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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 2007
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: actively undergoing evaluation
Region of known use: used in WA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
2. 340 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
3. 460 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
4. 535 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5. 655 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6. 755 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
7. 920 DDs after biofix: 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
8. 980 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
9. 1160 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
10. 1480 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
11. 1605 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
12. 1765 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
13. 1940 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
14. 2120 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
15. 2200 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
16. 2300 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24513 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burkes Wondra OR Lat45.9542 Long:-118.4481 Elev:839
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 73.20 50.80 0.00 12.00 12.0 * START *
4 11 75.70 47.70 0.00 11.98 24.0
4 12 66.40 51.80 0.00 9.10 33.1
4 13 64.00 48.30 0.00 6.39 39.5
4 14 62.60 44.80 0.00 4.93 44.4
4 15 64.60 45.70 0.00 6.04 50.4
4 16 70.10 39.50 0.00 7.51 58.0
4 17 75.20 39.30 0.00 9.81 67.8
4 18 79.00 39.90 0.00 11.69 79.5
4 19 81.80 45.00 0.00 14.19 93.6
4 20 84.80 44.20 0.00 15.44 109.1
4 21 79.00 55.60 0.00 17.30 126.4
4 22 76.80 55.60 0.00 16.20 142.6
4 23 70.50 53.30 0.00 11.90 154.5
4 24 66.40 51.90 0.00 9.15 163.6
4 25 64.90 43.20 0.00 5.72 169.4
4 26 66.00 45.80 0.00 6.73 176.1
4 27 60.80 50.10 0.00 5.45 181.5
4 28 70.50 51.50 0.00 11.00 192.5
4 29 59.00 52.00 0.00 5.50 198.0
4 30 68.50 48.80 0.00 8.78 206.8
5 1 78.00 41.00 0.00 11.43 218.3
5 2 85.50 46.30 0.00 16.39 234.6 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
5 3 90.90 62.10 0.00 26.11 260.7
5 4 79.70 59.00 0.00 19.35 280.1
5 5 69.20 44.90 0.00 8.06 288.2 Hx Hn
5 6 77.00 53.90 0.00 15.45 303.6
5 7 82.90 53.50 0.00 18.20 321.8
5 8 77.70 54.80 0.00 16.25 338.1
5 9 65.90 48.00 0.00 7.24 345.3 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
5 10 72.90 41.60 0.00 9.15 354.4 Vx
5 11 81.10 46.00 0.00 14.13 368.6 Vx Vn
5 12 85.70 62.30 0.00 24.00 392.6
5 13 82.70 46.20 0.00 14.98 407.6
5 14 68.70 54.80 0.00 11.75 419.3
5 15 59.30 53.50 0.00 6.40 425.7
5 16 70.90 53.20 0.00 12.05 437.8
5 17 78.30 49.90 0.00 14.10 451.9
5 18 83.60 60.80 0.00 22.20 474.1 Vx 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
5 19 67.40 49.50 0.00 8.49 482.5
5 20 62.30 44.80 0.00 4.79 487.3
5 21 64.50 47.60 0.00 6.44 493.8
5 22 69.70 53.70 0.00 11.70 505.5
5 23 70.70 51.40 0.00 11.05 516.5 Vx
5 24 73.80 53.00 0.00 13.40 529.9
5 25 78.10 53.00 0.00 15.55 545.5 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5 26 72.50 55.50 0.00 14.00 559.5
5 27 68.30 51.40 0.00 9.85 569.3
5 28 75.60 50.10 0.00 12.85 582.2
5 29 79.70 55.80 0.00 17.75 599.9
5 30 76.30 50.00 0.00 13.15 613.1
5 31 85.40 45.60 0.00 16.13 629.2
6 1 86.10 52.70 0.00 19.40 648.6
6 2 78.90 65.60 0.00 22.25 670.9 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6 3 87.00 59.90 0.00 23.45 694.3
6 4 94.30 53.20 0.00 22.69 717.0
6 5 95.80 55.60 0.00 24.21 741.2
6 6 100.00 65.00 0.00 29.40 770.6 Vx 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
