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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner 1991
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 930 DD after biofix First moth catch
2. 1160 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence
3. 1280 DD after biofix First egg hatch
4. 1345 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch
5. 1430 DD after biofix 95% moth emergence
6. 2250 DD after biofix First moth catch (2nd flight)
7. 2750 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
8. 2870 DD after biofix First egg hatch (2nd gen)
9. 3025 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
10. 3300 DD after biofix 95% emergence (2nd flight)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF26038 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Benito OR Lat45.9742 Long:-118.4092 Elev:866
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 64.50 39.60 0.00 11.19 11.2 * START *
3 2 61.00 41.10 0.00 10.05 21.2
3 3 64.50 44.40 0.00 13.45 34.7
3 4 63.70 32.10 0.00 8.97 43.7
3 5 66.10 49.00 0.00 16.55 60.2
3 6 67.50 48.60 0.00 17.05 77.3
3 7 56.90 42.70 0.00 8.80 86.1
3 8 53.80 32.50 0.00 4.53 90.6
3 9 59.10 43.20 0.00 10.15 100.7
3 10 64.30 48.80 0.00 15.55 116.3
3 11 48.30 33.70 0.00 2.32 118.6
3 12 52.60 39.50 0.00 5.27 123.9
3 13 59.20 37.70 0.00 8.01 131.9
3 14 54.10 38.40 0.00 5.71 137.6
3 15 51.90 39.90 0.00 5.04 142.6
3 16 55.20 37.20 0.00 5.96 148.6
3 17 54.20 33.10 0.00 4.79 153.4
3 18 58.50 30.70 0.00 6.37 159.8
3 19 63.20 34.50 0.00 9.19 169.0
3 20 61.10 36.20 0.00 8.56 177.5
3 21 64.30 40.00 0.00 11.24 188.8
3 22 53.70 44.00 0.00 7.85 196.6
3 23 60.50 45.30 0.00 11.90 208.5
3 24 56.80 47.60 0.00 11.20 219.7
3 25 55.90 42.30 0.00 8.10 227.8
3 26 63.00 36.40 0.00 9.53 237.3
3 27 57.20 45.00 0.00 10.10 247.4
3 28 51.30 39.40 0.00 4.60 252.0 Vx
3 29 63.60 35.70 0.00 9.65 261.7
3 30 65.60 36.10 0.00 10.71 272.4
3 31 72.00 47.60 0.00 18.80 291.2
4 1 76.80 43.30 0.00 19.05 310.2
4 2 77.10 47.90 0.00 21.50 331.7
4 3 75.90 49.80 0.00 21.85 353.6
4 4 60.10 46.80 0.00 12.45 366.0
4 5 64.10 42.70 0.00 12.40 378.4
4 6 75.10 37.70 0.00 15.82 394.3
4 7 73.90 37.30 0.00 15.10 409.4
4 8 79.10 44.40 0.00 20.75 430.1
4 9 82.50 56.60 0.00 28.55 458.7
4 10 75.00 50.40 0.00 21.70 480.4
4 11 71.00 47.50 0.00 18.25 498.6
4 12 67.40 50.90 0.00 18.15 516.8
4 13 65.40 48.50 0.00 15.95 532.7
4 14 62.60 42.30 0.00 11.45 544.2
4 15 67.20 45.00 0.00 15.10 559.3
4 16 72.50 35.10 0.00 13.81 573.1
4 17 76.90 36.60 0.00 16.37 589.5
4 18 80.20 38.70 0.00 18.68 608.1
4 19 83.80 42.70 0.00 22.25 630.4
4 20 86.40 42.90 0.00 23.54 653.9
4 21 79.90 50.50 0.00 24.20 678.1
4 22 78.00 52.40 0.00 24.20 702.3
4 23 72.30 53.30 0.00 21.80 724.1
4 24 66.80 50.10 0.00 17.45 741.6
4 25 65.40 40.00 0.00 11.78 753.4
4 26 67.40 40.30 0.00 12.90 766.3
4 27 63.10 46.90 0.00 14.00 780.3
4 28 71.00 49.40 0.00 19.20 799.5
4 29 57.60 49.50 0.00 12.55 812.0
4 30 68.70 47.60 0.00 17.15 829.2
5 1 78.60 38.10 0.00 17.68 846.8
5 2 85.00 42.90 0.00 22.95 869.8
5 3 89.50 59.90 0.00 32.94 902.7
5 4 78.40 57.10 0.00 26.75 929.5
5 5 69.30 45.80 0.00 16.55 946.0 Hx Hn First moth catch
5 6 77.00 50.50 0.00 22.75 968.8
5 7 84.00 50.90 0.00 26.45 995.2
5 8 77.90 59.20 0.00 27.55 1022.8
5 9 64.50 47.60 0.00 15.05 1037.8
5 10 73.00 37.10 0.00 14.60 1052.4
5 11 83.30 46.00 0.00 23.65 1076.1 Vx Vn
5 12 86.50 64.10 0.00 34.13 1110.2
5 13 82.10 44.40 0.00 22.25 1132.5
5 14 68.20 53.50 0.00 19.85 1152.3
5 15 58.50 51.20 0.00 13.85 1166.2 50% moth emergence
5 16 72.90 52.20 0.00 21.55 1187.7
5 17 79.30 48.30 0.00 22.80 1210.5
5 18 81.80 56.10 0.00 27.95 1238.5
5 19 67.60 49.60 0.00 17.60 1256.1
