Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF25976 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Nash Gala OR Lat:45.9667 Long:-118.4167 Elev:882 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 62.30 42.10 0.00 9.28 9.3 * START *Vx Vn 5 21 64.30 48.20 0.00 13.25 22.5 Vx Vn 5 22 67.90 52.50 0.00 17.20 39.7 Vx Vn 5 23 70.30 52.00 0.00 18.15 57.9 Vx Vn 5 24 73.00 52.00 0.00 19.50 77.4 Vx Vn 5 25 78.50 51.70 0.00 22.10 99.5 Vx Vn 5 26 70.50 53.70 0.00 19.10 118.6 Vx Vn 5 27 67.50 50.80 0.00 16.15 134.7 Vx Vn 5 28 75.40 49.10 0.00 19.25 154.0 Vx Vn 50% catch 5 29 78.50 55.30 0.00 23.90 177.9 Vx Vn 5 30 76.30 49.30 0.00 19.80 197.7 Vx Vn 5 31 84.80 47.20 0.00 23.00 220.7 Vx Vn 6 1 85.30 54.00 0.00 26.64 247.3 Vx Vn 6 2 76.90 64.20 0.00 27.55 274.9 Vx Vn 6 3 86.80 59.00 0.00 29.70 304.6 Vx Vn 6 4 94.10 54.10 0.00 29.21 333.8 Vx Vn 6 5 95.50 59.00 0.00 31.78 365.6 Vx Vn 6 6 99.40 67.30 0.00 36.04 401.6 Vx Vn 6 7 98.30 69.00 0.00 36.64 438.3 Vx Vn 6 8 86.00 64.60 0.00 32.21 470.5 Vx Vn 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 78.20 58.30 0.00 25.25 495.7 Vx Vn 6 10 70.00 54.40 0.00 19.20 514.9 Vx Vn 6 11 72.10 50.00 0.00 18.05 533.0 Vx Vn 6 12 78.60 49.20 0.00 20.90 553.9 Vx Vn 6 13 74.90 58.40 0.00 23.65 577.5 Vx Vn 6 14 68.70 51.60 0.00 17.15 594.7 Vx Vn 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 15 68.10 47.90 0.00 15.00 609.7 Vx Vn 6 16 68.30 49.10 0.00 15.70 625.4 Vx Vn 6 17 80.20 48.80 0.00 21.50 646.9 Vx Vn 6 18 67.30 53.40 0.00 17.35 664.2 Vx Vn 6 19 77.20 46.70 0.00 18.95 683.2 Vx Vn 6 20 81.50 50.10 0.00 22.80 706.0 Vx Vn 6 21 79.80 57.90 0.00 25.85 731.8 Vx Vn 6 22 85.70 48.70 0.00 24.16 756.0 Vx Vn 6 23 81.50 62.30 0.00 28.90 784.9 Vx Vn 95% egg hatch 6 24 73.80 54.40 0.00 21.10 806.0 Vx Vn 6 25 81.50 51.80 0.00 23.65 829.6 Vx Vn 6 26 91.50 52.50 0.00 27.85 857.5 Vx Vn 6 27 93.50 60.40 0.00 32.07 889.5 Vx Vn 6 28 95.20 66.60 0.00 35.21 924.8 Vx Vn mostly small larvae present 6 29 94.50 65.10 0.00 34.42 959.2 Vx Vn 6 30 90.40 65.80 0.00 34.00 993.2 Vx Vn 7 1 89.00 63.20 0.00 32.42 1025.6 Vx Vn 7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 32.62 1058.2 Vx Vn 7 3 85.60 64.80 0.00 32.16 1090.4 Vx Vn 7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 26.05 1116.4 Vx Vn 7 5 78.40 55.40 0.00 23.90 1140.3 Vx Vn 7 6 81.20 59.60 0.00 27.40 1167.7 Vx Vn 7 7 81.60 60.50 0.00 28.05 1195.8 Vx Vn 7 8 77.80 61.50 0.00 26.65 1222.4 Vx Vn mostly large larvae present 7 9 78.00 58.30 0.00 25.15 1247.6 Vx Vn 7 10 69.80 59.00 0.00 21.40 1269.0 Vx Vn 7 11 80.80 59.00 0.00 26.90 1295.9 Vx Vn 7 12 79.80 59.80 0.00 26.80 1322.7 Vx Vn 7 13 83.40 56.70 0.00 27.05 1349.7 Vx Vn 7 14 89.80 57.90 0.00 30.05 1379.8 Vx Vn 7 15 81.40 57.90 0.00 26.65 1406.4 Vx Vn 7 16 83.70 59.20 0.00 28.45 1434.9 Vx Vn 7 17 88.00 58.00 0.00 29.59 1464.5 Vx Vn 7 18 80.80 