Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF26036 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Mackenzie Gala OR Lat:45.9714 Long:-118.4039 Elev:876 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 61.90 43.70 0.00 9.80 9.8 * START * 5 21 66.30 45.50 0.00 12.90 22.7 5 22 67.40 51.70 0.00 16.55 39.2 5 23 70.40 51.20 0.00 17.80 57.1 Vx 5 24 76.60 51.60 0.00 21.10 78.2 5 25 78.20 48.70 0.00 20.45 98.6 5 26 70.80 51.90 0.00 18.35 117.0 5 27 68.80 50.90 0.00 16.85 133.8 5 28 75.70 49.70 0.00 19.70 153.5 50% catch 5 29 78.70 54.80 0.00 23.75 177.2 5 30 76.30 47.40 0.00 18.85 196.1 Vx 5 31 83.70 45.90 0.00 21.80 217.9 6 1 84.40 51.30 0.00 24.85 242.7 6 2 76.60 65.20 0.00 27.90 270.6 6 3 87.40 56.30 0.00 28.56 299.2 6 4 94.00 51.70 0.00 28.05 327.3 6 5 94.80 55.20 0.00 29.88 357.1 6 6 99.80 66.20 0.00 35.61 392.8 Vx 6 7 96.70 67.00 0.00 35.59 428.3 6 8 87.30 73.00 0.00 36.75 465.1 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 78.50 58.70 0.00 25.60 490.7 Vx 6 10 69.10 54.50 0.00 18.80 509.5 6 11 72.10 50.00 0.00 18.05 527.5 Vx Vn 6 12 78.60 49.20 0.00 20.90 548.4 Vx Vn 6 13 75.00 58.40 0.00 23.70 572.1 Vx Vn 6 14 68.80 51.60 0.00 17.20 589.3 Vx Vn 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 15 67.90 46.80 0.00 14.35 603.7 Vx Vn 6 16 68.40 49.40 0.00 15.90 619.6 Vx Vn 6 17 78.60 48.80 0.00 20.70 640.3 Vx Vn 6 18 67.30 55.60 0.00 18.45 658.7 Vx 6 19 77.20 46.70 0.00 18.95 677.7 Vx Vn 6 20 81.50 50.10 0.00 22.80 700.5 Vx Vn 6 21 79.80 58.50 0.00 26.15 726.6 Vx Vn 6 22 85.90 49.40 0.00 24.59 751.2 Vx Vn 6 23 81.60 61.60 0.00 28.60 779.8 Vx Vn 6 24 73.20 54.70 0.00 20.95 800.8 Vx 95% egg hatch 6 25 81.50 51.80 0.00 23.65 824.4 Vx Vn 6 26 91.60 52.50 0.00 27.88 852.3 Vx Vn 6 27 93.60 60.40 0.00 32.09 884.4 Vx Vn 6 28 95.30 66.60 0.00 35.22 919.6 Vx Vn mostly small larvae present 6 29 94.60 65.40 0.00 34.58 954.2 Vx Vn 6 30 90.70 66.30 0.00 34.30 988.5 Vx Vn 7 1 89.00 63.30 0.00 32.47 1021.0 Vx Vn 7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 32.62 1053.6 Vx Vn 7 3 85.70 64.80 0.00 32.20 1085.8 Vx Vn 7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 26.05 1111.8 Vx Vn 7 5 78.20 55.40 0.00 23.80 1135.6 Vx Vn 7 6 80.70 59.40 0.00 27.05 1162.7 Vx Vn 7 7 81.50 60.50 0.00 28.00 1190.7 Vx Vn 7 8 77.90 60.70 0.00 26.30 1217.0 Vx mostly large larvae present 7 9 77.00 57.60 0.00 24.30 1241.3 7 10 67.80 58.00 0.00 19.90 1261.2 7 11 80.80 58.50 0.00 26.65 1287.8 Vx 7 12 79.30 56.80 0.00 25.05 1312.9 7 13 83.40 57.50 0.00 27.45 1340.3 Vx 7 14 89.80 53.70 0.00 28.00 1368.3 Vx 7 15 81.50 58.70 0.00 27.10 1395.4 Vx 7 16 83.70 58.10 0.00 27.90 1423.3 Vx 7 17 88.10 56.70 0.00 28.98 1452.3 Vx 7 18 80.80 59.60 0.00 27.20 1479.5 Vx 7 19 80.20 58.20 0.00 26.20 