|
Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Knight 2007
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: first consistent capture of moths in pheromone traps
Starting/BIOFIX date: 4 1
Ending date: 10 31
Model validation status: actively undergoing evaluation
Region of known use: used in WA
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 220 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
2. 340 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
3. 460 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
4. 535 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5. 655 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6. 755 DDs after biofix: 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
7. 920 DDs after biofix: 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
8. 980 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
9. 1160 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
10. 1480 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
11. 1605 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
12. 1765 DDs after biofix: 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
13. 1940 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
14. 2120 DDs after biofix: 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
15. 2200 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
16. 2300 DDs after biofix: 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 MF22663 MILTON_FREEWATER_GROWERS Burlinggame Lefore OR Lat45.9592 Long:-118.3756 Elev:925
mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
4 10 75.20 48.70 0.00 12.07 12.1 * START *
4 11 78.80 47.80 0.00 13.55 25.6
4 12 67.70 50.80 0.02 9.25 34.9
4 13 63.10 48.40 0.00 5.98 40.8
4 14 64.90 42.50 0.01 5.61 46.5
4 15 67.20 44.70 0.00 7.07 53.5
4 16 71.50 40.10 0.00 8.24 61.8
4 17 79.00 38.80 0.00 11.49 73.3
4 18 79.00 40.50 0.00 11.81 85.1 Vx
4 19 84.30 47.60 0.00 16.21 101.3
4 20 87.30 46.40 0.00 17.31 118.6
4 21 79.80 53.70 0.00 16.75 135.3
4 22 75.10 54.60 0.01 14.85 150.2
4 23 71.70 52.80 0.00 12.25 162.4
4 24 66.20 49.20 0.00 7.77 170.2
4 25 64.60 42.40 0.00 5.46 175.7 Vx
4 26 65.40 43.00 0.00 5.92 181.6
4 27 60.70 47.70 0.01 4.62 186.2
4 28 71.70 49.50 0.00 10.63 196.8
4 29 58.40 48.30 0.03 3.65 200.5
4 30 68.30 47.60 0.01 8.30 208.8
5 1 77.70 42.90 0.00 11.69 220.5 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight
5 2 84.70 45.80 0.00 15.84 236.3 Vx
5 3 88.40 64.80 0.00 26.58 262.9
5 4 77.30 58.70 0.00 18.00 280.9
5 5 69.10 45.80 0.00 8.22 289.1 Hx Hn
5 6 77.70 51.50 0.01 14.60 303.7
5 7 83.70 52.70 0.00 18.20 321.9
5 8 78.70 58.70 0.00 18.70 340.6 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight
5 9 65.30 47.50 0.00 6.80 347.4 Vx
5 10 73.80 40.70 0.00 9.41 356.8
5 11 81.10 46.20 0.00 14.19 371.0 Vx Vn
