Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF23241 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Brown McClellan OR Lat45.9528 Long:-118.4678 Elev:843 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 62.00 43.10 0.00 9.55 9.5 * START * 5 21 64.90 47.00 0.00 12.95 22.5 5 22 67.80 52.80 0.00 17.30 39.8 5 23 70.40 50.00 0.00 17.20 57.0 Vx 5 24 75.40 53.10 0.00 21.25 78.2 5 25 79.80 52.80 0.00 23.30 101.5 5 26 72.40 54.50 0.00 20.45 122.0 5 27 67.80 50.00 0.00 15.90 137.9 5 28 74.40 47.40 0.00 17.90 155.8 50% catch 5 29 77.00 55.10 0.00 23.05 178.9 5 30 76.60 49.30 0.00 19.95 198.8 5 31 84.20 45.40 0.00 21.80 220.6 6 1 82.70 52.00 0.00 24.35 245.0 6 2 76.10 64.00 0.00 27.05 272.0 6 3 87.20 56.80 0.00 28.75 300.7 6 4 94.10 52.90 0.00 28.64 329.4 6 5 93.70 57.30 0.00 30.65 360.0 6 6 99.90 32.00 0.00 21.83 381.9 Vx 6 7 95.30 66.00 0.00 34.95 416.8 6 8 83.60 65.80 0.00 31.70 448.5 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 77.50 58.90 0.00 25.20 473.7 6 10 67.00 53.20 0.00 17.10 490.8 6 11 71.60 21.20 0.00 9.79 500.6 6 12 77.50 47.50 0.00 19.50 520.1 6 13 72.50 53.70 0.00 20.10 540.2 6 14 68.70 50.90 0.00 16.80 557.0 6 15 65.70 46.60 0.00 13.15 570.2 6 16 69.00 47.60 0.00 15.30 585.5 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 17 77.90 32.00 0.00 14.29 599.8 6 18 67.20 55.00 0.00 18.10 617.9 6 19 73.90 45.50 0.00 16.70 634.6 6 20 81.90 48.80 0.00 22.35 656.9 Vx 6 21 80.80 58.70 0.00 26.75 683.7 6 22 85.40 48.90 0.00 24.13 707.8 Vx Vn 6 23 81.70 62.40 0.00 29.05 736.8 Vx Vn 6 24 73.00 54.50 0.00 20.75 757.6 Vx Vn 6 25 81.60 52.20 0.00 23.90 781.5 Vx Vn 95% egg hatch 6 26 91.00 52.20 0.00 27.58 809.1 Vx Vn 6 27 93.20 61.00 0.00 32.29 841.4 Vx Vn 6 28 94.90 67.70 0.00 35.66 877.0 Vx Vn 6 29 94.30 64.70 0.00 34.21 911.2 Vx Vn mostly small larvae present 6 30 90.50 65.60 0.00 33.93 945.2 Vx Vn 7 1 89.00 63.50 0.00 32.57 977.7 Vx Vn 7 2 89.80 62.60 0.00 32.33 1010.1 Vx Vn 7 3 85.60 64.90 0.00 32.21 1042.3 Vx Vn 7 4 80.50 57.70 0.00 26.10 1068.4 Vx Vn 7 5 78.50 55.80 0.00 24.15 1092.5 Vx Vn 7 6 80.70 59.40 0.00 27.05 1119.6 Vx Vn 7 7 81.70 60.70 0.00 28.20 1147.8 Vx Vn 7 8 77.60 61.30 0.00 26.45 1174.2 Vx Vn 7 9 77.90 58.70 0.00 25.30 1199.5 Vx Vn 7 10 70.30 59.40 0.00 21.85 1221.4 Vx Vn mostly large larvae present 7 11 81.00 59.30 0.00 27.15 1248.5 Vx Vn 7 12 80.00 59.90 0.00 26.95 1275.5 Vx Vn 7 13 83.30 56.20 0.00 26.75 1302.2 Vx Vn 7 14 90.00 58.00 0.00 30.15 1332.4 Vx Vn 7 15 81.50 57.40 0.00 26.45 1358.8 Vx Vn 7 16 83.60 59.10 0.00 28.35 1387.2 Vx Vn 7 17 88.70 56.60 0.00 29.11 1416.3 Vx Vn 7 18 80.80 61.50 0.00 28.15 1444.4 Vx Vn 7 19 79.60 60.00 0.00 26.80 1471.2 Vx Vn 7 20 87.70 60.20 0.00 30.59 1501.8 Vx Vn 