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apple maggot % emerge [cherry, apple]
insect model
of Jones et al 89
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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: apple maggot % emerge [cherry, apple]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Jones et al 89
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 44 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 113 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: initialize at first emergence from traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 6 15
Ending date: 10 0
Model validation status: testing
Region of known use: UT and OR
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 318 DD after 1st emerge 5% fly emerge
2. 541 DD after 1st emerge 25% fly emerge
3. 797 DD after 1st emerge 50% fly emerge
4. 1046 DD after 1st emerge 75% fly emerge
5. 1252 DD after 1st emerge 95% fly emerge
6. 1694 DD after 1st emerge 99% fly emerge
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2021 D5914 APRSWXNET Anacortes DW5914 WA Lat48.5517 Long:-122.5944 Elev:896
mn day max min precip DD44 CUMDD44 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
6 15 69.00 51.00 0.00 16.00 16.0 * START *
6 16 66.00 54.00 0.00 16.00 32.0
6 17 73.00 52.00 0.00 18.50 50.5
6 18 69.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 66.0
6 19 68.00 49.00 0.00 14.50 80.5
6 20 70.00 53.00 0.00 17.50 98.0
6 21 76.00 63.00 0.00 25.50 123.5
6 22 71.00 55.00 0.00 19.00 142.5
6 23 68.00 51.00 0.00 15.50 158.0
6 24 72.00 51.00 0.00 17.50 175.5
6 25 78.00 59.00 0.00 24.50 200.0
6 26 85.00 64.00 0.00 30.50 230.5
6 27 87.00 71.00 0.00 35.00 265.5
6 28 90.00 69.00 0.00 35.50 301.0
6 29 83.00 59.00 0.00 27.00 328.0 5% fly emerge
6 30 70.00 57.00 0.00 19.50 347.5
7 1 73.00 58.00 0.00 21.50 369.0
7 2 74.00 53.00 0.00 19.50 388.5
7 3 77.00 55.00 0.00 22.00 410.5
7 4 75.00 54.00 0.00 20.50 431.0
7 5 70.00 54.00 0.00 18.00 449.0
7 6 75.00 51.00 0.00 19.00 468.0
7 7 64.00 53.00 0.00 14.50 482.5
7 8 68.00 53.00 0.00 16.50 499.0
7 9 75.00 53.00 0.00 20.00 519.0
7 10 67.00 52.00 0.00 15.50 534.5
7 11 74.00 52.00 0.00 19.00 553.5 25% fly emerge
7 12 74.00 51.00 0.00 18.50 572.0
7 13 71.00 52.00 0.00 17.50 589.5
7 14 65.00 52.00 0.00 14.50 604.0
7 15 63.00 52.00 0.00 13.50 617.5
7 16 67.00 53.00 0.00 16.00 633.5
7 17 70.00 55.00 0.00 18.50 652.0
7 18 73.00 52.00 0.00 18.50 670.5
7 19 75.00 52.00 0.00 19.50 690.0
7 20 68.00 55.00 0.00 17.50 707.5
7 21 68.00 52.00 0.00 16.00 723.5
7 22 70.00 51.00 0.00 16.50 740.0
7 23 74.00 53.00 0.00 19.50 759.5
7 24 76.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 780.5
7 25 73.00 54.00 0.00 19.50 800.0 50% fly emerge
7 26 73.00 54.00 0.00 19.50 819.5
7 27 76.00 54.00 0.00 21.00 840.5
7 28 78.00 53.00 0.00 21.50 862.0
7 29 80.00 53.00 0.00 22.50 884.5
