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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 2007
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: actively undergoing evaluation
Region of known use: used in WA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
2. 340 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
3. 460 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
4. 535 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5. 655 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6. 755 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
7. 920 DDs after biofix: 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
8. 980 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
9. 1160 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
10. 1480 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
11. 1605 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
12. 1765 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
13. 1940 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
14. 2120 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
15. 2200 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
16. 2300 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF23241 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown McClellan OR Lat45.9528 Long:-118.4678 Elev:843
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 74.30 51.00 0.00 12.65 12.6 * START *Vn
4 11 75.70 47.60 0.00 11.95 24.6 Vn
4 12 68.20 51.40 0.00 9.80 34.4 Vx Vn
4 13 65.10 45.20 0.00 6.18 40.6 Vx Vn
4 14 63.00 43.60 0.00 4.92 45.5 Vx Vn
4 15 66.80 45.60 0.00 7.07 52.6 Vx Vn
4 16 72.20 37.80 0.00 8.21 60.8 Vx Vn
4 17 77.90 38.50 0.00 10.92 71.7 Vx Vn
4 18 80.80 42.20 0.00 13.02 84.7 Vx Vn
4 19 84.40 45.10 0.00 15.49 100.2 Vx Vn
4 20 86.70 43.80 0.00 16.26 116.5 Vx Vn
4 21 79.80 53.50 0.00 16.65 133.1 Vx Vn
4 22 78.00 54.20 0.00 16.10 149.2 Vx Vn
4 23 71.20 53.20 0.00 12.20 161.4 Vx Vn
4 24 67.00 48.10 0.00 7.81 169.2 Vx Vn
4 25 65.90 41.90 0.00 5.97 175.2 Vx Vn
4 26 67.00 42.40 0.00 6.55 181.8 Vx Vn
4 27 62.00 49.20 0.00 5.69 187.4 Vx Vn
4 28 72.10 50.00 0.00 11.05 198.5 Vx Vn
4 29 57.90 50.70 0.00 4.30 202.8 Vx Vn
4 30 68.80 48.30 0.00 8.76 211.6 Vx Vn
5 1 78.50 40.50 0.00 11.57 223.1 Vx Vn 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
5 2 85.10 32.00 0.00 13.17 236.3 Vx
5 3 68.30 9.00 0.00 4.46 240.8 Hx
5 4 68.60 43.40 0.00 7.47 248.2 Hx Hn
5 5 68.90 43.70 0.00 7.67 255.9 Hx Hn
5 6 77.10 53.20 0.00 15.15 271.1
5 7 82.00 53.00 0.00 17.50 288.6
5 8 75.40 60.40 0.00 17.90 306.5
5 9 64.00 47.10 0.00 6.07 312.5
5 10 72.90 40.00 0.00 8.87 321.4 Vx
5 11 81.20 45.40 0.00 14.01 335.4 Vx Vn
5 12 83.90 61.30 0.00 22.60 358.0 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
5 13 83.00 32.00 0.00 12.22 370.2
5 14 68.20 52.60 0.00 10.40 380.6
5 15 58.50 51.80 0.00 5.15 385.8
5 16 72.90 32.00 0.00 7.78 393.5
5 17 78.40 49.20 0.00 13.86 407.4
5 18 81.50 32.00 0.00 11.55 419.0
5 19 66.00 47.90 0.00 7.26 426.2
5 20 62.00 43.10 0.00 4.39 430.6
5 21 64.90 47.00 0.00 6.48 437.1
5 22 67.80 52.80 0.00 10.30 447.4
5 23 70.40 50.00 0.00 10.20 457.6 Vx
5 24 75.40 53.10 0.00 14.25 471.8 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
5 25 79.80 52.80 0.00 16.30 488.1
5 26 72.40 54.50 0.00 13.45 501.6
5 27 67.80 50.00 0.00 8.90 510.5
5 28 74.40 47.40 0.00 11.25 521.7
5 29 77.00 55.10 0.00 16.05 537.8 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5 30 76.60 49.30 0.00 13.00 550.8
5 31 84.20 45.40 0.00 15.48 566.3
6 1 82.70 52.00 0.00 17.35 583.6
6 2 76.10 64.00 0.00 20.05 603.7
6 3 87.20 56.80 0.00 22.00 625.7
6 4 94.10 52.90 0.00 22.49 648.1
6 5 93.70 57.30 0.00 24.53 672.7 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6 6 99.90 32.00 0.00 17.84 690.5 Vx
6 7 95.30 66.00 0.00 29.06 719.6
6 8 83.60 65.80 0.00 24.70 744.3
6 9 77.50 58.90 0.00 18.20 762.5 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
6 10 67.00 53.20 0.00 10.10 772.6
6 11 71.60 21.20 0.00 6.30 778.9
6 12 77.50 47.50 0.00 12.81 791.7
6 13 72.50 53.70 0.00 13.10 804.8
6 14 68.70 50.90 0.00 9.80 814.6
6 15 65.70 46.60 0.00 6.77 821.4
6 16 69.00 47.60 0.00 8.64 830.0
6 17 77.90 32.00 0.00 9.95 840.0
6 18 67.20 55.00 0.00 11.10 851.1
6 19 73.90 45.50 0.00 10.47 861.5
6 20 81.90 48.80 0.00 15.45 877.0 Vx
6 21 80.80 58.70 0.00 19.75 896.7
6 22 85.40 48.90 0.00 17.23 914.0 Vx Vn
6 23 81.70 62.40 0.00 22.05 936.0 Vx Vn 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
6 24 73.00 54.50 0.00 13.75 949.8 Vx Vn
6 25 81.60 52.20 0.00 16.90 966.7 Vx Vn
6 26 91.00 52.20 0.00 21.24 987.9 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
6 27 93.20 61.00 0.00 26.20 1014.1 Vx Vn
6 28 94.90 67.70 0.00 29.78 1043.9 Vx Vn
6 29 94.30 64.70 0.00 28.24 1072.1 Vx Vn
6 30 90.50 65.60 0.00 27.71 1099.8 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 26.17 1126.0 Vx Vn
7 2 89.80 62.60 0.00 26.00 1152.0 Vx Vn
7 3 85.60 64.90 0.00 25.25 1177.2 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
7 4 80.50 57.70 0.00 19.10 1196.3 Vx Vn
7 5 78.50 55.80 0.00 17.15 1213.5 Vx Vn
7 6 80.70 59.40 0.00 20.05 1233.5 Vx Vn
7 7 81.70 60.70 0.00 21.20 1254.7 Vx Vn
7 8 77.60 61.30 0.00 19.45 1274.2 Vx Vn
7 9 77.90 58.70 0.00 18.30 1292.5 Vx Vn
7 10 70.30 59.40 0.00 14.85 1307.3 Vx Vn
7 11 81.00 59.30 0.00 20.15 1327.5 Vx Vn
7 12 80.00 59.90 0.00 19.95 1347.4 Vx Vn
7 13 83.30 56.20 0.00 19.75 1367.2 Vx Vn
7 14 90.00 58.00 0.00 23.79 1391.0 Vx Vn
7 15 81.50 57.40 0.00 19.45 1410.4 Vx Vn
7 16 83.60 59.10 0.00 21.35 1431.8 Vx Vn
7 17 88.70 56.60 0.00 22.61 1454.4 Vx Vn
7 18 80.80 61.50 0.00 21.15 1475.5 Vx Vn
7 19 79.60 60.00 0.00 19.80 1495.3 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
7 20 87.70 60.20 0.00 23.95 1519.3 Vx Vn
7 21 95.00 55.70 0.00 24.07 1543.4 Vx Vn
7 22 82.70 64.20 0.00 23.45 1566.8 Vx Vn
7 23 84.40 59.40 0.00 21.90 1588.7 Vx Vn
