Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits]
insect model of Brunner etal (1997)


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Type: insect Model source/other links: Brunner etal (1997) Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 43 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 85 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first catch of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 20 Ending date: 8 31 Model validation status: not fully tested Region of known use: Pacific Northwest ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 140 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch 2. 440 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 3. 585 DD after 1st catch: 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 4. 780 DD after 1st catch: 95% egg hatch 5. 900 DD after 1st catch: mostly small larvae present 6. 1200 DD after 1st catch: mostly large larvae present 7. 1480 DD after 1st catch: 5% catch next generation 8. 1890 DD after 1st catch: 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 9. 2050 DD after 1st catch: 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 10. 2170 DD after 1st catch: 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 11. 2530 DD after 1st catch: 95% catch, 95% egg hatch ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF22663 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burlinggame Lefore OR Lat45.9592 Long:-118.3756 Elev:925 mn day max min precip DD43 CUMDD43 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 5 20 61.20 40.90 0.00 8.34 8.3 * START * 5 21 64.10 46.00 0.02 12.05 20.4 5 22 69.10 50.80 0.00 16.95 37.3 5 23 72.00 51.20 0.00 18.60 55.9 5 24 71.90 50.20 0.00 18.05 74.0 5 25 77.70 48.60 0.00 20.15 94.1 5 26 70.50 51.20 0.00 17.85 112.0 5 27 68.30 50.50 0.00 16.40 128.4 5 28 76.30 48.80 0.00 19.55 147.9 50% catch 5 29 78.70 55.30 0.00 24.00 171.9 5 30 75.90 50.60 0.00 20.25 192.2 Vx 5 31 84.40 46.70 0.00 22.55 214.7 Vx 6 1 84.00 52.30 0.00 25.15 239.9 6 2 75.70 62.00 0.00 25.85 265.7 6 3 85.80 57.70 0.00 28.69 294.4 6 4 92.60 51.70 0.00 27.73 322.2 6 5 92.90 56.40 0.00 30.05 352.2 6 6 99.00 65.60 0.00 35.26 387.5 Vx 6 7 97.00 65.70 0.00 35.06 422.5 6 8 86.50 66.90 0.00 33.52 456.1 95% catch, 1% egg hatch 6 9 76.90 58.20 0.00 24.55 480.6 6 10 70.50 52.70 0.04 18.60 499.2 6 11 74.00 48.90 0.00 18.45 517.7 6 12 79.50 46.50 0.00 20.00 537.7 6 13 74.70 54.30 0.00 21.50 559.2 Vx 6 14 70.00 50.40 0.00 17.20 576.4 6 15 69.00 48.30 0.00 15.65 592.0 98% catch, 50% egg hatch 6 16 67.90 47.00 0.02 14.45 606.5 6 17 77.10 46.60 0.00 18.85 625.3 6 18 59.00 54.70 0.07 13.85 639.2 6 19 73.40 46.80 0.00 17.10 656.3 6 20 79.60 47.20 0.00 20.40 676.7 6 21 80.70 58.40 0.00 26.55 703.2 6 22 85.80 50.10 0.00 24.90 728.1 6 23 81.10 58.70 0.00 26.90 755.0 6 24 74.50 54.20 0.01 21.35 776.4 6 25 80.70 49.90 0.00 22.30 798.7 95% egg hatch 6 26 90.80 49.20 0.00 26.07 824.7 6 27 93.30 56.90 0.00 30.38 855.1 Vx 6 28 86.00 64.60 0.02 32.21 887.3 6 29 94.40 66.20 0.00 34.91 922.2 Vx mostly small larvae present 6 30 91.80 66.20 0.00 34.47 956.7 Vx Vn 7 1 88.90 60.50 0.00 31.08 987.8 Vx 7 2 89.90 62.70 0.00 32.40 1020.2 Vx 7 3 85.40 67.00 0.00 33.17 1053.3 Vx 7 4 80.30 57.30 0.00 25.80 1079.1 Vx Vn 7 5 78.70 55.00 0.00 23.85 1103.0 7 6 80.70 61.00 0.00 27.85 1130.8 7 7 81.30 56.80 0.00 26.05 1156.9 Vx 7 8 77.70 59.70 0.16 25.70 1182.6 Vx 7 9 77.70 57.60 0.07 24.65 1207.2 mostly large larvae present 7 10 67.80 57.30 0.00 19.55 1226.8 7 11 80.50 58.70 0.00 26.60 1253.4 Vx Vn 7 12 80.00 56.80 0.01 25.40 1278.8 7 13 83.70 57.10 0.00 27.40 1306.2 7 14 89.60 57.60 0.00 29.85 1336.0 Vx 7 15 81.20 56.90 0.00 26.05 1362.1 Vx 7 16 83.50 58.50 0.00 28.00 1390.1 Vx 7 17 87.80 59.80 0.00 30.42 1420.5 Vx 7 18 80.60 59.70 0.00 27.15 1447.7 Vx 7 19 80.00 60.00 0.00 27.00 1474.7 7 20 87.40 61.70 0.00 31.24 1505.9 Vx 5% catch next generation 7 21 95.10 55.60 0.00 30.12 1536.0 Vx 7 22 82.80 63.30 0.00 30.05 1566.1 Vx 7 23 83.90 57.00 0.00 27.45 1593.5 Vx 7 24 90.00 56.20 0.00 29.27 1622.8 Vx 7 25 96.60 63.60 0.00 34.06 1656.9 Vx 7 26 95.20 71.40 0.00 37.32 1694.2 Vx 7 27 95.00 69.20 0.00 36.34 1730.5 Vx Vn 7 28 99.10 67.70 0.00 36.18 1766.7 Vx 7 29 101.50 69.60 0.00 37.20 1803.9 Vx 7 30 94.50 71.70 0.00 37.37 1841.3 Vx Vn 7 31 86.50 59.70 0.00 29.95 1871.2 8 1 90.70 57.30 0.00 29.98 1901.2 Vx Vn 50% catch, 1% egg hatch 8 2 78.70 62.60 0.00 27.65 1928.8 8 3 83.70 56.60 0.00 27.15 1956.0 Vx 8 4 92.80 55.40 0.00 29.55 1985.6 Vx Vn 8 5 93.50 60.80 0.00 32.26 2017.8 Vx 8 6 88.40 63.80 0.00 32.56 2050.4 68% catch, 25% egg hatch 8 7 82.80 62.10 0.00 29.45 2079.8 Vx 8 8 77.50 53.90 0.00 22.70 2102.5 Vx 8 9 74.00 56.00 0.02 22.00 2124.5 8 10 84.00 56.00 0.00 27.00 2151.5 Vx 8 11 90.00 57.50 0.00 29.90 2181.4 Vx Vn 79% catch, 50% egg hatch 8 12 95.50 56.00 0.00 30.39 2211.8 Vx 8 13 97.00 65.10 0.00 34.79 2246.6 Vx Vn 8 14 95.50 69.80 0.00 36.67 2283.3 Vx Vn 8 15 95.70 63.30 0.00 33.79 2317.1 Vx Vn 8 16 95.40 61.20 0.06 32.78 2349.8 Vx 8 17 94.90 62.80 0.04 33.44 2383.3 Vx 8 18 96.40 65.90 0.00 35.07 2418.3 Vx 8 19 86.20 60.40 0.02 30.19 2448.5 8 20 81.20 57.90 0.09 26.55 2475.1 8 21 94.40 59.70 0.00 31.91 2507.0 8 22 78.60 56.00 0.00 24.30 2531.3 95% catch, 95% egg hatch 8 23 82.90 52.50 0.00 24.70 2556.0 8 24 86.90 58.60 0.00 29.54 2585.5 Vx 8 25 89.10 53.60 0.00 27.75 2613.3 8 26 91.20 57.20 0.00 30.05 2643.3 8 27 89.40 67.80 0.00 34.74 2678.1 8 28 89.00 64.00 0.04 32.81 2710.9 Vx 8 29 94.20 57.00 0.00 30.61 2741.5 Vx 8 30 79.70 62.40 0.00 28.05 2769.5 8 31 84.70 58.00 0.00 28.35 2797.9 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF22663 2006-2015
obliquebanded leafroller model - Brunner etal
Location: 2016 MF22663 Burlinggame Lefore OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-28-16 14850% catch
 6-8-16 45695% catch, 1% egg hatch
 6-15-16 59298% catch, 50% egg hatch
 6-25-16 79995% egg hatch
 6-29-16 922mostly small larvae present
 7-9-16 1207mostly large larvae present
 7-20-16 15065% catch next generation
 8-1-16 190150% catch, 1% egg hatch
 8-6-16 205068% catch, 25% egg hatch
 8-11-16 218179% catch, 50% egg hatch
 8-22-16 253195% catch, 95% egg hatch
degree-day graph of obliquebanded leafroller [tree fruits] Brunner etal (1997)