5 12 86.50 62.10 0.00 24.30 395.3
5 13 82.90 47.60 0.00 15.52 410.8
5 14 67.50 52.70 0.08 10.10 420.9
5 15 59.20 50.90 0.09 5.05 426.0
5 16 70.10 51.60 0.03 10.85 436.8
5 17 77.90 49.90 0.00 13.90 450.7
5 18 83.30 56.40 0.00 19.85 470.6 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight
5 19 68.80 49.20 0.00 9.07 479.7
5 20 61.20 40.90 0.00 3.77 483.4
5 21 64.10 46.00 0.02 5.87 489.3
5 22 69.10 50.80 0.00 9.95 499.2
5 23 72.00 51.20 0.00 11.60 510.8
5 24 71.90 50.20 0.00 11.05 521.9
5 25 77.70 48.60 0.00 13.28 535.2 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight
5 26 70.50 51.20 0.00 10.85 546.0
5 27 68.30 50.50 0.00 9.40 555.4
5 28 76.30 48.80 0.00 12.66 568.1
5 29 78.70 55.30 0.00 17.00 585.1
5 30 75.90 50.60 0.00 13.25 598.3 Vx
5 31 84.40 46.70 0.00 15.97 614.3 Vx
6 1 84.00 52.30 0.00 18.15 632.4
6 2 75.70 62.00 0.00 18.85 651.3
6 3 85.80 57.70 0.00 21.75 673.0 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight
6 4 92.60 51.70 0.00 21.49 694.5
6 5 92.90 56.40 0.00 23.88 718.4
6 6 99.00 65.60 0.00 29.52 747.9 Vx
6 7 97.00 65.70 0.00 29.24 777.2 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight
6 8 86.50 66.90 0.00 26.70 803.9
6 9 76.90 58.20 0.00 17.55 821.4
6 10 70.50 52.70 0.04 11.60 833.0
6 11 74.00 48.90 0.00 11.55 844.6
6 12 79.50 46.50 0.00 13.49 858.1
6 13 74.70 54.30 0.00 14.50 872.6 Vx
6 14 70.00 50.40 0.00 10.20 882.8
6 15 69.00 48.30 0.00 8.86 891.6
6 16 67.90 47.00 0.02 7.94 899.6
6 17 77.10 46.60 0.00 12.34 911.9
6 18 59.00 54.70 0.07 6.85 918.7
6 19 73.40 46.80 0.00 10.58 929.3 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight
6 20 79.60 47.20 0.00 13.75 943.1
6 21 80.70 58.40 0.00 19.55 962.6
6 22 85.80 50.10 0.00 17.95 980.6 2nd generation: 5% moth flight
6 23 81.10 58.70 0.00 19.90 1000.5
6 24 74.50 54.20 0.01 14.35 1014.8
6 25 80.70 49.90 0.00 15.30 1030.1
6 26 90.80 49.20 0.00 19.74 1049.9
6 27 93.30 56.90 0.00 24.23 1074.1 Vx
6 28 86.00 64.60 0.02 25.30 1099.4
6 29 94.40 66.20 0.00 28.97 1128.4 Vx
6 30 91.80 66.20 0.00 28.37 1156.7 Vx Vn
7 1 88.90 60.50 0.00 24.63 1181.4 Vx 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight
7 2 89.90 62.70 0.00 26.09 1207.4 Vx
7 3 85.40 67.00 0.00 26.20 1233.6 Vx
7 4 80.30 57.30 0.00 18.80 1252.4 Vx Vn
7 5 78.70 55.00 0.00 16.85 1269.3
7 6 80.70 61.00 0.00 20.85 1290.1
7 7 81.30 56.80 0.00 19.05 1309.2 Vx
7 8 77.70 59.70 0.16 18.70 1327.9 Vx
7 9 77.70 57.60 0.07 17.65 1345.5
7 10 67.80 57.30 0.00 12.55 1358.1
7 11 80.50 58.70 0.00 19.60 1377.7 Vx Vn
7 12 80.00 56.80 0.01 18.40 1396.1
7 13 83.70 57.10 0.00 20.40 1416.5
7 14 89.60 57.60 0.00 23.45 1439.9 Vx
7 15 81.20 56.90 0.00 19.05 1459.0 Vx
7 16 83.50 58.50 0.00 21.00 1480.0 Vx
7 17 87.80 59.80 0.00 23.80 1503.8 Vx 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight
7 18 80.60 59.70 0.00 20.15 1523.9 Vx
