Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather datawestern flower thrips [vegetables]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 45 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 104 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: under development
Region of known use: data from numerous sources
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 20 DDs after Jan 1: OW Gen adults present
2. 338 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 1, peak egg hatch
3. 675 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 1, peak adults
4. 1013 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 2, peak egg hatch
5. 1350 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 2, peak adults
6. 2025 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 3, peak adults
7. 2700 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 4, peak adults
8. 3375 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 5, peak adults
9. 4050 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 6, peak adults
10. 4725 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 7, peak adults
11. 5400 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 8, peak adults
12. 6075 DDs after Jan 1: Gen 9, peak adults
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2024 KNLC METAR Lemoore Naval Air Stn CA Lat:36.3033 Long:-119.9381 Elev:233
mn day max min precip DD45 CUMDD45 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 55.90 42.10 0.00 4.58 4.6 * START *
1 2 50.00 46.00 0.09 3.00 7.6
1 3 59.00 41.00 0.05 5.82 13.4
1 4 54.00 37.00 0.00 2.96 16.4
1 5 57.00 34.00 0.00 3.91 20.3 OW Gen adults present
1 6 50.00 32.00 0.04 1.15 21.4
1 7 54.00 30.90 0.00 2.49 23.9
1 8 54.00 28.00 0.00 2.34 26.2
1 9 55.00 27.00 0.00 2.64 28.9
1 10 62.10 35.10 0.05 6.25 35.1
1 11 55.00 28.90 0.05 2.74 37.9
1 12 54.00 25.00 0.00 2.20 40.1
1 13 51.10 32.00 0.01 1.52 41.6
1 14 62.10 39.00 0.00 6.88 48.5
1 15 55.00 44.10 0.00 4.66 53.1
1 16 51.10 46.00 0.05 3.55 56.7
1 17 59.00 42.10 0.02 6.07 62.8
1 18 60.10 37.90 0.00 5.77 68.5
1 19 63.00 45.00 0.00 9.00 77.5
1 20 63.00 53.10 0.16 13.05 90.6
1 21 64.00 52.00 0.06 13.00 103.6
1 22 61.00 50.00 0.11 10.50 114.1
1 23 64.00 46.90 0.03 10.45 124.5
1 24 57.90 48.00 0.21 7.95 132.5
1 25 64.00 43.00 0.00 8.76 141.2
1 26 64.00 37.90 0.00 7.57 148.8
1 27 64.90 42.80 0.00 9.15 158.0
1 28 70.00 39.90 0.00 10.86 168.8
1 29 75.00 42.10 0.00 13.92 182.7
1 30 73.00 42.10 0.00 12.93 195.7
1 31 72.00 50.00 0.07 16.00 211.7
2 1 63.00 46.00 0.59 9.50 221.2
2 2 61.00 43.00 0.02 7.29 228.4
2 3 57.00 41.00 0.29 4.87 233.3
2 4 61.00 48.00 0.46 9.50 242.8
2 5 64.00 46.00 0.24 10.00 252.8
2 6 59.00 46.00 0.05 7.50 260.3
2 7 57.00 39.00 0.43 4.53 264.8
2 8 54.00 39.00 0.00 3.19 268.0
2 9 57.00 33.10 0.00 3.83 271.9
2 10 55.90 34.00 0.00 3.46 275.3
2 11 61.00 32.00 0.00 5.39 280.7
2 12 63.00 34.00 0.00 6.50 287.2
2 13 64.00 35.10 0.00 7.10 294.3
2 14 64.00 37.90 0.09 7.57 301.9
2 15 61.00 44.10 0.09 7.64 309.5
2 16 63.00 42.10 0.00 8.01 317.5
2 17 62.10 48.00 0.22 10.05 327.6
2 18 70.00 44.10 0.37 12.12 339.7 Gen 1, peak egg hatch
2 19 70.00 50.00 0.06 15.00 354.7
2 20 66.00 43.00 0.10 9.75 364.5
2 21 64.00 43.00 0.00 8.76 373.2
2 22 66.90 42.10 0.00 9.93 383.2
