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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: walnut husk fly [walnut]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Kasana & AliNiazee 1997
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Setting upper threshold to: 130 F (default)
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 3 1
Ending date: 12 0
Model validation status: developed but not calibrated or validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest-W. of Cascades
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 1890 DDs after biofix: First adult emergence
2. 2219 DDs after biofix: Mature females
3. 2480 DDs after biofix: First oviposition
4. 2700 DDs after biofix: First eggs hatch/first larvae
5. 2831 DDs after biofix: 25% adult emergence
6. 3152 DDs after biofix: 50% adult emergence
7. 3461 DDs after biofix: First larvae exit husks
8. 3956 DDs after biofix: 100% adult emergence
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2016 KDVT METAR Phoenix-Deer Val Muni AZ Lat:33.6903 Long:-112.0661 Elev:1486
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
3 1 84.00 55.00 0.00 28.50 28.5 * START *
3 2 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 56.5
3 3 86.00 55.90 0.00 29.95 86.5
3 4 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 116.0
3 5 79.00 55.90 0.00 26.45 142.4
3 6 75.90 61.00 0.00 27.45 169.9
3 7 66.90 46.00 0.00 15.45 185.3
3 8 70.00 46.90 0.00 17.45 202.8
3 9 77.00 46.90 0.00 20.95 223.7
3 10 82.90 54.00 0.00 27.45 251.1
3 11 82.90 53.10 0.00 27.00 278.1
3 12 69.10 50.00 0.00 18.55 296.7
3 13 73.90 48.90 0.00 20.40 317.1
3 14 75.90 50.00 0.00 21.95 339.1
3 15 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 367.1
3 16 84.90 53.10 0.00 28.00 395.1
3 17 84.90 54.00 0.00 28.45 423.5
3 18 87.10 51.10 0.00 28.10 451.6
3 19 87.10 53.10 0.00 29.10 480.7
3 20 88.00 55.90 0.00 30.95 511.7
3 21 89.10 57.90 0.00 32.50 544.2
3 22 79.00 60.10 0.00 28.55 572.7
3 23 75.00 55.90 0.00 24.45 597.2
3 24 78.10 46.90 0.00 21.50 618.7
3 25 82.00 51.10 0.00 25.55 644.2
3 26 84.90 55.00 0.00 28.95 673.2
3 27 82.90 55.90 0.00 28.40 701.6
3 28 79.00 57.00 0.00 27.00 728.6
3 29 66.90 51.10 0.00 18.00 746.6
3 30 66.00 46.00 0.00 15.00 761.6
3 31 72.00 48.90 0.00 19.45 781.0
4 1 77.00 51.10 0.00 23.05 804.1
4 2 82.00 54.00 0.00 27.00 831.1
4 3 87.10 55.00 0.00 30.05 861.1
4 4 89.10 55.90 0.00 31.50 892.6
4 5 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.50 925.1
4 6 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 963.6
4 7 88.00 66.90 0.53 36.45 1000.1
4 8 78.10 60.10 0.37 28.10 1028.2
4 9 79.00 61.00 0.00 29.00 1057.2
4 10 69.10 54.00 0.35 20.55 1077.7
4 11 75.00 52.00 0.00 22.50 1100.2
4 12 80.10 55.90 0.00 27.00 1127.2
4 13 84.00 59.00 0.00 30.50 1157.7
4 14 87.10 60.10 0.00 32.60 1190.3
4 15 82.00 60.10 0.00 30.05 1220.3
4 16 79.00 53.10 0.00 25.05 1245.4
4 17 81.00 60.10 0.00 29.55 1274.9
4 18 84.00 57.00 0.00 29.50 1304.4