7 19 80.00 60.00 0.00 20.00 1543.9
7 20 87.40 61.70 0.00 24.55 1568.5 Vx
7 21 95.10 55.60 0.00 24.05 1592.5 Vx
7 22 82.80 63.30 0.00 23.05 1615.6 Vx 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight
7 23 83.90 57.00 0.00 20.45 1636.0 Vx
7 24 90.00 56.20 0.00 22.89 1658.9 Vx
7 25 96.60 63.60 0.00 28.18 1687.1 Vx
7 26 95.20 71.40 0.00 31.56 1718.7 Vx
7 27 95.00 69.20 0.00 30.51 1749.2 Vx Vn
7 28 99.10 67.70 0.00 30.49 1779.7 Vx 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight
7 29 101.50 69.60 0.00 31.64 1811.3 Vx
7 30 94.50 71.70 0.00 31.58 1842.9 Vx Vn
7 31 86.50 59.70 0.00 23.10 1866.0
8 1 90.70 57.30 0.00 23.67 1889.7 Vx Vn
8 2 78.70 62.60 0.00 20.65 1910.3
8 3 83.70 56.60 0.00 20.15 1930.5 Vx
8 4 92.80 55.40 0.00 23.36 1953.8 Vx Vn 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight
8 5 93.50 60.80 0.00 26.18 1980.0 Vx
8 6 88.40 63.80 0.00 26.08 2006.1
8 7 82.80 62.10 0.00 22.45 2028.5 Vx
8 8 77.50 53.90 0.00 15.70 2044.2 Vx
8 9 74.00 56.00 0.02 15.00 2059.2
8 10 84.00 56.00 0.00 20.00 2079.2 Vx
8 11 90.00 57.50 0.00 23.54 2102.8 Vx Vn
8 12 95.50 56.00 0.00 24.33 2127.1 Vx 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight
8 13 97.00 65.10 0.00 28.96 2156.1 Vx Vn
8 14 95.50 69.80 0.00 30.87 2186.9 Vx Vn
8 15 95.70 63.30 0.00 27.87 2214.8 Vx Vn 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight
8 16 95.40 61.20 0.06 26.81 2241.6 Vx
8 17 94.90 62.80 0.04 27.46 2269.1 Vx
8 18 96.40 65.90 0.00 29.22 2298.3 Vx
8 19 86.20 60.40 0.02 23.30 2321.6 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight
8 20 81.20 57.90 0.09 19.55 2341.1
8 21 94.40 59.70 0.00 25.86 2367.0
8 22 78.60 56.00 0.00 17.30 2384.3
8 23 82.90 52.50 0.00 17.70 2402.0
8 24 86.90 58.60 0.00 22.75 2424.7 Vx
8 25 89.10 53.60 0.00 21.27 2446.0
8 26 91.20 57.20 0.00 23.78 2469.8
8 27 89.40 67.80 0.00 28.45 2498.2
8 28 89.00 64.00 0.04 26.41 2524.7 Vx
8 29 94.20 57.00 0.00 24.51 2549.2 Vx
8 30 79.70 62.40 0.00 21.05 2570.2
8 31 84.70 58.00 0.00 21.35 2591.6
9 1 78.20 60.60 0.00 19.40 2611.0
9 2 74.60 55.30 0.00 14.95 2625.9
9 3 72.90 56.70 0.00 14.80 2640.7
9 4 76.00 47.90 0.00 12.20 2652.9
9 5 74.60 49.90 0.00 12.25 2665.2 Vx
9 6 63.70 55.50 0.03 9.60 2674.8
9 7 78.70 56.10 0.00 17.40 2692.2
9 8 79.50 58.90 0.00 19.20 2711.4
9 9 79.30 47.40 0.00 13.67 2725.0
9 10 88.90 49.40 0.00 19.12 2744.2
9 11 77.50 57.80 0.00 17.65 2761.8
9 12 75.00 44.20 0.00 10.69 2772.5 Vx
9 13 70.80 42.10 0.00 8.26 2780.8
9 14 80.90 47.30 0.00 14.43 2795.2
9 15 83.20 50.10 0.00 16.65 2811.8
9 16 88.80 54.60 0.00 21.65 2833.5
9 17 70.60 62.70 0.01 16.65 2850.1
9 18 72.30 59.40 0.00 15.85 2866.0
9 19 67.90 58.30 0.00 13.10 2879.1 Vx
9 20 68.90 49.50 0.00 9.23 2888.3
9 21 64.70 44.40 0.00 5.84 2894.2
9 22 58.00 49.20 0.00 3.70 2897.9
9 23 67.10 51.70 0.00 9.40 2907.3
