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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 2007
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: actively undergoing evaluation
Region of known use: used in WA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
2. 340 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
3. 460 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
4. 535 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5. 655 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6. 755 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
7. 920 DDs after biofix: 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
8. 980 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
9. 1160 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
10. 1480 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
11. 1605 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
12. 1765 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
13. 1940 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
14. 2120 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
15. 2200 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
16. 2300 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF25976 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Davis Nash Gala OR Lat:45.9667 Long:-118.4167 Elev:882
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 74.50 50.70 0.00 12.60 12.6 * START *Vx Vn
4 11 76.50 47.60 0.00 12.35 24.9 Vx Vn
4 12 67.50 51.20 0.00 9.35 34.3 Vx Vn
4 13 64.50 45.20 0.00 5.89 40.2 Vx Vn
4 14 63.30 44.60 0.00 5.22 45.4 Vx Vn
4 15 65.70 45.60 0.00 6.54 52.0 Vx Vn
4 16 71.10 39.50 0.00 7.96 59.9 Vx Vn
4 17 76.60 39.40 0.00 10.48 70.4 Vx Vn
4 18 80.00 42.80 0.00 12.77 83.2 Vx Vn
4 19 83.10 46.60 0.00 15.29 98.5 Vx Vn
4 20 85.70 45.50 0.00 16.25 114.7 Vx Vn
4 21 79.00 54.10 0.00 16.55 131.3 Vx Vn
4 22 77.30 54.80 0.00 16.05 147.3 Vx Vn
4 23 70.90 52.90 0.00 11.90 159.2 Vx Vn
4 24 66.20 48.20 0.00 7.44 166.7 Vx Vn
4 25 65.50 42.10 0.00 5.82 172.5 Vx Vn
4 26 66.50 43.00 0.00 6.42 178.9 Vx Vn
4 27 61.30 49.50 0.00 5.44 184.3 Vx Vn
4 28 71.30 50.10 0.00 10.70 195.0 Vx Vn
4 29 57.90 50.70 0.00 4.30 199.3 Vx Vn
4 30 68.50 47.90 0.00 8.49 207.8 Vx Vn
5 1 77.90 41.40 0.00 11.47 219.3 Vx Vn
5 2 85.00 47.20 0.00 16.43 235.7 Vx Vn 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
5 3 68.60 45.70 0.00 7.96 243.7 Hx Hn
5 4 68.90 45.90 0.00 8.15 251.8 Hx Hn
5 5 69.20 46.20 0.00 8.37 260.2 Hx Hn
5 6 77.60 53.40 0.00 15.50 275.7 Vx Vn
5 7 82.50 53.10 0.00 17.80 293.5 Vx Vn
5 8 77.60 54.50 0.00 16.05 309.5 Vx Vn
5 9 65.50 47.50 0.00 6.90 316.4 Vx Vn
5 10 75.30 41.20 0.00 10.20 326.6 Vx Vn
5 11 81.80 46.30 0.00 14.56 341.2 Vx Vn 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
5 12 86.00 63.10 0.00 24.55 365.8 Vx Vn
5 13 83.10 48.40 0.00 15.90 381.7 Vx Vn
5 14 67.90 54.40 0.00 11.15 392.8 Vx Vn
5 15 58.70 52.30 0.00 5.50 398.3 Vx Vn
5 16 72.00 52.40 0.00 12.20 410.5 Vx Vn
5 17 79.00 50.10 0.00 14.55 425.1 Vx Vn
5 18 83.50 56.50 0.00 20.00 445.1 Vx Vn
5 19 67.00 49.90 0.00 8.45 453.5 Vx Vn
