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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24644 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Fuji OR Lat45.9431 Long:-118.4389 Elev:941
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 63.10 44.20 0.00 10.65 10.7 * START *
5 21 65.90 48.70 0.05 14.30 25.0
5 22 68.80 52.70 0.00 17.75 42.7
5 23 69.90 50.30 0.00 17.10 59.8 Vx
5 24 74.40 53.30 0.00 20.85 80.7
5 25 80.10 54.40 0.00 24.25 104.9
5 26 72.20 53.30 0.00 19.75 124.7
5 27 69.10 50.10 0.00 16.60 141.2 50% catch
5 28 78.40 49.20 0.00 20.80 162.1
5 29 78.70 56.00 0.00 24.35 186.4
5 30 78.50 51.20 0.00 21.85 208.2
5 31 86.60 50.80 0.00 25.56 233.8
6 1 89.00 57.80 0.00 29.78 263.6
6 2 78.80 64.50 0.00 28.65 292.2
6 3 91.50 59.10 0.00 31.04 323.3
6 4 98.50 57.90 0.00 31.77 355.1
6 5 99.70 64.20 0.00 34.74 389.8
6 6 99.00 69.00 0.00 36.71 426.5 Vx
6 7 97.10 70.80 0.00 37.28 463.8 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 8 88.80 75.60 0.00 38.31 502.1
6 9 78.60 59.40 0.00 26.00 528.1
6 10 71.80 52.80 0.04 19.30 547.4
6 11 75.70 50.30 0.00 20.00 567.4
6 12 78.70 49.20 0.00 20.95 588.3 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 13 76.00 58.30 0.00 24.15 612.5
6 14 71.50 50.30 0.00 17.90 630.4
6 15 68.90 46.10 0.00 14.50 644.9
6 16 72.00 49.20 0.01 17.60 662.5
6 17 79.10 49.80 0.00 21.45 683.9
6 18 69.10 54.60 0.09 18.85 702.8
6 19 78.80 46.90 0.00 19.85 722.6
6 20 81.50 52.50 0.00 24.00 746.6 Vx
6 21 81.30 58.40 0.00 26.85 773.5
6 22 87.80 54.20 0.00 27.65 801.1 95% egg hatch
6 23 83.30 61.10 0.00 29.20 830.3
6 24 74.50 54.60 0.00 21.55 851.9
6 25 81.20 52.80 0.00 24.00 875.9
6 26 91.60 54.90 0.00 29.04 904.9 Mostly small larvae present
6 27 92.80 60.40 0.00 31.93 936.9 Vx Vn
6 28 93.50 68.70 0.00 35.91 972.8
6 29 94.00 67.90 0.00 35.62 1008.4 Vx
6 30 90.00 65.00 0.00 33.53 1041.9 Vx Vn
7 1 90.70 64.60 0.00 33.49 1075.4
7 2 89.50 62.80 0.00 32.35 1107.8 Vx Vn
7 3 85.30 68.30 0.00 33.78 1141.6 Vx
7 4 83.10 58.10 0.00 27.60 1169.2
7 5 81.50 57.20 0.00 26.35 1195.5
7 6 80.10 59.70 0.00 26.90 1222.4 Mostly large larvae present
7 7 81.40 62.20 0.00 28.80 1251.2 Vx
7 8 77.50 59.90 0.13 25.70 1276.9 Vx
7 9 77.50 57.30 0.07 24.40 1301.3
7 10 69.20 57.90 0.00 20.55 1321.9
7 11 81.50 58.90 0.00 27.20 1349.1
7 12 78.00 57.70 0.02 24.85 1373.9
7 13 83.30 57.70 0.00 27.50 1401.4
7 14 89.50 57.20 0.00 29.63 1431.0 Vx
7 15 81.00 60.20 0.00 27.60 1458.6 Vx
7 16 83.30 59.90 0.00 28.60 1487.2 Vx 5% catch next generation
7 17 87.40 60.50 0.00 30.64 1517.9 Vx
7 18 80.70 62.50 0.00 28.60 1546.5 Vx
7 19 79.40 61.70 0.00 27.55 1574.0 Vx
7 20 87.10 64.30 0.00 32.43 1606.4 Vx
7 21 94.50 60.00 0.00 32.07 1638.5 Vx
7 22 82.30 65.10 0.00 30.70 1669.2 Vx
7 23 86.50 58.20 0.00 29.20 1698.4
7 24 89.80 59.70 0.00 30.92 1729.3 Vx
7 25 96.30 65.50 0.00 34.87 1764.2 Vx
7 26 95.20 73.80 0.00 38.34 1802.6 Vx
7 27 96.30 68.80 0.00 36.33 1838.9
7 28 100.60 71.70 0.00 37.96 1876.8
7 29 101.40 70.90 0.00 37.71 1914.6 Vx 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
7 30 95.10 72.50 0.00 37.78 1952.3
7 31 86.50 62.30 0.00 31.24 1983.6
8 1 90.00 56.20 0.00 29.27 2012.8 Vx Vn
8 2 78.10 61.50 0.00 26.80 2039.6 Vx Vn
8 3 83.40 57.20 0.00 27.30 2066.9 Vx 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 4 92.30 54.80 0.00 29.15 2096.1 Vx Vn
8 5 93.90 63.60 0.00 33.64 2129.7 Vx
8 6 89.20 65.50 0.00 33.59 2163.3
8 7 82.70 63.50 0.00 30.10 2193.4 Vx 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 8 77.50 54.50 0.00 23.00 2216.4
8 9 74.00 57.50 0.00 22.75 2239.2
8 10 83.80 58.30 0.00 28.05 2267.2 Vx
8 11 89.80 60.00 0.00 31.07 2298.3 Vx
8 12 96.00 63.40 0.00 33.88 2332.2
8 13 98.00 65.80 0.00 35.23 2367.4
8 14 95.40 70.60 0.00 37.00 2404.4 Vx
8 15 95.40 62.60 0.00 33.43 2437.8 Vx Vn
8 16 96.80 67.80 0.00 35.95 2473.8
8 17 93.40 67.00 0.00 35.12 2508.9
8 18 97.30 69.00 0.00 36.53 2545.4 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 19 92.00 64.90 0.00 33.90 2579.3
8 20 95.70 65.30 0.00 34.70 2614.0
8 21 95.80 72.20 0.00 37.73 2651.8
8 22 83.50 58.10 0.00 27.80 2679.6
8 23 85.70 56.80 0.00 28.20 2707.8
8 24 86.30 61.90 0.00 30.97 2738.7 Vx
8 25 89.50 59.20 0.00 30.60 2769.3
8 26 94.50 61.00 0.00 32.54 2801.9
8 27 91.80 72.30 0.00 37.28 2839.2
8 28 88.80 66.90 0.00 34.17 2873.3 Vx
8 29 91.30 62.10 0.00 32.43 2905.8 Vx
8 30 81.70 67.20 0.00 31.45 2937.2
8 31 85.90 60.90 0.00 30.33 2967.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24644 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 MF24644 Brown Fuji OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-27-16 | 141 | 50% catch |
6-7-16 | 464 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
6-12-16 | 588 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
6-22-16 | 801 | 95% egg hatch |
6-26-16 | 905 | Mostly small larvae present |
7-6-16 | 1222 | Mostly large larvae present |
7-16-16 | 1487 | 5% catch next generation |
7-29-16 | 1915 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
8-3-16 | 2067 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
8-7-16 | 2193 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
8-18-16 | 2545 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |