Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 C1244 APRSWXNET Pendleton CW1244 OR Lat45.6733 Long:-118.8069 Elev:1145 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 60.00 39.00 0.04 7.26 7.3 * START * 5 21 60.00 43.00 0.52 8.50 15.8 5 22 68.00 52.00 0.00 17.00 32.8 5 23 71.00 47.00 0.00 16.00 48.8 5 24 75.00 46.00 0.00 17.50 66.3 5 25 79.00 46.00 0.00 19.50 85.8 5 26 70.00 49.00 0.00 16.50 102.3 5 27 68.00 50.00 0.00 16.00 118.3 5 28 78.00 48.00 0.00 20.00 138.3 5 29 78.00 51.00 0.00 21.50 159.8 50% catch 5 30 79.00 50.00 0.00 21.50 181.3 5 31 85.00 43.00 0.00 21.00 202.3 6 1 89.00 50.00 0.01 25.95 228.2 6 2 80.00 62.00 0.01 28.00 256.2 6 3 90.00 56.00 0.00 29.17 285.4 6 4 95.00 52.00 0.00 28.40 313.8 6 5 99.00 58.00 0.00 31.89 345.7 6 6 104.00 60.00 0.00 33.43 379.1 6 7 103.00 61.00 0.00 33.75 412.9 6 8 83.00 63.00 0.10 30.00 442.9 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 83.00 56.00 0.25 26.50 469.4 6 10 73.00 53.00 0.25 20.00 489.4 6 11 75.00 47.00 0.00 18.00 507.4 6 12 84.00 43.00 0.00 20.50 527.9 6 13 73.00 51.00 0.00 19.00 546.9 6 14 70.00 50.00 0.00 17.00 563.9 6 15 67.00 43.00 0.01 12.00 575.9 6 16 72.00 48.00 0.01 17.00 592.9 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 17 76.00 46.00 0.58 18.00 610.9 6 18 68.00 51.00 0.01 16.50 627.4 6 19 75.00 43.00 0.00 16.00 643.4 6 20 85.00 48.00 0.00 23.50 666.9 6 21 85.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 694.9 6 22 90.00 48.00 0.00 25.26 720.1 6 23 83.00 59.00 0.01 28.00 748.1 6 24 73.00 55.00 0.01 21.00 769.1 6 25 86.00 47.00 0.00 23.43 792.5 95% egg hatch 6 26 91.00 50.00 0.00 26.51 819.1 6 27 98.00 55.00 0.00 30.36 849.4 6 28 99.00 59.00 0.00 32.35 881.8 6 29 98.00 59.00 0.00 32.19 914.0 mostly small larvae present 6 30 94.00 59.00 0.00 31.51 945.5 7 1 88.80 54.00 0.00 27.86 973.3 Vx 7 2 90.50 58.30 0.00 30.42 1003.7 Vx Vn 7 3 84.40 65.80 0.00 32.10 1035.8 Vx Vn 7 4 81.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 1061.8 Vx Vn 7 5 78.30 52.60 0.00 22.45 1084.3 Vx Vn 7 6 85.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 1112.3 7 7 82.00 53.00 0.17 24.50 1136.8 7 8 80.00 60.00 0.88 27.00 1163.8 7 9 78.00 58.00 0.25 25.00 1188.8 7 10 74.00 58.00 0.00 23.00 1211.8 mostly large larvae present 7 11 85.00 57.00 0.08 28.00 1239.8 7 12 82.00 54.00 0.08 25.00 1264.8 7 13 88.00 56.00 0.00 28.61 1293.4 7 14 94.00 53.00 0.00 28.67 1322.1 7 15 85.00 58.00 0.00 28.50 1350.6 7 16 87.00 54.00 0.00 27.29 1377.9 7 17 91.00 55.00 0.00 28.94 1406.8 7 18 84.00 62.00 0.00 30.00 1436.8 7 19 82.00 58.00 0.00 27.00 1463.8 7 20 92.00 60.00 0.00 31.58 1495.4 5% catch next generation 7 21 98.00 56.00 0.00 30.82 1526.2 7 22 85.00 65.00 0.00 32.00 1558.2 7 23 89.00 54.00 0.00 27.92 1586.1 7 24 96.00 52.00 0.00 28.60 1614.7 7 25 102.00 57.00 0.00 31.87 1646.6 7 26 98.00 61.00 0.00 33.10 1679.7 7 27 99.00 59.00 0.00 32.35 1712.0 7 28 102.00 61.00 0.00 33.63 1745.7 7 29 104.00 63.00 0.00 34.71 1780.4 7 30 96.00 68.00 0.00 35.94 1816.3 7 31 87.00 54.00 0.00 27.29 1843.6 8 1 92.00 51.00 0.00 27.25 1870.9 8 2 79.00 57.00 0.00 25.00 1895.9 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 3 87.00 53.00 0.00 26.79 1922.7 8 4 95.00 51.00 0.00 27.93 1950.6 8 5 96.00 55.00 0.00 30.01 1980.6 8 6 90.00 61.00 0.00 31.60 2012.2 8 7 83.00 54.00 0.00 25.50 2037.7 8 8 76.00 53.00 0.13 21.50 2059.2 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 9 78.00 56.00 0.04 24.00 2083.2 8 10 86.00 51.00 0.00 25.43 2108.6 8 11 93.00 52.00 0.00 27.97 2136.6 8 12 97.00 54.00 0.00 29.73 2166.3 8 13 99.00 57.00 0.00 31.44 2197.8 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 14 99.00 59.00 0.00 32.35 2230.1 8 15 99.00 56.00 0.00 30.99 2261.1 8 16 98.00 54.00 0.00 29.90 2291.0 8 17 99.00 56.00 0.00 30.99 2322.0 8 18 99.00 58.00 0.00 31.89 2353.9 8 19 93.00 55.00 0.00 29.41 2383.3 8 20 99.00 52.00 0.00 29.15 2412.4 8 21 95.00 56.00 0.00 30.29 2442.7 8 22 76.00 55.00 0.00 22.50 2465.2 8 23 86.00 45.00 0.00 22.43 2487.7 8 24 86.00 49.00 0.00 24.43 2512.1 8 25 90.00 50.00 0.00 26.24 2538.3 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 26 93.00 49.00 0.00 26.52 2564.9 8 27 91.00 57.00 0.00 29.91 2594.8 8 28 91.00 60.00 0.00 31.36 2626.1 8 29 94.00 55.00 0.00 29.62 2655.7 8 30 78.00 61.00 0.00 26.50 2682.2 8 31 86.00 48.00 0.00 23.93 2706.2 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg C1244 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 C1244 Pendleton CW1244 OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-29-16 16050% catch
 6-8-16 44395% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-16-16 59398% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-25-16 79395% egg hatch
 6-29-16 914mostly small larvae present
 7-10-16 1212mostly large larvae present
 7-20-16 14955% catch next generation
 8-2-16 189650% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-8-16 205968% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-13-16 219879% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-25-16 253895% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)