7 24 90.00 53.40 0.00 21.50 1610.2 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
7 25 96.40 58.60 0.00 25.78 1636.0 Vx Vn
7 26 96.10 72.30 0.00 32.12 1668.1 Vx Vn
7 27 95.50 69.60 0.00 30.78 1698.9 Vx Vn
7 28 99.30 69.20 0.00 31.19 1730.1 Vx Vn
7 29 101.90 70.70 0.00 32.15 1762.2 Vx Vn
7 30 94.70 72.40 0.00 31.94 1794.2 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
7 31 87.10 62.60 0.00 24.85 1819.0 Vx Vn
8 1 90.50 55.20 0.00 22.57 1841.6 Vx Vn
8 2 78.20 60.60 0.00 19.40 1861.0 Vx Vn
8 3 84.00 54.80 0.00 19.40 1880.4 Vx Vn
8 4 92.70 53.90 0.00 22.60 1903.0 Vx Vn
8 5 94.40 63.40 0.00 27.64 1930.6 Vx Vn
8 6 89.00 60.70 0.00 24.77 1955.4 Vx Vn 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
8 7 83.00 62.10 0.00 22.55 1977.9 Vx Vn
8 8 76.90 54.20 0.00 15.55 1993.5 Vx Vn
8 9 74.80 57.00 0.00 15.90 2009.4 Vx Vn
8 10 84.00 56.90 0.00 20.45 2029.8 Vx Vn
8 11 90.40 57.60 0.00 23.72 2053.6 Vx Vn
8 12 95.80 61.20 0.00 26.89 2080.5 Vx Vn
8 13 98.00 65.50 0.00 29.32 2109.8 Vx Vn
8 14 95.80 70.60 0.00 31.29 2141.1 Vx Vn 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
8 15 96.00 61.50 0.00 27.07 2168.1 Vx Vn
8 16 95.90 65.10 0.00 28.75 2196.9 Vx Vn
8 17 94.70 63.90 0.00 27.94 2224.8 Vx Vn 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
8 18 96.80 65.80 0.00 29.25 2254.1 Vx Vn
8 19 89.30 64.50 0.00 26.77 2280.9 Vx Vn
8 20 94.60 55.10 0.00 23.68 2304.5 Vx Vn 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
8 21 95.40 65.00 0.00 28.61 2333.1 Vx Vn
8 22 80.40 56.00 0.00 18.20 2351.3 Vx Vn
8 23 83.10 54.50 0.00 18.80 2370.1 Vx Vn
8 24 86.90 51.70 0.00 19.30 2389.4 Vx Vn
8 25 89.70 51.50 0.00 20.45 2409.9 Vx Vn
8 26 91.50 57.50 0.00 24.02 2433.9 Vx Vn
8 27 91.10 68.90 0.00 29.50 2463.4 Vx Vn
8 28 89.50 62.00 0.00 25.60 2489.0 Vx Vn
8 29 92.00 56.60 0.00 23.72 2512.7 Vx Vn
8 30 82.40 61.70 0.00 22.05 2534.8 Vx Vn
8 31 83.30 59.60 0.00 21.45 2556.2 Vx Vn
9 1 79.10 59.40 0.00 19.25 2575.5 Vx Vn
9 2 74.40 55.30 0.00 14.85 2590.3 Vx Vn
9 3 73.20 51.20 0.00 12.20 2602.5 Vx Vn
9 4 74.50 47.30 0.00 11.26 2613.8 Vx Vn
9 5 74.70 52.10 0.00 13.40 2627.2 Vx Vn
9 6 65.80 55.00 0.00 10.40 2637.6 Vx Vn
9 7 77.40 58.20 0.00 17.80 2655.4 Vx Vn
9 8 79.30 56.70 0.00 18.00 2673.4 Vx Vn
9 9 78.90 46.20 0.00 13.11 2686.5 Vx Vn
9 10 89.20 52.00 0.00 20.51 2707.0 Vx Vn
9 11 75.70 51.20 0.00 13.45 2720.5 Vx Vn
9 12 73.10 43.90 0.00 9.71 2730.2 Vx Vn
9 13 72.60 44.70 0.00 9.65 2739.8 Vx Vn
9 14 78.90 46.20 0.00 13.11 2752.9 Vx Vn
9 15 83.50 53.00 0.00 18.25 2771.2 Vx Vn
9 16 88.10 53.10 0.00 20.60 2791.8 Vx Vn
9 17 72.30 62.40 0.00 17.35 2809.1 Vx Vn
9 18 73.10 59.10 0.00 16.10 2825.2 Vx Vn
9 19 67.90 57.10 0.00 12.50 2837.7 Vx Vn
9 20 70.60 48.70 0.00 9.78 2847.5 Vx Vn
9 21 68.60 45.50 0.00 7.91 2855.4 Vx Vn
9 22 57.20 42.70 0.00 2.28 2857.7 Vx Vn
9 23 67.40 51.50 0.00 9.45 2867.2 Vx Vn
9 24 71.20 51.20 0.00 11.20 2878.4 Vx Vn
9 25 83.00 48.80 0.00 16.00 2894.4 Vx Vn