4 19 88.00 61.00 0.00 33.50 1337.9
4 20 91.90 60.10 0.00 35.00 1372.9
4 21 93.90 63.00 0.00 37.45 1410.4
4 22 93.00 66.00 0.00 38.50 1448.9
4 23 86.00 66.00 0.00 35.00 1483.9
4 24 84.90 55.90 0.00 29.40 1513.3
4 25 79.00 64.90 0.00 30.95 1544.2
4 26 75.00 54.00 0.00 23.50 1567.8
4 27 80.10 54.00 0.00 26.05 1593.8
4 28 73.90 60.10 0.00 26.00 1619.8
4 29 79.00 62.10 0.00 29.55 1649.3
4 30 77.00 57.90 0.02 26.45 1675.8
5 1 77.00 55.00 0.00 25.00 1700.8
5 2 84.00 60.10 0.00 31.05 1731.8
5 3 91.90 63.00 0.00 36.45 1768.3
5 4 100.00 66.90 0.00 42.45 1810.8
5 5 95.00 66.00 0.00 39.50 1850.2
5 6 75.90 57.90 0.02 25.90 1876.2
5 7 75.90 57.00 0.00 25.45 1901.6 First adult emergence
5 8 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 1929.6
5 9 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 1958.6
5 10 88.00 60.10 0.00 33.05 1991.6
5 11 91.90 64.00 0.00 36.95 2028.6
5 12 99.00 69.10 0.00 43.05 2071.6
5 13 100.00 66.90 0.00 42.45 2114.1
5 14 98.10 71.10 0.00 43.60 2157.7
5 15 91.00 70.00 0.00 39.50 2197.2
5 16 89.10 66.90 0.00 37.00 2234.2 Mature females
5 17 87.10 66.90 0.00 36.00 2270.2
5 18 84.90 66.90 0.01 34.90 2305.1
5 19 91.00 64.90 0.00 36.95 2342.0
5 20 96.10 68.00 0.00 41.05 2383.1
5 21 89.10 66.00 0.00 36.55 2419.6
5 22 86.00 63.00 0.00 33.50 2453.1
5 23 87.10 57.00 0.00 31.05 2484.2 First oviposition
5 24 88.00 64.90 0.00 35.45 2519.6
5 25 88.00 57.90 0.00 31.95 2551.6
5 26 82.90 61.00 0.00 30.95 2582.5
5 27 90.00 60.10 0.00 34.05 2616.6
5 28 95.00 64.00 0.00 38.50 2655.1
5 29 95.00 66.00 0.00 39.50 2694.6
5 30 91.00 61.00 0.00 35.00 2729.6 First eggs hatch/first larvae
5 31 97.00 64.00 0.00 39.50 2769.1
6 1 100.00 69.10 0.00 43.55 2812.6
6 2 106.00 70.00 0.00 47.00 2859.6 25% adult emergence
6 3 111.00 73.90 0.00 51.45 2911.1
6 4 111.90 77.00 0.00 53.45 2964.5
6 5 111.00 75.00 0.00 52.00 3016.5
6 6 107.10 75.90 0.00 50.50 3067.0
6 7 102.90 80.10 0.00 50.50 3117.5
6 8 104.00 75.00 0.00 48.50 3166.0 50% adult emergence
6 9 102.00 80.10 0.00 50.05 3216.1
6 10 98.10 78.10 0.02 47.10 3263.2
6 11 97.00 73.90 0.00 44.45 3307.6
6 12 99.00 71.10 0.00 44.05 3351.7
6 13 96.10 73.90 0.00 44.00 3395.7
6 14 97.00 68.00 0.00 41.50 3437.2
6 15 98.10 69.10 0.00 42.60 3479.8 First larvae exit husks
6 16 99.00 73.00 0.00 45.00 3524.8
6 17 102.00 69.10 0.00 44.55 3569.3
6 18 109.00 75.90 0.00 51.45 3620.8
6 19 117.00 77.00 0.00 56.00 3676.8
6 20 113.00 87.10 0.00 59.05 3735.8
6 21 107.10 87.10 0.00 56.10 3791.9
6 22 109.00 86.00 0.00 56.50 3848.4
6 23 109.00 82.90 0.00 54.95 3903.3
6 24 106.00 82.90 0.00 53.45 3956.8 100% adult emergence
6 25 106.00 79.00 0.00 51.50 4008.3
6 26 102.90 84.90 0.00 52.90 4061.2
6 27 107.10 88.00 0.01 56.55 4117.8
6 28 109.90 91.00 0.00 59.45 4177.2
6 29 105.80 77.00 0.07 50.40 4227.6
6 30 94.00 75.00 0.03 43.50 4271.1
7 1 95.00 78.80 0.12 45.90 4317.0
7 2 100.90 80.10 0.00 49.50 4366.5
7 3 105.80 82.00 0.00 52.90 4419.4
7 4 107.60 80.60 0.00 53.10 4472.5
7 5 107.10 84.00 0.00 54.55 4527.0
