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invasive insect model of OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 |
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Output from uspest.org/wea invasive insect degree-day/phenology model program: Heat Units and predictions of key events from daily weather data
==============================MODEL INPUTS================================ Model species/general links: spotted wing Drosophila [fruit] Type: invasive insect Model source/other links: OSU OIPMC model analysis vers. 3.0 Calculation method: single sine Lower threshold: 50 degrees Fahrenheit Upper threshold: 88 degrees Fahrenheit Directions for starting/BIOFIX: calendar date No starting/BIOFIX date, set to: default date 1 1 Ending date: 9 15 Model validation status: partly validated-has been compared to 2 years of field data in PNW Region of known use: potential for use in US ==============================EVENTS TABLE================================ 1. 261 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by ow females 2. 510 DDs after Jan 1: Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 3. 565 DDs after Jan 1: 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 4. 755 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 1st gen 5. 995 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6. 1249 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7. 1489 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 8. 1743 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 9. 1983 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 10. 2237 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 11. 2477 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 12. 2731 DDs after Jan 1: Peak adult emerge 5th gen; max 8+ gens. 13. 2971 DDs after Jan 1: Peak egg laying by 5th gen females; max 9+ gens. ==============================MODEL OUTPUT================================ Weather station: 2018 KSLE METAR Salem: McNary Field OR Lat:44.9078 Long:-122.9950 Elev:210 mn day max min precip DD50 CUMDD50 event -- --- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ------- 1 1 46.40 26.60 0.00 0.00 0.0 * START * 1 2 46.40 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 3 46.90 33.80 0.00 0.00 0.0 1 4 46.90 33.80 0.13 0.00 0.0 1 5 54.00 39.20 0.46 0.91 0.9 1 6 51.80 35.60 1.12 0.26 1.2 1 7 48.20 37.40 0.01 0.00 1.2 1 8 45.00 35.60 0.41 0.00 1.2 1 9 51.80 42.10 0.23 0.34 1.5 1 10 50.00 42.10 0.09 0.00 1.5 1 11 55.90 48.20 0.97 2.43 3.9 1 12 55.90 48.90 0.64 2.59 6.5 1 13 60.80 37.90 0.00 3.33 9.8 1 14 60.80 35.10 0.00 3.12 13.0 1 15 57.20 35.10 0.18 1.81 14.8 1 16 55.90 42.10 0.02 1.72 16.5 1 17 63.00 41.00 0.91 4.56 21.0 1 18 51.80 42.10 0.50 0.34 21.4 1 19 48.20 41.00 0.04 0.00 21.4 1 20 48.90 41.00 0.01 0.00 21.4 1 21 51.80 41.00 0.09 0.32 21.7 1 22 51.80 