Integrated
Plant Protection Center at Oregon State
University


ONLINE IPM WEATHER DATA and DEGREE-DAYS

CURRENT CONDITIONS

note Disclaimer


7/23/98
Previous updates available for July 15, July 2, June 24, June 15, June 9, June 1 and May 26 update.
The next update will not be until Aug. 10 or so (I will be out of town).

Temperatures are continuing to be "normal" in W. Oregon, hot in S & E Oregon
In W. Oregon, since about May 31, temperatures have been almost exactly normal. In general, we are pretty much "back on track" with timing of pest developments. In Central Oregon (Madras), the hot temperatures have now "caught up" with historical average degree-day accumulations. In far Eastern and Southeastern Oregon, degree-days remain behind the normals [see map of Oregon Degree-days vs. Normals].

In the Willamette valley, both cabbage loopers and black cutworms have reached record high numbers in pheromone traps within the past week, indicating increased risk and need to check for worms in broccoli and corn fields. Counts of bertha armyworm have been zero since early June, and corn earworm has been near zero so far. Send in any reports from other regions and crops of pest developments to me at coopl@bcc.orst.edu. Check the Oregon Climate Service, The Weather Channel, or your favorite weather data source for the latest forecasts.

graph

madras graph

Cumulative Degree-Day (base 50 F) comparisons created using JAVA degree-day calculator

The updated graph shows that in Corvallis (as in most of W. Oregon), the degree-day accumulations were uncannily normal for June and July, and have not caught up with 1997 (which had a warm May). In Madras (Central Oregon), temperatures were also near normal for June, and have been warmer than normal in late July, and has now caught up with both 1997 and the historical normals.


Individual Pest Model Predictions (selected)

note: forecasts are made using actual 5-day forecasts followed by historical normals

Be sure to visit Franz Niederholzer's Page for Hood River County Weather data and Model Predictions

Codling moth **** revised 7-23-98 ****

  • Medford - BIOFIX Apr 21; 3% egg hatch was predicted June 1; 20% egg hatch June 9; 50% egg hatch June 19, 75% egg hatch June 28, 95% egg hatch July 8, second generation 5% adult emergence July 17, second generation 7% egg hatch predicted on July 27, and second generation 30% egg hatch predicted on Aug 5.
  • Corvallis/Eugene - BIOFIX Apr 30; 3% egg hatch was predicted June 9; 20% egg hatch June 21, 50% egg hatch July 2, 75% egg hatch July 10, 95% egg hatch July 21, second generation 5% adult emergence predicted on July 30, and second generation 7% egg hatch predicted on August 14.
  • Hood River (lower valley) - BIOFIX Apr 24; 3% egg hatch predicted on May 31; 20% egg hatch June 9, 50% egg hatch June 20, 75% egg hatch June 29, 95% egg hatch July 10, next generation 5% adult emergence July 21, and second generation 7% egg hatch predicted on August 3.
  • Parkdale (upper Hood River valley) - BIOFIX May 8; 3% egg hatch predicted on June 20; 20% egg hatch June 30, 50% egg hatch July 8, 75% egg hatch June 16, [forecasts using Parkdale 1996 data]: 95% egg hatch July 26, next generation 5% adult emergence predicted on Aug. 7, and second generation 7% egg hatch predicted on August 24.

Pandemis leafroller **** revised 7-23-98 ****
note: this is a new implementation of the Brunner model, using a default BIOFIX of March 1
  • Hood River (lower valley) - first moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted May 31, first egg hatch June 17, 50% egg hatch June 20, 95% moth emergence June 24, first moth catch (2nd flight) predicted July 24, and 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) predicted Aug. 11

  • Parkdale (upper Hood River valley) - first moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 12, first egg hatch July 1, 50% egg hatch July 4, 95% moth emergence July 8, and first moth catch (2nd flight) predicted August 8

  • Corvallis - first moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 2, first egg hatch June 21, 50% egg hatch June 24, and 95% moth emergence June 29, first moth catch (2nd flight) predicted July 31, and 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) predicted Aug. 19

  • Medford - first moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 1, first egg hatch June 17, 50% egg hatch June 20, 95% moth emergence June 23, first moth catch (2nd flight) July 22, and 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) predicted Aug. 6

Obliquebanded leafroller **** revised 7-23-98 ****
note: this is the Hazelnut version of the model -
has not tested in pears and does not require a BIOFIX (default of March 1 always used)
  • McMinnville - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 7, first egglaying June 14, peak egg laying July 2, peak egg hatch July 15, and peak small larvae predicted July 29
  • Hood River - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 7, first egglaying June 13, 50% catch in pheromone traps June 23, peak egg laying and 80% catch in pheromone traps June 29, peak egg hatch July 12, and peak small larvae predicted July 26
  • Parkdale (upper Hood River valley) - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 20, first egglaying June 29, 50% catch in pheromone traps July 7, peak egg laying and 80% catch in pheromone traps July 20, peak egg hatch July 23, and peak small larvae predicted Aug. 9
  • Corvallis - 5% moth catch in pheromone traps was predicted June 12, first egglaying June 21, peak egg laying and 80% catch in pheromone traps July 7, peak egg hatch July 20, and peak small larvae predicted August 4

Filbertworm **** revised 7-23-98 ****
  • McMinnville - first moth emergence was predicted July 6, average first moth emergence July 8, first egglaying July 20, first egg hatch predicted July 27, and first larvae found in nuts predicted July 30
  • Forest Grove - first moth emergence was predicted July 1, average first moth emergence July 4, first eggs predicted July 17, first egg hatch July 23, and first larvae found in nuts predicted July 27
  • Corvallis - first moth emergence was predicted July 11, average first moth emergence July 14, first eggs predicted July 25, and first egg hatch predicted Aug. 2, and first larvae found in nuts predicted Aug. 6

Strawberry root weevil **** revised 7-23-98 ****
  • Corvallis - Currently egg hatch nearly completed, peak adult emergence June 19, peak egglaying July 7, and peak egg hatch July 21
  • Madras - Currently at peak egg hatch, peak adult emergence June 29, peak egglaying July 12, and peak egg hatch predicted July 23

San Jose scale **** revised 7-13-98 ****
**** note: the default BIOFIX of March 15 was confirmed as adequate for the Northern Willamette valley ****
  • Corvallis - First crawlers are normally expected the first week in June, this year predicted on June 15, average time of crawler treatment July 8, first second stage nymphs July 13, first pupae predicted July 25, and first male catch next generation predicted July 31

  • Salem - First crawlers were predicted on June 11, average time of crawler treatment predicted July 4, first second stage nymphs predicted July 8, first pupae July 21, and first male catch next generation predicted July 26


Disclaimer: No claims are made as to the correctness or appropriateness of this information for your particular needs. No specific pest control products are intended for endorsement or use. This responsibility rests solely with the people who interpret and implement information from this and other sources. Use all predictive information with caution - errors occur, and predictive models do not replace the need for proper monitoring in the field. If you observe conditions that differ substantially from model predictions, please contact us to determine if the model inputs were incorrect, if the model functioning or weather data are in error, or if the model is inappropriate for your conditions.

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This project funded in part by a grant from the USDA-Western Regional IPM program.

On-line since April 5, 1996
Last updated July 23, 1998
Contact Len Coop at coopl@bcc.orst.edu if you have any questions about this information.