5 20 62.30 42.10 0.00 4.39 457.9 Vx Vn
5 21 64.30 48.20 0.00 6.51 464.4 Vx Vn 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
5 22 67.90 52.50 0.00 10.20 474.6 Vx Vn
5 23 70.30 52.00 0.00 11.15 485.8 Vx Vn
5 24 73.00 52.00 0.00 12.50 498.3 Vx Vn
5 25 78.50 51.70 0.00 15.10 513.4 Vx Vn
5 26 70.50 53.70 0.00 12.10 525.5 Vx Vn
5 27 67.50 50.80 0.00 9.15 534.6 Vx Vn
5 28 75.40 49.10 0.00 12.32 546.9 Vx Vn 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5 29 78.50 55.30 0.00 16.90 563.8 Vx Vn
5 30 76.30 49.30 0.00 12.85 576.7 Vx Vn
5 31 84.80 47.20 0.00 16.33 593.0 Vx Vn
6 1 85.30 54.00 0.00 19.65 612.6 Vx Vn
6 2 76.90 64.20 0.00 20.55 633.2 Vx Vn
6 3 86.80 59.00 0.00 22.90 656.1 Vx Vn 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6 4 94.10 54.10 0.00 23.07 679.2 Vx Vn
6 5 95.50 59.00 0.00 25.78 704.9 Vx Vn
6 6 99.40 67.30 0.00 30.35 735.3 Vx Vn
6 7 98.30 69.00 0.00 30.95 766.3 Vx Vn 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
6 8 86.00 64.60 0.00 25.30 791.6 Vx Vn
6 9 78.20 58.30 0.00 18.25 809.8 Vx Vn
6 10 70.00 54.40 0.00 12.20 822.0 Vx Vn
6 11 72.10 50.00 0.00 11.05 833.1 Vx Vn
6 12 78.60 49.20 0.00 13.96 847.0 Vx Vn
6 13 74.90 58.40 0.00 16.65 863.7 Vx Vn
6 14 68.70 51.60 0.00 10.15 873.8 Vx Vn
6 15 68.10 47.90 0.00 8.29 882.1 Vx Vn
6 16 68.30 49.10 0.00 8.78 890.9 Vx Vn
6 17 80.20 48.80 0.00 14.60 905.5 Vx Vn
6 18 67.30 53.40 0.00 10.35 915.8 Vx Vn
6 19 77.20 46.70 0.00 12.42 928.2 Vx Vn 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
6 20 81.50 50.10 0.00 15.80 944.0 Vx Vn
6 21 79.80 57.90 0.00 18.85 962.9 Vx Vn
6 22 85.70 48.70 0.00 17.30 980.2 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
6 23 81.50 62.30 0.00 21.90 1002.1 Vx Vn
6 24 73.80 54.40 0.00 14.10 1016.2 Vx Vn
6 25 81.50 51.80 0.00 16.65 1032.8 Vx Vn
6 26 91.50 52.50 0.00 21.55 1054.4 Vx Vn
6 27 93.50 60.40 0.00 25.98 1080.4 Vx Vn
6 28 95.20 66.60 0.00 29.32 1109.7 Vx Vn
6 29 94.50 65.10 0.00 28.47 1138.2 Vx Vn
6 30 90.40 65.80 0.00 27.78 1166.0 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
7 1 89.00 63.20 0.00 26.02 1192.0 Vx Vn
7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 26.32 1218.3 Vx Vn
7 3 85.60 64.80 0.00 25.20 1243.5 Vx Vn
7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 19.05 1262.5 Vx Vn
7 5 78.40 55.40 0.00 16.90 1279.4 Vx Vn
7 6 81.20 59.60 0.00 20.40 1299.8 Vx Vn
7 7 81.60 60.50 0.00 21.05 1320.9 Vx Vn
7 8 77.80 61.50 0.00 19.65 1340.5 Vx Vn
7 9 78.00 58.30 0.00 18.15 1358.7 Vx Vn
7 10 69.80 59.00 0.00 14.40 1373.1 Vx Vn
7 11 80.80 59.00 0.00 19.90 1393.0 Vx Vn
7 12 79.80 59.80 0.00 19.80 1412.8 Vx Vn
7 13 83.40 56.70 0.00 20.05 1432.8 Vx Vn
7 14 89.80 57.90 0.00 23.67 1456.5 Vx Vn
7 15 81.40 57.90 0.00 19.65 1476.2 Vx Vn
7 16 83.70 59.20 0.00 21.45 1497.6 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
7 17 88.00 58.00 0.00 23.00 1520.6 Vx Vn
7 18 80.80 61.50 0.00 21.15 1541.8 Vx Vn
7 19 79.70 60.40 0.00 20.05 1561.8 Vx Vn
7 20 87.40 61.10 0.00 24.25 1586.1 Vx Vn
7 21 95.20 57.00 0.00 24.75 1610.8 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