37.40 0.24 0.27 22.0 1 23 52.00 39.20 1.28 0.34 22.3 1 24 52.00 37.90 0.32 0.32 22.6 1 25 46.90 37.00 0.33 0.00 22.6 1 26 46.90 39.00 0.23 0.00 22.6 1 27 53.60 42.80 0.30 0.92 23.6 1 28 62.60 48.00 0.00 5.62 29.2 1 29 57.20 46.00 0.57 2.66 31.8 1 30 52.00 39.00 0.47 0.34 32.2 1 31 48.90 37.40 0.00 0.00 32.2 2 1 53.60 39.20 0.04 0.78 33.0 2 2 61.00 42.80 0.01 3.91 36.9 2 3 60.80 44.60 0.01 4.07 40.9 2 4 61.00 44.10 0.00 4.09 45.0 2 5 60.80 37.00 0.00 3.25 48.3 2 6 57.90 33.80 0.00 1.99 50.3 2 7 55.40 35.10 0.00 1.22 51.5 2 8 57.90 35.60 0.00 2.08 53.6 2 9 52.00 42.10 0.00 0.39 53.9 2 10 50.00 35.10 0.00 0.00 53.9 2 11 48.20 33.80 0.02 0.00 53.9 2 12 50.00 28.90 0.00 0.00 53.9 2 13 51.80 23.00 0.18 0.19 54.1 2 14 51.80 35.10 0.09 0.25 54.4 2 15 52.00 35.60 0.00 0.30 54.7 2 16 50.00 41.00 0.07 0.00 54.7 2 17 53.60 42.10 0.05 0.88 55.6 2 18 44.60 33.10 0.25 0.00 55.6 2 19 41.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 55.6 2 20 39.90 28.90 0.18 0.00 55.6 2 21 41.00 28.40 0.05 0.00 55.6 2 22 41.00 27.00 0.01 0.00 55.6 2 23 41.00 21.00 0.09 0.00 55.6 2 24 48.90 35.60 0.10 0.00 55.6 2 25 46.40 35.10 0.47 0.00 55.6 2 26 48.20 28.90 0.00 0.00 55.6 2 27 46.90 30.20 0.00 0.00 55.6 2 28 46.40 41.00 0.61 0.00 55.6 3 1 46.40 37.40 0.12 0.00 55.6 3 2 51.80 35.60 0.03 0.26 55.8 3 3 50.00 30.20 0.00 0.00 55.8 3 4 50.00 28.40 0.01 0.00 55.8 3 5 55.40 37.00 0.11 1.28 57.1 3 6 55.90 30.00 0.00 1.22 58.3 3 7 52.00 33.80 0.00 0.28 58.6 3 8 55.40 39.00 0.29 1.36 60.0 3 9 53.60 35.60 0.00 0.70 60.7 3 10 61.00 30.20 0.01 2.90 63.6 3 11 66.90 37.40 0.00 5.82 69.4 3 12 72.00 35.60 0.00 7.82 77.2 3 13 57.20 44.60 0.58 2.48 79.7 3 14 55.40 36.00 0.89 1.25 81.0 3 15 53.60 35.60 0.04 0.70 81.7 3 16 54.00 34.00 0.02 0.78 82.4 3 17 51.10 39.90 0.15 0.15 82.6 3 18 55.40 35.10 0.08 1.22 83.8 3 19 57.20 32.00 0.00 1.68 85.5 3 20 61.00 28.00 0.00 2.80 88.3 3 21 57.20 37.40 0.60 1.92 90.2 3 22 48.90 35.60 0.77 0.00 90.2 3 23 42.80 35.10 4.56 0.00 90.2 3 24 46.40 35.60 0.13 0.00 90.2 3 25 53.60 35.10 0.01 0.69 90.9 3 26 51.80 35.10 0.01 0.25 91.1 3 27 59.00 44.60 0.00 3.26 94.4 3 28 61.00 39.20 0.00 3.52 97.9 3 29 61.00 35.60 0.00 3.23 101.1 3 30 62.60 37.00 0.00 3.97 105.1 3 31 64.40 42.10 0.00 5.33 110.4 4 1 52.00 35.10 0.06 0.30 110.7 4 2 53.60 35.10 0.00 0.69 111.4 4 3 57.20 30.00 0.03 1.62 113.0 4 4 64.40 46.00 0.04 6.01 119.1 4 5 55.40 48.00 0.28 2.15 121.2 4 6 72.00 53.60 0.12 12.80 134.0 4 7 62.60 48.00 2.02 5.62 139.6 4 8 55.40 43.00 0.29 1.59 141.2 4 9 66.20 39.20 0.00 5.73 147.0 4 10 63.00 48.20 0.21 5.87 152.8 4 11 57.90 41.00 0.40 2.42 155.2 4 12 52.00 39.20 0.30 0.34 155.6 4 13 55.90 46.00 0.01 2.08 157.7 4 14 59.00 48.00 0.35 3.87 161.5 4 15 51.80 42.10 0.74 0.34 161.9 4 16 50.00 41.00 0.12 0.00 161.9 4 17 55.40 42.10 0.06 1.53 163.4 4 18 60.80 41.00 0.00 3.61 167.0 4 19 68.00 35.60 0.00 6.09 173.1 4 20 68.00 37.00 0.00 6.25 179.3 4 21 63.00 44.10 0.00 5.00 184.3 4 22 64.90 37.40 0.00 4.97 189.3 4 23 78.80 39.00 0.00 11.43 200.7 4 24 84.20 39.00 0.00 13.96 214.7 4 25 82.40 46.40 0.00 14.89 229.6 4 26 77.00 48.20 0.00 12.79 242.4 4 27 53.60 50.00 0.14 1.80 244.2 4 28 62.60 44.10 0.11 4.81 249.0 4 29 60.80 48.00 0.01 4.74 253.7 4 30 57.20 46.00 0.00 2.66 256.4 5 1 59.00 45.00 0.00 3.32 259.7 5 2 73.40 39.00 0.00 8.93 268.7 1st egg laying by ow females 5 3 75.90 46.00 0.00 11.58 280.2 5 4 66.90 50.00 0.00 8.45 288.7 5 5 73.90 50.00 0.05 11.95 300.6 5 6 71.60 52.00 0.04 11.80 312.4 5 7 75.20 51.80 0.00 13.50 325.9 5 8 77.00 44.60 0.09 11.75 337.7 5 9 68.00 48.00 0.00 8.27 346.0 5 10 64.90 46.90 0.01 6.46 352.4 5 11 66.90 46.40 0.00 7.30 359.7 5 12 81.00 48.20 0.00 14.78 374.5 5 13 93.00 50.00 0.00 20.77 395.3 5 14 87.80 50.00 0.00 18.90 414.2 5 15 73.40 50.00 0.00 11.70 425.9 5 16 68.00 53.60 0.00 10.80 436.7 5 17 70.00 50.00 0.00 10.00 446.7 5 18 70.00 46.40 0.00 8.81 455.5 5 19 68.00 51.10 0.00 9.55 465.0 5 20 71.60 46.40 0.00 9.59 474.6 5 21 75.90 44.60 0.00 11.22 485.8 5 22 84.90 50.00 0.00 17.45 503.3 5 23 77.00 53.10 0.00 15.05 518.3 Peak (ca. 50%) egg laying by ow females; 1st adult emerge 1st gen 5 24 73.40 55.40 0.00 14.40 532.7 5 25 68.00 52.00 0.00 10.00 542.7 5 26 69.80 44.10 0.00 8.18 550.9 5 27 79.00 44.60 0.00 12.72 563.6 5 28 75.90 48.20 0.00 12.25 575.9 1st egg laying by 1st gen females 5 29 69.80 46.90 0.00 8.84 584.7 5 30 69.80 39.20 0.00 7.33 592.0 5 31 64.40 46.40 0.02 6.10 598.1 6 1 73.90 42.80 0.00 9.86 608.0 6 2 84.20 46.00 0.00 15.65 623.6 6 3 73.90 51.10 0.00 12.50 636.1 6 4 72.00 51.80 0.00 11.90 648.0 6 5 73.90 43.00 0.00 9.90 657.9 6 6 78.80 46.00 0.00 13.00 670.9 6 7 72.00 52.00 0.00 12.00 682.9 6 8 69.80 51.80 0.19 10.80 693.7 6 9 63.00 48.20 0.04 5.87 699.6 6 10 57.90 48.20 0.32 3.39 703.0 6 11 72.00 51.80 0.01 11.90 714.9 6 12 81.00 46.00 0.00 14.08 729.0 6 13 64.90 53.10 0.01 9.00 738.0 6 14 69.80 55.00 0.00 12.40 750.4 6 15 72.00 55.00 0.00 13.50 763.9 Peak adult emerge 1st gen 6 16 79.00 51.80 0.00 15.40 779.3 6 17 91.40 53.10 0.00 21.82 801.1 6 18 84.90 57.00 0.00 20.95 822.0 6 19 91.90 53.10 0.00 21.97 844.0 6 20 87.80 60.10 0.00 23.95 868.0 6 21 75.90 59.00 0.00 17.45 885.4 6 22 78.80 59.00 0.00 18.90 904.3 6 23 78.80 59.00 0.00 18.90 923.2 6 24 91.40 55.40 0.00 22.95 946.2 6 25 69.80 55.00 0.00 12.40 958.6 6 26 75.80 46.40 0.00 11.64 970.2 Px 6 27 77.30 53.20 0.00 15.25 985.5 Px Pn 6 28 76.50 59.60 0.00 18.05 1003.5 Px Pn Peak egg laying by 1st gen females; max 2+ gens. 6 29 82.90 62.60 0.00 22.75 1026.3 6 30 84.90 53.10 0.00 19.00 1045.3 7 1 81.00 55.40 0.00 18.20 1063.5 7 2 72.00 51.10 0.00 11.55 1075.0 7 3 78.80 46.00 0.00 13.00 1088.0 7 4 75.90 57.20 0.00 16.55 1104.6 7 5 88.00 53.10 0.00 20.55 1125.1 7 6 80.60 55.00 0.00 17.80 1142.9 7 7 