 30.20 2616.5 Vx Vn
7 8 77.60 61.10 0.00 28.35 2644.9 Vx
7 9 78.00 57.80 0.00 26.90 2671.8 Vx
7 10 69.70 58.90 0.00 23.30 2695.1
7 11 78.50 59.70 0.00 28.10 2723.2
7 12 77.20 58.50 0.00 26.85 2750.0 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
7 13 83.20 59.70 0.00 30.45 2780.5 Vx
7 14 90.00 53.50 0.00 29.95 2810.4 Vx
7 15 81.40 59.30 0.00 29.35 2839.8 Vx
7 16 83.60 60.60 0.00 31.10 2870.9 Vx First egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 17 88.10 60.00 0.00 32.61 2903.5 Vx
7 18 80.80 62.40 0.00 30.60 2934.1 Vx
7 19 79.50 61.60 0.00 29.55 2963.7 Vx
7 20 87.70 63.10 0.00 34.02 2997.7 Vx
7 21 95.00 56.50 0.00 32.53 3030.2 Vx 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 22 82.60 64.30 0.00 32.45 3062.6 Vx Vn
7 23 85.20 58.50 0.00 30.84 3093.5
7 24 90.20 55.10 0.00 30.79 3124.3 Vx
7 25 96.70 60.10 0.00 34.49 3158.8 Vx
7 26 95.60 72.90 0.00 40.00 3198.8 Vx
7 27 96.60 70.00 0.00 38.88 3237.7
7 28 99.00 66.40 0.00 37.61 3275.3
7 29 101.90 67.00 0.00 38.17 3313.4 Vx 95% emergence (2nd flight)
7 30 94.80 76.30 0.00 41.33 3354.8 Vx
7 31 87.20 62.60 0.00 33.62 3388.4 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24513 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
Pandemis leafroller model - Brunner 1991Location: 2016 MF24513 Burkes Wondra OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-3-16 | 944 | First moth catch |
| 5-13-16 | 1177 | 50% moth emergence |
| 5-18-16 | 1288 | First egg hatch |
| 5-22-16 | 1354 | 50% egg hatch |
| 5-26-16 | 1444 | 95% moth emergence |
| 6-26-16 | 2254 | First moth catch (2nd flight) |
| 7-12-16 | 2750 | 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) |
| 7-16-16 | 2871 | First egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-21-16 | 3030 | 50% egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-29-16 | 3313 | 95% emergence (2nd flight) |
![degree-day graph of Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner 1991](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1637223)