7 22 83.00 64.70 0.00 23.85 1634.7 Vx Vn
7 23 84.10 59.00 0.00 21.55 1656.2 Vx Vn
7 24 90.20 54.50 0.00 22.12 1678.3 Vx Vn
7 25 96.90 59.80 0.00 26.45 1704.8 Vx Vn
7 26 95.90 72.40 0.00 32.13 1736.9 Vx Vn
7 27 95.20 69.40 0.00 30.64 1767.5 Vx Vn 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
7 28 99.40 68.80 0.00 31.02 1798.6 Vx Vn
7 29 101.70 70.20 0.00 31.92 1830.5 Vx Vn
7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 31.66 1862.1 Vx Vn
7 31 86.90 62.50 0.00 24.70 1886.8 Vx Vn
8 1 90.90 57.00 0.00 23.59 1910.4 Vx Vn
8 2 78.60 62.10 0.00 20.35 1930.8 Vx Vn
8 3 84.00 55.20 0.00 19.60 1950.4 Vx Vn 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
8 4 92.90 55.00 0.00 23.19 1973.6 Vx Vn
8 5 94.20 63.30 0.00 27.55 2001.1 Vx Vn
8 6 87.90 61.30 0.00 24.60 2025.7 Vx Vn
8 7 82.90 62.40 0.00 22.65 2048.4 Vx Vn
8 8 77.10 53.50 0.00 15.30 2063.7 Vx Vn
8 9 74.60 56.90 0.00 15.75 2079.4 Vx Vn
8 10 84.30 56.00 0.00 20.15 2099.6 Vx Vn
8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 23.69 2123.3 Vx Vn 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
8 12 95.70 61.30 0.00 26.92 2150.2 Vx Vn
8 13 97.70 65.40 0.00 29.22 2179.4 Vx Vn
8 14 95.60 70.50 0.00 31.22 2210.6 Vx Vn 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
8 15 95.80 63.10 0.00 27.79 2238.4 Vx Vn
8 16 95.70 64.90 0.00 28.62 2267.0 Vx Vn
8 17 95.00 63.90 0.00 28.01 2295.0 Vx Vn
8 18 96.70 65.80 0.00 29.23 2324.3 Vx Vn 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
8 19 90.60 64.00 0.00 26.95 2351.2 Vx Vn
8 20 94.40 55.40 0.00 23.78 2375.0 Vx Vn
8 21 94.00 66.90 0.00 29.22 2404.2 Vx Vn
8 22 79.50 56.90 0.00 18.20 2422.4 Vx Vn
8 23 82.80 54.60 0.00 18.70 2441.1 Vx Vn
8 24 87.00 53.90 0.00 20.45 2461.6 Vx Vn
8 25 89.50 53.00 0.00 21.12 2482.7 Vx Vn
8 26 91.40 57.10 0.00 23.79 2506.5 Vx Vn
8 27 90.80 68.80 0.00 29.37 2535.8 Vx Vn
8 28 89.20 60.40 0.00 24.70 2560.5 Vx Vn
8 29 94.30 57.70 0.00 24.87 2585.4 Vx Vn
8 30 82.20 61.90 0.00 22.05 2607.5 Vx Vn
8 31 83.20 59.40 0.00 21.30 2628.8 Vx Vn
9 1 79.00 59.60 0.00 19.30 2648.1 Vx Vn
9 2 74.90 55.20 0.00 15.05 2663.1 Vx Vn
9 3 72.90 52.60 0.00 12.75 2675.9 Vx Vn
9 4 74.30 46.90 0.00 11.05 2686.9 Vx Vn
9 5 74.70 50.70 0.00 12.70 2699.6 Vx Vn
9 6 65.60 56.00 0.00 10.80 2710.4 Vx Vn
9 7 77.40 57.40 0.00 17.40 2727.8 Vx Vn
9 8 78.10 56.30 0.00 17.20 2745.0 Vx Vn
9 9 78.70 46.90 0.00 13.21 2758.2 Vx Vn
9 10 89.00 51.60 0.00 20.23 2778.5 Vx Vn
9 11 75.60 50.80 0.00 13.20 2791.7 Vx Vn
9 12 73.20 43.50 0.00 9.67 2801.3 Vx Vn
9 13 72.50 43.10 0.00 9.25 2810.6 Vx Vn
9 14 78.70 46.80 0.00 13.18 2823.8 Vx Vn
9 15 83.20 53.60 0.00 18.40 2842.2 Vx Vn
9 16 87.70 53.80 0.00 20.75 2862.9 Vx Vn
9 17 72.20 62.40 0.00 17.30 2880.2 Vx Vn
9 18 72.30 59.90 0.00 16.10 2896.3 Vx Vn
9 19 68.10 57.20 0.00 12.65 2909.0 Vx Vn
9 20 69.40 49.10 0.00 9.33 2918.3 Vx Vn
9 21 67.30 45.50 0.00 7.29 2925.6 Vx Vn
9 22 57.40 43.60 0.00 2.45 2928.0 Vx Vn
9 23 67.60 52.10 0.00 9.85 2937.9 Vx Vn
9 24 70.50 52.50 0.00 11.50 2949.4 Vx Vn
9 25 82.60 50.10 0.00 16.35 2965.7 Vx Vn
9 26 83.00 50.30 0.00 16.65 2982.4 Vx Vn