1505.7 Vx 5% catch next generation 7 20 87.40 62.50 0.00 31.63 1537.3 Vx 7 21 95.20 54.50 0.00 29.62 1567.0 Vx 7 22 83.00 64.60 0.00 30.80 1597.8 Vx Vn 7 23 78.70 55.40 0.00 24.05 1621.8 7 24 90.40 53.50 0.00 28.06 1649.9 Vx 7 25 96.90 59.80 0.00 32.39 1682.3 Vx 7 26 95.90 72.40 0.00 37.83 1720.1 Vx Vn 7 27 88.10 66.50 0.00 33.79 1753.9 7 28 91.10 66.60 0.00 34.52 1788.4 7 29 101.70 65.40 0.00 35.48 1823.9 Vx 7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 37.44 1861.3 Vx Vn 7 31 87.00 62.40 0.00 31.46 1892.8 Vx Vn 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 1 90.90 56.90 0.00 29.84 1922.6 Vx Vn 8 2 78.80 62.50 0.00 27.65 1950.3 Vx Vn 8 3 84.00 53.50 0.00 25.75 1976.0 Vx 8 4 93.10 55.10 0.00 29.48 2005.5 Vx Vn 8 5 94.20 55.30 0.00 29.80 2035.3 Vx 8 6 87.80 63.70 0.00 32.34 2067.6 Vx Vn 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 7 82.70 61.40 0.00 29.05 2096.7 Vx Vn 8 8 76.60 53.80 0.00 22.20 2118.9 Vx Vn 8 9 73.40 55.90 0.00 21.65 2140.5 8 10 84.40 56.00 0.00 27.20 2167.7 Vx Vn 8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 30.03 2197.8 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 12 95.70 61.30 0.00 32.88 2230.6 Vx Vn 8 13 97.80 65.40 0.00 35.03 2265.7 Vx Vn 8 14 95.60 69.90 0.00 36.72 2302.4 Vx Vn 8 15 96.00 63.90 0.00 34.11 2336.5 Vx Vn 8 16 95.70 65.00 0.00 34.56 2371.1 Vx Vn 8 17 95.10 64.00 0.00 34.02 2405.1 Vx Vn 8 18 96.70 65.80 0.00 35.06 2440.2 Vx Vn 8 19 90.60 64.00 0.00 33.18 2473.3 Vx Vn 8 20 92.00 54.50 0.00 28.94 2502.3 8 21 94.10 66.70 0.00 35.09 2537.4 Vx Vn 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 22 79.50 56.80 0.00 25.15 2562.5 Vx Vn 8 23 82.80 54.60 0.00 25.70 2588.2 Vx Vn 8 24 87.10 54.00 0.00 27.32 2615.5 Vx Vn 8 25 89.50 52.90 0.00 27.52 2643.1 Vx Vn 8 26 91.50 56.30 0.00 29.69 2672.8 Vx Vn 8 27 90.80 68.80 0.00 35.50 2708.3 Vx Vn 8 28 89.20 60.30 0.00 31.06 2739.3 Vx Vn 8 29 94.40 57.60 0.00 30.93 2770.2 Vx Vn 8 30 82.20 62.80 0.00 29.50 2799.7 Vx Vn 8 31 83.20 59.40 0.00 28.30 2828.0 Vx Vn Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF26036 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF26036 Davis Mackenzie Gala
DateDDsEvent
 5-28-16 15450% catch
 6-8-16 46595% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-14-16 58998% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-24-16 80195% egg hatch
 6-28-16 920mostly small larvae present
 7-8-16 1217mostly large larvae present
 7-19-16 15065% catch next generation
 7-31-16 189350% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-6-16 206868% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-11-16 219879% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-21-16 253795% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)