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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner 1991
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 930 DD after biofix First moth catch
2. 1160 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence
3. 1280 DD after biofix First egg hatch
4. 1345 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch
5. 1430 DD after biofix 95% moth emergence
6. 2250 DD after biofix First moth catch (2nd flight)
7. 2750 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
8. 2870 DD after biofix First egg hatch (2nd gen)
9. 3025 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
10. 3300 DD after biofix 95% emergence (2nd flight)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 C1244 APRSWXNET Pendleton CW1244 OR Lat45.6733 Long:-118.8069 Elev:1145
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 67.00 39.00 0.23 12.23 12.2 * START *
3 2 61.00 36.00 0.04 8.47 20.7
3 3 64.00 40.00 0.04 11.09 31.8
3 4 64.00 34.00 0.00 9.47 41.3
3 5 65.00 55.00 0.17 19.00 60.3
3 6 66.00 44.00 0.17 14.00 74.3
3 7 58.00 39.00 0.00 7.78 82.0
3 8 54.00 33.00 0.03 4.69 86.7
3 9 59.00 37.00 0.13 7.74 94.5
3 10 63.00 39.00 0.08 10.25 104.7
3 11 52.00 35.00 0.17 4.07 108.8
3 12 55.00 39.00 0.07 6.30 115.1
3 13 63.00 36.00 0.03 9.43 124.5
3 14 51.00 38.00 0.00 4.13 128.6
3 15 50.00 38.00 0.00 3.65 132.3
3 16 55.00 36.00 0.00 5.62 137.9
3 17 56.00 32.00 0.00 5.44 143.4
3 18 59.00 24.00 0.00 5.82 149.2
3 19 63.00 33.00 0.00 8.80 158.0
3 20 64.00 35.00 0.32 9.68 167.7
3 21 61.00 36.00 0.29 8.47 176.1
3 22 57.00 43.00 0.00 9.00 185.1
3 23 62.00 40.00 0.03 10.09 195.2
3 24 56.00 45.00 0.01 9.50 204.7
3 25 57.00 36.00 0.01 6.56 211.3
3 26 63.00 29.00 0.13 8.15 219.4
3 27 58.00 40.00 0.13 8.10 227.5
3 28 51.00 32.00 0.00 3.28 230.8
3 29 62.00 35.00 0.00 8.73 239.5
3 30 66.00 31.00 0.00 9.84 249.4
3 31 74.00 35.00 0.00 14.51 263.9
4 1 78.00 38.00 0.00 17.35 281.2
4 2 76.00 41.00 0.00 17.50 298.7
4 3 75.00 39.00 0.12 16.20 314.9
4 4 61.00 45.00 0.12 12.00 326.9
4 5 64.00 40.00 0.00 11.09 338.0
4 6 76.00 36.00 0.00 15.76 353.8
4 7 77.00 38.00 0.00 16.86 370.6
4 8 80.00 41.00 0.00 19.50 390.1
4 9 82.00 44.00 0.00 22.00 412.1
4 10 74.00 42.00 0.00 17.00 429.1
4 11 77.00 39.00 0.08 17.20 446.3
4 12 66.00 50.00 0.08 17.00 463.3
4 13 62.00 44.00 0.08 12.00 475.3
4 14 61.00 42.00 0.03 10.50 485.8
4 15 66.00 43.00 0.03 13.50 499.3
4 16 72.00 35.00 0.00 13.54 512.9
4 17 74.00 38.00 0.00 15.37 528.3
4 18 83.00 41.00 0.00 21.00 549.3
4 19 83.00 43.00 0.00 22.00 571.3
4 20 84.30 43.10 0.00 22.70 594.0 Vx Vn
4 21 78.00 50.00 0.00 23.00 617.0
4 22 75.00 53.00 0.17 23.00 640.0
4 23 70.00 53.00 0.01 20.50 660.5
4 24 66.00 47.00 0.01 15.50 676.0
4 25 66.00 40.00 0.00 12.08 688.0
4 26 69.00 44.00 0.03 15.50 703.5
4 27 63.00 46.00 0.01 13.50 717.0
4 28 71.00 51.00 0.01 20.00 737.0
4 29 58.00 50.00 0.00 13.00 750.0
4 30 67.00 47.00 0.00 16.00 766.0
5 1 77.00 39.00 0.00 17.20 783.2
5 2 84.00 43.00 0.00 22.50 805.7
5 3 88.00 49.00 0.00 27.14 832.9
5 4 79.00 55.00 0.14 26.00 858.9
5 5 72.00 53.00 0.01 21.50 880.4
5 6 76.00 53.00 0.01 23.50 903.9
5 7 84.00 53.00 0.00 27.50 931.4 First moth catch
5 8 75.00 53.00 0.00 23.00 954.4
5 9 67.00 47.00 0.00 16.00 970.4
5 10 74.00 39.00 0.00 15.70 986.1
5 11 86.00 41.00 0.00 22.44 1008.5
5 12 88.00 48.00 0.00 26.65 1035.2
5 13 83.00 46.00 0.19 23.50 1058.7
5 14 67.00 53.00 0.34 19.00 1077.7
5 15 58.00 53.00 0.29 14.50 1092.2
5 16 72.00 52.00 0.22 21.00 1113.2
5 17 80.00 47.00 0.00 22.50 1135.7
5 18 84.00 53.00 0.07 27.50 1163.2 50% moth emergence
5 19 67.00 48.00 0.00 16.50 1179.7
5 20 60.00 39.00 0.04 8.76 1188.4
5 21 60.00 43.00 0.52 10.50 1198.9
