Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF24644 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Fuji OR Lat45.9431 Long:-118.4389 Elev:941 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 63.10 44.20 0.00 10.65 10.7 * START * 5 21 65.90 48.70 0.05 14.30 25.0 5 22 68.80 52.70 0.00 17.75 42.7 5 23 69.90 50.30 0.00 17.10 59.8 Vx 5 24 74.40 53.30 0.00 20.85 80.7 5 25 80.10 54.40 0.00 24.25 104.9 5 26 72.20 53.30 0.00 19.75 124.7 5 27 69.10 50.10 0.00 16.60 141.2 50% catch 5 28 78.40 49.20 0.00 20.80 162.1 5 29 78.70 56.00 0.00 24.35 186.4 5 30 78.50 51.20 0.00 21.85 208.2 5 31 86.60 50.80 0.00 25.56 233.8 6 1 89.00 57.80 0.00 29.78 263.6 6 2 78.80 64.50 0.00 28.65 292.2 6 3 91.50 59.10 0.00 31.04 323.3 6 4 98.50 57.90 0.00 31.77 355.1 6 5 99.70 64.20 0.00 34.74 389.8 6 6 99.00 69.00 0.00 36.71 426.5 Vx 6 7 97.10 70.80 0.00 37.28 463.8 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 8 88.80 75.60 0.00 38.31 502.1 6 9 78.60 59.40 0.00 26.00 528.1 6 10 71.80 52.80 0.04 19.30 547.4 6 11 75.70 50.30 0.00 20.00 567.4 6 12 78.70 49.20 0.00 20.95 588.3 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 13 76.00 58.30 0.00 24.15 612.5 6 14 71.50 50.30 0.00 17.90 630.4 6 15 68.90 46.10 0.00 14.50 644.9 6 16 72.00 49.20 0.01 17.60 662.5 6 17 79.10 49.80 0.00 21.45 683.9 6 18 69.10 54.60 0.09 18.85 702.8 6 19 78.80 46.90 0.00 19.85 722.6 6 20 81.50 52.50 0.00 24.00 746.6 Vx 6 21 81.30 58.40 0.00 26.85 773.5 6 22 87.80 54.20 0.00 27.65 801.1 95% egg hatch 6 23 83.30 61.10 0.00 29.20 830.3 6 24 74.50 54.60 0.00 21.55 851.9 6 25 81.20 52.80 0.00 24.00 875.9 6 26 91.60 54.90 0.00 29.04 904.9 mostly small larvae present 6 27 92.80 60.40 0.00 31.93 936.9 Vx Vn 6 28 93.50 68.70 0.00 35.91 972.8 6 29 94.00 67.90 0.00 35.62 1008.4 Vx 6 30 90.00 65.00 0.00 33.53 1041.9 Vx Vn 7 1 90.70 64.60 0.00 33.49 1075.4 7 2 89.50 62.80 0.00 32.35 1107.8 Vx Vn 7 3 85.30 68.30 0.00 33.78 1141.6 Vx 7 4 83.10 58.10 0.00 27.60 1169.2 7 5 81.50 57.20 0.00 26.35 1195.5 7 6 80.10 59.70 0.00 26.90 1222.4 mostly large larvae present 7 7 81.40 62.20 0.00 28.80 1251.2 Vx 7 8 77.50 59.90 0.13 25.70 1276.9 Vx 7 9 77.50 57.30 0.07 24.40 1301.3 7 10 69.20 57.90 0.00 20.55 1321.9 7 11 81.50 58.90 0.00 27.20 1349.1 7 12 78.00 57.70 0.02 24.85 1373.9 7 13 83.30 57.70 0.00 27.50 1401.4 7 14 89.50 57.20 0.00 29.63 1431.0 Vx 7 15 81.00 60.20 0.00 27.60 1458.6 Vx 7 16 83.30 59.90 0.00 28.60 1487.2 Vx 5% catch next generation 7 17 87.40 60.50 0.00 30.64 1517.9 Vx 7 18 80.70 62.50 0.00 28.60 1546.5 Vx 7 19 79.40 61.70 0.00 27.55 1574.0 Vx 7 20 87.10 64.30 0.00 32.43 1606.4 Vx 7 21 94.50 60.00 0.00 32.07 1638.5 Vx 7 22 82.30 65.10 0.00 30.70 1669.2 Vx 7 23 86.50 58.20 0.00 29.20 1698.4 7 24 89.80 59.70 0.00 30.92 1729.3 Vx 7 25 96.30 65.50 0.00 34.87 1764.2 Vx 7 26 95.20 73.80 0.00 38.34 1802.6 Vx 7 27 96.30 68.80 0.00 36.33 1838.9 7 28 100.60 71.70 0.00 37.96 1876.8 7 29 101.40 70.90 0.00 37.71 1914.6 Vx 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 7 30 95.10 72.50 0.00 37.78 1952.3 7 31 86.50 62.30 0.00 31.24 1983.6 8 1 90.00 56.20 0.00 29.27 2012.8 Vx Vn 8 2 78.10 61.50 0.00 26.80 2039.6 Vx Vn 8 3 83.40 57.20 0.00 27.30 2066.9 Vx 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 4 92.30 54.80 0.00 29.15 2096.1 Vx Vn 8 5 93.90 63.60 0.00 33.64 2129.7 Vx 8 6 89.20 65.50 0.00 33.59 2163.3 8 7 82.70 63.50 0.00 30.10 2193.4 Vx 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 8 77.50 54.50 0.00 23.00 2216.4 8 9 74.00 57.50 0.00 22.75 2239.2 8 10 83.80 58.30 0.00 28.05 2267.2 Vx 8 11 89.80 60.00 0.00 31.07 2298.3 Vx 8 12 96.00 63.40 0.00 33.88 2332.2 8 13 98.00 65.80 0.00 35.23 2367.4 8 14 95.40 70.60 0.00 37.00 2404.4 Vx 8 15 95.40 62.60 0.00 33.43 2437.8 Vx Vn 8 16 96.80 67.80 0.00 35.95 2473.8 8 17 93.40 67.00 0.00 35.12 2508.9 8 18 97.30 69.00 0.00 36.53 2545.4 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 19 92.00 64.90 0.00 33.90 2579.3 8 20 95.70 65.30 0.00 34.70 2614.0 8 21 95.80 72.20 0.00 37.73 2651.8 8 22 83.50 58.10 0.00 27.80 2679.6 8 23 85.70 56.80 0.00 28.20 2707.8 8 24 86.30 61.90 0.00 30.97 2738.7 Vx 8 25 89.50 59.20 0.00 30.60 2769.3 8 26 94.50 61.00 0.00 32.54 2801.9 8 27 91.80 72.30 0.00 37.28 2839.2 8 28 88.80 66.90 0.00 34.17 2873.3 Vx 8 29 91.30 62.10 0.00 32.43 2905.8 Vx 8 30 81.70 67.20 0.00 31.45 2937.2 8 31 85.90 60.90 0.00 30.33 2967.5 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF24644 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF24644 Brown Fuji OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-27-16 14150% catch
 6-7-16 46495% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-12-16 58898% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-22-16 80195% egg hatch
 6-26-16 905mostly small larvae present
 7-6-16 1222mostly large larvae present
 7-16-16 14875% catch next generation
 7-29-16 191550% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-3-16 206768% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-7-16 219379% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-18-16 254595% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)