9 24 71.20 51.70 0.00 11.45 2918.7
9 25 83.00 48.50 0.00 15.88 2934.6
9 26 82.40 48.70 0.00 15.66 2950.2 Vx
9 27 86.40 59.70 0.00 23.05 2973.3
9 28 75.60 51.50 0.00 13.55 2986.8
9 29 78.50 50.20 0.00 14.35 3001.2
9 30 73.50 51.40 0.00 12.45 3013.6
10 1 71.00 47.20 0.00 9.51 3023.2
10 2 67.70 43.70 0.00 7.11 3030.3
10 3 68.00 46.90 0.00 7.96 3038.2
10 4 67.70 47.30 0.07 7.92 3046.2
10 5 64.60 49.70 0.00 7.17 3053.3
10 6 65.50 52.00 0.00 8.75 3062.1
10 7 63.80 56.00 0.00 9.90 3072.0 Vx
10 8 72.60 50.80 0.00 11.70 3083.7 Vx
10 9 66.40 57.10 0.00 11.75 3095.4
10 10 61.40 47.90 0.07 5.01 3100.4
10 11 56.80 38.50 0.00 1.83 3102.3
10 12 57.10 30.90 0.00 1.62 3103.9
10 13 61.90 44.20 0.02 4.51 3108.4
10 14 67.60 51.00 0.03 9.30 3117.7
10 15 60.00 50.20 0.03 5.10 3122.8
10 16 64.30 49.10 0.00 6.79 3129.6
10 17 61.10 48.80 0.00 5.11 3134.7 Vx
10 18 59.90 48.00 0.00 4.30 3139.0
10 19 65.00 40.80 0.00 5.41 3144.4
10 20 68.00 55.40 0.07 11.70 3156.1
10 21 56.60 51.40 0.09 4.00 3160.1
10 22 60.60 42.90 0.00 3.75 3163.9
10 23 55.70 42.40 0.00 1.66 3165.5
10 24 60.20 43.30 0.00 3.62 3169.1 Vx
10 25 65.50 50.00 0.03 7.75 3176.9
10 26 54.80 52.50 0.01 3.65 3180.5
10 27 55.60 51.00 0.01 3.30 3183.8 Vx
10 28 48.40 45.70 0.00 0.00 3183.8 Vx
10 29 48.50 44.80 0.09 0.00 3183.8
10 30 48.70 44.30 0.06 0.00 3183.8
10 31 57.30 46.60 0.00 2.79 3186.6
Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 MF22663 PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021
codling moth revised 07 model - Knight 2007Location: 2016 MF22663 Burlinggame Lefore OR Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME | Date | DDs | Event |
| 5-1-16 | 220 | 1st generation: 1% egg hatch, 29% moth flight |
| 5-8-16 | 341 | 1st generation: 3% egg hatch, 58% moth flight |
| 5-18-16 | 471 | 1st generation: 10% egg hatch, 83% moth flight |
| 5-25-16 | 535 | 1st generation: 20% egg hatch, 91% moth flight |
| 6-3-16 | 673 | 1st generation: 50% egg hatch, 97% moth flight |
| 6-7-16 | 777 | 1st generation: 75% egg hatch, 99% moth flight |
| 6-19-16 | 929 | 1st gen: 95% egg hatch, 2nd gen: 3% moth flight |
| 6-22-16 | 981 | 2nd generation: 5% moth flight |
| 7-1-16 | 1181 | 2nd generation: 5% egg hatch, 18% moth flight |
| 7-17-16 | 1504 | 2nd generation: 30% egg hatch, 74% moth flight |
| 7-22-16 | 1616 | 2nd generation: 50% egg hatch, 89% moth flight |
| 7-28-16 | 1780 | 2nd generation: 75% egg hatch, 96% moth flight |
| 8-4-16 | 1954 | 2nd gen: 90% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 7% moth flight |
| 8-12-16 | 2127 | 2nd gen: 97% egg hatch, 3rd gen: 35% moth flight |
| 8-15-16 | 2215 | 3rd gen: 13% egg hatch, 56% moth flight |
| 8-19-16 | 2322 | 3rd gen: 56% egg hatch, 79% moth flight |
![degree-day graph of codling moth revised 07 [apple & pear] Knight 2007](/cgi-bin/ddplotj.pl?305684)