5 20 62.90 42.70 0.00 11.80 1267.9
5 21 65.40 44.50 0.00 13.95 1281.8 First egg hatch
5 22 67.70 52.20 0.00 18.95 1300.8
5 23 70.50 51.10 0.00 19.80 1320.6 Vx
5 24 76.40 50.00 0.00 22.20 1342.8
5 25 79.00 49.40 0.00 23.20 1366.0 50% egg hatch
5 26 70.60 53.20 0.00 20.90 1386.9
5 27 68.30 50.90 0.00 18.60 1405.5
5 28 76.50 49.30 0.00 21.90 1427.4
5 29 79.00 54.30 0.00 25.65 1453.0 95% moth emergence
5 30 76.40 45.10 0.00 19.75 1472.8 Vx
5 31 83.20 40.50 0.00 20.87 1493.6
6 1 84.40 50.10 0.00 26.25 1519.9
6 2 76.30 65.20 0.00 29.75 1549.6
6 3 86.80 55.00 0.00 29.72 1579.4
6 4 91.90 50.50 0.00 28.98 1608.3
6 5 92.30 53.80 0.00 30.67 1639.0
6 6 99.50 61.90 0.00 35.71 1674.7 Vx
6 7 93.00 63.80 0.00 35.57 1710.3
6 8 85.30 68.00 0.00 35.63 1745.9
6 9 77.60 57.50 0.00 26.55 1772.5
6 10 67.20 53.60 0.00 19.40 1791.9
6 11 72.80 46.90 0.00 18.85 1810.7
6 12 79.20 46.10 0.00 21.65 1832.4
6 13 74.60 54.10 0.00 23.35 1855.7
6 14 69.10 51.40 0.00 19.25 1875.0
6 15 67.80 45.90 0.00 15.85 1890.8
6 16 69.20 45.70 0.00 16.45 1907.3
6 17 76.80 44.30 0.00 19.55 1926.8
6 18 67.20 55.60 0.00 20.40 1947.2
6 19 76.20 42.20 0.00 18.20 1965.4
6 20 81.50 47.10 0.00 23.30 1988.7 Vx
6 21 79.90 58.30 0.00 28.10 2016.8
6 22 85.00 46.00 0.00 24.50 2041.3
6 23 80.40 62.00 0.00 30.20 2071.5
6 24 72.80 53.80 0.00 22.30 2093.8
6 25 79.80 49.30 0.00 23.55 2117.4
6 26 87.90 47.50 0.00 26.37 2143.7
6 27 91.20 54.40 0.00 30.70 2174.4
6 28 92.60 62.40 0.00 34.84 2209.3
6 29 93.00 60.10 0.00 33.83 2243.1
6 30 87.30 63.90 0.00 34.29 2277.4 First moth catch (2nd flight)
7 1 87.00 57.00 0.00 30.78 2308.2
7 2 89.00 61.90 0.00 33.79 2342.0
7 3 85.00 66.80 0.00 34.90 2376.9
7 4 81.10 53.40 0.00 26.25 2403.1
7 5 80.50 51.60 0.00 25.05 2428.2
7 6 81.50 59.20 0.00 29.35 2457.5
7 7 80.00 56.80 0.00 27.40 2484.9
7 8 77.20 60.40 0.00 27.80 2512.7
7 9 77.10 57.90 0.00 26.50 2539.2
7 10 67.70 58.30 0.00 22.00 2561.2
7 11 79.40 58.70 0.00 28.05 2589.3
7 12 79.00 56.30 0.00 26.65 2615.9
7 13 83.70 56.80 0.00 29.25 2645.2
7 14 88.90 51.50 0.00 28.66 2673.8
7 15 81.70 56.80 0.00 28.25 2702.1
7 16 82.50 55.50 0.00 28.00 2730.1
7 17 85.50 54.40 0.00 28.92 2759.0 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
7 18 80.00 58.90 0.00 28.45 2787.5
7 19 78.80 56.80 0.00 26.80 2814.3
7 20 86.30 58.70 0.00 31.38 2845.6
7 21 92.60 52.80 0.00 30.26 2875.9 First egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 22 81.30 60.30 0.00 29.80 2905.7
7 23 83.00 53.50 0.00 27.25 2932.9
7 24 88.90 51.00 0.00 28.41 2961.4
7 25 96.90 55.60 0.00 32.45 2993.8 Vx
7 26 92.80 66.60 0.00 36.83 3030.6 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 27 92.60 64.10 0.00 35.64 3066.3
7 28 94.70 64.30 0.00 36.09 3102.4
7 29 96.30 63.00 0.00 35.75 3138.1
7 30 90.50 66.50 0.00 36.35 3174.5
7 31 83.60 57.80 0.00 29.70 3204.2
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF26038 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
Pandemis leafroller model - Brunner 1991Location: 2016 MF26038 Davis Benito OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-5-16 | 946 | First moth catch |
| 5-15-16 | 1166 | 50% moth emergence |
| 5-21-16 | 1282 | First egg hatch |
| 5-25-16 | 1366 | 50% egg hatch |
| 5-29-16 | 1453 | 95% moth emergence |
| 6-30-16 | 2277 | First moth catch (2nd flight) |
| 7-17-16 | 2759 | 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) |
| 7-21-16 | 2876 | First egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-26-16 | 3031 | 50% egg hatch (2nd gen) |
![degree-day graph of Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner 1991](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2838342)
