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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF25352 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Gawith Gala OR Lat:45.9689 Long:-118.4081 Elev:879
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 62.30 42.20 0.00 9.32 9.3 * START *Vx Vn
5 21 64.30 47.50 0.00 12.90 22.2 Vx Vn
5 22 67.90 52.60 0.00 17.25 39.5 Vx Vn
5 23 70.40 52.00 0.00 18.20 57.7 Vx Vn
5 24 73.00 52.00 0.00 19.50 77.2 Vx Vn
5 25 78.50 51.70 0.00 22.10 99.3 Vx Vn
5 26 70.70 53.10 0.00 18.90 118.2 Vx Vn
5 27 67.40 50.80 0.00 16.10 134.3 Vx Vn
5 28 75.30 49.10 0.00 19.20 153.5 Vx Vn 50% catch
5 29 78.40 55.30 0.00 23.85 177.3 Vx Vn
5 30 76.30 49.30 0.00 19.80 197.1 Vx Vn
5 31 84.80 47.10 0.00 22.95 220.1 Vx Vn
6 1 85.30 54.00 0.00 26.64 246.7 Vx Vn
6 2 76.80 64.20 0.00 27.50 274.2 Vx Vn
6 3 86.40 58.90 0.00 29.52 303.7 Vx Vn
6 4 94.10 54.00 0.00 29.17 332.9 Vx Vn
6 5 95.60 59.00 0.00 31.80 364.7 Vx Vn
6 6 99.40 67.30 0.00 36.04 400.7 Vx Vn
6 7 98.30 69.00 0.00 36.64 437.4 Vx Vn
6 8 86.00 64.60 0.00 32.21 469.6 Vx Vn 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 9 78.50 58.40 0.00 25.45 495.0 Vx Vn
6 10 70.00 54.40 0.00 19.20 514.2 Vx Vn
6 11 72.10 50.00 0.00 18.05 532.3 Vx Vn
6 12 78.60 49.20 0.00 20.90 553.2 Vx Vn
6 13 74.90 58.40 0.00 23.65 576.8 Vx Vn
6 14 68.70 51.60 0.00 17.15 594.0 Vx Vn 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 15 67.90 47.20 0.00 14.55 608.5 Vx Vn
6 16 68.30 49.40 0.00 15.85 624.4 Vx Vn
6 17 78.50 48.80 0.00 20.65 645.0 Vx Vn
6 18 67.30 53.50 0.00 17.40 662.4 Vx Vn
6 19 77.20 46.70 0.00 18.95 681.4 Vx Vn
6 20 81.50 50.10 0.00 22.80 704.2 Vx Vn
6 21 79.80 58.50 0.00 26.15 730.3 Vx Vn
6 22 85.90 49.30 0.00 24.54 754.9 Vx Vn
6 23 81.50 61.80 0.00 28.65 783.5 Vx Vn 95% egg hatch
6 24 73.20 54.50 0.00 20.85 804.4 Vx Vn
6 25 81.50 51.80 0.00 23.65 828.0 Vx Vn
6 26 91.60 52.50 0.00 27.88 855.9 Vx Vn
6 27 93.50 60.40 0.00 32.07 888.0 Vx Vn
6 28 95.30 66.60 0.00 35.22 923.2 Vx Vn Mostly small larvae present
6 29 94.50 65.30 0.00 34.52 957.7 Vx Vn
6 30 90.60 65.90 0.00 34.09 991.8 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.20 0.00 32.42 1024.2 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 32.62 1056.8 Vx Vn
7 3 85.60 64.80 0.00 32.16 1089.0 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 26.05 1115.0 Vx Vn
7 5 78.20 55.40 0.00 23.80 1138.8 Vx Vn
7 6 80.70 59.50 0.00 27.10 1165.9 Vx Vn
7 7 81.60 60.50 0.00 28.05 1194.0 Vx Vn
7 8 77.80 61.50 0.00 26.65 1220.6 Vx Vn Mostly large larvae present
7 9 78.00 58.30 0.00 25.15 1245.8 Vx Vn
7 10 69.70 59.00 0.00 21.35 1267.1 Vx Vn
7 11 80.80 59.00 0.00 26.90 1294.0 Vx Vn
7 12 79.80 59.80 0.00 26.80 1320.8 Vx Vn
7 13 83.40 56.70 0.00 27.05 1347.9 Vx Vn
7 14 89.80 57.90 0.00 30.05 1377.9 Vx Vn
7 15 81.40 58.10 0.00 26.75 1404.7 Vx Vn
7 16 83.70 59.20 0.00 28.45 1433.1 Vx Vn
7 17 88.10 58.00 0.00 29.62 1462.8 Vx Vn
7 18 80.80 61.50 0.00 28.15 1490.9 Vx Vn 5% catch next generation
