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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 1988
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1
Ending date: 9 15
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 850 DDs after biofix: Peak pheromone trap catch
2. 950 DDs after biofix: Peak female adult emergence
3. 1000 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying
4. 1270 DDs after biofix: Peak egg hatch
5. 2070 DDs after biofix: Peak in density large larvae
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2023 CYXX CANADA Abbotsford: B. C. BC Lat:49.0331 Long:-122.3667 Elev:177
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
1 1 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 0.9 * START *
1 2 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 1.2
1 3 39.20 32.00 0.00 0.00 1.2
1 4 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 2.1
1 5 53.60 42.80 0.00 7.20 9.3
1 6 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 15.6
1 7 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 18.3
1 8 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 19.7
1 9 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 23.2
1 10 51.80 41.00 0.00 5.40 28.6
1 11 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 31.4
1 12 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 35.0
1 13 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 42.2
1 14 51.80 42.80 0.00 6.30 48.5
1 15 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 53.0
1 16 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 55.2
1 17 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 57.3
1 18 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 58.9
1 19 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 59.8
1 20 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 61.3
1 21 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 61.3
1 22 39.20 35.60 0.00 0.00 61.3
1 23 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 61.7
1 24 41.00 39.20 0.00 0.00 61.7
1 25 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 63.5
1 26 42.80 41.00 0.00 0.90 64.4
1 27 44.60 41.00 0.00 1.80 66.2
1 28 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 67.7
1 29 37.40 24.80 0.00 0.00 67.7
1 30 32.00 21.20 0.00 0.00 67.7
1 31 32.00 28.40 0.00 0.00 67.7
2 1 37.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 67.7
2 2 41.00 32.00 0.00 0.00 67.7
2 3 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 71.0
2 4 46.40 42.80 0.00 3.60 74.6
2 5 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 76.8
2 6 48.20 41.00 0.00 3.60 80.4
2 7 50.00 41.00 0.00 4.50 84.9
2 8 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 86.5
2 9 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 87.0
2 10 51.80 35.60 0.00 4.07 91.1
2 11 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 92.6
2 12 42.80 39.20 0.00 0.57 93.1
2 13 48.20 37.40 0.00 2.72 95.9
2 14 46.40 32.00 0.00 1.46 97.3
2 15 44.60 28.40 0.00 0.74 98.1
2 16 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 99.1
2 17 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 99.4
2 18 44.60 39.20 0.00 1.36 100.8
2 19 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 103.0
2 20 46.40 44.60 0.00 4.50 107.5
2 21 44.60 33.80 0.00 0.92 108.4
2 22 32.00 24.80 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 23 30.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 24 32.00 17.60 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 25 35.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 26 41.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 27 37.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 108.4
2 28 35.60 24.80 0.00 0.00 108.4
3 1 39.20 21.20 0.00 0.00 108.4
3 2 46.40 35.60 0.00 1.72 110.1
3 3 42.80 35.60 0.00 0.39 110.5
3 4 42.80 33.80 0.00 0.35 110.8
3 5 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 113.9
3 6 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 116.4
3 7 50.00 32.00 0.00 2.86 119.2
3 8 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 122.8
3 9 55.40 33.80 0.00 5.43 128.3
3 10 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 130.5
3 11 46.40 37.40 0.00 1.91 132.4
3 12 48.20 35.60 0.00 2.48 134.9
3 13 46.40 39.20 0.00 2.19 137.0
3 14 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 140.3
3 15 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 143.6
3 16 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 148.7
3 17 59.00 35.60 0.00 7.43 156.2
3 18 64.40 37.40 0.00 10.47 166.6
3 19 60.80 41.00 0.00 9.90 176.5
3 20 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 183.7
3 21 59.00 42.80 0.00 9.90 193.6
3 22 60.80 35.60 0.00 8.29 201.9
3 23 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 206.7
3 24 41.00 35.60 0.00 0.00 206.7
3 25 44.60 35.60 0.00 1.01 207.7
3 26 46.40 33.80 0.00 1.58 209.3
3 27 57.20 32.00 0.00 5.98 215.3
3 28 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 227.0
3 29 62.60 44.60 0.00 12.60 239.6
3 30 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 244.5
3 31 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 249.0
4 1 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 252.5
4 2 42.80 32.00 0.00 0.32 252.8
4 3 48.20 32.00 0.00 2.14 255.0
4 4 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 258.5
4 5 51.80 32.00 0.00 3.61 262.1
4 6 48.20 42.80 0.00 4.50 266.6
4 7 53.60 46.40 0.00 9.00 275.6
4 8 51.80 44.60 0.00 7.20 282.8
4 9 55.40 44.60 0.00 9.00 291.8
4 10 46.40 41.00 0.00 2.70 294.5
4 11 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 298.9
4 12 53.60 33.80 0.00 4.62 303.5
4 13 51.80 37.40 0.00 4.38 307.9
4 14 55.40 32.00 0.00 5.17 313.1
4 15 50.00 39.20 0.00 3.92 317.0
4 16 48.20 39.20 0.00 3.05 320.1
4 17 50.00 33.80 0.00 3.04 323.1
4 18 50.00 37.40 0.00 3.54 326.7
4 19 53.60 35.60 0.00 4.90 331.5
4 20 50.00 35.60 0.00 3.26 334.8
4 21 51.80 39.20 0.00 4.79 339.6
4 22 57.20 42.80 0.00 9.00 348.6
4 23 50.00 46.40 0.00 7.20 355.8
4 24 57.20 44.60 0.00 9.90 365.7
4 25 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 376.5
4 26 59.00 44.60 0.00 10.80 387.3
4 27 68.00 42.80 0.00 14.40 401.7
4 28 77.00 46.40 0.00 20.70 422.4
4 29 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 444.9
4 30 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 458.4
5 1 57.20 48.20 0.00 11.70 470.1
5 2 75.20 48.20 0.00 20.70 490.8
5 3 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 514.2
5 4 66.20 51.80 0.00 18.00 532.2
5 5 53.60 48.20 0.00 9.90 542.1
5 6 55.40 48.20 0.00 10.80 552.9
5 7 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 566.4
5 8 62.60 42.80 0.00 11.70 578.1
5 9 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 591.6
5 10 68.00 44.60 0.00 15.30 606.9
5 11 73.40 44.60 0.00 18.00 624.9
5 12 80.60 50.00 0.00 24.30 649.2
5 13 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 680.7
5 14 91.40 62.60 0.00 36.00 716.7
5 15 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 750.9
5 16 73.40 59.00 0.00 25.20 776.1
5 17 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 802.2
5 18 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 829.2
5 19 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 854.4 Peak pheromone trap catch
5 20 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 877.8
5 21 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 896.7
5 22 55.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 908.4
5 23 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 921.9
5 24 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 939.9
5 25 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 963.3 Peak female adult emergence
5 26 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 989.4
5 27 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1009.2 Peak egg laying
5 28 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 1029.0
5 29 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1047.0
5 30 62.60 46.40 0.00 13.50 1060.5
5 31 64.40 44.60 0.00 13.50 1074.0
6 1 68.00 46.40 0.00 16.20 1090.2
6 2 71.60 46.40 0.00 18.00 1108.2
6 3 71.60 48.20 0.00 18.90 1127.1
6 4 69.80 46.40 0.00 17.10 1144.2
6 5 73.40 46.40 0.00 18.90 1163.1
6 6 86.00 44.60 0.00 24.30 1187.4
6 7 86.00 53.60 0.00 28.80 1216.2
6 8 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1240.5
6 9 62.60 51.80 0.00 16.20 1256.7
6 10 59.00 51.80 0.00 14.40 1271.1 Peak egg hatch
6 11 71.60 55.40 0.00 22.50 1293.6
6 12 80.60 55.40 0.00 27.00 1320.6
6 13 66.20 53.60 0.00 18.90 1339.5
6 14 62.60 50.00 0.00 15.30 1354.8
6 15 71.60 53.60 0.00 21.60 1376.4
6 16 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 1398.0
6 17 64.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 1414.2
6 18 60.80 48.20 0.00 13.50 1427.7
6 19 53.60 48.20 0.00 9.90 1437.6
6 20 59.00 50.00 0.00 13.50 1451.1
6 21 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1470.0
6 22 77.00 50.00 0.00 22.50 1492.5