9 27 84.00 59.40 0.00 21.70 3004.1 Vx Vn
9 28 76.70 50.50 0.00 13.60 3017.7 Vx Vn
9 29 79.10 50.50 0.00 14.80 3032.5 Vx Vn
9 30 74.20 54.60 0.00 14.40 3046.9 Vx Vn
10 1 70.50 48.60 0.00 9.70 3056.6 Vx Vn
10 2 67.20 39.40 0.00 6.20 3062.8 Vx Vn
10 3 68.10 48.10 0.00 8.35 3071.1 Vx Vn
10 4 66.60 47.80 0.00 7.52 3078.7 Vx Vn
10 5 64.50 49.80 0.00 7.16 3085.8 Vx Vn
10 6 66.20 51.30 0.00 8.75 3094.6 Vx Vn
10 7 64.00 56.10 0.00 10.05 3104.6 Vx Vn
10 8 72.70 50.30 0.00 11.50 3116.1 Vx Vn
10 9 66.20 53.90 0.00 10.05 3126.2 Vx Vn
10 10 60.50 43.90 0.00 3.84 3130.0 Vx Vn
10 11 58.80 38.00 0.00 2.55 3132.6 Vx Vn
10 12 57.90 30.80 0.00 1.87 3134.4 Vx Vn
10 13 61.00 43.60 0.00 4.02 3138.4 Vx Vn
10 14 68.00 52.80 0.00 10.40 3148.8 Vx Vn
10 15 61.40 50.50 0.00 5.95 3154.8 Vx Vn
10 16 64.70 51.20 0.00 7.95 3162.7 Vx Vn
10 17 62.20 48.80 0.00 5.65 3168.4 Vx Vn
10 18 59.20 48.40 0.00 4.07 3172.5 Vx Vn
10 19 65.80 43.40 0.00 6.17 3178.6 Vx Vn
10 20 68.10 56.60 0.00 12.35 3191.0 Vx Vn
10 21 55.70 51.30 0.00 3.50 3194.5 Vx Vn
10 22 61.60 43.80 0.00 4.31 3198.8 Vx Vn
10 23 56.00 42.60 0.00 1.79 3200.6 Vx Vn
10 24 59.60 39.50 0.00 2.98 3203.6 Vx Vn
10 25 65.40 48.70 0.00 7.20 3210.8 Vx Vn
10 26 56.60 52.80 0.00 4.70 3215.5 Vx Vn
10 27 55.70 50.60 0.00 3.15 3218.6 Vx Vn
10 28 54.80 41.50 0.00 1.27 3219.9 Vx Vn
10 29 48.90 43.80 0.00 0.00 3219.9 Vx Vn
10 30 49.40 44.50 0.00 0.00 3219.9 Vx Vn
10 31 57.00 47.80 0.00 2.87 3222.8 Vx Vn
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF25976 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth revised 07 model - Knight 2007Location: 2016 MF25976 Davis Nash Gala Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-2-16 | 236 | 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight |
| 5-11-16 | 341 | 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight |
| 5-21-16 | 464 | 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight |
| 5-28-16 | 547 | 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight |
| 6-3-16 | 656 | 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight |
| 6-7-16 | 766 | 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight |
| 6-19-16 | 928 | 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight |
| 6-22-16 | 980 | 2nd generation: 5% moth flight |
| 6-30-16 | 1166 | 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight |
| 7-16-16 | 1498 | 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight |
| 7-21-16 | 1611 | 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight |
| 7-27-16 | 1768 | 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight |
| 8-3-16 | 1950 | 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight |
| 8-11-16 | 2123 | 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight |
| 8-14-16 | 2211 | 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight |
| 8-18-16 | 2324 | 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight |
![degree-day graph of codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear] Knight 2007](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?4031162)
