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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF25442 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burkes Klepper OR Lat45.9600 Long:-118.4106 Elev:908
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 61.80 43.90 0.00 9.85 9.8 * START *
5 21 65.10 46.20 0.03 12.65 22.5
5 22 68.80 53.50 0.00 18.15 40.6
5 23 70.20 52.20 0.00 18.20 58.8 Vx
5 24 71.60 53.30 0.00 19.45 78.3
5 25 77.30 51.80 0.00 21.55 99.8
5 26 70.50 54.50 0.00 19.50 119.3
5 27 67.30 51.30 0.00 16.30 135.6
5 28 75.90 49.90 0.00 19.90 155.5 50% catch
5 29 78.90 55.70 0.00 24.30 179.8
5 30 75.30 49.80 0.00 19.55 199.4
5 31 84.00 48.00 0.00 23.00 222.4
6 1 85.00 51.70 0.00 25.35 247.7
6 2 76.80 64.60 0.00 27.70 275.4
6 3 87.00 57.20 0.00 28.88 304.3
6 4 94.90 52.70 0.00 28.71 333.0
6 5 95.40 56.40 0.00 30.55 363.6
6 6 99.10 69.80 0.00 37.06 400.7 Vx
6 7 95.00 68.60 0.00 36.07 436.7
6 8 87.40 68.90 0.00 34.78 471.5 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 9 78.20 60.30 0.00 26.25 497.8
6 10 68.70 54.50 0.04 18.60 516.4
6 11 70.90 50.60 0.00 17.75 534.1
6 12 78.80 47.70 0.00 20.25 554.4
6 13 74.10 57.00 0.00 22.55 576.9
6 14 69.30 51.80 0.00 17.55 594.5 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 15 67.10 48.30 0.00 14.70 609.2
6 16 68.90 47.80 0.02 15.35 624.5
6 17 77.60 47.20 0.02 19.40 643.9
6 18 67.70 55.80 0.09 18.75 662.7
6 19 77.60 46.60 0.00 19.10 681.8
6 20 81.30 48.10 0.00 21.70 703.5 Vx
6 21 80.40 58.50 0.00 26.45 729.9
6 22 87.70 49.40 0.00 25.24 755.2
6 23 80.20 63.10 0.00 28.65 783.8 95% egg hatch
6 24 74.50 55.70 0.00 22.10 805.9
6 25 80.70 51.20 0.00 22.95 828.9
6 26 90.50 50.30 0.00 26.52 855.4
6 27 93.40 56.20 0.00 30.06 885.4 Vx
6 28 94.50 67.30 0.00 35.42 920.9 Mostly small larvae present
6 29 94.30 64.50 0.00 34.12 955.0 Vx
6 30 90.30 65.70 0.00 33.93 988.9 Vx Vn
7 1 92.90 60.90 0.00 32.19 1021.1
7 2 89.80 64.00 0.00 33.00 1054.1 Vx
7 3 85.50 69.20 0.00 34.31 1088.4 Vx
7 4 82.30 54.90 0.00 25.60 1114.0
7 5 81.00 57.30 0.00 26.15 1140.2
7 6 78.50 61.50 0.00 27.00 1167.2
7 7 81.50 61.00 0.00 28.25 1195.4 Vx
7 8 77.70 61.50 0.11 26.60 1222.0 Vx Mostly large larvae present
7 9 78.20 59.10 0.06 25.65 1247.7
7 10 69.80 59.40 0.00 21.60 1269.3
7 11 77.30 59.80 0.00 25.55 1294.8
7 12 79.00 59.00 0.02 26.00 1320.8
7 13 83.30 59.40 0.00 28.35 1349.2 Vx
7 14 89.70 53.80 0.00 28.02 1377.2 Vx
7 15 81.30 60.10 0.00 27.70 1404.9 Vx
7 16 83.50 60.60 0.00 29.05 1433.9 Vx
7 17 87.90 56.30 0.00 28.72 1462.7 Vx
7 18 81.60 61.70 0.00 28.65 1491.3 5% catch next generation
7 19 80.30 60.20 0.00 27.25 1518.6
7 20 87.30 62.10 0.00 31.40 1550.0 Vx
7 21 94.80 55.80 0.00 30.16 1580.1 Vx
7 22 82.90 65.90 0.00 31.40 1611.5 Vx
7 23 84.30 56.80 0.00 27.55 1639.1
7 24 90.10 55.50 0.00 28.96 1668.0 Vx
7 25 96.60 60.20 0.00 32.52 1700.5 Vx
7 26 95.30 71.40 0.00 37.33 1737.9 Vx
7 27 92.20 68.00 0.05 35.38 1773.3
7 28 95.00 67.30 0.04 35.50 1808.8
7 29 101.60 69.50 0.00 37.16 1845.9 Vx
7 30 94.60 71.60 0.00 37.34 1883.3 Vx
7 31 84.80 59.90 0.00 29.35 1912.6 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
8 1 90.40 56.50 0.00 29.52 1942.1 Vx Vn
8 2 78.40 62.30 0.00 27.35 1969.5 Vx Vn
8 3 83.60 57.00 0.00 27.30 1996.8 Vx
8 4 92.70 53.50 0.00 28.62 2025.4 Vx Vn
8 5 90.50 55.60 0.01 29.11 2054.5 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 6 87.40 64.00 0.00 32.37 2086.9
8 7 82.80 60.00 0.00 28.40 2115.3 Vx
8 8 75.90 52.80 0.00 21.35 2136.6
8 9 72.50 57.30 0.00 21.90 2158.5
8 10 84.10 58.20 0.00 28.15 2186.7 Vx 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 11 90.10 57.50 0.00 29.93 2216.6 Vx Vn
8 12 95.50 57.00 0.00 30.85 2247.5 Vx
8 13 97.60 57.70 0.00 31.54 2279.0 Vx
8 14 95.50 70.30 0.00 36.88 2315.9 Vx Vn
8 15 95.70 63.20 0.00 33.75 2349.6 Vx Vn
8 16 91.90 64.40 0.05 33.64 2383.3
8 17 88.50 64.60 0.03 32.97 2416.2
8 18 96.50 61.80 0.00 33.24 2449.5 Vx
8 19 86.70 57.10 0.00 28.73 2478.2
8 20 91.70 58.60 0.05 30.84 2509.1
8 21 94.40 62.30 0.00 33.12 2542.2 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 22 79.60 55.20 0.00 24.40 2566.6
8 23 82.80 51.20 0.00 24.00 2590.6
8 24 86.70 57.20 0.00 28.78 2619.3 Vx
8 25 89.50 51.10 0.00 26.64 2646.0
8 26 88.70 51.50 0.03 26.60 2672.6
8 27 88.30 71.70 0.02 36.36 2708.9
8 28 85.70 64.80 0.03 32.20 2741.1
8 29 91.80 56.30 0.00 29.76 2770.9 Vx
8 30 81.30 62.50 0.00 28.90 2799.8
8 31 83.00 57.50 0.00 27.25 2827.1
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF25442 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 MF25442 Burkes Klepper OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-28-16 | 156 | 50% catch |
| 6-8-16 | 472 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 6-14-16 | 594 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 6-23-16 | 784 | 95% egg hatch |
| 6-28-16 | 921 | Mostly small larvae present |
| 7-8-16 | 1222 | Mostly large larvae present |
| 7-18-16 | 1491 | 5% catch next generation |
| 7-31-16 | 1913 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 8-5-16 | 2055 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
| 8-10-16 | 2187 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 8-21-16 | 2542 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner et al 1997](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2539474)
