Online Phenology Models and Degree-day Calculator
eggsimmaturepupaadult
codling moth revised 06 [apple & pear]
insect model of Knight 2006


Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
	Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: codling moth revised 06 [apple & pear] Type: insect Model source/other links: Knight 2006 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1 Ending date: 10 31 Model validation status: actively undergoing evaluation Region of known use: used in WA ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 220 DDs after biofix: 1ST GENERATION: 1% EGG HATCH, 29% MOTH FLIGHT 2. 340 DDs after biofix: 1ST GENERATION: 3% EGG HATCH, 58% MOTH FLIGHT 3. 460 DDs after biofix: 1ST GENERATION: 10% EGG HATCH, 83% MOTH FLIGHT 4. 535 DDs after biofix: 1ST GENERATION: 20% EGG HATCH, 91% MOTH FLIGHT 5. 655 DDs after biofix: 1ST GENERATION: 50% EGG HATCH, 97% MOTH FLIGHT 6. 755 DDs after biofix: 1ST GENERATION: 75% EGG HATCH, 99% MOTH FLIGHT 7. 920 DDs after biofix: 1ST GEN: 95% EGG HATCH, 2ND GEN: 3% MOTH FLIGHT 8. 980 DDs after biofix: 2ND GENERATION: 5% MOTH FLIGHT 9. 1160 DDs after biofix: 2ND GENERATION: 5% EGG HATCH, 18% MOTH FLIGHT 10. 1480 DDs after biofix: 2ND GENERATION: 30% EGG HATCH, 74% MOTH FLIGHT 11. 1605 DDs after biofix: 2ND GENERATION: 50% EGG HATCH, 89% MOTH FLIGHT 12. 1765 DDs after biofix: 2ND GENERATION: 75% EGG HATCH, 96% MOTH FLIGHT 13. 1940 DDs after biofix: 2ND GEN: 90% EGG HATCH, 3RD GEN: 7% MOTH FLIGHT 14. 2120 DDs after biofix: 2ND GEN: 97% EGG HATCH, 3RD GEN: 35% MOTH FLIGHT 15. 2200 DDs after biofix: 3RD GEN: 13% EGG HATCH, 56% MOTH FLIGHT 16. 2300 DDs after biofix: 3RD GEN: 56% EGG HATCH, 79% MOTH FLIGHT ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2016 MF24585 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Oliver Cherries OR Lat45.9717 Long:-118.3739 Elev:882 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 4 10 72.80 47.40 0.00 10.46 10.5 * START * 4 11 76.00 47.20 0.00 11.97 22.4 4 12 67.50 50.70 0.02 9.10 31.5 4 13 63.60 48.20 0.00 6.16 37.7 4 14 63.20 42.30 0.00 4.82 42.5 4 15 64.80 43.60 0.00 5.74 48.3 4 16 69.50 35.50 0.00 6.72 55.0 4 17 73.60 37.50 0.00 8.79 63.8 4 18 80.00 39.50 0.00 12.08 75.9 Vx 4 19 79.90 43.30 0.00 12.84 88.7 4 20 82.20 43.20 0.00 13.93 102.6 4 21 76.80 50.90 0.00 13.85 116.5 4 22 75.60 52.10 0.00 13.85 130.3 4 23 69.60 52.40 0.00 11.00 141.3 4 24 65.70 49.40 0.00 7.60 148.9 4 25 65.50 39.60 0.00 5.48 154.4 Vx 4 26 63.80 41.50 0.00 4.97 159.4 4 27 60.00 47.20 0.03 4.17 163.5 4 28 68.00 48.50 0.00 8.43 172.0 4 29 57.40 48.90 0.03 3.32 175.3 4 30 66.20 47.50 0.02 7.24 182.5 5 1 74.60 40.20 0.00 9.69 192.2 5 2 85.00 42.80 0.00 15.18 207.4 Vx 5 3 86.10 62.60 0.00 24.35 231.8 1ST GENERATION: 1% EGG HATCH, 29% MOTH