2 23 66.90 41.00 0.00 9.63 392.8
2 24 72.00 41.00 0.00 12.12 404.9
2 25 72.00 39.90 0.00 11.83 416.7
2 26 63.00 44.10 0.00 8.63 425.4
2 27 64.00 42.10 0.00 8.50 433.9
2 28 70.00 37.00 0.00 10.22 444.1
2 29 66.00 39.90 0.00 8.93 453.0
3 1 66.00 46.90 0.13 11.45 464.5
3 2 55.90 46.90 0.15 6.40 470.9
3 3 61.00 39.00 0.03 6.37 477.2
3 4 62.10 36.00 0.00 6.38 483.6
3 5 66.00 37.00 0.00 8.34 491.9
3 6 64.90 44.10 0.00 9.58 501.5
3 7 66.00 44.10 0.00 10.13 511.6
3 8 68.00 36.00 0.00 9.09 520.7
3 9 73.00 39.00 0.00 12.09 532.8
3 10 71.10 43.00 0.00 12.28 545.1
3 11 70.00 41.00 0.00 11.14 556.2
3 12 70.00 51.10 0.02 15.55 571.8
3 13 66.90 42.10 0.00 9.93 581.7
3 14 70.00 35.10 0.00 9.86 591.6
3 15 73.00 36.00 0.00 11.43 603.0
3 16 75.90 37.00 0.00 13.02 616.0
3 17 77.00 39.00 0.00 14.03 630.1
3 18 80.10 41.00 0.00 16.10 646.2
3 19 82.90 45.00 0.00 18.95 665.1
3 20 82.00 45.00 0.00 18.50 683.6 Gen 1, peak adults
3 21 75.90 46.90 0.00 16.40 700.0
3 22 80.10 46.00 0.05 18.05 718.1
3 23 63.10 52.00 0.11 12.55 730.6 Px
3 24 61.00 42.40 0.00 7.12 737.7 Pn
3 25 68.00 37.90 0.00 9.45 747.2
3 26 71.10 39.00 0.00 11.17 758.3
3 27 75.90 39.00 0.00 13.49 771.8
3 28 68.00 45.00 0.13 11.50 783.3
3 29 66.00 46.00 0.34 11.00 794.3
3 30 63.00 46.90 0.05 9.95 804.3
3 31 68.00 42.10 0.64 10.47 814.8
4 1 71.10 42.10 0.00 11.99 826.8
4 2 78.10 43.00 0.00 15.75 842.5
4 3 82.00 46.00 0.00 19.00 861.5
4 4 62.10 45.00 0.03 8.55 870.1
4 5 55.90 39.00 0.02 4.03 874.1
4 6 64.00 30.90 0.00 6.55 880.6
4 7 66.90 39.90 0.00 9.36 890.0
4 8 71.10 35.10 0.00 10.37 900.4
4 9 79.00 41.00 0.00 15.56 915.9
4 10 84.90 42.10 0.00 18.82 934.7
4 11 88.00 48.00 0.00 23.00 957.7
4 12 87.10 53.10 0.00 25.10 982.8
4 13 70.00 43.00 0.47 11.73 994.6
4 14 63.00 43.00 0.48 8.27 1002.8
4 15 69.10 39.90 0.00 10.42 1013.3 Gen 2, peak egg hatch
4 16 75.90 46.90 0.00 16.40 1029.7
4 17 82.00 48.90 0.00 20.45 1050.1
4 18 84.90 51.10 0.00 23.00 1073.1
4 19 86.00 54.00 0.00 25.00 1098.1
4 20 87.10 50.00 0.00 23.55 1121.7
4 21 88.00 46.90 0.00 22.45 1144.1
4 22 91.00 53.10 0.00 27.05 1171.2
4 23 78.10 51.10 0.00 19.60 1190.8
4 24 71.10 48.00 0.00 14.55 1205.3
4 25 77.00 55.90 0.00 21.45 1226.8
4 26 77.00 51.10 0.00 19.05 1245.8
4 27 75.90 43.00 0.00 14.66 1260.5
4 28 81.00 46.00 0.00 18.50 1279.0
4 29 81.00 48.00 0.00 19.50 1298.5
4 30 82.00 43.00 0.00 17.69 1316.2
5 1 81.00 45.00 0.00 18.00 1334.2
5 2 84.90 42.10 0.00 18.82 1353.0 Gen 2, peak adults
5 3 86.00 48.90 0.00 22.45 1375.4
5 4 71.10 43.00 0.27 12.28 1387.7
5 5 66.90 37.00 0.00 8.76 1396.5
5 6 73.00 39.90 0.00 12.31 1408.8
5 7 78.10 46.00 0.00 17.05 1425.8
5 8 80.10 46.00 0.00 18.05 1443.9
5 9 88.00 45.00 0.00 21.50 1465.4
5 10 91.90 48.90 0.00 25.40 1490.8
5 11 93.90 53.10 0.00 28.50 1519.3
5 12 96.10 54.00 0.00 30.05 1549.3
5 13 93.00 57.00 0.00 30.00 1579.3
5 14 91.90 53.10 0.00 27.50 1606.8
5 15 93.00 57.00 0.00 30.00 1636.8
5 16 93.90 57.00 0.00 30.45 1667.3
QA 99% ok
Forecast using: NWS NDFD 7-day Forecast data
5 17 91.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 1696.3 Sunny
5 18 91.00 57.00 0.00 29.00 1725.3 Mostly_Sunny
5 19 89.00 56.00 0.00 27.50 1752.8 Sunny
5 20 88.00 53.00 0.00 25.50 1778.3 Sunny
5 21 84.00 54.00 0.00 24.00 1802.3 Sunny
5 22 89.00 56.00 0.00 27.50 1829.8 Sunny
5 23 90.00 55.00 0.00 27.50 1857.3 Mostly_Sunny
Forecast using: 1910 KNLC PRISM_rev1_4km 2014-2023 AVERAGES Lat36.3033 Long-119.9381 DD50
5 24 85.00 54.50 0.01 24.75 1882.0 *nmme_seas_fcst*
5 25 85.40 54.70 0.00 25.05 1907.1 *nmme_seas_fcst*
5 26 85.80 55.00 0.00 25.40 1932.5 *nmme_seas_fcst*
5 27 86.20 55.20 0.00 25.70 1958.2 *nmme_seas_fcst*
5 28 86.60 55.50 0.00 26.05 1984.2 *nmme_seas_fcst*
5 29 86.90 55.80 0.00 26.35 2010.6 *nmme_seas_fcst*
5 30 87.20 56.00 0.00 26.60 2037.2 *nmme_seas_fcst* Gen 3, peak adults
5 31 87.50 56.30 0.00 26.90 2064.1 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 1 88.50 57.20 0.01 27.85 2091.9 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 2 88.80 57.40 0.01 28.10 2120.0 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 3 89.10 57.60 0.00 28.35 2148.4 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 4 89.40 57.70 0.00 28.55 2176.9 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 5 89.60 57.90 0.00 28.75 2205.7 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 6 89.90 58.00 0.00 28.95 2234.6 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 7 90.10 58.10 0.00 29.10 2263.7 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 8 90.20 58.20 0.00 29.20 2292.9 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 9 90.40 58.30 0.00 29.35 2322.3 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 10 90.60 58.40 0.00 29.50 2351.8 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 11 90.80 58.40 0.00 29.60 2381.4 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 12 91.00 58.50 0.00 29.75 2411.1 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 13 91.30 58.60 0.00 29.95 2441.1 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 14 91.70 58.70 0.00 30.20 2471.3 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 15 92.00 58.90 0.00 30.45 2501.7 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 16 92.40 59.10 0.00 30.75 2532.5 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 17 92.80 59.30 0.00 31.05 2563.5 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 18 93.20 59.50 0.00 31.35 2594.9 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 19 93.50 59.80 0.00 31.65 2626.5 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 20 93.90 60.00 0.00 31.95 2658.5 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 21 94.20 60.30 0.00 32.25 2690.7 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 22 94.50 60.60 0.00 32.55 2723.3 *nmme_seas_fcst* Gen 4, peak adults
6 23 94.80 60.90 0.00 32.85 2756.1 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 24 95.10 61.10 0.00 33.10 2789.2 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 25 95.40 61.40 0.00 33.40 2822.6 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 26 95.70 61.60 0.00 33.65 2856.3 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 27 95.90 61.90 0.00 33.90 2890.2 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 28 96.20 62.10 0.00 34.15 2924.3 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 29 96.40 62.40 0.00 34.40 2958.7 *nmme_seas_fcst*
