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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner 1991
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 7 31
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 930 DD after biofix First moth catch
2. 1160 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence
3. 1280 DD after biofix First egg hatch
4. 1345 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch
5. 1430 DD after biofix 95% moth emergence
6. 2250 DD after biofix First moth catch (2nd flight)
7. 2750 DD after biofix 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
8. 2870 DD after biofix First egg hatch (2nd gen)
9. 3025 DD after biofix 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
10. 3300 DD after biofix 95% emergence (2nd flight)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF24220 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Home OR Lat45.9581 Long:-118.4206 Elev:898
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 63.00 40.40 0.04 10.74 10.7 * START *
3 2 60.80 43.20 0.00 11.00 21.7
3 3 63.80 44.30 0.03 13.05 34.8
3 4 63.70 33.60 0.00 9.25 44.0
3 5 64.90 48.10 0.02 15.50 59.5
3 6 66.40 46.00 0.03 15.20 74.7
3 7 55.90 41.90 0.00 7.90 82.6
3 8 52.30 36.10 0.00 4.38 87.0
3 9 57.50 42.60 0.01 9.05 96.1
3 10 63.80 47.50 0.03 14.65 110.7
3 11 47.40 35.10 0.06 2.08 112.8
3 12 52.00 39.40 0.01 4.95 117.8
3 13 60.00 39.90 0.03 9.06 126.8
3 14 52.40 41.00 0.00 5.70 132.5
3 15 51.10 40.00 0.00 4.68 137.2
3 16 53.60 38.90 0.00 5.59 142.8
3 17 52.80 33.10 0.00 4.17 147.0
3 18 56.30 28.50 0.00 5.15 152.1
3 19 61.10 32.90 0.00 7.90 160.0
3 20 60.00 38.10 0.10 8.50 168.5
3 21 64.80 41.80 0.10 12.30 180.8
3 22 52.30 43.00 0.09 6.65 187.5
3 23 59.20 44.80 0.00 11.00 198.5
3 24 56.10 46.60 0.01 10.35 208.8
3 25 55.50 41.30 0.09 7.40 216.2
3 26 61.40 38.70 0.01 9.36 225.6
3 27 56.30 44.80 0.00 9.55 235.1
3 28 51.00 38.30 0.00 4.19 239.3 Vx
3 29 63.30 35.20 0.00 9.39 248.7
3 30 63.40 34.60 0.00 9.31 258.0
3 31 70.40 46.50 0.00 17.45 275.5
4 1 75.00 47.30 0.00 20.15 295.6
4 2 75.20 54.20 0.00 23.70 319.3
4 3 73.90 46.60 0.00 19.25 338.6
4 4 60.00 45.10 0.07 11.55 350.1
4 5 62.60 42.40 0.00 11.50 361.6
4 6 72.80 39.60 0.00 15.32 376.9
4 7 71.70 37.90 0.00 14.20 391.1
4 8 76.30 45.80 0.00 20.05 411.2
4 9 79.60 54.20 0.00 25.90 437.1
4 10 72.80 48.40 0.00 19.60 456.7
4 11 75.60 46.50 0.00 20.05 476.7
4 12 66.10 50.50 0.01 17.30 494.0
4 13 64.60 48.20 0.02 15.40 509.4
4 14 63.50 43.70 0.04 12.60 522.0
4 15 64.90 44.90 0.00 13.90 535.9
4 16 69.40 40.30 0.00 13.90 549.8
4 17 74.10 37.60 0.00 15.29 565.1
4 18 77.20 40.60 0.00 17.92 583.0
4 19 80.00 45.90 0.00 21.95 605.0
4 20 82.00 43.40 0.00 21.70 626.7
4 21 77.00 52.90 0.00 23.95 650.6
4 22 76.50 54.00 0.00 24.25 674.9
4 23 69.50 52.60 0.00 20.05 694.9
4 24 65.90 50.10 0.00 17.00 711.9
4 25 64.80 41.40 0.00 12.10 724.0
4 26 66.30 41.90 0.00 13.10 737.1
4 27 60.30 47.80 0.01 13.05 750.2
4 28 69.80 48.90 0.00 18.35 768.5
4 29 54.70 48.30 0.23 10.50 779.0
4 30 67.80 47.20 0.01 16.50 795.5
5 1 76.00 39.30 0.00 16.81 812.3
5 2 85.00 45.00 0.00 24.00 836.3
5 3 89.70 65.00 0.00 35.46 871.8
5 4 78.20 56.20 0.04 26.20 898.0
5 5 69.20 46.30 0.00 16.75 914.8 Hx Hn
5 6 74.70 51.00 0.00 21.85 936.6 First moth catch
5 7 80.40 52.40 0.00 25.40 962.0
5 8 76.30 54.00 0.00 24.15 986.2
5 9 65.70 46.50 0.00 15.10 1001.3
5 10 72.00 40.10 0.00 15.11 1016.4
5 11 81.10 46.30 0.00 22.70 1039.1 Vx Vn
5 12 85.40 62.90 0.00 33.13 1072.2
5 13 73.00 46.10 0.73 18.55 1090.8
5 14 67.00 53.10 0.10 19.05 1109.8
5 15 57.60 51.30 0.03 13.45 1123.3
5 16 70.20 51.80 0.03 20.00 1143.3
5 17 76.30 49.10 0.00 21.70 1165.0 50% moth emergence
