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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Brunner et al 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20
Ending date: 8 31
Model validation status: not fully tested
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch
2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch
5. 900 DD after 1st catch: Mostly small larvae present
6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: Mostly large larvae present
7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation
8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF23325 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown Bixby OR Lat45.9681 Long:-118.4325 Elev:846
mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 20 63.10 43.30 0.00 10.20 10.2 * START *
5 21 64.50 46.60 0.00 12.55 22.8
5 22 69.00 53.30 0.00 18.15 40.9
5 23 70.60 51.30 0.00 17.95 58.8 Vx
5 24 74.70 51.50 0.00 20.10 78.9
5 25 82.10 51.20 0.00 23.65 102.6
5 26 71.70 53.80 0.00 19.75 122.3
5 27 67.90 51.00 0.00 16.45 138.8
5 28 74.00 48.70 0.00 18.35 157.2 50% catch
5 29 78.80 54.90 0.00 23.85 181.0
5 30 78.40 46.70 0.00 19.55 200.6
5 31 85.50 42.00 0.00 20.79 221.3
6 1 83.00 49.90 0.00 23.45 244.8
6 2 76.80 65.00 0.00 27.90 272.7
6 3 86.60 56.80 0.00 28.54 301.2
6 4 95.20 51.50 0.00 28.21 329.4
6 5 94.90 54.10 0.00 29.38 358.8
6 6 99.90 60.30 0.00 33.05 391.9 Vx
6 7 91.80 63.30 0.00 33.10 425.0
6 8 85.60 67.30 0.00 33.40 458.4 95% catch, 1% egg hatch
6 9 77.90 59.00 0.00 25.45 483.8
6 10 68.70 53.80 0.00 18.25 502.1
6 11 70.70 49.20 0.00 16.95 519.0
6 12 76.80 46.50 0.00 18.65 537.7
6 13 73.30 52.10 0.00 19.70 557.4
6 14 70.40 51.70 0.00 18.05 575.4
6 15 69.80 47.20 0.00 15.50 590.9 98% catch, 50% egg hatch
6 16 72.00 45.90 0.00 15.95 606.9
6 17 76.80 45.40 0.00 18.10 625.0
6 18 68.80 55.50 0.00 19.15 644.1
6 19 78.30 42.70 0.00 17.51 661.6
6 20 81.60 47.60 0.00 21.60 683.2 Vx
6 21 80.50 56.80 0.00 25.65 708.9
6 22 85.00 47.40 0.00 23.20 732.1
6 23 81.10 60.50 0.00 27.80 759.9
6 24 70.70 54.10 0.01 19.40 779.3
6 25 79.70 51.30 0.00 22.50 801.8 95% egg hatch
6 26 86.20 48.60 0.00 24.31 826.1
6 27 93.70 60.50 0.00 32.16 858.3 Vx Vn
6 28 90.70 62.10 0.00 32.30 890.5
6 29 94.60 60.40 0.00 32.27 922.8 Vx Mostly small larvae present
6 30 90.50 66.00 0.00 34.12 956.9 Vx Vn
7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 32.57 989.5 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.00 0.00 32.57 1022.1 Vx Vn
7 3 85.80 64.90 0.00 32.28 1054.4 Vx Vn
7 4 81.50 53.00 0.00 24.25 1078.6
7 5 79.30 53.20 0.00 23.25 1101.9
7 6 79.00 58.80 0.00 25.90 1127.8
7 7 81.70 54.50 0.00 25.10 1152.9 Vx
7 8 78.00 60.50 0.02 26.25 1179.1 Vx
7 9 77.00 57.70 0.00 24.35 1203.5 Mostly large larvae present
7 10 68.00 58.90 0.00 20.45 1223.9
7 11 81.00 59.60 0.00 27.30 1251.2 Vx
7 12 76.80 56.70 0.00 23.75 1275.0
7 13 83.50 58.10 0.00 27.80 1302.8 Vx