61.50 0.00 28.15 1492.6 Vx Vn 5% catch next generation 7 19 79.70 60.40 0.00 27.05 1519.7 Vx Vn 7 20 87.40 61.10 0.00 30.94 1550.6 Vx Vn 7 21 95.20 57.00 0.00 30.80 1581.4 Vx Vn 7 22 83.00 64.70 0.00 30.85 1612.2 Vx Vn 7 23 84.10 59.00 0.00 28.55 1640.8 Vx Vn 7 24 90.20 54.50 0.00 28.49 1669.3 Vx Vn 7 25 96.90 59.80 0.00 32.39 1701.7 Vx Vn 7 26 95.90 72.40 0.00 37.83 1739.5 Vx Vn 7 27 95.20 69.40 0.00 36.45 1776.0 Vx Vn 7 28 99.40 68.80 0.00 36.67 1812.6 Vx Vn 7 29 101.70 70.20 0.00 37.45 1850.1 Vx Vn 7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 37.44 1887.5 Vx Vn 7 31 86.90 62.50 0.00 31.47 1919.0 Vx Vn 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 1 90.90 57.00 0.00 29.89 1948.9 Vx Vn 8 2 78.60 62.10 0.00 27.35 1976.2 Vx Vn 8 3 84.00 55.20 0.00 26.60 2002.8 Vx Vn 8 4 92.90 55.00 0.00 29.39 2032.2 Vx Vn 8 5 94.20 63.30 0.00 33.55 2065.8 Vx Vn 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 6 87.90 61.30 0.00 31.19 2097.0 Vx Vn 8 7 82.90 62.40 0.00 29.65 2126.6 Vx Vn 8 8 77.10 53.50 0.00 22.30 2148.9 Vx Vn 8 9 74.60 56.90 0.00 22.75 2171.7 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 10 84.30 56.00 0.00 27.15 2198.8 Vx Vn 8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 30.03 2228.8 Vx Vn 8 12 95.70 61.30 0.00 32.88 2261.7 Vx Vn 8 13 97.70 65.40 0.00 35.02 2296.7 Vx Vn 8 14 95.60 70.50 0.00 36.98 2333.7 Vx Vn 8 15 95.80 63.10 0.00 33.72 2367.4 Vx Vn 8 16 95.70 64.90 0.00 34.52 2401.9 Vx Vn 8 17 95.00 63.90 0.00 33.96 2435.9 Vx Vn 8 18 96.70 65.80 0.00 35.06 2471.0 Vx Vn 8 19 90.60 64.00 0.00 33.18 2504.2 Vx Vn 8 20 94.40 55.40 0.00 29.89 2534.0 Vx Vn 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 21 94.00 66.90 0.00 35.17 2569.2 Vx Vn 8 22 79.50 56.90 0.00 25.20 2594.4 Vx Vn 8 23 82.80 54.60 0.00 25.70 2620.1 Vx Vn 8 24 87.00 53.90 0.00 27.24 2647.3 Vx Vn 8 25 89.50 53.00 0.00 27.57 2674.9 Vx Vn 8 26 91.40 57.10 0.00 30.05 2705.0 Vx Vn 8 27 90.80 68.80 0.00 35.50 2740.5 Vx Vn 8 28 89.20 60.40 0.00 31.11 2771.6 Vx Vn 8 29 94.30 57.70 0.00 30.96 2802.5 Vx Vn 8 30 82.20 61.90 0.00 29.05 2831.6 Vx Vn 8 31 83.20 59.40 0.00 28.30 2859.9 Vx Vn Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF25976 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF25976 Davis Nash Gala
DateDDsEvent
 5-28-16 15450% catch
 6-8-16 47095% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-14-16 59598% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-23-16 78595% egg hatch
 6-28-16 925mostly small larvae present
 7-8-16 1222mostly large larvae present
 7-18-16 14935% catch next generation
 7-31-16 191950% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-5-16 206668% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-9-16 217279% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-20-16 253495% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)