5 22 68.00 52.00 0.00 19.00 1217.9
5 23 71.00 47.00 0.00 18.00 1235.9
5 24 75.00 46.00 0.00 19.50 1255.4
5 25 79.00 46.00 0.00 21.50 1276.9
5 26 70.00 49.00 0.00 18.50 1295.4 First egg hatch
5 27 68.00 50.00 0.00 18.00 1313.4
5 28 78.00 48.00 0.00 22.00 1335.4
5 29 78.00 51.00 0.00 23.50 1358.9 50% egg hatch
5 30 79.00 50.00 0.00 23.50 1382.4
5 31 85.00 43.00 0.00 23.00 1405.4
6 1 89.00 50.00 0.01 27.95 1433.4 95% moth emergence
6 2 80.00 62.00 0.01 30.00 1463.4
6 3 90.00 56.00 0.00 31.17 1494.6
6 4 95.00 52.00 0.00 30.40 1525.0
6 5 99.00 58.00 0.00 33.89 1558.9
6 6 104.00 60.00 0.00 35.43 1594.3
6 7 103.00 61.00 0.00 35.75 1630.0
6 8 83.00 63.00 0.10 32.00 1662.0
6 9 83.00 56.00 0.25 28.50 1690.5
6 10 73.00 53.00 0.25 22.00 1712.5
6 11 75.00 47.00 0.00 20.00 1732.5
6 12 84.00 43.00 0.00 22.50 1755.0
6 13 73.00 51.00 0.00 21.00 1776.0
6 14 70.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 1795.0
6 15 67.00 43.00 0.01 14.00 1809.0
6 16 72.00 48.00 0.01 19.00 1828.0
6 17 76.00 46.00 0.58 20.00 1848.0
6 18 68.00 51.00 0.01 18.50 1866.5
6 19 75.00 43.00 0.00 18.00 1884.5
6 20 85.00 48.00 0.00 25.50 1910.0
6 21 85.00 57.00 0.00 30.00 1940.0
6 22 90.00 48.00 0.00 27.26 1967.3
6 23 83.00 59.00 0.01 30.00 1997.3
6 24 73.00 55.00 0.01 23.00 2020.3
6 25 86.00 47.00 0.00 25.43 2045.7
6 26 91.00 50.00 0.00 28.51 2074.2
6 27 98.00 55.00 0.00 32.36 2106.6
6 28 99.00 59.00 0.00 34.35 2140.9
6 29 98.00 59.00 0.00 34.19 2175.1
6 30 94.00 59.00 0.00 33.51 2208.6
7 1 88.80 54.00 0.00 29.86 2238.5 Vx
7 2 90.50 58.30 0.00 32.42 2270.9 Vx Vn First moth catch (2nd flight)
7 3 84.40 65.80 0.00 34.10 2305.0 Vx Vn
7 4 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 2333.0 Vx Vn
7 5 78.30 52.60 0.00 24.45 2357.5 Vx Vn
7 6 85.00 57.00 0.00 30.00 2387.5
7 7 82.00 53.00 0.17 26.50 2414.0
7 8 80.00 60.00 0.88 29.00 2443.0
7 9 78.00 58.00 0.25 27.00 2470.0
7 10 74.00 58.00 0.00 25.00 2495.0
7 11 85.00 57.00 0.08 30.00 2525.0
7 12 82.00 54.00 0.08 27.00 2552.0
7 13 88.00 56.00 0.00 30.61 2582.6
7 14 94.00 53.00 0.00 30.67 2613.2
7 15 85.00 58.00 0.00 30.50 2643.7
7 16 87.00 54.00 0.00 29.29 2673.0
7 17 91.00 55.00 0.00 30.94 2704.0
7 18 84.00 62.00 0.00 32.00 2736.0
7 19 82.00 58.00 0.00 29.00 2765.0 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
7 20 92.00 60.00 0.00 33.58 2798.6
7 21 98.00 56.00 0.00 32.82 2831.4
7 22 85.00 65.00 0.00 34.00 2865.4
7 23 89.00 54.00 0.00 29.92 2895.3 First egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 24 96.00 52.00 0.00 30.60 2925.9
7 25 102.00 57.00 0.00 33.87 2959.8
7 26 98.00 61.00 0.00 35.10 2994.9
7 27 99.00 59.00 0.00 34.35 3029.2 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 28 102.00 61.00 0.00 35.63 3064.9
7 29 104.00 63.00 0.00 36.71 3101.6
7 30 96.00 68.00 0.00 37.94 3139.5
7 31 87.00 54.00 0.00 29.29 3168.8
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 C1244 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
Pandemis leafroller model - Brunner 1991Location: 2016 C1244 Pendleton CW1244 OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-7-16 | 931 | First moth catch |
| 5-18-16 | 1163 | 50% moth emergence |
| 5-26-16 | 1295 | First egg hatch |
| 5-29-16 | 1359 | 50% egg hatch |
| 6-1-16 | 1433 | 95% moth emergence |
| 7-2-16 | 2271 | First moth catch (2nd flight) |
| 7-19-16 | 2765 | 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) |
| 7-23-16 | 2895 | First egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-27-16 | 3029 | 50% egg hatch (2nd gen) |
![degree-day graph of Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner 1991](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?479114)