FLIGHT 5 4 77.70 57.20 0.00 17.45 249.2 5 5 69.30 45.60 0.00 8.27 257.5 Hx Hn 5 6 75.00 51.20 0.00 13.10 270.6 5 7 79.60 52.10 0.00 15.85 286.4 5 8 77.00 57.80 0.00 17.40 303.8 5 9 65.50 47.70 0.00 6.96 310.8 Vx 5 10 71.10 37.90 0.00 7.73 318.5 5 11 82.00 46.10 0.00 14.60 333.1 Vx Vn 5 12 83.40 57.40 0.00 20.40 353.5 1ST GENERATION: 3% EGG HATCH, 58% MOTH FLIGHT 5 13 80.70 45.70 0.00 13.85 367.4 5 14 67.50 51.80 0.07 9.65 377.0 5 15 58.80 51.70 0.11 5.25 382.3 5 16 72.00 52.00 0.01 12.00 394.3 Vx 5 17 75.70 49.80 0.00 12.76 407.0 5 18 82.20 53.80 0.00 18.00 425.0 5 19 67.80 49.30 0.00 8.61 433.6 5 20 61.40 40.90 0.00 3.86 437.5 5 21 63.60 44.40 0.01 5.32 442.8 5 22 68.50 50.30 0.00 9.40 452.2 5 23 70.80 50.70 0.00 10.75 463.0 1ST GENERATION: 10% EGG HATCH, 83% MOTH FLIGHT 5 24 74.00 49.50 0.00 11.78 474.7 5 25 76.90 47.60 0.00 12.54 487.3 5 26 70.80 50.80 0.00 10.80 498.1 5 27 69.80 50.90 0.00 10.35 508.4 5 28 76.10 48.20 0.00 12.34 520.8 5 29 79.60 52.60 0.00 16.10 536.9 1ST GENERATION: 20% EGG HATCH, 91% MOTH FLIGHT 5 30 76.30 48.20 0.00 12.44 549.3 Vx 5 31 84.80 40.80 0.00 14.63 563.9 Vx 6 1 85.20 49.50 0.00 17.37 581.3 6 2 78.10 60.80 0.00 19.45 600.8 6 3 86.40 57.20 0.00 21.80 622.6 6 4 89.00 50.30 0.00 19.58 642.1 6 5 91.20 54.30 0.00 22.35 664.5 1ST GENERATION: 50% EGG HATCH, 97% MOTH FLIGHT 6 6 99.20 58.30 0.00 26.19 690.7 Vx 6 7 94.00 64.20 0.00 27.93 718.6 6 8 87.70 66.90 0.00 27.30 745.9 6 9 77.20 56.40 0.00 16.80 762.7 1ST GENERATION: 75% EGG HATCH, 99% MOTH FLIGHT 6 10 67.70 53.30 0.01 10.50 773.2 6 11 72.00 46.10 0.00 9.70 782.9 6 12 77.30 44.50 0.00 11.87 794.8 6 13 74.90 53.00 0.00 13.95 808.7 Vx 6 14 69.30 50.10 0.00 9.70 818.4 6 15 69.30 46.50 0.00 8.49 826.9 6 16 69.60 45.30 0.01 8.35 835.3 6 17 79.10 42.50 0.00 12.27 847.5 6 18 66.80 52.50 0.06 9.65 857.2 6 19 76.30 42.50 0.00 10.93 868.1 6 20 80.20 46.80 0.00 13.92 882.1 6 21 80.50 58.70 0.00 19.60 901.7 6 22 87.20 45.70 0.00 17.04 918.7 6 23 81.30 59.80 0.00 20.55 939.2 1ST GEN: 95% EGG HATCH, 2ND GEN: 3% MOTH FLIGHT 6 24 75.60 54.00 0.02 14.80 954.0 6 25 81.50 48.10 0.00 14.99 969.0 6 26 87.70 46.80 0.00 17.63 986.7 2ND GENERATION: 5% MOTH FLIGHT 6 27 93.50 60.50 0.00 26.03 1012.7 Vx Vn 6 28 91.20 59.30 0.00 24.82 1037.5 6 29 94.60 63.50 0.00 27.73 1065.3 Vx 6 30 92.00 66.20 0.00 28.42 1093.7 Vx Vn 7 1 89.00 63.10 0.00 25.97 1119.6 Vx Vn 7 2 90.00 63.10 0.00 26.32 1146.0 Vx Vn 7 3 85.60 64.80 0.00 25.20 1171.2 Vx Vn 2ND GENERATION: 5% EGG HATCH, 18% MOTH FLIGHT 7 4 80.50 57.60 0.00 19.05 1190.2 Vx Vn 7 5 78.70 52.30 0.00 15.50 1205.7 7 6 81.40 60.50 0.00 20.95 1226.7 7 7 81.50 60.50 0.00 21.00 1247.7 Vx Vn 7 8 77.80 60.30 0.05 19.05 1266.7 Vx 7 9 77.60 57.50 0.06 17.55 1284.3 7 10 69.90 57.20 0.00 13.55 1297.8 7 11 80.80 59.00 0.00 19.90 