Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF24220 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Home OR Lat45.9581 Long:-118.4206 Elev:898 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 62.50 43.00 0.00 9.75 9.8 * START * 5 21 62.20 45.30 0.05 10.75 20.5 5 22 67.20 52.10 0.00 16.65 37.2 5 23 70.20 50.70 0.00 17.45 54.6 Vx 5 24 74.60 52.00 0.00 20.30 74.9 5 25 71.40 49.50 0.39 17.45 92.4 5 26 69.00 52.70 0.00 17.85 110.2 5 27 66.50 50.30 0.00 15.40 125.6 5 28 74.30 48.40 0.00 18.35 144.0 50% catch 5 29 77.40 53.80 0.00 22.60 166.6 5 30 75.50 49.20 0.00 19.35 185.9 5 31 84.80 47.80 0.00 23.30 209.2 6 1 86.50 51.10 0.00 25.67 234.9 6 2 71.70 58.10 0.39 21.90 256.8 6 3 84.30 57.10 0.00 27.70 284.5 6 4 91.20 53.00 0.00 28.02 312.5 6 5 91.60 55.60 0.00 29.38 341.9 6 6 99.20 64.50 0.40 34.81 376.7 Vx 6 7 96.20 67.70 0.00 35.83 412.5 6 8 87.90 70.70 0.00 35.79 448.3 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 77.50 58.10 0.00 24.80 473.1 6 10 67.50 52.80 0.05 17.15 490.2 6 11 71.00 50.10 0.00 17.55 507.8 6 12 76.40 45.00 0.30 17.70 525.5 6 13 74.10 56.20 0.00 22.15 547.6 6 14 68.00 50.70 0.00 16.35 564.0 6 15 68.00 46.70 0.00 14.35 578.3 6 16 62.20 46.10 0.41 11.15 589.5 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 17 76.20 46.10 0.02 18.15 607.6 6 18 65.80 53.90 0.11 16.85 624.5 6 19 76.40 46.40 0.00 18.40 642.9 6 20 81.40 47.70 0.00 21.55 664.4 Vx 6 21 79.10 57.00 0.00 25.05 689.5 6 22 84.20 48.40 0.00 23.30 712.8 6 23 71.20 55.30 0.38 20.25 733.0 6 24 71.20 53.40 0.01 19.30 752.3 6 25 78.30 50.70 0.00 21.50 773.8 6 26 87.20 50.60 0.00 25.67 799.5 95% egg hatch 6 27 93.40 54.90 0.42 29.45 829.0 Vx 6 28 90.60 64.20 0.00 33.28 862.2 6 29 94.40 64.20 0.00 34.00 896.2 Vx 6 30 90.40 65.30 0.00 33.76 930.0 Vx Vn mostly small larvae present 7 1 86.00 55.20 0.41 27.52 957.5 7 2 89.80 63.50 0.00 32.76 990.3 Vx 7 3 85.50 66.90 0.00 33.17 1023.5 Vx 7 4 79.90 54.50 0.00 24.20 1047.7 7 5 71.60 53.60 0.56 19.60 1067.3 7 6 78.30 59.00 0.00 25.65 1092.9 7 7 81.50 58.70 0.00 27.10 1120.0 Vx 7 8 77.80 60.20 0.16 26.00 1146.0 Vx 7 9 77.90 56.80 0.07 24.35 1170.4 Vx 7 10 66.50 57.90 0.00 19.20 1189.6 7 11 77.70 57.80 0.00 24.75 1214.3 mostly large larvae present 7 12 76.40 57.20 0.02 23.80 1238.1 7 13 83.30 57.00 0.00 27.15 1265.3 Vx 7 14 89.70 52.60 0.31 27.43 1292.7 Vx 7 15 81.30 57.50 0.00 26.40 1319.1 Vx 7 16 83.60 58.30 0.00 27.95 1347.0 Vx 7 17 87.90 56.20 0.00 28.67 1375.7 Vx 7 18 80.70 58.10 0.08 26.40 1402.1 Vx 7 19 79.50 59.30 0.00 26.40 1428.5 Vx 7 20 87.30 60.50 0.00 30.61 1459.1 Vx 7 21 94.90 56.40 0.00 30.46 1489.6 Vx 5% catch next generation 7 22 82.90 64.70 0.00 30.80 1520.4 Vx Vn 7 23 77.60 54.40 0.00 23.00 1543.4 7 24 90.00 53.00 0.00 27.71 1571.1 Vx 7 25 96.60 58.20 0.00 31.60 1602.7 Vx 7 26 95.30 72.60 0.00 37.85 1640.5 Vx Vn 7 27 90.60 67.70 0.00 34.94 1675.5 7 28 83.20 61.80 0.00 29.50 1705.0 7 29 101.60 64.90 0.00 35.26 1740.2 Vx 7 30 94.60 71.70 0.00 37.38 1777.6 Vx Vn 7 31 86.80 62.50 0.00 31.44 1809.1 Vx Vn 8 1 90.50 56.40 0.00 29.50 1838.6 Vx Vn 8 2 78.40 61.40 0.00 26.90 1865.5 Vx Vn 8 3 83.70 52.00 0.00 24.85 1890.3 Vx 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 4 92.70 52.60 0.00 28.19 1918.5 Vx Vn 8 5 94.10 55.60 0.00 29.92 1948.4 Vx 8 6 85.30 58.10 0.00 28.69 1977.1 8 7 82.80 58.10 0.00 27.45 2004.6 Vx 8 8 67.80 51.30 0.54 16.55 2021.1 8 9 70.50 55.60 0.00 20.05 2041.2 8 10 84.20 55.90 0.00 27.05 2068.2 Vx 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 11 90.20 57.50 0.00 29.96 2098.2 Vx Vn 8 12 95.60 61.30 0.00 32.86 2131.0 Vx Vn 8 13 97.60 65.40 0.00 35.00 2166.0 Vx Vn 8 14 95.50 70.40 0.00 36.93 2203.0 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 15 95.60 62.50 0.00 33.41 2236.4 Vx Vn 8 16 95.60 64.90 0.00 34.50 2270.9 Vx Vn 8 17 95.00 64.20 0.00 34.09 2305.0 Vx Vn 8 18 96.60 65.90 0.00 35.09 2340.1 Vx Vn 8 19 85.40 57.10 0.00 28.23 2368.3 8 20 83.80 54.70 0.24 26.25 2394.5 8 21 84.20 62.70 0.17 30.45 2425.0 8 22 76.20 55.00 0.00 22.60 2447.6 8 23 78.90 50.50 0.00 21.70 2469.3 8 24 86.70 53.40 0.00 26.89 2496.2 Vx 8 25 81.10 50.60 0.19 22.85 2519.0 8 26 81.20 50.20 0.26 22.70 2541.7 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 27 84.60 67.00 0.07 32.80 2574.5 8 28 89.00 64.20 0.16 32.91 2607.4 Vx 8 29 91.80 55.50 0.00 29.38 2636.8 Vx 8 30 78.00 60.20 0.00 26.10 2662.9 8 31 79.90 56.00 0.00 24.95 2687.9 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF24220 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF24220 Brown Home OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-28-16 14450% catch
 6-8-16 44895% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-16-16 58998% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-26-16 80095% egg hatch
 6-30-16 930mostly small larvae present
 7-11-16 1214mostly large larvae present
 7-21-16 14905% catch next generation
 8-3-16 189050% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-10-16 206868% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-14-16 220379% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-26-16 254295% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)