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Output from uspest.org/wea insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: variegated cutworm [peppermint]
Type: insect
Model source/other links: Coop & Berry 1987
Calculation method: single sine
Lower threshold: 41 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 5 1
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: partly validated
Region of known use: Pacific Northwest
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 500 DDs after biofix: Peak overwintering generation
2. 900 DDs after biofix: Peak egg laying in peppermint
3. 1150 DDs after biofix: Peak 1st instar larvae
4. 1300 DDs after biofix: End of moth flight overwintering generation
5. 1450 DDs after biofix: Peak 3rd instar larvae
6. 1900 DDs after biofix: Peak 5th instar larvae
7. 2100 DDs after biofix: Peak pupation
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 D1375 APRSWXNET Coker DW1375 AL Lat33.2369 Long:-87.6869 Elev:190
mn day max min precip DD41 CUMDD41 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
5 1 77.00 52.00 0.00 23.50 23.5 * START *
5 2 83.00 45.00 0.00 23.00 46.5
5 3 84.00 51.00 0.00 26.50 73.0
5 4 64.00 49.00 0.00 15.50 88.5
5 5 62.00 48.00 0.00 14.00 102.5
5 6 78.00 41.00 0.00 18.50 121.0
5 7 77.00 48.00 0.00 21.50 142.5
5 8 83.00 45.00 0.00 23.00 165.5
5 9 89.00 50.00 0.00 28.43 193.9
5 10 90.00 57.00 0.00 32.29 226.2
5 11 84.00 59.00 0.00 30.50 256.7
5 12 76.00 62.00 0.00 28.00 284.7
5 13 74.00 60.00 0.00 26.00 310.7
5 14 82.00 50.00 0.00 25.00 335.7
5 15 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 364.7
5 16 88.00 56.00 0.00 31.00 395.7
5 17 87.00 60.00 0.00 32.50 428.2
5 18 89.00 71.00 0.00 38.90 467.1
5 19 92.00 64.00 0.00 36.35 503.5 Peak overwintering generation
5 20 89.00 65.00 0.00 35.91 539.4
5 21 80.00 68.00 0.00 33.00 572.4
5 22 80.00 66.00 0.00 32.00 604.4
5 23 73.00 66.00 0.00 28.50 632.9
5 24 71.00 57.00 0.00 23.00 655.9
5 25 76.00 52.00 0.00 23.00 678.9
5 26 88.00 52.00 0.00 29.00 707.9
5 27 87.00 63.00 0.00 34.00 741.9
5 28 84.00 65.00 0.00 33.50 775.4
5 29 83.00 68.00 0.00 34.50 809.9
5 30 83.00 68.00 0.00 34.50 844.4
5 31 85.00 66.00 0.00 34.50 878.9
6 1 83.00 64.00 0.00 32.50 911.4 Peak egg laying in peppermint
6 2 83.00 68.00 0.00 34.50 945.9
6 3 83.00 65.00 0.00 33.00 978.9
6 4 84.00 71.00 0.00 36.50 1015.4
6 5 82.00 71.00 0.00 35.50 1050.9
6 6 77.00 70.00 0.00 32.50 1083.4
6 7 83.00 64.00 0.00 32.50 1115.9
6 8 82.00 55.00 0.00 27.50 1143.4
6 9 86.00 55.00 0.00 29.50 1172.9 Peak 1st instar larvae
6 10 91.00 58.00 0.00 33.11 1206.0
6 11 94.00 63.00 0.00 36.36 1242.4
6 12 92.00 69.00 0.00 38.78 1281.1
6 13 90.00 67.00 0.00 37.25 1318.4 End of moth flight overwintering generation
6 14 90.00 69.00 0.00 38.24 1356.6
6 15 93.00 68.00 0.00 38.53 1395.1
6 16 88.00 66.00 0.00 36.00 1431.1
6 17 91.00 64.00 0.00 36.07 1467.2 Peak 3rd instar larvae
6 18 89.00 71.00 0.00 38.90 1506.1
6 19 87.00 70.00 0.00 37.50 1543.6
6 20 84.00 71.00 0.00 36.50 1580.1
6 21 74.00 71.00 0.00 31.50 1611.6
6 22 79.00 73.00 0.00 35.00 1646.6
6 23 85.00 73.00 0.00 38.00 1684.6
6 24 87.00 71.00 0.00 38.00 1722.6
6 25 80.00 63.00 0.00 30.50 1753.1
6 26 87.00 57.00 0.00 31.00 1784.1
6 27 87.00 63.00 0.00 34.00 1818.1
6 28 91.00 62.00 0.00 35.09 1853.2
6 29 80.00 72.00 0.00 35.00 1888.2
6 30 86.00 71.00 0.00 37.50 1925.7 Peak 5th instar larvae
Forecast using: 1910 D1375 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat33.2369 Long-87.6869 DD50
variegated cutworm model - Coop & Berry 1987Location: 2017 D1375 Coker DW1375 AL 1910 D1375 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Date | DDs | Event |
5-19-17 | 503 | Peak overwintering generation |
6-1-17 | 911 | Peak egg laying in peppermint |
6-9-17 | 1173 | Peak 1st instar larvae |
6-13-17 | 1318 | End of moth flight overwintering generation |
6-17-17 | 1467 | Peak 3rd instar larvae |
6-30-17 | 1926 | Peak 5th instar larvae |
4-29-17 | 2126 | Peak pupation |