Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF24585 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Oliver Cherries OR Lat45.9717 Long:-118.3739 Elev:882 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 61.40 40.90 0.00 8.44 8.4 * START * 5 21 63.60 44.40 0.01 11.00 19.4 5 22 68.50 50.30 0.00 16.40 35.8 5 23 70.80 50.70 0.00 17.75 53.6 5 24 74.00 49.50 0.00 18.75 72.3 5 25 76.90 47.60 0.00 19.25 91.6 5 26 70.80 50.80 0.00 17.80 109.4 5 27 69.80 50.90 0.00 17.35 126.7 5 28 76.10 48.20 0.00 19.15 145.9 50% catch 5 29 79.60 52.60 0.00 23.10 169.0 5 30 76.30 48.20 0.00 19.25 188.2 Vx 5 31 84.80 40.80 0.00 20.01 208.2 Vx 6 1 85.20 49.50 0.00 24.34 232.6 6 2 78.10 60.80 0.00 26.45 259.0 6 3 86.40 57.20 0.00 28.67 287.7 6 4 89.00 50.30 0.00 26.10 313.8 6 5 91.20 54.30 0.00 28.65 342.5 6 6 99.20 58.30 0.00 32.06 374.5 Vx 6 7 94.00 64.20 0.00 33.93 408.5 6 8 87.70 66.90 0.00 33.88 442.3 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 77.20 56.40 0.00 23.80 466.1 6 10 67.70 53.30 0.01 17.50 483.6 6 11 72.00 46.10 0.00 16.05 499.7 6 12 77.30 44.50 0.00 17.90 517.6 6 13 74.90 53.00 0.00 20.95 538.5 Vx 6 14 69.30 50.10 0.00 16.70 555.2 6 15 69.30 46.50 0.00 14.90 570.1 6 16 69.60 45.30 0.01 14.45 584.6 6 17 79.10 42.50 0.00 17.82 602.4 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 18 66.80 52.50 0.06 16.65 619.1 6 19 76.30 42.50 0.00 16.43 635.5 6 20 80.20 46.80 0.00 20.50 656.0 6 21 80.50 58.70 0.00 26.60 682.6 6 22 87.20 45.70 0.00 23.23 705.8 6 23 81.30 59.80 0.00 27.55 733.4 6 24 75.60 54.00 0.02 21.80 755.2 6 25 81.50 48.10 0.00 21.80 777.0 6 26 87.70 46.80 0.00 23.95 800.9 95% egg hatch 6 27 93.50 60.50 0.00 32.12 833.0 Vx Vn 6 28 91.20 59.30 0.00 31.07 864.1 6 29 94.60 63.50 0.00 33.71 897.8 Vx 6 30 92.00 66.20 0.00 34.51 932.3 Vx Vn mostly small larvae present 7 1 89.00 63.10 0.00 32.37 964.7 Vx Vn 7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 32.62 997.3 Vx Vn 7 3 85.60 64.80 0.00 32.16 1029.5 Vx Vn 7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 26.05 1055.5 Vx Vn 7 5 78.70 52.30 0.00 22.50 1078.0 7 6 81.40 60.50 0.00 27.95 1106.0 7 7 81.50 60.50 0.00 28.00 1134.0 Vx Vn 7 8 77.80 60.30 0.05 26.05 1160.0 Vx 7 9 77.60 57.50 0.06 24.55 1184.6 7 10 69.90 57.20 0.00 20.55 1205.1 mostly large larvae present 7 11 80.80 59.00 0.00 26.90 1232.0 Vx Vn 7 12 80.20 56.30 0.02 25.25 1257.3 7 13 84.30 55.40 0.00 26.85 1284.1 7 14 89.80 53.00 0.00 27.65 1311.8 Vx 7 15 81.40 57.00 0.00 26.20 1338.0 Vx 7 16 83.70 58.00 0.00 27.85 1365.8 Vx 7 17 88.10 55.40 0.00 28.34 1394.2 Vx 7 18 80.80 59.10 0.00 26.95 1421.1 Vx 7 19 82.90 56.80 0.00 26.85 1448.0 7 20 87.70 58.90 0.00 29.95 1477.9 Vx 7 21 95.20 52.10 0.00 28.49 1506.4 Vx 5% catch next generation 7 22 83.00 64.50 0.00 30.75 1537.1 Vx Vn 7 23 84.10 55.90 0.00 27.00 1564.1 Vx 7 24 90.20 51.90 0.00 27.23 1591.4 Vx 7 25 96.80 58.40 0.00 31.73 1623.1 Vx 7 26 95.90 69.30 0.00 36.50 1659.6 Vx 7 27 95.20 69.40 0.00 36.45 1696.0 Vx Vn 7 28 99.40 63.40 0.00 34.36 1730.4 Vx 7 29 101.70 63.60 0.00 34.72 1765.1 Vx 7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 37.44 1802.6 Vx Vn 7 31 86.90 62.40 0.00 31.42 1834.0 Vx Vn 8 1 90.90 57.00 0.00 29.89 1863.9 Vx Vn 8 2 78.70 57.30 0.00 25.00 1888.9 Vx 8 3 84.00 54.10 0.00 26.05 1914.9 Vx 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 4 90.20 50.00 0.00 26.30 1941.2 8 5 93.70 53.50 0.00 28.84 1970.1 Vx 8 6 85.60 63.50 0.00 31.51 2001.6 8 7 83.10 60.50 0.00 28.80 2030.4 Vx 8 8 77.20 51.30 0.00 21.25 2051.6 Vx 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 9 72.80 54.70 0.00 20.75 2072.4 8 10 84.30 53.90 0.00 26.10 2098.5 Vx 8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 30.03 2128.5 Vx Vn 8 12 95.70 61.50 0.00 32.97 2161.5 Vx Vn 8 13 97.20 65.20 0.00 34.86 2196.3 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 14 95.60 69.90 0.00 36.72 2233.0 Vx Vn 8 15 95.90 63.20 0.00 33.78 2266.8 Vx Vn 8 16 95.70 59.30 0.00 31.96 2298.8 Vx 8 17 91.20 59.40 0.00 31.11 2329.9 8 18 96.70 58.80 0.00 31.90 2361.8 Vx 8 19 88.60 57.20 0.00 29.38 2391.2 8 20 91.10 52.50 0.00 27.75 2418.9 8 21 93.10 52.40 0.00 28.18 2447.1 8 22 78.00 52.80 0.00 22.40 2469.5 8 23 82.00 50.10 0.00 23.05 2492.6 8 24 87.10 52.40 0.00 26.53 2519.1 Vx 8 25 88.40 50.20 0.00 25.87 2545.0 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 26 91.90 49.40 0.00 26.45 2571.4 8 27 91.80 60.70 0.00 31.87 2603.3 8 28 89.20 63.30 0.00 32.52 2635.8 Vx 8 29 94.40 54.60 0.00 29.51 2665.3 Vx 8 30 82.20 62.40 0.00 29.30 2694.6 8 31 85.00 55.50 0.00 27.25 2721.9 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF24585 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF24585 Oliver Cherries OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-28-16 14650% catch
 6-8-16 44295% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-17-16 60298% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-26-16 80195% egg hatch
 6-30-16 932mostly small larvae present
 7-10-16 1205mostly large larvae present
 7-21-16 15065% catch next generation
 8-3-16 191550% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-8-16 205268% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-13-16 219679% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-25-16 254595% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)