7 19 80.00 60.50 0.00 27.25 1518.2 Vx Vn
7 20 87.40 61.10 0.00 30.94 1549.1 Vx Vn
7 21 95.20 56.90 0.00 30.75 1579.9 Vx Vn
7 22 83.00 64.60 0.00 30.80 1610.7 Vx Vn
7 23 84.10 59.50 0.00 28.80 1639.5 Vx Vn
7 24 90.40 55.10 0.00 28.84 1668.3 Vx Vn
7 25 96.90 60.00 0.00 32.48 1700.8 Vx Vn
7 26 95.90 72.40 0.00 37.83 1738.6 Vx Vn
7 27 95.20 69.40 0.00 36.45 1775.0 Vx Vn
7 28 99.40 68.80 0.00 36.67 1811.7 Vx Vn
7 29 101.70 70.20 0.00 37.45 1849.2 Vx Vn
7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 37.44 1886.6 Vx Vn
7 31 86.90 62.40 0.00 31.42 1918.0 Vx Vn 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
8 1 90.90 57.00 0.00 29.89 1947.9 Vx Vn
8 2 78.60 62.60 0.00 27.60 1975.5 Vx Vn
8 3 84.00 54.30 0.00 26.15 2001.7 Vx Vn
8 4 92.90 55.00 0.00 29.39 2031.1 Vx Vn
8 5 94.20 62.30 0.00 33.09 2064.1 Vx Vn 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 6 87.80 63.70 0.00 32.34 2096.5 Vx Vn
8 7 82.70 61.30 0.00 29.00 2125.5 Vx Vn
8 8 76.50 53.60 0.00 22.05 2147.5 Vx Vn
8 9 74.60 57.00 0.00 22.80 2170.3 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 10 84.30 56.00 0.00 27.15 2197.5 Vx Vn
8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 30.03 2227.5 Vx Vn
8 12 95.70 61.30 0.00 32.88 2260.4 Vx Vn
8 13 97.70 65.40 0.00 35.02 2295.4 Vx Vn
8 14 95.60 69.90 0.00 36.72 2332.1 Vx Vn
8 15 96.00 63.90 0.00 34.11 2366.2 Vx Vn
8 16 95.70 64.90 0.00 34.52 2400.8 Vx Vn
8 17 95.10 63.90 0.00 33.97 2434.7 Vx Vn
8 18 96.70 65.80 0.00 35.06 2469.8 Vx Vn
8 19 90.60 64.00 0.00 33.18 2503.0 Vx Vn
8 20 94.40 55.40 0.00 29.89 2532.9 Vx Vn 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 21 94.10 66.80 0.00 35.14 2568.0 Vx Vn
8 22 79.60 56.90 0.00 25.25 2593.3 Vx Vn
8 23 82.80 54.60 0.00 25.70 2619.0 Vx Vn
8 24 87.00 53.90 0.00 27.24 2646.2 Vx Vn
8 25 89.50 53.00 0.00 27.57 2673.8 Vx Vn
8 26 91.50 56.30 0.00 29.69 2703.5 Vx Vn
8 27 90.80 68.80 0.00 35.50 2739.0 Vx Vn
8 28 89.20 60.30 0.00 31.06 2770.0 Vx Vn
8 29 94.40 57.70 0.00 30.97 2801.0 Vx Vn
8 30 82.20 62.60 0.00 29.40 2830.4 Vx Vn
8 31 83.20 59.40 0.00 28.30 2858.7 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF25352 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 MF25352 Davis Gawith Gala Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-28-16 | 153 | 50% catch |
| 6-8-16 | 470 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 6-14-16 | 594 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 6-23-16 | 784 | 95% egg hatch |
| 6-28-16 | 923 | Mostly small larvae present |
| 7-8-16 | 1221 | Mostly large larvae present |
| 7-18-16 | 1491 | 5% catch next generation |
| 7-31-16 | 1918 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 8-5-16 | 2064 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
| 8-9-16 | 2170 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 8-20-16 | 2533 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner et al 1997](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?2024411)