7 30 83.00 54.00 0.00 24.50 909.0
7 31 67.00 58.00 0.00 18.50 927.5
8 1 71.00 57.00 0.00 20.00 947.5
8 2 75.00 55.00 0.00 21.00 968.5
8 3 75.00 56.00 0.00 21.50 990.0
8 4 78.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 1012.5
8 5 73.00 56.00 0.01 20.50 1033.0
8 6 70.00 57.00 0.11 19.50 1052.5 75% fly emerge
8 7 65.00 55.00 0.02 16.00 1068.5
8 8 70.00 55.00 0.00 18.50 1087.0
8 9 70.00 56.00 0.00 19.00 1106.0
8 10 73.00 54.00 0.00 19.50 1125.5
8 11 75.00 64.00 0.00 25.50 1151.0
8 12 84.00 62.00 0.00 29.00 1180.0
8 13 83.00 65.00 0.00 30.00 1210.0
8 14 75.00 60.00 0.00 23.50 1233.5
8 15 74.00 56.00 0.01 21.00 1254.5 95% fly emerge
8 16 69.00 56.00 0.03 18.50 1273.0
8 17 68.00 54.00 0.03 17.00 1290.0
8 18 71.00 54.00 0.00 18.50 1308.5
8 19 69.00 54.00 0.00 17.50 1326.0
8 20 63.00 55.00 0.00 15.00 1341.0
8 21 67.00 55.00 0.00 17.00 1358.0
8 22 65.00 54.00 0.02 15.50 1373.5
8 23 64.00 53.00 0.02 14.50 1388.0
8 24 66.00 52.00 0.00 15.00 1403.0
8 25 72.00 52.00 0.00 18.00 1421.0
8 26 64.00 56.00 0.06 16.00 1437.0
8 27 67.00 54.00 0.05 16.50 1453.5
8 28 70.00 51.00 0.00 16.50 1470.0
8 29 71.00 53.00 0.00 18.00 1488.0
8 30 64.00 53.00 0.00 14.50 1502.5
8 31 62.00 51.00 0.00 12.50 1515.0
9 1 62.00 47.00 0.00 10.50 1525.5
9 2 70.00 52.00 0.00 17.00 1542.5
9 3 70.00 53.00 0.00 17.50 1560.0
9 4 70.00 56.00 0.01 19.00 1579.0
9 5 64.00 57.00 0.01 16.50 1595.5
9 6 66.00 55.00 0.00 16.50 1612.0
9 7 69.00 55.00 0.01 18.00 1630.0
9 8 74.00 60.00 0.01 23.00 1653.0
9 9 77.00 58.00 0.00 23.50 1676.5
9 10 68.00 57.00 0.00 18.50 1695.0 99% fly emerge
9 11 63.00 55.00 1.04 15.00 1710.0
9 12 64.00 52.00 0.89 14.00 1724.0
9 13 64.00 51.00 0.00 13.50 1737.5
9 14 58.00 50.00 0.11 10.00 1747.5
9 15 60.00 50.00 0.00 11.00 1758.5
9 16 60.00 46.00 0.31 9.00 1767.5
9 17 60.00 52.00 1.14 12.00 1779.5
9 18 64.00 53.00 0.22 14.50 1794.0
9 19 61.00 52.00 0.03 12.50 1806.5
9 20 64.00 51.00 0.00 13.50 1820.0
9 21 64.00 48.00 0.00 12.00 1832.0
9 22 62.00 53.00 0.00 13.50 1845.5
9 23 64.00 50.00 0.00 13.00 1858.5
9 24 66.00 52.00 0.00 15.00 1873.5
9 25 69.00 52.00 0.02 16.50 1890.0
9 26 61.00 52.00 0.45 12.50 1902.5
9 27 62.00 53.00 0.14 13.50 1916.0
9 28 57.00 49.00 0.12 9.00 1925.0
9 29 59.00 49.00 0.43 10.00 1935.0
9 30 60.00 52.00 0.15 12.00 1947.0
Forecast using: 1910 D5914 PRISM_rev1_4km 2011-2020 AVERAGES Lat48.5517 Long-122.5944 DD50
apple maggot % emerge model - Jones et al 89Location: 2021 D5914 Anacortes DW5914 WA 1910 D5914 PRISM_rev1_4km 2011-2020 AVERAGES | Date | DDs | Event |
| 6-29-21 | 328 | 5% fly emerge |
| 7-11-21 | 554 | 25% fly emerge |
| 7-25-21 | 800 | 50% fly emerge |
| 8-6-21 | 1052 | 75% fly emerge |
| 8-15-21 | 1254 | 95% fly emerge |
| 9-10-21 | 1695 | 99% fly emerge |
![degree-day graph of apple maggot % emerge [cherry, apple] Jones et al 89](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?968492)