82.40 51.80 0.00 17.10 1160.0 7 8 86.00 53.60 0.00 19.80 1179.8 7 9 70.00 51.80 0.00 10.90 1190.7 7 10 81.00 55.00 0.00 18.00 1208.7 7 11 90.00 55.40 0.00 22.49 1231.2 7 12 99.00 63.00 0.00 28.33 1259.5 Peak adult emerge 2nd gen; max 3+ gens. 7 13 95.00 60.80 0.00 26.53 1286.1 7 14 93.90 59.00 0.00 25.40 1311.5 7 15 99.00 59.00 0.00 26.48 1337.9 7 16 98.60 60.80 0.00 27.24 1365.2 7 17 91.40 60.10 0.00 25.27 1390.5 7 18 87.80 57.20 0.00 22.50 1413.0 7 19 75.90 57.00 0.00 16.45 1429.4 7 20 81.00 50.00 0.00 15.50 1444.9 7 21 82.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 1461.4 7 22 93.20 53.10 0.00 22.34 1483.7 7 23 95.00 57.20 0.00 24.80 1508.5 Peak egg laying by 2nd gen females; max 4+ gens. 7 24 97.00 57.20 0.00 25.24 1533.7 7 25 98.60 57.20 0.00 25.56 1559.3 7 26 98.60 60.10 0.00 26.92 1586.2 7 27 91.90 57.20 0.00 23.99 1610.2 7 28 91.90 53.60 0.00 22.22 1632.4 7 29 99.00 60.10 0.00 26.99 1659.4 7 30 91.90 62.10 0.00 26.39 1685.8 7 31 91.90 57.00 0.00 23.89 1709.7 8 1 89.60 55.40 0.00 22.35 1732.0 8 2 75.20 55.00 0.00 15.10 1747.1 Peak adult emerge 3rd gen; max 5 gens. 8 3 78.80 60.10 0.00 19.45 1766.6 8 4 86.00 55.00 0.00 20.50 1787.1 8 5 90.00 53.60 0.00 21.60 1808.7 8 6 91.40 57.20 0.00 23.84 1832.5 8 7 93.90 59.00 0.00 25.40 1857.9 8 8 93.90 62.10 0.00 26.90 1884.8 8 9 96.80 57.00 0.00 25.10 1909.9 8 10 91.40 60.10 0.00 25.27 1935.2 8 11 78.10 59.00 0.00 18.55 1953.8 8 12 81.00 55.90 0.00 18.45 1972.2 8 13 91.90 57.00 0.00 23.89 1996.1 Peak egg laying by 3rd gen females; max 6+ gens. 8 14 91.90 57.20 0.00 23.99 2020.1 8 15 88.00 57.00 0.00 22.50 2042.6 8 16 84.20 57.00 0.00 20.60 2063.2 8 17 82.40 50.00 0.00 16.20 2079.4 8 18 88.00 50.00 0.00 19.00 2098.4 8 19 88.00 55.00 0.00 21.50 2119.9 8 20 82.40 55.00 0.00 18.70 2138.6 8 21 95.00 57.20 0.00 24.80 2163.4 8 22 93.20 55.40 0.00 23.47 2186.9 8 23 70.00 53.10 0.00 11.55 2198.4 8 24 73.40 53.10 0.00 13.25 2211.7 8 25 75.20 46.40 0.00 11.35 2223.0 8 26 70.00 60.10 0.00 15.05 2238.1 Peak adult emerge 4th gen; max 6+ gens. 8 27 78.10 60.10 0.00 19.10 2257.2 8 28 90.00 51.10 0.00 20.36 2277.5 8 29 86.00 53.10 0.00 19.55 2297.1 8 30 75.00 54.00 0.00 14.50 2311.6 8 31 80.10 57.00 0.00 18.55 2330.1 9 1 75.90 50.00 0.00 12.95 2343.1 9 2 82.90 50.00 0.00 16.45 2359.5 9 3 80.60 53.10 0.00 16.85 2376.4 9 4 82.90 46.00 0.00 15.01 2391.4 9 5 89.60 51.80 0.00 20.56 2411.9 9 6 88.00 51.10 0.00 19.55 2431.5 9 7 84.20 50.00 0.00 17.10 2448.6 9 8 77.00 55.40 0.00 16.20 2464.8 9 9 80.60 48.00 0.00 14.51 2479.3 Peak egg laying by 4th gen females; max 7+ gens. 9 10 75.90 57.20 0.01 16.55 2495.8 9 11 69.80 51.80 0.06 10.80 2506.6 9 12 69.10 50.00 0.03 9.55 2516.2 9 13 69.80 48.20 0.02 9.22 2525.4 9 14 72.00 44.60 0.00 9.34 2534.8 9 15 68.00 46.00 0.11 7.74 2542.5 Extended Seasonal Forecast: NOAA NMME 7-month 1910 KSLE PRISM_rev1_4km 2012-2021