6 7 100.00 68.10 0.00 30.79 801.4
6 8 89.70 70.30 0.00 29.78 831.2
6 9 81.00 61.00 0.00 21.00 852.2
6 10 69.10 54.40 0.00 11.75 863.9
6 11 72.20 51.20 0.00 11.70 875.6
6 12 79.90 49.50 0.00 14.73 890.4
6 13 77.10 56.60 0.00 16.85 907.2
6 14 69.60 52.40 0.00 11.00 918.2
6 15 68.60 48.30 0.00 8.66 926.9 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
6 16 69.70 47.30 0.00 8.90 935.8
6 17 79.10 47.00 0.00 13.44 949.2
6 18 67.20 55.10 0.00 11.15 960.4
6 19 78.20 45.00 0.00 12.44 972.8
6 20 81.70 47.90 0.00 15.02 987.8 Vx 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
6 21 79.70 58.10 0.00 18.90 1006.7
6 22 85.70 50.50 0.00 18.10 1024.8 Vx
6 23 80.10 62.30 0.00 21.20 1046.0
6 24 74.80 55.30 0.00 15.05 1061.1
6 25 81.50 53.50 0.00 17.50 1078.6 Vx
6 26 90.80 51.20 0.00 20.68 1099.3
6 27 93.20 58.30 0.00 24.88 1124.1 Vx
6 28 95.00 68.30 0.00 30.09 1154.2
6 29 94.40 64.90 0.00 28.36 1182.6 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
6 30 90.50 65.60 0.00 27.71 1210.3 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 26.17 1236.5 Vx Vn
7 2 89.80 62.80 0.00 26.10 1262.6 Vx Vn
7 3 85.60 65.00 0.00 25.30 1287.9 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.70 0.00 19.10 1307.0 Vx Vn
7 5 80.30 58.40 0.00 19.35 1326.3
7 6 80.60 60.50 0.00 20.55 1346.9 Vx
7 7 81.70 60.70 0.00 21.20 1368.1 Vx Vn
7 8 77.60 61.10 0.00 19.35 1387.4 Vx
7 9 78.00 57.80 0.00 17.90 1405.3 Vx
7 10 69.70 58.90 0.00 14.30 1419.6
7 11 78.50 59.70 0.00 19.10 1438.7
7 12 77.20 58.50 0.00 17.85 1456.6
7 13 83.20 59.70 0.00 21.45 1478.0 Vx
7 14 90.00 53.50 0.00 21.55 1499.6 Vx 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
7 15 81.40 59.30 0.00 20.35 1519.9 Vx
7 16 83.60 60.60 0.00 22.10 1542.0 Vx
7 17 88.10 60.00 0.00 24.05 1566.1 Vx
7 18 80.80 62.40 0.00 21.60 1587.7 Vx
7 19 79.50 61.60 0.00 20.55 1608.2 Vx 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
7 20 87.70 63.10 0.00 25.40 1633.6 Vx
7 21 95.00 56.50 0.00 24.46 1658.1 Vx
7 22 82.60 64.30 0.00 23.45 1681.5 Vx Vn
7 23 85.20 58.50 0.00 21.85 1703.4
7 24 90.20 55.10 0.00 22.41 1725.8 Vx
7 25 96.70 60.10 0.00 26.55 1752.3 Vx
7 26 95.60 72.90 0.00 32.31 1784.6 Vx 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
7 27 96.60 70.00 0.00 31.15 1815.8
7 28 99.00 66.40 0.00 29.88 1845.7
7 29 101.90 67.00 0.00 30.56 1876.2 Vx
7 30 94.80 76.30 0.00 33.73 1910.0 Vx
7 31 87.20 62.60 0.00 24.90 1934.9 Vx Vn
8 1 90.60 55.40 0.00 22.70 1957.6 Vx Vn 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
8 2 78.40 61.10 0.00 19.75 1977.3 Vx Vn
8 3 84.10 56.50 0.00 20.30 1997.6 Vx
8 4 92.90 54.20 0.00 22.80 2020.4 Vx Vn
8 5 94.40 54.70 0.00 23.44 2043.8 Vx
8 6 89.90 64.30 0.00 26.88 2070.7
8 7 83.00 64.20 0.00 23.60 2094.3 Vx
8 8 78.50 55.00 0.00 16.75 2111.1
8 9 74.50 56.70 0.00 15.60 2126.7 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
8 10 84.00 58.00 0.00 21.00 2147.7 Vx
8 11 90.40 57.60 0.00 23.72 2171.4 Vx Vn
8 12 95.90 61.30 0.00 26.96 2198.4 Vx Vn
8 13 98.00 65.50 0.00 29.32 2227.7 Vx Vn 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
8 14 95.80 70.70 0.00 31.34 2259.0 Vx Vn
8 15 95.90 62.40 0.00 27.48 2286.5 Vx Vn
8 16 98.80 63.80 0.00 28.67 2315.2 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
8 17 95.00 65.40 0.00 28.72 2343.9 Vx
8 18 97.50 62.60 0.00 27.88 2371.8
8 19 94.10 59.10 0.00 25.50 2397.3
8 20 99.50 55.80 0.00 25.07 2422.3
8 21 98.30 66.40 0.00 29.78 2452.1
8 22 83.80 56.70 0.00 20.25 2472.4
8 23 86.60 51.20 0.00 18.90 2491.3
8 24 86.90 52.80 0.00 19.85 2511.1 Vx
8 25 95.90 50.70 0.00 21.87 2533.0
8 26 94.00 50.00 0.00 21.05 2554.0
8 27 92.80 71.70 0.00 31.25 2585.3
8 28 95.70 59.30 0.00 25.96 2611.2 Vn
8 29 91.80 57.30 0.00 24.01 2635.3 Vx
8 30 85.10 64.10 0.00 24.60 2659.9
8 31 91.90 59.60 0.00 25.17 2685.0
9 1 80.90 59.50 0.00 20.20 2705.2
9 2 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 2721.4
9 3 74.40 58.30 0.00 16.35 2737.8
9 4 76.50 46.30 0.00 11.96 2749.7
9 5 74.70 53.40 0.00 14.05 2763.8 Vx
9 6 66.60 57.10 0.00 11.85 2775.6
9 7 79.20 60.00 0.00 19.60 2795.2
9 8 80.50 60.70 0.00 20.60 2815.8
9 9 81.50 50.20 0.00 15.85 2831.7
9 10 92.60 45.60 0.00 19.06 2850.7
9 11 75.80 59.00 0.00 17.40 2868.1 Vx
9 12 73.10 45.30 0.00 10.03 2878.2 Vx
9 13 74.30 38.10 0.00 9.20 2887.4
9 14 81.80 47.10 0.00 14.81 2902.2
9 15 86.60 53.70 0.00 20.15 2922.3
9 16 90.00 51.00 0.00 20.31 2942.6
9 17 73.10 65.10 0.00 19.10 2961.7
9 18 74.50 60.80 0.00 17.65 2979.4
9 19 68.10 59.80 0.00 13.95 2993.3 Vx
9 20 71.20 49.80 0.00 10.51 3003.8
9 21 65.10 41.30 0.00 5.53 3009.4
9 22 58.50 48.60 0.00 3.78 3013.1
9 23 68.20 53.90 0.00 11.05 3024.2
9 24 70.80 52.60 0.00 11.70 3035.9 Vx
9 25 84.90 50.20 0.00 17.55 3053.4
9 26 82.80 48.00 0.00 15.60 3069.1 Vx
9 27 87.20 60.30 0.00 23.75 3092.8
9 28 79.10 52.00 0.00 15.55 3108.4
9 29 81.80 48.00 0.00 15.11 3123.5
9 30 77.10 55.30 0.00 16.20 3139.7
10 1 72.60 48.60 0.00 10.74 3150.4
10 2 66.30 38.80 0.00 5.73 3156.1 Vx
10 3 69.80 47.70 0.00 9.07 3165.2
10 4 67.20 48.80 0.00 8.13 3173.3
10 5 65.40 50.50 0.00 7.95 3181.3
10 6 68.00 51.90 0.00 9.95 3191.2
10 7 64.20 55.40 0.00 9.80 3201.0 Vx
10 8 72.70 49.00 0.00 10.94 3212.0 Vx
10 9 67.70 55.80 0.00 11.75 3223.7
10 10 61.80 48.50 0.00 5.37 3229.1
10 11 60.60 39.30 0.00 3.36 3232.4
10 12 59.10 29.70 0.00 2.22 3234.7
10 13 61.90 43.60 0.00 4.42 3239.1
10 14 68.30 53.00 0.00 10.65 3249.7
10 15 60.60 50.20 0.00 5.40 3255.1
10 16 64.90 51.40 0.00 8.15 3263.3
10 17 63.00 50.20 0.00 6.60 3269.9 Vx
10 18 59.10 48.80 0.00 4.13 3274.0
10 19 67.50 41.80 0.00 6.69 3280.7
10 20 69.70 57.20 0.00 13.45 3294.2
10 21 57.90 51.00 0.00 4.45 3298.6
10 22 62.00 44.10 0.00 4.54 3303.1
10 23 57.00 43.40 0.00 2.27 3305.4
10 24 58.80 44.40 0.00 3.15 3308.6 Vx
10 25 66.40 48.50 0.00 7.64 3316.2
10 26 54.60 52.30 0.00 3.45 3319.6
10 27 55.70 50.60 0.00 3.15 3322.8 Vx
10 28 59.50 45.30 0.00 3.59 3326.4 Vx
10 29 49.00 45.70 0.00 0.00 3326.4
10 30 49.50 44.20 0.00 0.00 3326.4
10 31 57.60 47.80 0.00 3.15 3329.5
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24513 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth revised 07 model - Knight 2007Location: 2016 MF24513 Burkes Wondra OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-2-16 | 235 | 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight |
5-9-16 | 345 | 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight |
5-18-16 | 474 | 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight |
5-25-16 | 545 | 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight |
6-2-16 | 671 | 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight |
6-6-16 | 771 | 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight |
6-15-16 | 927 | 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight |
6-20-16 | 988 | 2nd generation: 5% moth flight |
6-29-16 | 1183 | 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight |
7-14-16 | 1500 | 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight |
7-19-16 | 1608 | 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight |
7-26-16 | 1785 | 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight |
8-1-16 | 1958 | 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight |
8-9-16 | 2127 | 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight |
8-13-16 | 2228 | 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight |
8-16-16 | 2315 | 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight |