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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner 1991
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 930 DD after biofix First moth catch
2. 1160 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence
3. 1280 DD after biofix First egg hatch
4. 1345 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch
5. 1430 DD after biofix 95% moth emergence
6. 2250 DD after biofix First moth catch (2nd flight)
7. 2750 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
8. 2870 DD after biofix First egg hatch (2nd gen)
9. 3025 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
10. 3300 DD after biofix 95% emergence (2nd flight)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF22700 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Blue Mt Cherry OR Lat:45.9567 Long:-118.4367 Elev:869
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 63.00 41.00 0.05 11.00 11.0 * START *
3 2 61.70 44.00 0.00 11.85 22.9
3 3 63.80 44.20 0.05 13.00 35.9
3 4 64.60 33.40 0.00 9.63 45.5
3 5 65.40 49.50 0.01 16.45 61.9
3 6 66.40 48.30 0.03 16.35 78.3
3 7 57.30 41.80 0.00 8.55 86.8
3 8 54.60 34.10 0.00 5.11 91.9
3 9 58.90 43.80 0.02 10.35 102.3
3 10 64.50 48.60 0.00 15.55 117.8
3 11 49.20 33.10 0.04 2.64 120.5
3 12 52.10 39.70 0.00 5.08 125.6
3 13 62.30 37.00 0.02 9.34 134.9
3 14 53.20 41.10 0.00 6.15 141.1
3 15 51.60 39.70 0.00 4.83 145.9
3 16 56.90 38.10 0.00 6.99 152.9
3 17 55.50 33.50 0.00 5.43 158.3
3 18 58.10 29.10 0.00 5.99 164.3
3 19 64.10 32.10 0.00 9.15 173.4
3 20 60.90 37.80 0.12 8.86 182.3
3 21 66.50 42.50 0.13 13.50 195.8
3 22 53.00 43.10 0.11 7.05 202.9
3 23 61.90 45.30 0.00 12.60 215.5
3 24 57.60 47.10 0.00 11.35 226.8
3 25 57.70 42.10 0.00 8.90 235.7
3 26 63.60 37.80 0.00 10.18 245.9
3 27 59.40 45.70 0.00 11.55 257.4
3 28 53.40 39.50 0.00 5.66 263.1
3 29 64.20 35.30 0.00 9.85 273.0
3 30 65.60 35.10 0.00 10.47 283.4
3 31 73.90 45.10 0.00 18.50 301.9
4 1 78.20 45.20 0.00 20.70 322.6
4 2 79.60 51.20 0.00 24.40 347.0
4 3 76.80 48.80 0.00 21.80 368.8
4 4 61.60 46.80 0.08 13.20 382.0
4 5 66.50 42.50 0.00 13.50 395.5
4 6 75.90 39.10 0.00 16.68 412.2
4 7 75.00 36.20 0.00 15.33 427.5
4 8 80.20 44.10 0.00 21.15 448.7
4 9 83.10 55.00 0.00 28.05 476.7
4 10 76.00 49.90 0.00 21.95 498.7
4 11 79.60 46.00 0.00 21.80 520.5
4 12 69.00 50.90 0.01 18.95 539.4
4 13 64.90 48.30 0.02 15.60 555.0
4 14 63.60 43.90 0.03 12.75 567.8
4 15 67.20 44.30 0.01 14.75 582.5
4 16 70.80 39.30 0.00 14.22 596.8
4 17 76.90 38.10 0.00 16.84 613.6
4 18 80.60 39.10 0.00 19.02 632.6
4 19 84.30 44.00 0.00 23.15 655.8
4 20 83.20 43.60 0.00 22.40 678.2
4 21 80.10 53.70 0.00 25.90 704.1
4 22 77.90 52.90 0.00 24.40 728.5
4 23 70.50 51.20 0.00 19.85 748.3
4 24 66.00 51.00 0.00 17.50 765.8
4 25 65.00 43.20 0.00 13.10 778.9
4 26 67.30 42.50 0.00 13.90 792.8
4 27 61.70 48.50 0.00 14.10 806.9
4 28 70.90 48.60 0.00 18.75 825.7
4 29 57.40 51.80 0.00 13.60 839.3
4 30 67.50 47.20 0.01 16.35 855.6
5 1 79.30 39.30 0.00 18.45 874.1
5 2 85.60 43.70 0.00 23.62 897.7
5 3 89.00 62.10 0.00 33.89 931.6 First moth catch
5 4 76.40 54.70 0.11 24.55 956.1
5 5 69.20 45.90 0.00 16.55 972.7 Hx Hn
5 6 76.30 52.00 0.00 23.15 995.8
5 7 81.00 52.90 0.00 25.95 1021.8
5 8 77.50 54.30 0.00 24.90 1046.7
5 9 65.20 46.30 0.00 14.75 1061.4
5 10 72.00 38.60 0.00 14.57 1076.0
5 11 80.90 46.10 0.00 22.50 1098.5 Vx Vn
5 12 83.10 57.50 0.00 29.30 1127.8
5 13 77.80 47.80 0.00 21.80 1149.6
5 14 68.40 53.70 0.10 20.05 1169.6 50% moth emergence
5 15 59.60 51.20 0.04 14.40 1184.0
5 16 71.10 51.10 0.03 20.10 1204.1
5 17 75.90 49.00 0.00 21.45 1225.6
5 18 81.00 59.20 0.00 29.10 1254.7
5 19 66.20 49.50 0.00 16.85 1271.5
5 20 62.00 43.90 0.00 11.95 1283.5 First egg hatch
5 21 62.70 45.90 0.03 13.30 1296.8
5 22 67.80 52.60 0.00 19.20 1316.0
5 23 70.50 51.50 0.00 20.00 1336.0 Vx
5 24 70.80 51.20 0.00 20.00 1356.0 50% egg hatch
5 25 74.50 52.00 0.00 22.25 1378.2
5 26 69.40 52.40 0.00 19.90 1398.1
5 27 66.90 49.00 0.00 16.95 1415.1
5 28 71.90 47.50 0.00 18.70 1433.8 95% moth emergence
5 29 75.60 54.60 0.00 24.10 1457.9
5 30 73.40 47.40 0.00 19.40 1477.3
5 31 81.30 44.70 0.00 22.00 1499.3
6 1 82.40 51.40 0.00 25.90 1525.2
6 2 76.80 64.20 0.00 29.50 1554.7
6 3 84.70 57.50 0.00 30.10 1584.8
6 4 90.90 52.90 0.00 29.90 1614.7
6 5 92.60 55.50 0.00 31.56 1646.2
6 6 99.80 64.50 0.00 36.88 1683.1 Vx
6 7 97.80 64.50 0.00 36.63 1719.8
6 8 89.90 69.60 0.00 37.70 1757.5
6 9 79.70 59.60 0.00 28.65 1786.1
6 10 69.80 53.00 0.06 20.40 1806.5
6 11 71.50 50.90 0.00 20.20 1826.7
6 12 81.40 48.40 0.00 23.90 1850.6
6 13 75.80 52.90 0.00 23.35 1874.0
6 14 70.90 51.20 0.00 20.05 1894.0
6 15 71.50 48.20 0.00 18.85 1912.9
6 16 70.60 49.00 0.02 18.80 1931.7
6 17 78.20 46.50 0.00 21.35 1953.0
6 18 68.00 54.60 0.14 20.30 1973.3
6 19 76.50 43.90 0.00 19.20 1992.5
6 20 81.50 46.80 0.00 23.15 2015.7 Vx
6 21 80.00 56.20 0.00 27.10 2042.8
6 22 84.30 50.20 0.00 26.25 2069.0
6 23 79.00 61.30 0.00 29.15 2098.2
6 24 71.00 52.90 0.02 20.95 2119.1
6 25 79.60 52.40 0.00 25.00 2144.1
6 26 87.00 50.10 0.00 27.35 2171.5
6 27 89.30 52.10 0.00 29.07 2200.5
6 28 90.70 63.60 0.00 35.02 2235.6
6 29 88.30 60.80 0.00 33.06 2268.6 First moth catch (2nd flight)
6 30 87.90 63.50 0.00 34.27 2302.9
7 1 86.70 58.50 0.00 31.42 2334.3
7 2 88.20 62.20 0.00 33.72 2368.0
7 3 85.60 67.70 0.00 35.60 2403.6
7 4 81.70 56.00 0.00 27.85 2431.5
7 5 78.30 55.70 0.00 26.00 2457.5
7 6 77.70 59.70 0.00 27.70 2485.2
7 7 76.80 55.00 0.00 24.90 2510.1
7 8 71.50 59.00 0.15 24.25 2534.3
7 9 76.00 56.50 0.15 25.25 2559.6
7 10 65.70 56.60 0.00 20.15 2579.7
7 11 76.30 58.20 0.00 26.25 2606.0
7 12 75.00 57.30 0.04 25.15 2631.1
7 13 80.30 59.90 0.00 29.10 2660.2
7 14 84.70 54.10 0.00 28.40 2688.6
7 15 79.30 57.00 0.00 27.15 2715.8
7 16 80.30 59.70 0.00 29.00 2744.8
7 17 84.80 56.00 0.00 29.40 2774.2 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
7 18 78.90 58.60 0.00 27.75 2801.9
7 19 78.00 60.10 0.00 28.05 2830.0
7 20 79.80 60.00 0.00 28.90 2858.9
7 21 87.70 53.40 0.00 29.23 2888.1 First egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 22 80.00 64.10 0.00 31.05 2919.2
7 23 79.80 56.20 0.00 27.00 2946.2
7 24 86.10 52.20 0.00 28.07 2974.2
7 25 96.70 57.90 0.00 33.48 3007.7 Vx
7 26 90.00 69.00 0.00 37.44 3045.1 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 27 89.60 65.90 0.00 35.87 3081.0
7 28 92.10 63.60 0.00 35.31 3116.3
7 29 94.00 64.10 0.00 35.88 3152.2
7 30 92.10 70.00 0.00 38.28 3190.5
7 31 86.10 61.60 0.00 32.75 3223.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF22700 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
Pandemis leafroller model - Brunner 1991Location: 2016 MF22700 Blue Mt Cherry Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-3-16 | 932 | First moth catch |
| 5-14-16 | 1170 | 50% moth emergence |
| 5-20-16 | 1283 | First egg hatch |
| 5-24-16 | 1356 | 50% egg hatch |
| 5-28-16 | 1434 | 95% moth emergence |
| 6-29-16 | 2269 | First moth catch (2nd flight) |
| 7-17-16 | 2774 | 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) |
| 7-21-16 | 2888 | First egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-26-16 | 3045 | 50% egg hatch (2nd gen) |
![degree-day graph of Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner 1991](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2826290)