5 18 81.20 57.50 0.00 28.35 1193.3
5 19 65.70 49.00 0.00 16.35 1209.7
5 20 62.50 43.00 0.00 11.75 1221.4
5 21 62.20 45.30 0.05 12.75 1234.2
5 22 67.20 52.10 0.00 18.65 1252.8
5 23 70.20 50.70 0.00 19.45 1272.3 Vx
5 24 74.60 52.00 0.00 22.30 1294.6 First egg hatch
5 25 71.40 49.50 0.39 19.45 1314.0
5 26 69.00 52.70 0.00 19.85 1333.9
5 27 66.50 50.30 0.00 17.40 1351.3 50% egg hatch
5 28 74.30 48.40 0.00 20.35 1371.6
5 29 77.40 53.80 0.00 24.60 1396.2
5 30 75.50 49.20 0.00 21.35 1417.6
5 31 84.80 47.80 0.00 25.30 1442.9 95% moth emergence
6 1 86.50 51.10 0.00 27.67 1470.5
6 2 71.70 58.10 0.39 23.90 1494.4
6 3 84.30 57.10 0.00 29.70 1524.1
6 4 91.20 53.00 0.00 30.02 1554.1
6 5 91.60 55.60 0.00 31.38 1585.5
6 6 99.20 64.50 0.40 36.81 1622.3 Vx
6 7 96.20 67.70 0.00 37.83 1660.2
6 8 87.90 70.70 0.00 37.79 1698.0
6 9 77.50 58.10 0.00 26.80 1724.8
6 10 67.50 52.80 0.05 19.15 1743.9
6 11 71.00 50.10 0.00 19.55 1763.5
6 12 76.40 45.00 0.30 19.70 1783.2
6 13 74.10 56.20 0.00 24.15 1807.3
6 14 68.00 50.70 0.00 18.35 1825.7
6 15 68.00 46.70 0.00 16.35 1842.0
6 16 62.20 46.10 0.41 13.15 1855.2
6 17 76.20 46.10 0.02 20.15 1875.3
6 18 65.80 53.90 0.11 18.85 1894.2
6 19 76.40 46.40 0.00 20.40 1914.6
6 20 81.40 47.70 0.00 23.55 1938.1 Vx
6 21 79.10 57.00 0.00 27.05 1965.2
6 22 84.20 48.40 0.00 25.30 1990.5
6 23 71.20 55.30 0.38 22.25 2012.7
6 24 71.20 53.40 0.01 21.30 2034.0
6 25 78.30 50.70 0.00 23.50 2057.5
6 26 87.20 50.60 0.00 27.67 2085.2
6 27 93.40 54.90 0.42 31.45 2116.6 Vx
6 28 90.60 64.20 0.00 35.28 2151.9
6 29 94.40 64.20 0.00 36.00 2187.9 Vx
6 30 90.40 65.30 0.00 35.76 2223.7 Vx Vn
7 1 86.00 55.20 0.41 29.52 2253.2 First moth catch (2nd flight)
7 2 89.80 63.50 0.00 34.76 2287.9 Vx
7 3 85.50 66.90 0.00 35.17 2323.1 Vx
7 4 79.90 54.50 0.00 26.20 2349.3
7 5 71.60 53.60 0.56 21.60 2370.9
7 6 78.30 59.00 0.00 27.65 2398.6
7 7 81.50 58.70 0.00 29.10 2427.7 Vx
7 8 77.80 60.20 0.16 28.00 2455.7 Vx
7 9 77.90 56.80 0.07 26.35 2482.0 Vx
7 10 66.50 57.90 0.00 21.20 2503.2
7 11 77.70 57.80 0.00 26.75 2530.0
7 12 76.40 57.20 0.02 25.80 2555.8
7 13 83.30 57.00 0.00 29.15 2584.9 Vx
7 14 89.70 52.60 0.31 29.43 2614.3 Vx
7 15 81.30 57.50 0.00 28.40 2642.7 Vx
7 16 83.60 58.30 0.00 29.95 2672.7 Vx
7 17 87.90 56.20 0.00 30.67 2703.4 Vx
7 18 80.70 58.10 0.08 28.40 2731.8 Vx
7 19 79.50 59.30 0.00 28.40 2760.2 Vx 50% moth emergence (2nd flight)
7 20 87.30 60.50 0.00 32.61 2792.8 Vx
7 21 94.90 56.40 0.00 32.46 2825.2 Vx
7 22 82.90 64.70 0.00 32.80 2858.0 Vx Vn
7 23 77.60 54.40 0.00 25.00 2883.0 First egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 24 90.00 53.00 0.00 29.71 2912.7 Vx
7 25 96.60 58.20 0.00 33.60 2946.3 Vx
7 26 95.30 72.60 0.00 39.85 2986.2 Vx Vn
7 27 90.60 67.70 0.00 36.94 3023.1
7 28 83.20 61.80 0.00 31.50 3054.6 50% egg hatch (2nd gen)
7 29 101.60 64.90 0.00 37.26 3091.9 Vx
7 30 94.60 71.70 0.00 39.38 3131.3 Vx Vn
7 31 86.80 62.50 0.00 33.44 3164.7 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF24220 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
Pandemis leafroller model - Brunner 1991Location: 2016 MF24220 Brown Home OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-6-16 | 937 | First moth catch |
| 5-17-16 | 1165 | 50% moth emergence |
| 5-24-16 | 1295 | First egg hatch |
| 5-27-16 | 1351 | 50% egg hatch |
| 5-31-16 | 1443 | 95% moth emergence |
| 7-1-16 | 2253 | First moth catch (2nd flight) |
| 7-19-16 | 2760 | 50% moth emergence (2nd flight) |
| 7-23-16 | 2883 | First egg hatch (2nd gen) |
| 7-28-16 | 3055 | 50% egg hatch (2nd gen) |
![degree-day graph of Pandemis leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner 1991](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?182896)