6 23 78.80 53.60 0.00 25.20 1517.7
6 24 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 1536.6
6 25 75.20 51.80 0.00 22.50 1559.1
6 26 73.40 53.60 0.00 22.50 1581.6
6 27 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1605.0
6 28 77.00 57.20 0.00 26.10 1631.1
6 29 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 1658.1
6 30 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 1684.2
7 1 75.20 53.60 0.00 23.40 1707.6
7 2 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 1731.0
7 3 84.20 53.60 0.00 27.90 1758.9
7 4 87.80 55.40 0.00 30.60 1789.5
7 5 87.80 60.80 0.00 33.30 1822.8
7 6 84.20 57.20 0.00 29.70 1852.5
7 7 73.40 57.20 0.00 24.30 1876.8
7 8 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 1900.2
7 9 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 1925.4
7 10 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 1946.1
7 11 75.20 59.00 0.00 26.10 1972.2
7 12 75.20 55.40 0.00 24.30 1996.5
7 13 78.80 55.40 0.00 26.10 2022.6
7 14 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 2051.4
7 15 87.80 57.20 0.00 31.50 2082.9 Peak in density large larvae
7 16 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2111.7
7 17 75.20 60.80 0.00 27.00 2138.7
7 18 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 2164.8
7 19 89.60 55.40 0.00 31.50 2196.3
7 20 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 2228.7
7 21 78.80 59.00 0.00 27.90 2256.6
7 22 80.60 57.20 0.00 27.90 2284.5
7 23 82.40 57.20 0.00 28.80 2313.3
7 24 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 2334.9
7 25 68.00 55.40 0.00 20.70 2355.6
7 26 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 2376.3
7 27 77.00 55.40 0.00 25.20 2401.5
7 28 80.20 55.80 0.00 27.00 2428.5 Hx Hn
7 29 81.40 55.10 0.00 27.25 2455.8 Hx Hn
7 30 84.50 56.00 0.00 29.25 2485.0 Hx Hn
7 31 84.40 57.30 0.00 29.85 2514.9 Hx Hn
8 1 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2541.0
8 2 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 2567.1
8 3 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 2594.1
8 4 82.40 53.60 0.00 27.00 2621.1
8 5 77.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 2648.1
8 6 77.00 60.80 0.00 27.90 2676.0
8 7 77.00 62.60 0.00 28.80 2704.8
8 8 75.20 60.80 0.00 27.00 2731.8
8 9 73.40 60.80 0.00 26.10 2757.9
8 10 73.40 60.80 0.00 26.10 2784.0
8 11 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 2808.3
8 12 80.60 59.00 0.00 28.80 2837.1
8 13 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 2871.3
8 14 89.60 62.60 0.00 35.10 2906.4
8 15 89.60 60.80 0.00 34.20 2940.6
8 16 89.60 64.40 0.00 36.00 2976.6
8 17 86.00 60.80 0.00 32.40 3009.0
8 18 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 3032.4
8 19 82.40 51.80 0.00 26.10 3058.5
8 20 78.80 51.80 0.00 24.30 3082.8
8 21 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 3103.5
8 22 74.90 53.60 0.00 23.25 3126.7 Hx
8 23 69.80 55.40 0.00 21.60 3148.3
8 24 80.60 53.60 0.00 26.10 3174.4
8 25 78.80 60.80 0.00 28.80 3203.2
8 26 91.40 59.00 0.00 34.20 3237.4
8 27 89.60 59.00 0.00 33.30 3270.7
8 28 69.80 59.00 0.00 23.40 3294.1
8 29 62.60 59.00 0.00 19.80 3313.9
8 30 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 3336.4
8 31 71.60 57.20 0.00 23.40 3359.8
9 1 84.20 55.40 0.00 28.80 3388.6
9 2 84.20 52.90 0.00 27.55 3416.2 Hn
9 3 69.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 3438.7
9 4 64.40 55.40 0.00 18.90 3457.6
9 5 68.00 57.20 0.00 21.60 3479.2
9 6 69.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 3498.1
9 7 69.80 51.80 0.00 19.80 3517.9
9 8 73.40 50.00 0.00 20.70 3538.6
9 9 82.40 48.20 0.00 24.30 3562.9
9 10 77.00 51.80 0.00 23.40 3586.3
9 11 75.80 54.00 0.00 23.90 3610.2 Hx Hn
9 12 64.40 53.20 0.00 17.80 3628.0 Hn
9 13 73.40 55.40 0.00 23.40 3651.4
9 14 78.80 50.00 0.00 23.40 3674.8
9 15 82.40 50.00 0.00 25.20 3700.0
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 CYXX PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
orange tortrix (mild winter) model - Knight 1988Location: 2023 CYXX Abbotsford: B. C. Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-19-23 | 854 | Peak pheromone trap catch |
| 5-25-23 | 963 | Peak female adult emergence |
| 5-27-23 | 1009 | Peak egg laying |
| 6-10-23 | 1271 | Peak egg hatch |
| 7-15-23 | 2083 | Peak in density large larvae |
![degree-day graph of orange tortrix (mild winter) [small fruit] Knight 1988](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?3218076)
