Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF24513 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burkes Wondra OR Lat45.9542 Long:-118.4481 Elev:839 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 62.30 44.80 0.00 10.55 10.5 * START * 5 21 64.50 47.60 0.00 13.05 23.6 5 22 69.70 53.70 0.00 18.70 42.3 5 23 70.70 51.40 0.00 18.05 60.3 Vx 5 24 73.80 53.00 0.00 20.40 80.8 5 25 78.10 53.00 0.00 22.55 103.3 5 26 72.50 55.50 0.00 21.00 124.3 5 27 68.30 51.40 0.00 16.85 141.1 50% catch 5 28 75.60 50.10 0.00 19.85 161.0 5 29 79.70 55.80 0.00 24.75 185.7 5 30 76.30 50.00 0.00 20.15 205.9 5 31 85.40 45.60 0.00 22.48 228.4 6 1 86.10 52.70 0.00 26.32 254.7 6 2 78.90 65.60 0.00 29.25 283.9 6 3 87.00 59.90 0.00 30.22 314.2 6 4 94.30 53.20 0.00 28.83 343.0 6 5 95.80 55.60 0.00 30.25 373.2 6 6 100.00 65.00 0.00 35.12 408.4 Vx 6 7 100.00 68.10 0.00 36.44 444.8 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 8 89.70 70.30 0.00 35.99 480.8 6 9 81.00 61.00 0.00 28.00 508.8 6 10 69.10 54.40 0.00 18.75 527.6 6 11 72.20 51.20 0.00 18.70 546.3 6 12 79.90 49.50 0.00 21.70 568.0 6 13 77.10 56.60 0.00 23.85 591.8 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 14 69.60 52.40 0.00 18.00 609.8 6 15 68.60 48.30 0.00 15.45 625.3 6 16 69.70 47.30 0.00 15.50 640.8 6 17 79.10 47.00 0.00 20.05 660.8 6 18 67.20 55.10 0.00 18.15 679.0 6 19 78.20 45.00 0.00 18.60 697.6 6 20 81.70 47.90 0.00 21.80 719.4 Vx 6 21 79.70 58.10 0.00 25.90 745.3 6 22 85.70 50.50 0.00 25.06 770.3 Vx 6 23 80.10 62.30 0.00 28.20 798.5 95% egg hatch 6 24 74.80 55.30 0.00 22.05 820.6 6 25 81.50 53.50 0.00 24.50 845.1 Vx 6 26 90.80 51.20 0.00 27.04 872.1 6 27 93.20 58.30 0.00 31.02 903.1 Vx mostly small larvae present 6 28 95.00 68.30 0.00 35.94 939.1 6 29 94.40 64.90 0.00 34.32 973.4 Vx Vn 6 30 90.50 65.60 0.00 33.93 1007.3 Vx Vn 7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 32.57 1039.9 Vx Vn 7 2 89.80 62.80 0.00 32.42 1072.3 Vx Vn 7 3 85.60 65.00 0.00 32.26 1104.6 Vx Vn 7 4 80.50 57.70 0.00 26.10 1130.7 Vx Vn 7 5 80.30 58.40 0.00 26.35 1157.0 7 6 80.60 60.50 0.00 27.55 1184.6 Vx 7 7 81.70 60.70 0.00 28.20 1212.8 Vx Vn mostly large larvae present 7 8 77.60 61.10 0.00 26.35 1239.1 Vx 7 9 78.00 57.80 0.00 24.90 1264.0 Vx 7 10 69.70 58.90 0.00 21.30 1285.3 7 11 78.50 59.70 0.00 26.10 1311.4 7 12 77.20 58.50 0.00 24.85 1336.3 7 13 83.20 59.70 0.00 28.45 1364.7 Vx 7 14 90.00 53.50 0.00 27.95 1392.7 Vx 7 15 81.40 59.30 0.00 27.35 1420.0 Vx 7 16 83.60 60.60 0.00 29.10 1449.1 Vx 7 17 88.10 60.00 0.00 30.61 1479.7 Vx 7 18 80.80 62.40 0.00 28.60 1508.3 Vx 5% catch next generation 7 19 79.50 61.60 0.00 27.55 1535.9 Vx 7 20 87.70 63.10 0.00 32.02 1567.9 Vx 7 21 95.00 56.50 0.00 30.53 1598.4 Vx 7 22 82.60 64.30 0.00 30.45 1628.9 Vx Vn 7 23 85.20 58.50 0.00 28.84 1657.7 7 24 90.20 55.10 0.00 28.79 1686.5 Vx 7 25 96.70 60.10 0.00 32.49 1719.0 Vx 7 26 95.60 72.90 0.00 38.00 1757.0 Vx 7 27 96.60 70.00 0.00 36.88 1793.9 7 28 99.00 66.40 0.00 35.61 1829.5 7 29 101.90 67.00 0.00 36.17 1865.6 Vx 7 30 94.80 76.30 0.00 39.33 1905.0 Vx 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 7 31 87.20 62.60 0.00 31.62 1936.6 Vx Vn 8 1 90.60 55.40 0.00 29.04 1965.6 Vx Vn 8 2 78.40 61.10 0.00 26.75 1992.4 Vx Vn 8 3 84.10 56.50 0.00 27.30 2019.7 Vx 8 4 92.90 54.20 0.00 29.00 2048.7 Vx Vn 8 5 94.40 54.70 0.00 29.56 2078.2 Vx 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 6 89.90 64.30 0.00 33.17 2111.4 8 7 83.00 64.20 0.00 30.60 2142.0 Vx 8 8 78.50 55.00 0.00 23.75 2165.8 8 9 74.50 56.70 0.00 22.60 2188.4 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 10 84.00 58.00 0.00 28.00 2216.4 Vx 8 11 90.40 57.60 0.00 30.05 2246.4 Vx Vn 8 12 95.90 61.30 0.00 32.91 2279.3 Vx Vn 8 13 98.00 65.50 0.00 35.10 2314.4 Vx Vn 8 14 95.80 70.70 0.00 37.09 2351.5 Vx Vn 8 15 95.90 62.40 0.00 33.41 2384.9 Vx Vn 8 16 98.80 63.80 0.00 34.45 2419.4 8 17 95.00 65.40 0.00 34.64 2454.0 Vx 8 18 97.50 62.60 0.00 33.75 2487.8 8 19 94.10 59.10 0.00 31.57 2519.3 8 20 99.50 55.80 0.00 30.97 2550.3 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 21 98.30 66.40 0.00 35.53 2585.8 8 22 83.80 56.70 0.00 27.25 2613.1 8 23 86.60 51.20 0.00 25.75 2638.8 8 24 86.90 52.80 0.00 26.66 2665.5 Vx 8 25 95.90 50.70 0.00 27.97 2693.5 8 26 94.00 50.00 0.00 27.23 2720.7 8 27 92.80 71.70 0.00 37.15 2757.9 8 28 95.70 59.30 0.00 31.96 2789.8 Vn 8 29 91.80 57.30 0.00 30.24 2820.1 Vx 8 30 85.10 64.10 0.00 31.60 2851.7 8 31 91.90 59.60 0.00 31.37 2883.0 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF24513 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF24513 Burkes Wondra OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-27-16 14150% catch
 6-7-16 44595% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-13-16 59298% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-23-16 79995% egg hatch
 6-27-16 903mostly small larvae present
 7-7-16 1213mostly large larvae present
 7-18-16 15085% catch next generation
 7-30-16 190550% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-5-16 207868% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-9-16 218879% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-20-16 255095% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)