Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF22700 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Blue Mt Cherry OR Lat:45.9567 Long:-118.4367 Elev:869 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 62.00 43.90 0.00 9.95 10.0 * START * 5 21 62.70 45.90 0.03 11.30 21.2 5 22 67.80 52.60 0.00 17.20 38.5 5 23 70.50 51.50 0.00 18.00 56.5 Vx 5 24 70.80 51.20 0.00 18.00 74.5 5 25 74.50 52.00 0.00 20.25 94.7 5 26 69.40 52.40 0.00 17.90 112.6 5 27 66.90 49.00 0.00 14.95 127.6 5 28 71.90 47.50 0.00 16.70 144.2 50% catch 5 29 75.60 54.60 0.00 22.10 166.3 5 30 73.40 47.40 0.00 17.40 183.8 5 31 81.30 44.70 0.00 20.00 203.8 6 1 82.40 51.40 0.00 23.90 227.7 6 2 76.80 64.20 0.00 27.50 255.2 6 3 84.70 57.50 0.00 28.10 283.2 6 4 90.90 52.90 0.00 27.90 311.1 6 5 92.60 55.50 0.00 29.56 340.7 6 6 99.80 64.50 0.00 34.88 375.6 Vx 6 7 97.80 64.50 0.00 34.63 410.2 6 8 89.90 69.60 0.00 35.70 445.9 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 79.70 59.60 0.00 26.65 472.6 6 10 69.80 53.00 0.06 18.40 491.0 6 11 71.50 50.90 0.00 18.20 509.2 6 12 81.40 48.40 0.00 21.90 531.1 6 13 75.80 52.90 0.00 21.35 552.4 6 14 70.90 51.20 0.00 18.05 570.5 6 15 71.50 48.20 0.00 16.85 587.3 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 16 70.60 49.00 0.02 16.80 604.1 6 17 78.20 46.50 0.00 19.35 623.5 6 18 68.00 54.60 0.14 18.30 641.8 6 19 76.50 43.90 0.00 17.20 659.0 6 20 81.50 46.80 0.00 21.15 680.1 Vx 6 21 80.00 56.20 0.00 25.10 705.2 6 22 84.30 50.20 0.00 24.25 729.5 6 23 79.00 61.30 0.00 27.15 756.6 6 24 71.00 52.90 0.02 18.95 775.6 6 25 79.60 52.40 0.00 23.00 798.6 95% egg hatch 6 26 87.00 50.10 0.00 25.35 823.9 6 27 89.30 52.10 0.00 27.07 851.0 6 28 90.70 63.60 0.00 33.02 884.0 6 29 88.30 60.80 0.00 31.06 915.1 mostly small larvae present 6 30 87.90 63.50 0.00 32.27 947.3 7 1 86.70 58.50 0.00 29.42 976.8 7 2 88.20 62.20 0.00 31.72 1008.5 7 3 85.60 67.70 0.00 33.60 1042.1 7 4 81.70 56.00 0.00 25.85 1067.9 7 5 78.30 55.70 0.00 24.00 1091.9 7 6 77.70 59.70 0.00 25.70 1117.6 7 7 76.80 55.00 0.00 22.90 1140.5 7 8 71.50 59.00 0.15 22.25 1162.8 7 9 76.00 56.50 0.15 23.25 1186.0 7 10 65.70 56.60 0.00 18.15 1204.2 mostly large larvae present 7 11 76.30 58.20 0.00 24.25 1228.4 7 12 75.00 57.30 0.04 23.15 1251.6 7 13 80.30 59.90 0.00 27.10 1278.7 7 14 84.70 54.10 0.00 26.40 1305.1 7 15 79.30 57.00 0.00 25.15 1330.2 7 16 80.30 59.70 0.00 27.00 1357.2 7 17 84.80 56.00 0.00 27.40 1384.6 7 18 78.90 58.60 0.00 25.75 1410.4 7 19 78.00 60.10 0.00 26.05 1436.4 7 20 79.80 60.00 0.00 26.90 1463.3 7 21 87.70 53.40 0.00 27.23 1490.6 5% catch next generation 7 22 80.00 64.10 0.00 29.05 1519.6 7 23 79.80 56.20 0.00 25.00 1544.6 7 24 86.10 52.20 0.00 26.07 1570.7 7 25 96.70 57.90 0.00 31.48 1602.2 Vx 7 26 90.00 69.00 0.00 35.44 1637.6 7 27 89.60 65.90 0.00 33.87 1671.5 7 28 92.10 63.60 0.00 33.31 1704.8 7 29 94.00 64.10 0.00 33.88 1738.7 7 30 92.10 70.00 0.00 36.28 1774.9 7 31 86.10 61.60 0.00 30.75 1805.7 8 1 90.60 57.30 0.00 29.96 1835.6 Vx 8 2 80.80 58.10 0.00 26.45 1862.1 8 3 79.80 57.60 0.00 25.70 1887.8 8 4 89.40 52.60 0.00 27.35 1915.1 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 5 90.90 55.20 0.00 29.01 1944.2 8 6 88.90 62.20 0.00 31.91 1976.1 8 7 84.70 58.20 0.00 28.45 2004.5 8 8 77.90 55.00 0.00 23.45 2028.0 8 9 72.80 54.90 0.00 20.85 2048.8 8 10 84.60 57.10 0.00 27.85 2076.7 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 11 92.80 52.10 0.00 27.97 2104.6 8 12 91.70 54.80 0.00 29.01 2133.7 8 13 91.80 55.20 0.00 29.23 2162.9 8 14 91.00 60.90 0.00 31.79 2194.7 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 15 95.70 60.70 0.00 32.60 2227.3 Vx 8 16 90.80 59.90 0.00 31.26 2258.5 8 17 88.90 62.40 0.00 32.01 2290.5 8 18 89.10 60.00 0.00 30.89 2321.4 8 19 85.40 56.20 0.00 27.78 2349.2 8 20 90.00 55.20 0.00 28.78 2378.0 8 21 92.20 64.00 0.00 33.51 2411.5 8 22 77.50 55.60 0.00 23.55 2435.1 8 23 80.80 51.20 0.00 23.00 2458.1 8 24 86.90 52.20 0.00 26.36 2484.4 Vx 8 25 86.60 50.90 0.00 25.61 2510.0 8 26 88.30 51.50 0.00 26.48 2536.5 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 27 90.90 70.00 0.00 36.08 2572.6 8 28 89.10 63.80 0.00 32.74 2605.3 Vx 8 29 91.90 53.80 0.00 28.58 2633.9 Vx 8 30 77.70 59.70 0.00 25.70 2659.6 8 31 82.60 57.60 0.00 27.10 2686.7 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF22700 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF22700 Blue Mt Cherry
DateDDsEvent
 5-28-16 14450% catch
 6-8-16 44695% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-15-16 58798% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-25-16 79995% egg hatch
 6-29-16 915mostly small larvae present
 7-10-16 1204mostly large larvae present
 7-21-16 14915% catch next generation
 8-4-16 191550% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-10-16 207768% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-14-16 219579% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-26-16 253695% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)