7 6 104.00 80.60 0.00 51.30 4578.3
7 7 102.90 80.10 0.00 50.50 4628.8
7 8 106.00 77.00 0.00 50.50 4679.3
7 9 108.00 78.80 0.00 52.40 4731.7
7 10 109.40 82.40 0.00 54.90 4786.6
7 11 106.00 78.10 0.00 51.05 4837.7
7 12 106.00 73.40 0.00 48.70 4886.4
7 13 106.00 78.10 0.00 51.05 4937.4
7 14 109.40 84.00 0.00 55.70 4993.1
7 15 109.40 80.10 0.00 53.75 5046.9
7 16 106.00 87.10 0.00 55.55 5102.4
7 17 102.20 84.20 0.02 52.20 5154.6
7 18 104.00 78.80 0.01 50.40 5205.0
7 19 106.00 86.00 0.00 55.00 5260.0
7 20 105.80 84.20 0.00 54.00 5314.0
7 21 109.90 87.10 0.00 57.50 5371.5
7 22 111.20 89.60 0.00 59.40 5430.9
7 23 109.90 87.10 0.00 57.50 5488.4
7 24 107.60 87.80 0.00 56.70 5545.1
7 25 107.60 86.00 0.00 55.80 5600.9
7 26 109.40 86.00 0.00 56.70 5657.6
7 27 111.90 87.80 0.00 58.85 5716.5
7 28 109.40 89.10 0.00 58.25 5774.7
7 29 109.90 80.10 0.04 54.00 5828.7
7 30 100.90 80.10 0.00 49.50 5878.2
7 31 102.00 82.00 0.00 51.00 5929.2
8 1 98.10 80.10 0.00 48.10 5977.3
8 2 97.00 75.20 0.14 45.10 6022.4
8 3 96.80 79.00 0.02 46.90 6069.3
8 4 99.00 80.60 0.00 48.80 6118.1
8 5 96.80 71.60 0.67 43.20 6161.3
8 6 104.00 78.80 0.00 50.40 6211.7
8 7 106.00 84.00 0.00 54.00 6265.7
8 8 107.60 82.00 0.00 53.80 6319.5
8 9 95.00 79.00 0.04 46.00 6365.5
8 10 99.00 78.80 0.01 47.90 6413.4
8 11 97.00 80.10 0.00 47.55 6461.0
8 12 105.80 84.00 0.00 53.90 6514.9
8 13 106.00 80.10 0.00 52.05 6566.9
8 14 102.90 82.40 0.00 51.65 6618.6
8 15 107.60 87.10 0.00 56.35 6674.9
8 16 109.90 86.00 0.00 56.95 6731.9
8 17 106.00 87.80 0.01 55.90 6787.8
8 18 102.20 80.10 0.01 50.15 6837.9
8 19 102.20 77.00 0.03 48.60 6886.5
8 20 98.60 75.20 0.11 45.90 6932.4
8 21 98.60 77.00 0.00 46.80 6979.2
8 22 98.60 77.00 0.24 46.80 7026.0
8 23 91.90 71.10 0.13 40.50 7066.5
8 24 100.90 73.40 0.00 46.15 7112.7
8 25 100.40 77.00 0.09 47.70 7160.4
8 26 95.00 73.00 0.07 43.00 7203.4
8 27 95.00 73.00 0.01 43.00 7246.4
8 28 97.00 73.40 0.00 44.20 7290.6
8 29 104.00 75.90 0.00 48.95 7339.5
8 30 105.80 81.00 0.00 52.40 7391.9
8 31 102.90 82.40 0.00 51.65 7443.6
9 1 100.90 84.00 0.00 51.45 7495.0
9 2 100.90 82.00 0.00 50.45 7545.5
9 3 102.20 80.60 0.00 50.40 7595.9
9 4 98.60 75.00 0.00 45.80 7641.7
9 5 98.60 69.80 0.00 43.20 7684.9
9 6 97.00 71.10 0.00 43.05 7727.9
9 7 89.60 75.20 0.03 41.40 7769.3
9 8 93.90 73.40 0.00 42.65 7812.0
9 9 100.90 73.40 0.00 46.15 7858.1
9 10 102.20 75.20 0.00 47.70 7905.8
9 11 102.20 77.00 0.00 48.60 7954.4
9 12 97.00 80.60 0.00 47.80 8002.2
9 13 96.80 78.10 0.00 46.45 8048.7
9 14 95.00 71.60 0.00 42.30 8091.0
9 15 93.90 66.00 0.00 38.95 8129.9
9 16 93.90 64.00 0.00 37.95 8167.9
9 17 97.00 66.20 0.00 40.60 8208.5
9 18 102.20 71.10 0.00 45.65 8254.1
9 19 98.60 71.10 0.01 43.85 8298.0
9 20 86.00 78.80 0.04 41.40 8339.4
9 21 95.00 75.20 0.00 44.10 8383.5
9 22 82.40 71.60 0.08 36.00 8419.5
9 23 84.90 64.40 0.00 33.65 8453.1
9 24 88.00 59.00 0.00 32.50 8485.6
9 25 95.00 69.10 0.00 41.05 8526.7
9 26 90.00 77.00 0.00 42.50 8569.2
9 27 87.10 71.60 0.00 38.35 8607.5
9 28 95.00 73.40 0.00 43.20 8650.7
9 29 91.90 75.20 0.01 42.55 8693.3
9 30 93.90 71.10 0.00 41.50 8734.8
10 1 93.90 72.00 0.00 41.95 8776.7
10 2 81.00 69.10 0.21 34.05 8810.8
10 3 82.90 64.40 0.00 32.65 8843.4
10 4 82.90 57.20 0.00 29.05 8872.5
10 5 86.00 57.20 0.00 30.60 8903.1
10 6 87.80 61.00 0.00 33.40 8936.5
10 7 93.90 64.00 0.00 37.95 8974.4
10 8 93.90 73.40 0.00 42.65 9017.1
10 9 93.90 73.00 0.00 42.45 9059.5
10 10 93.20 69.80 0.00 40.50 9100.0
10 11 93.20 66.00 0.00 38.60 9138.6
10 12 91.40 64.00 0.00 36.70 9175.3
10 13 90.00 62.10 0.00 35.05 9210.4
10 14 93.20 63.00 0.00 37.10 9247.5
10 15 91.90 62.60 0.00 36.25 9283.7
10 16 89.60 62.60 0.00 35.10 9318.8
10 17 87.80 62.60 0.00 34.20 9353.0
10 18 87.80 62.10 0.00 33.95 9387.0
10 19 91.00 62.10 0.00 35.55 9422.5
10 20 95.00 66.20 0.00 39.60 9462.1
10 21 93.90 73.40 0.00 42.65 9504.8
10 22 95.00 69.10 0.00 41.05 9545.8
10 23 93.20 64.40 0.00 37.80 9583.6
10 24 88.00 69.10 0.00 37.55 9621.2
10 25 88.00 69.10 0.00 37.55 9658.7
10 26 93.20 66.00 0.00 38.60 9697.3
10 27 96.80 71.60 0.00 43.20 9740.5
10 28 90.00 71.60 0.00 39.80 9780.3
10 29 91.90 66.20 0.00 38.05 9818.4
10 30 89.60 66.90 0.00 37.25 9855.6
10 31 82.90 64.40 0.00 32.65 9888.3
11 1 78.10 60.10 0.00 28.10 9916.4
11 2 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 9945.1
11 3 82.40 62.10 0.25 31.25 9976.3
11 4 78.80 57.20 0.00 27.00 10003.3
11 5 79.00 59.00 0.00 28.00 10031.3
11 6 81.00 57.00 0.00 28.00 10059.3
11 7 84.20 59.00 0.00 30.60 10089.9
11 8 88.00 64.40 0.00 35.20 10125.1
11 9 84.20 66.20 0.00 34.20 10159.3
11 10 82.00 62.60 0.00 31.30 10190.6
11 11 81.00 62.60 0.00 30.80 10221.4
11 12 81.00 60.80 0.00 29.90 10251.3
11 13 82.40 60.10 0.00 30.25 10281.6
11 14 82.90 57.00 0.00 28.95 10310.5
11 15 84.20 55.00 0.00 28.60 10339.1
11 16 77.00 57.00 0.00 26.00 10365.1
11 17 71.60 53.10 0.00 21.35 10386.5
11 18 73.90 46.40 0.00 19.15 10405.6
11 19 82.40 57.00 0.00 28.70 10434.3
11 20 75.20 60.10 0.17 26.65 10461.0
11 21 66.20 51.80 0.02 18.00 10479.0
11 22 68.00 46.00 0.00 16.00 10495.0
11 23 73.40 48.20 0.00 19.80 10514.8
11 24 77.00 48.90 0.00 21.95 10536.7
11 25 79.00 51.10 0.00 24.05 10560.8
11 26 71.60 59.00 0.00 24.30 10585.1
11 27 61.00 46.00 0.26 12.50 10597.6
11 28 54.00 44.10 0.00 8.05 10605.6
11 29 57.90 39.20 0.00 7.79 10613.4
11 30 60.10 39.00 0.00 8.81 10622.3
Forecast using: 1910 KDVT PRISM_rev1_4km 2006-2015 AVERAGES Lat33.6903 Long-112.0661 DD50
walnut husk fly model - Kasana & AliNiazee 1997Location: 2016 KDVT Phoenix-Deer Val Muni 1910 KDVT PRISM_rev1_4km 2006-2015 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
5-7-16 | 1902 | First adult emergence |
5-16-16 | 2234 | Mature females |
5-23-16 | 2484 | First oviposition |
5-30-16 | 2730 | First eggs hatch/first larvae |
6-2-16 | 2860 | 25% adult emergence |
6-8-16 | 3166 | 50% adult emergence |
6-15-16 | 3480 | First larvae exit husks |
6-24-16 | 3957 | 100% adult emergence |