5% catch next generation 7 21 95.00 55.70 0.00 30.15 1532.0 Vx Vn 7 22 82.70 64.20 0.00 30.45 1562.4 Vx Vn 7 23 84.40 59.40 0.00 28.90 1591.3 Vx Vn 7 24 90.00 53.40 0.00 27.90 1619.2 Vx Vn 7 25 96.40 58.60 0.00 31.75 1651.0 Vx Vn 7 26 96.10 72.30 0.00 37.80 1688.8 Vx Vn 7 27 95.50 69.60 0.00 36.58 1725.4 Vx Vn 7 28 99.30 69.20 0.00 36.83 1762.2 Vx Vn 7 29 101.90 70.70 0.00 37.67 1799.8 Vx Vn 7 30 94.70 72.40 0.00 37.70 1837.5 Vx Vn 7 31 87.10 62.60 0.00 31.59 1869.1 Vx Vn 8 1 90.50 55.20 0.00 28.91 1898.0 Vx Vn 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 2 78.20 60.60 0.00 26.40 1924.4 Vx Vn 8 3 84.00 54.80 0.00 26.40 1950.8 Vx Vn 8 4 92.70 53.90 0.00 28.81 1979.7 Vx Vn 8 5 94.40 63.40 0.00 33.63 2013.3 Vx Vn 8 6 89.00 60.70 0.00 31.20 2044.5 Vx Vn 8 7 83.00 62.10 0.00 29.55 2074.0 Vx Vn 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 8 76.90 54.20 0.00 22.55 2096.6 Vx Vn 8 9 74.80 57.00 0.00 22.90 2119.5 Vx Vn 8 10 84.00 56.90 0.00 27.45 2146.9 Vx Vn 8 11 90.40 57.60 0.00 30.05 2177.0 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 12 95.80 61.20 0.00 32.85 2209.8 Vx Vn 8 13 98.00 65.50 0.00 35.10 2244.9 Vx Vn 8 14 95.80 70.60 0.00 37.05 2282.0 Vx Vn 8 15 96.00 61.50 0.00 33.02 2315.0 Vx Vn 8 16 95.90 65.10 0.00 34.64 2349.6 Vx Vn 8 17 94.70 63.90 0.00 33.91 2383.6 Vx Vn 8 18 96.80 65.80 0.00 35.08 2418.6 Vx Vn 8 19 89.30 64.50 0.00 33.13 2451.8 Vx Vn 8 20 94.60 55.10 0.00 29.79 2481.5 Vx Vn 8 21 95.40 65.00 0.00 34.52 2516.1 Vx Vn 8 22 80.40 56.00 0.00 25.20 2541.3 Vx Vn 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 23 83.10 54.50 0.00 25.80 2567.1 Vx Vn 8 24 86.90 51.70 0.00 26.11 2593.2 Vx Vn 8 25 89.70 51.50 0.00 26.89 2620.1 Vx Vn 8 26 91.50 57.50 0.00 30.27 2650.3 Vx Vn 8 27 91.10 68.90 0.00 35.60 2685.9 Vx Vn 8 28 89.50 62.00 0.00 31.96 2717.9 Vx Vn 8 29 92.00 56.60 0.00 29.95 2747.9 Vx Vn 8 30 82.40 61.70 0.00 29.05 2776.9 Vx Vn 8 31 83.30 59.60 0.00 28.45 2805.4 Vx Vn Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF23241 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF23241 Brown McClellan OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-28-16 15650% catch
 6-8-16 44995% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-16-16 58598% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-25-16 78195% egg hatch
 6-29-16 911mostly small larvae present
 7-10-16 1221mostly large larvae present
 7-20-16 15025% catch next generation
 8-1-16 189850% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-7-16 207468% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-11-16 217779% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-22-16 254195% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)