Forecast Options allow us to use different assumptions and strategies for predicting future weather and climate, past the usual 5 or 7-day forecasts that we have begun to rely upon. Current options include:
1) 10 year averages (current default option), uses 2006-2015 10-year average PRISM data localized to the currently selected weather station as the extended weather forecast.
2) 30 year averages: uses 30-year Normals (currently 1981-2010) as the extended forecast.
3) Last years data: uses data from last year (so you assume this year will be similar to last year).
4) Data from 2 years ago: uses data from the year before last (so you assume this year will be similar to 2 years ago).
5) NMME seasonal (7-month) forecast: uses the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast system, which is an ensemble average of seven different extended (7-month) numerical models, all driven in part by scientific understanding of how ocean temperatures affect seasonal climate and weather patterns. Check the N. American NMME temperature and rainfall forecast anomaly maps, and the verification index to see how well their 1-7 month lead time forecasts have performed in the past. Use with caution.
6) CFSv2 seasonal (currently 3.5-month) forecast: uses the NOAA NCEP couple forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2) forecast system, In contrast to our NMME forecast, this is a single model from NOAA, and Fox Weather has customized it to attempt to reproduce realistic rainfall episodes rather than just smoothly interpolate temperatures and rainfall. More info expected soon on methods...Use with caution.