6 30 96.60 62.60 0.00 34.60 2993.3 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 1 97.30 63.40 0.00 35.35 3028.7 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 2 97.50 63.60 0.00 35.55 3064.2 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 3 97.70 63.90 0.00 35.80 3100.0 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 4 97.90 64.00 0.00 35.95 3136.0 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 5 98.10 64.20 0.00 36.15 3172.1 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 6 98.20 64.40 0.00 36.30 3208.4 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 7 98.40 64.60 0.00 36.50 3244.9 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 8 98.50 64.70 0.00 36.60 3281.5 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 9 98.70 64.90 0.00 36.80 3318.3 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 10 98.70 65.00 0.00 36.85 3355.2 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 11 98.80 65.10 0.00 36.95 3392.1 *nmme_seas_fcst* Gen 5, peak adults
7 12 98.80 65.30 0.00 37.05 3429.2 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 13 98.80 65.40 0.00 37.10 3466.3 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 14 98.80 65.50 0.00 37.15 3503.4 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 15 98.80 65.60 0.00 37.20 3540.6 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 16 98.80 65.60 0.00 37.20 3577.8 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 17 98.80 65.70 0.00 37.25 3615.1 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 18 98.90 65.80 0.00 37.35 3652.4 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 19 99.00 65.90 0.00 37.45 3689.9 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 20 99.10 65.90 0.00 37.50 3727.4 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 21 99.20 66.00 0.00 37.60 3765.0 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 22 99.20 66.00 0.00 37.60 3802.6 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 23 99.30 66.00 0.00 37.65 3840.2 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 24 99.40 66.00 0.00 37.70 3877.9 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 25 99.40 66.10 0.00 37.75 3915.7 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 26 99.50 66.10 0.00 37.80 3953.5 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 27 99.50 66.00 0.00 37.75 3991.2 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 28 99.50 66.00 0.00 37.75 4029.0 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 29 99.50 65.90 0.00 37.70 4066.7 *nmme_seas_fcst* Gen 6, peak adults
7 30 99.40 65.80 0.00 37.60 4104.3 *nmme_seas_fcst*
7 31 99.20 65.60 0.00 37.40 4141.7 *nmme_seas_fcst*
western flower thrips model - OSU OIPMC model analysis Location: 2024 KNLC Lemoore Naval Air QA 99% ok - show details 1910 KNLC PRISM_rev1_4km 2014-2023 AVERAGES This year is about versus QA 7 days ahead 2023 ok 4 days behind 2022 ok 8 days ahead 30-yr normal ok
Date DDs Event 1-5-24 20 OW Gen adults present 2-18-24 340 Gen 1, peak egg hatch 3-20-24 684 Gen 1, peak adults 4-15-24 1013 Gen 2, peak egg hatch 5-2-24 1353 Gen 2, peak adults 5-30-24 2037 Gen 3, peak adults 6-22-24 2723 Gen 4, peak adults 7-11-24 3392 Gen 5, peak adults 7-29-24 4067 Gen 6, peak adults
![degree-day graph of western flower thrips [vegetables] OSU OIPMC model analysis](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?880575)