1317.7 Vx Vn 7 12 80.20 56.30 0.02 18.25 1336.0 7 13 84.30 55.40 0.00 19.85 1355.8 7 14 89.80 53.00 0.00 21.23 1377.0 Vx 7 15 81.40 57.00 0.00 19.20 1396.2 Vx 7 16 83.70 58.00 0.00 20.85 1417.1 Vx 7 17 88.10 55.40 0.00 21.75 1438.8 Vx 7 18 80.80 59.10 0.00 19.95 1458.8 Vx 7 19 82.90 56.80 0.00 19.85 1478.6 7 20 87.70 58.90 0.00 23.30 1501.9 Vx 2ND GENERATION: 30% EGG HATCH, 74% MOTH FLIGHT 7 21 95.20 52.10 0.00 22.38 1524.3 Vx 7 22 83.00 64.50 0.00 23.75 1548.1 Vx Vn 7 23 84.10 55.90 0.00 20.00 1568.1 Vx 7 24 90.20 51.90 0.00 20.82 1588.9 Vx 7 25 96.80 58.40 0.00 25.77 1614.7 Vx 2ND GENERATION: 50% EGG HATCH, 89% MOTH FLIGHT 7 26 95.90 69.30 0.00 30.71 1645.4 Vx 7 27 95.20 69.40 0.00 30.64 1676.0 Vx Vn 7 28 99.40 63.40 0.00 28.58 1704.6 Vx 7 29 101.70 63.60 0.00 29.02 1733.6 Vx 7 30 94.70 71.80 0.00 31.66 1765.3 Vx Vn 2ND GENERATION: 75% EGG HATCH, 96% MOTH FLIGHT 7 31 86.90 62.40 0.00 24.65 1789.9 Vx Vn 8 1 90.90 57.00 0.00 23.59 1813.5 Vx Vn 8 2 78.70 57.30 0.00 18.00 1831.5 Vx 8 3 84.00 54.10 0.00 19.05 1850.6 Vx 8 4 90.20 50.00 0.00 19.88 1870.4 8 5 93.70 53.50 0.00 22.68 1893.1 Vx 8 6 85.60 63.50 0.00 24.55 1917.7 8 7 83.10 60.50 0.00 21.80 1939.5 Vx 8 8 77.20 51.30 0.00 14.25 1953.7 Vx 2ND GEN: 90% EGG HATCH, 3RD GEN: 7% MOTH FLIGHT 8 9 72.80 54.70 0.00 13.75 1967.5 8 10 84.30 53.90 0.00 19.10 1986.6 Vx 8 11 90.30 57.60 0.00 23.69 2010.2 Vx Vn 8 12 95.70 61.50 0.00 27.01 2037.3 Vx Vn 8 13 97.20 65.20 0.00 29.04 2066.3 Vx Vn 8 14 95.60 69.90 0.00 30.94 2097.2 Vx Vn 8 15 95.90 63.20 0.00 27.86 2125.1 Vx Vn 2ND GEN: 97% EGG HATCH, 3RD GEN: 35% MOTH FLIGHT 8 16 95.70 59.30 0.00 25.96 2151.1 Vx 8 17 91.20 59.40 0.00 24.86 2175.9 8 18 96.70 58.80 0.00 25.94 2201.9 Vx 3RD GEN: 13% EGG HATCH, 56% MOTH FLIGHT 8 19 88.60 57.20 0.00 22.86 2224.7 8 20 91.10 52.50 0.00 21.42 2246.2 8 21 93.10 52.40 0.00 21.97 2268.1 8 22 78.00 52.80 0.00 15.40 2283.5 8 23 82.00 50.10 0.00 16.05 2299.6 8 24 87.10 52.40 0.00 19.75 2319.3 Vx 3RD GEN: 56% EGG HATCH, 79% MOTH FLIGHT 8 25 88.40 50.20 0.00 19.28 2338.6 8 26 91.90 49.40 0.00 20.17 2358.8 8 27 91.80 60.70 0.00 25.68 2384.5 8 28 89.20 63.30 0.00 26.14 2410.6 Vx 8 29 94.40 54.60 0.00 23.39 2434.0 Vx 8 30 82.20 62.40 0.00 22.30 2456.3 8 31 85.00 55.50 0.00 20.25 2476.5 9 1 80.30 60.60 0.00 20.45 2497.0 9 2 76.40 55.50 0.00 15.95 2512.9 9 3 73.30 56.60 0.00 14.95 2527.9 9 4 76.10 46.70 0.00 11.87 2539.8 9 5 75.80 47.40 0.00 11.94 2551.7 Vx 9 6 64.60 54.50 0.00 9.55 2561.3 9 7 75.80 54.50 0.00 15.15 2576.4 9 8 77.10 57.70 0.00 17.40 2593.8 9 9 76.80 44.30 0.00 11.58 2605.4 9 10 85.10 45.10 0.00 15.84 2621.2 9 11 77.90 53.10 0.00 15.50 2636.7 Vx 9 12 75.20 42.90 0.00 10.50 2647.2 Vx 9 13 68.90 36.80 0.00 6.61 2653.8 9 14 76.40 44.70 0.00 11.49 2665.3 9 15 81.30 45.50 0.00 14.09 2679.4 