9 26 82.70 49.20 0.00 16.00 2910.4 Vx Vn
9 27 83.90 58.60 0.00 21.25 2931.6 Vx Vn
9 28 77.00 50.60 0.00 13.80 2945.4 Vx Vn
9 29 79.30 50.20 0.00 14.75 2960.2 Vx Vn
9 30 74.60 54.40 0.00 14.50 2974.7 Vx Vn
10 1 70.40 48.50 0.00 9.62 2984.3 Vx Vn
10 2 66.30 38.20 0.00 5.65 2989.9 Vx Vn
10 3 68.40 48.10 0.00 8.50 2998.4 Vx Vn
10 4 66.90 47.70 0.00 7.64 3006.1 Vx Vn
10 5 65.10 49.10 0.00 7.19 3013.3 Vx Vn
10 6 66.70 51.10 0.00 8.90 3022.2 Vx Vn
10 7 63.50 55.90 0.00 9.70 3031.9 Vx Vn
10 8 72.50 50.10 0.00 11.30 3043.2 Vx Vn
10 9 66.10 53.80 0.00 9.95 3053.1 Vx Vn
10 10 60.90 44.00 0.00 4.03 3057.1 Vx Vn
10 11 58.80 37.10 0.00 2.49 3059.6 Vx Vn
10 12 58.50 30.60 0.00 2.06 3061.7 Vx Vn
10 13 61.50 43.10 0.00 4.17 3065.9 Vx Vn
10 14 68.30 52.60 0.00 10.45 3076.3 Vx Vn
10 15 61.40 50.20 0.00 5.80 3082.1 Vx Vn
10 16 64.40 50.90 0.00 7.65 3089.8 Vx Vn
10 17 62.60 48.50 0.00 5.76 3095.5 Vx Vn
10 18 58.90 47.60 0.00 3.73 3099.2 Vx Vn
10 19 65.90 42.20 0.00 6.02 3105.3 Vx Vn
10 20 67.80 56.80 0.00 12.30 3117.6 Vx Vn
10 21 55.50 51.40 0.00 3.45 3121.0 Vx Vn
10 22 61.60 43.30 0.00 4.24 3125.3 Vx Vn
10 23 56.40 43.50 0.00 2.03 3127.3 Vx Vn
10 24 57.60 42.10 0.00 2.39 3129.7 Vx Vn
10 25 65.10 47.30 0.00 6.65 3136.3 Vx Vn
10 26 57.10 52.30 0.00 4.70 3141.0 Vx Vn
10 27 55.60 50.20 0.00 2.90 3143.9 Vx Vn
10 28 56.90 42.50 0.00 2.14 3146.1 Vx Vn
10 29 49.00 43.80 0.00 0.00 3146.1 Vx Vn
10 30 49.40 44.20 0.00 0.00 3146.1 Vx Vn
10 31 57.70 47.60 0.00 3.16 3149.2 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF23241 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth revised 07 model - Knight 2007Location: 2016 MF23241 Brown McClellan OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME Date | DDs | Event |
5-1-16 | 223 | 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight |
5-12-16 | 358 | 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight |
5-24-16 | 472 | 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight |
5-29-16 | 538 | 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight |
6-5-16 | 673 | 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight |
6-9-16 | 762 | 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight |
6-23-16 | 936 | 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight |
6-26-16 | 988 | 2nd generation: 5% moth flight |
7-3-16 | 1177 | 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight |
7-19-16 | 1495 | 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight |
7-24-16 | 1610 | 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight |
7-30-16 | 1794 | 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight |
8-6-16 | 1955 | 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight |
8-14-16 | 2141 | 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight |
8-17-16 | 2225 | 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight |
8-20-16 | 2305 | 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight |