Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program:
Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================
Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosoph overwint mortal [fruit]
Type: invasive insect
Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis
Calculation method: heating (power), chilling
Lower threshold: 53 degrees Fahrenheit
Upper threshold: 120 degrees Fahrenheit
Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date
Starting/BIOFIX date: 11 15
Ending date: 7 0
Model validation status: under development - use with caution
Region of known use: potential for use in US
==============================EVENTS TABLE================================
1. 100 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: Urban places: 15.8%, open fields: 39% mortality
2. 300 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 53% (urban) to 82% (open)
3. 500 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 74% (urban) to 95% (open)
4. 750 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 87% (urban) to 98.9% (open)
5. 1000 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 94% (urban) to 99.8% (open)
6. 1250 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 97% (urban) to 99.95% (open)
7. 1500 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 98.6% (urban) to 99.99% (open)
8. 1750 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 99.3% (urban) to 99.998% or 2 out of 100,000 survive (open)
9. 2000 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 99.7% (urban) to 99.9995% or 5 out of 1 million survive (open)
10. 2500 Chilling DDs after Nov 15: 99.92% (urban) to 99.99998% or 2 out of 10 million survive (open)
==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================
Weather station: 2017 E9643 APRSWXNET EW9643 Tucson AZ Lat32.3642 Long:-110.9611 Elev:2837
mn day max min precip DD53 CUMDD53 event
-- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- -------
Forecast using: 1910 E9643 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES Lat32.3642 Long-110.9611 DD50
spotted wing Drosoph overwint mortal model - OSU OIPMC model analysis Location: 2017 E9643 EW9643 Tucson AZ 1910 E9643 PRISM_rev1_4km 2007-2016 AVERAGES