9 16 85.70 46.90 0.00 16.67 2696.1 9 17 68.60 61.90 0.04 15.25 2711.3 9 18 73.00 56.80 0.00 14.90 2726.2 9 19 68.10 57.90 0.00 13.00 2739.2 Vx 9 20 67.00 48.00 0.00 7.78 2747.0 9 21 67.20 42.30 0.00 6.63 2753.6 Vx 9 22 56.80 47.20 0.00 2.66 2756.3 9 23 66.70 51.00 0.00 8.85 2765.1 9 24 70.10 52.20 0.00 11.15 2776.3 9 25 80.60 44.00 0.00 13.35 2789.6 9 26 82.90 46.30 0.00 15.10 2804.7 Vx 9 27 83.00 55.20 0.00 19.10 2823.8 9 28 75.00 49.00 0.00 12.08 2835.9 9 29 78.70 47.10 0.00 13.28 2849.2 9 30 74.40 49.90 0.00 12.15 2861.4 10 1 70.00 45.90 0.00 8.68 2870.0 10 2 66.10 38.30 0.00 5.58 2875.6 10 3 68.70 48.00 0.00 8.62 2884.2 10 4 66.30 43.70 0.06 6.45 2890.7 10 5 63.50 48.10 0.00 6.09 2896.8 10 6 64.80 51.10 0.00 7.95 2904.7 10 7 64.00 54.20 0.00 9.10 2913.8 Vx 10 8 72.50 48.60 0.00 10.69 2924.5 Vx 10 9 66.10 56.60 0.00 11.35 2935.9 10 10 61.80 48.80 0.04 5.46 2941.3 10 11 57.70 37.70 0.00 2.12 2943.4 10 12 56.60 29.60 0.00 1.42 2944.9 10 13 61.10 42.10 0.02 3.87 2948.7 10 14 68.80 49.10 0.04 9.03 2957.8 10 15 59.60 49.30 0.05 4.53 2962.3 10 16 64.00 49.00 0.00 6.61 2968.9 10 17 60.60 49.50 0.00 5.10 2974.0 Vx 10 18 59.00 46.10 0.00 3.49 2977.5 10 19 65.40 38.60 0.00 5.31 2982.8 10 20 68.10 55.50 0.06 11.80 2994.6 10 21 55.40 51.10 0.09 3.25 2997.9 10 22 60.40 40.60 0.00 3.41 3001.3 10 23 56.20 42.40 0.00 1.86 3003.1 10 24 59.90 43.60 0.00 3.53 3006.6 Vx 10 25 64.90 48.80 0.01 6.99 3013.6 10 26 55.10 52.10 0.00 3.60 3017.2 10 27 55.70 50.60 0.00 3.15 3020.4 Vx 10 28 48.00 42.10 0.00 0.00 3020.4 Vx 10 29 48.70 46.10 0.05 0.00 3020.4 10 30 48.40 44.70 0.07 0.00 3020.4 10 31 56.80 46.70 0.00 2.58 3023.0 Forecast using: 10 yr Hist Avg MF24585 2006-2015
codling moth revised 06 model - Knight 2006
Location: 2016 MF24585 Oliver Cherries OR
DateDDsEvent
 5-3-16 2321ST GENERATION: 1% EGG HATCH, 29% MOTH FLIGHT
 5-12-16 3541ST GENERATION: 3% EGG HATCH, 58% MOTH FLIGHT
 5-23-16 4631ST GENERATION: 10% EGG HATCH, 83% MOTH FLIGHT
 5-29-16 5371ST GENERATION: 20% EGG HATCH, 91% MOTH FLIGHT
 6-5-16 6641ST GENERATION: 50% EGG HATCH, 97% MOTH FLIGHT
 6-9-16 7631ST GENERATION: 75% EGG HATCH, 99% MOTH FLIGHT
 6-23-16 9391ST GEN: 95% EGG HATCH, 2ND GEN: 3% MOTH FLIGHT
 6-26-16 9872ND GENERATION: 5% MOTH FLIGHT
 7-3-16 11712ND GENERATION: 5% EGG HATCH, 18% MOTH FLIGHT
 7-20-16 15022ND GENERATION: 30% EGG HATCH, 74% MOTH FLIGHT
 7-25-16 16152ND GENERATION: 50% EGG HATCH, 89% MOTH FLIGHT
 7-30-16 17652ND GENERATION: 75% EGG HATCH, 96% MOTH FLIGHT
 8-8-16 19542ND GEN: 90% EGG HATCH, 3RD GEN: 7% MOTH FLIGHT
 8-15-16 21252ND GEN: 97% EGG HATCH, 3RD GEN: 35% MOTH FLIGHT
 8-18-16 22023RD GEN: 13% EGG HATCH, 56% MOTH FLIGHT
 8-24-16 23193RD GEN: 56% EGG HATCH, 79% MOTH FLIGHT
degree-day graph of codling moth revised 06 [apple & pear] Knight 2006