7 14 89.90 53.30 0.00 27.83 1330.6 Vx
7 15 81.60 55.80 0.00 25.70 1356.3 Vx
7 16 83.90 59.70 0.00 28.80 1385.1 Vx
7 17 88.30 54.60 0.00 28.01 1413.1 Vx
7 18 81.00 59.80 0.00 27.40 1440.5 Vx
7 19 79.50 59.70 0.00 26.60 1467.1 Vx
7 20 87.60 59.10 0.00 30.01 1497.1 Vx 5% catch next generation
7 21 95.30 54.60 0.00 29.69 1526.8 Vx
7 22 83.00 64.90 0.00 30.95 1557.7 Vx Vn
7 23 85.70 54.70 0.00 27.16 1584.9
7 24 90.30 52.40 0.00 27.50 1612.4 Vx
7 25 96.80 55.60 0.00 30.43 1642.8 Vx
7 26 96.00 72.60 0.00 37.92 1680.8 Vx Vn
7 27 96.00 65.50 0.00 34.83 1715.6
7 28 97.00 62.60 0.00 33.67 1749.3
7 29 101.90 63.30 0.00 34.61 1783.9 Vx
7 30 94.80 70.40 0.00 36.84 1820.7 Vx
7 31 87.10 65.00 0.00 32.77 1853.5 Vx
8 1 91.00 56.70 0.00 29.77 1883.2 Vx Vn
8 2 78.60 61.80 0.00 27.20 1910.4 Vx Vn 50% catch, 1% egg hatch
8 3 84.20 53.40 0.00 25.80 1936.2 Vx
8 4 93.00 50.80 0.00 27.39 1963.6 Vx Vn
8 5 94.30 52.50 0.00 28.49 1992.1 Vx
8 6 82.70 57.70 0.00 27.20 2019.3
8 7 83.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 2047.3 Vx
8 8 75.00 53.40 0.00 21.20 2068.5 68% catch, 25% egg hatch
8 9 72.40 55.90 0.00 21.15 2089.7
8 10 84.60 56.20 0.00 27.40 2117.1 Vx
8 11 90.50 57.60 0.00 30.08 2147.2 Vx Vn
8 12 95.90 61.30 0.00 32.91 2180.1 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch
8 13 97.90 65.50 0.00 35.09 2215.2 Vx Vn
8 14 95.80 70.60 0.00 37.05 2252.2 Vx Vn
8 15 96.00 63.00 0.00 33.70 2285.9 Vx Vn
8 16 91.40 60.80 0.00 31.83 2317.7
8 17 91.80 60.70 0.00 31.87 2349.6
8 18 96.90 58.70 0.00 31.88 2381.5 Vx
8 19 88.60 55.60 0.00 28.59 2410.1
8 20 90.10 51.00 0.00 26.76 2436.8
8 21 92.20 59.20 0.00 31.24 2468.1
8 22 78.90 53.70 0.00 23.30 2491.4
8 23 82.30 48.40 0.00 22.35 2513.7
8 24 87.00 50.80 0.00 25.70 2539.4 Vx 95% catch, 95% egg hatch
8 25 84.90 49.90 0.00 24.40 2563.8
8 26 88.00 48.50 0.00 24.90 2588.7
8 27 88.10 66.80 0.00 33.94 2622.7
8 28 89.40 65.80 0.00 33.78 2656.4 Vx
8 29 92.10 54.40 0.00 28.92 2685.4 Vx
8 30 79.60 59.40 0.00 26.50 2711.9
8 31 81.50 54.10 0.00 24.80 2736.7
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF23325 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner et al 1997Location: 2016 MF23325 Brown Bixby OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-28-16 | 157 | 50% catch |
| 6-8-16 | 458 | 95% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 6-15-16 | 591 | 98% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 6-25-16 | 802 | 95% egg hatch |
| 6-29-16 | 923 | Mostly small larvae present |
| 7-9-16 | 1203 | Mostly large larvae present |
| 7-20-16 | 1497 | 5% catch next generation |
| 8-2-16 | 1910 | 50% catch, 1% egg hatch |
| 8-8-16 | 2069 | 68% catch, 25% egg hatch |
| 8-12-16 | 2180 | 79% catch, 50% egg hatch |
| 8-24-16 | 2539 | 95% catch, 95% egg hatch |
![degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner et al 1997](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?1606075)
